Threats by Axis of Resistance Organizations amid Tensions between the United States and Iran

Highlights

• Amid the wave of protests in Iran and the exchange of threats between Iran, the United States, and Israel, members of the Axis of Resistance issued statements and threats, and some were reportedly taking steps to prepare for a possible confrontation.
• It is likely that, based on statements by Axis members and their conduct during the 12-day Israel-Iran war, a direct confrontation between Iran and the United States would lead to attacks on American interests and assets in the Middle East, and possibly on targets in Israel as well.
• In the ITIC’s assessment, the scope and intensity of the responses by Axis members will be influenced, among other factors, by the nature of the American attack and the targets struck. If the attack directly threatens the survival of the regime, particularly if it involves the killing of the Supreme Leader, the likelihood of a response by Axis members will be higher. If only military and security targets are attacked and there is no immediate threat to the regime’s survival, some Axis members may choose not to respond or may respond only symbolically.
• However, in our understanding, the considerations of Axis members are not uniform:
• Hezbollah, as the organization with the highest commitment to Iran, is liable to suffer the most significant response from Israel if it decides to attack Israel directly.
• The Shiite militias in Iraq are less committed than Hezbollah and are subject to various pressures, a fact that will affect their judgment of whether to attack American and Israeli targets.
• It seems that the Houthis, who attacked Israel and other targets in the region during the war against Hamas and Israel’s campaigns against Hezbollah and Iran, are the party that is most likely to react against Israel, and the deterrence and response to them is limited.

Background

• On December 28, 2025, a widespread wave of protests erupted across Iran due to the worsening economic crisis in the country, escalating to direct challenges to the regime. The protests quickly spread to numerous locations in Iran, and clashes were recorded between protesters and Iranian security forces. In response, the Iranian regime implemented severe preventive and repressive measures against the protesters, resulting in numerous casualties and arrests (New York Times, January 19, 2026; Sky News, January 19, 2026).
• As a result of these developments, US President Donald Trump stated that “if Iran shoots and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue” (Donald Trump’s Truth Social account, January 2, 2026). Several days later, Trump said the United States was considering “very strong options,” including possible military intervention. Concurrently, the United States deployed significant forces to the Middle East and held discussions with its regional allies. Subsequently, the United States initiated negotiations with Iran in an attempt to prevent escalation, while continuing to deploy forces to the Middle East (Wall Street Journal, January 11, 2026; Reuters, January 23, 2026; BBC, January 29, 2026; The Guardian, February 3, 2026).
• Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared that a war with Iran would become a regional war (Iran International, February 1, 2026).
• Khamenei accused the United States and Israel of instigating the protests as part of a long-term American strategy aimed at weakening the Iranian regime from within (Reuters, January 2, 2026; January 21, 2026). In addition, Iranian officials stated that they would not bow to US declarations and threatened that an American attack would be met with an “appropriate response” against American interests in the Middle East, as well as directly against Israel (Reuters, January 9, 10, 15, 2026; Al Jazeera, January 10, 2026; AP, January 17, 2026; The Guardian, January 20, 2026; Ali Shamkhani’s X account, January 28, 2026).

Actions and Statements by Members of the Axis of Resistance

• Amid the protests and the exchange of threats between Iran, the United States, and Israel, Axis members also issued statements and threats, and some reportedly took steps to prepare for confrontation. Similar to their statements during and after the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025, threats were made regarding attacks against American interests and assets in the Middle East and within Israel. During the June 2025 confrontation, the IDF reported the launch of approximately 40 drones by pro-Iranian militias in Iraq toward Israel, and the launch of two to three ballistic missiles by the Houthis.^[1] It should be noted that Hezbollah refrained from attacking Israel. Therefore, it is likely that in the event of a direct confrontation between Iran and the United States, American interests and assets in the Middle East would be attacked by Axis members, and possibly also targets in Israel. However, during the June 2025 war with Iran, the Iranian regime did not perceive an existential threat to its survival, in contrast to the current American threat to target regime leadership in the event of direct war between the United States and Iran. In a scenario involving harm to Iranian regime leaders, the proxies’ commitment to respond would likely be greater.

Hezbollah

• Hezbollah, as a central actor in the Axis of Resistance, is committed to Iran. The results of the campaign it conducted against Israel, during which its operational capabilities were damaged, its ongoing attempts to rebuild these capabilities, and concerns about a significant Israeli response should it choose to attack Israel, will constitute major considerations in its decision-making regarding action against Israel if Iran is attacked.
• Following the November 2024 ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel, and amid Lebanese government efforts to impose its authority across Lebanon, there is significant internal disagreement in Lebanon regarding the organization’s potential participation in a campaign alongside Iran and the risk this poses to Lebanon. For example, on January 28, 2026, it was reported that intensive contacts were taking place among Lebanon’s leadership in an attempt to prevent Lebanon from being dragged into a regional war. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun clarified that Lebanon would not serve as an arena or infrastructure for assisting Iran, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri acted vis-à-vis Hezbollah in an attempt to contain the situation and prevent dragging the Shiite community into a “destructive adventure.” However, according to sources, these efforts have limited chances of success, since the organization’s decisions are primarily subject to directives from Iran’s Supreme Leader. The report also claimed that Hezbollah had lost a significant portion of its military capabilities and that if instructed by Tehran to intervene, the organization would perceive it as an existential war (Nidaa al-Watan, January 28, 2026).
• Nevertheless, Hezbollah maintains ambiguity regarding its possible involvement in the event of a regional confrontation with Iran, while hinting at preparations for such a confrontation if it occurs.
• The following are selected statements by Hezbollah and affiliated figures:
  • On January 17, 2026, Hezbollah secretary-general Naim Qassem delivered a speech accusing the United States and Israel of an ongoing attempt to overthrow Iran from within through sanctions, chaos, and exploitation of economic protests, after failing for more than four decades to subdue Iran through military and political means. According to him, “American and Israeli agents” were operating in Iranian streets to escalate violence, but recent mass demonstrations supporting the regime demonstrated the people’s unity around Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (Al-Manar, January 17, 2026).
  • Hassan Izz al-Din, a member of the Hezbollah faction in the parliament, warned that any American attack on Iran would lead to a large-scale regional escalation and create an explosive situation whose consequences could not be foreseen. He accused the United States of acting aggressively and disregarding international law, claiming that it was acting with bullying and force but would not achieve its goals. He stressed Iran’s resilience and its ability to cope with pressure and crises. He presented Iran as a central anchor of the “resistance” axis and as the protector of the Shiite community and the oppressed peoples in the region (Balaa Media Telegram channel, January 10, 2026).
  • Hezbollah praised the “marches of millions” in favor of the regime in Iran, which it said reflected the people’s support for the regime, and accused the United States and Israel of trying to destabilize internal stability and overthrow the Islamic Republic. The organization stressed its opposition to any foreign interference in Iran’s internal affairs (Telegram channel of Hezbollah’s combat media arm, January 13, 2026).
  • A “source close to Hezbollah” said on January 14, 2026, that diplomats had asked the organization for assurances that it would not take any action if Iran was attacked, amid US threats of a possible attack. According to the source, Hezbollah did not make any such promises (Al-Nashra, January 14, 2026). Meanwhile, “officials in the Lebanese presidency” said that Hezbollah promised not to be dragged into a confrontation in the event of an American-Israeli attack against Iran, and that it would adopt a line similar to the one it adopted in the 12-day war in June 2025 – refraining from involvement in the fighting outside Lebanese territory (Al-Anbaa, January 14, 2026).
  • Hezbollah’s faction in the Lebanese parliament accused the United States of a hegemonic policy that threatens the sovereignty of the countries of the region and praised the resistance of Iran and its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the face of American-Israeli pressure (Hezbollah’s faction website, January 22, 2026).
  • In another speech delivered on January 26, 2026, Naim Qassem clearly sided with Iran in preparation for a possible campaign but did not explicitly threaten a direct response against the United States or Israel. In his speech, he claimed that “when Trump or his ilk” threaten to assassinate Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, they are in fact threatening millions, and even tens of millions, and that it is “our collective responsibility” to stand up to this threat and prepare for it. However, he stressed that Hezbollah would decide whether to intervene in accordance with “the circumstances of the time and the battlefield” (Al-Manar, January 26, 2026).

The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq

• In addition to the threats issued by pro-Iranian militias in Iraq toward the United States and Israel, they also acted to assist Iran in suppressing the protests. On January 15, 2026, it was reported, citing “a European military source and an Iraqi security source,” that approximately 5,000 Iraqi militia fighters had entered Iran in recent weeks through two border crossings in order to assist the regime in suppressing the protests. It was also reported that 800 “Shiite fighters” entered Iran under the cover of pilgrimage to assist in suppressing the protests. According to a European military assessment, the fighters belong to the militias of Kata’ib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba, Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, and the Badr Organization, operating within the framework of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). According to the assessment, the use of non-Iranian fighters constitutes an additional indication of the regime’s fragility and determination to maintain its rule despite the high human cost of the protests thus far (CNN, January 15, 2026).
• As noted, the militias also issued several statements regarding the developments in Iran and the American threats against it:
  • Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, secretary-general of Kata’ib Hezbollah, clarified to the Iranian regime and its leader, Ali Khamenei, that the militia stands alongside them in the face of protests against the regime. He added that the “head of the Front of Falsehood” continues preparing to attack Tehran, and therefore, the “religious and moral duty” requires standing alongside the Iranian people. Al-Hamidawi also warned the United States that “war against Iran is not a picnic – once the fire is ignited, it will not be extinguished” (Kata’ib Hezbollah Telegram channel, January 12, 2026).
  • A “prominent militia leader in Iraq” stated that Iraq would take part in any action imposed on the Axis of Resistance and would act based on the “unity of purpose against the American occupation and the Israeli entity.” According to him, what is occurring in Iran is part of an American-Israeli effort intended to “ignite Iran’s internal situation.” The militia leader emphasized that attempts to weaken the regime constitute a “lost gamble” and that Iran is a resilient state (Al-Akhbar, January 12, 2026).
  • The Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada militia also declared its “full support for the Camp of Truth, represented by the Islamic Republic, against the Camp of Evil and Hegemony led by the American-Zionist occupation with all its tools, media outlets, and servants.” They called on Iraqi authorities to prevent the use of Iraqi airspace to attack a neighboring Muslim country (Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada Telegram channel, January 16, 2026).
  • “Sources within Kata’ib Hezbollah” stated that American military bases in Iraq and the region would become targets if the United States launched military action against Iran. Additionally, a “senior militia official” stated that the missiles and drones of the “resistance” are ready, confirming that the militia is part of the conflict between the United States and Iran and would not remain neutral. He noted that the militia refrained from involvement in the 12-day war in June 2025 following instructions from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but added that “the current situation is completely different” (Shafaq News, January 16, 2026).
  • Kata’ib Hezbollah secretary-general Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi called for preparation for an “all-out war to support Iran.” He claimed that “forces of deception – the Zionists and their allies” are assembling to attempt to subdue Iran and even destroy it and erase “all moral and ethical principles”. He threatened that the war “will not be a picnic. Rather, you will taste the most bitter forms of death, and nothing of you will remain in our region.” Al-Hamidawi also called on the “mujahideen” to prepare for this confrontation, especially if it is declared jihad, and to be ready for “martyrdom operations,” i.e., suicide attacks (Kata’ib Hezbollah Telegram channel, January 25, 2026). Subsequently, documentation was published showing al-Hamidawi and additional volunteers signing forms declaring their willingness to carry out suicide attacks in support of Iran (Sabereen News, January 26-27, 2026).

      
Al-Hamidawi, followed by many volunteers, sign the forms (Kata’ib Hezbollah Telegram channel, January 26-27, 2026)

• • The Badr Organization pledged to support Iran in the event of war with the United States and Israel. A statement by the organization’s Ideological Guidance Office said that this would be a “decisive battle between the Front of Truth and the Front of Falsehood, in which all believers will rise against all supporters of polytheism, leaving no room for neutrality, hesitation, or silence.” Firas al-Yasser, a member of Harakat al-Nujaba’s political bureau, said that any attack against Iran would drag the region into a broader confrontation involving Gulf states and Iraq, in which the Iranian response would be exceptional both in nature and in the selection of targets (Shafaq News, January 26, 2026).
  • The Brigades of Promise of Truth – Arabian Peninsula, considered a front organization of Kata’ib Hezbollah, threatened to attack American interests as a result of “the terrorist policy of the American administration and its proxies in the region,” which allegedly aims to “subjugate all who oppose their malicious methods designed to cause damage, deprive peoples of their will, and plunder their wealth.” Among other things, they threatened to attack American interests in the region, especially the flow of oil from the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf and American energy sources in the Arabian Peninsula, as well as American embassies (Brigades of Promise of Truth – Arabian Peninsula Telegram channel, January 26, 2026).
  • In a related context, Saraya Awliya al-Dam, considered a front militia with ties to Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, released a video allegedly documenting an underground site where its operatives were transporting missiles, along with images of senior Axis of Resistance figures over the years (Saraya Awliya al-Dam Telegram channel, January 31, 2026). On January 16, 2026, the organization declared its readiness to operate alongside Iran if it were attacked.
  • Akram al-Kaabi, secretary-general of Harakat al-Nujaba, stated that “the Iraqi people, together with the noble and zealous tribes, will not stand idly by while their friends who stood by them in their distress and shed blood on their land in the war against terrorism and disbelief are threatened.” He emphasized that “any American-Zionist military attack on Iran means that all of West Asia will boil beneath your soldiers and bases, so prepare your graves. If the battle begins, those who started it will not end it; rather, revenge will pass from generation to generation, expanding until it reaches your countries and your homes, and no one will escape it” (Harakat al-Nujaba Telegram channel, January 28, 2026).

    
Supporters of the militias at a demonstration in support of Iran in Baghdad (Sabereen News Telegram channel, January 17, 2026)

• • Despite these threats, the Shiite militias in Iraq are under heavy pressure from the United States and are involved in efforts to form a new government in Iraq. Participation in a regional campaign could harm their status and capabilities in Iraq. However, the likelihood of their participation in a regional confrontation would increase if the Iranian regime’s survival were significantly threatened.

The Houthis

• Since the beginning of the protests in Iran, reports have indicated that the Houthis view the protests and potential escalation resulting from them as developments that could significantly harm the organization and that preparations must be made accordingly. For example, on January 6, 2026, it was reported, citing “knowledgeable Yemeni security sources,” that secret high-level coordination talks were conducted between senior field officers from the IRGC Qods Force and senior Houthi military and security officials to discuss responses to the possibility of a direct Israeli-American attack against Tehran. According to the sources, the meetings led to operational conclusions indicating that the Axis of Resistance is transitioning from a stage of “verbal warning” to actual preparedness, including the establishment of joint monitoring rooms. It was noted that the coordination talks began amid assessments that the window of opportunity to prevent escalation is narrowing and that, prior to or alongside an attack on Iran, attempts would be made to neutralize Iran’s proxies, particularly Hezbollah, in order to prevent them from acting. According to the report, in addition to the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the possibility of expanding operations to vital points in the Horn of Africa was discussed, while avoiding direct responsibility and maintaining plausible deniability (Aram News, January 6, 2026).
• Another report on January 14, 2026, stated that the Houthis are in a state of “panic and deep confusion” in light of the protests in Iran. According to the report, there is concern among the Houthis regarding the possible implications of developments in Iran for the organization’s political and security future. “Sources close to the Houthis” claimed that strict directives were issued to raise security readiness to the highest level and increase deployments in main streets and around government and security institutions. It was also reported that senior Houthi officials have not appeared in public for months since the ceasefire in the regional conflict, apparently due to continued fears of potential attacks (Asharq al-Awsat, January 14, 2026).
• Several Houthi statements were also published regarding developments in Iran, including threats to resume attacks against vessels near Yemen, especially American ships:
  • Houthi movement leader Abd al-Malik al-Houthi emphasized that “what the enemies did in the Islamic Republic of Iran is an American-Israeli attack carried out through criminal gangs.” According to him, the Americans “send criminal gangs to be the spearhead of these problems, ultimately aiming to control Iran” (Saba, January 15, 2026).
  • Muhammad al-Farah, a member of the Houthi political bureau, claimed that events in Iran represent a “fabricated revolution led by Israel and sponsored by the United States.” According to him, Iran is paying the price for opposing “American hegemony and Israeli aggression,” and for standing alongside oppressed peoples, primarily “Palestine.” He added that any attack against Iran would pave the way for attacks against other Islamic regimes (Al-Mayadeen, January 14, 2026).
  • “Houthi sources” claimed that American escalation against Iran would be perceived by the Houthis as part of American support for Israel, thereby obligating them to become “part of the new regional equation.” They added that Sana’a may increase its level of support for Tehran, ranging from support for Iran’s right to defend itself to participation in confrontation within the framework of deterring “new American aggression.” In this context, it was noted that the Houthis raised their alert level and conducted missile tests in the Red Sea (Al-Akhbar, January 15, 2026).
  • In another threatening statement, Muhammad al-Farah said that “any potential aggression” against Iran beyond the country’s borders would constitute “aggression against the entire Islamic nation and a blatant violation of state sovereignty and international law.” He added that harming Iran is perceived as a “prelude to unlimited escalation whose consequences will not stop at its borders but will expand throughout the region, similar to what followed the aggression against Afghanistan.” He expressed confidence in Iran’s and its allies’ ability to respond forcefully and emphasized that any confrontation would not be symbolic but could expand to include “the Israeli entity, American bases and warships, American interests, and American maritime routes” (Al-Mayadeen, January 26, 2026).
  • To reinforce threats regarding their intentions to respond against vessels in the event of an American attack on Iran, the Houthis published a video depicting the attack on the vessel Marlin Luanda by their forces on January 26, 2024. The video showed preparations for the attack, the weaponry used, and the resulting damage (Houthi Combat Information Telegram channel, January 26, 2026).

• • A “Houthi military source” threatened that the Houthis would not allow American vessels to approach the Red Sea and Arabian Sea due to the threat they pose to Houthi-controlled Yemen. The source added that Houthi forces raised their combat readiness to the highest level due to US activity in the region, particularly Washington’s announcement regarding the arrival of the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, which was previously attacked by the Houthis while stationed in the Red Sea (Al-Akhbar, January 28, 2026).

The Palestinians

Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), which belong to the Axis of Resistance, did not publicly address the US–Iran tensions. It can be assessed that the reason is their desire to avoid provoking tensions with the American administration, given their expectation that President Trump will exert pressure on Israel regarding the implementation of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip.

    
Cartoons by Palestinian cartoonist Alaa al-Laqta. Right: The title of the cartoon: Trump’s excuses. The right-wing target is Iran, and the excuse: demonstrations; in the center – Venezuela, and the excuse: drugs; and on the left – Greenland, and the pretext: national security (Alaa al-Laqta’s X account, January 10, 2026). Left: While the world’s eyes are on Greenland, Netanyahu’s eyes are on Iran (Palestine Online, January 26, 2026)

^[1] See the ITIC’s studies from June 16, 2025, “‘Resistance Axis’ Reactions to the Israeli-Iran Military Conflict”, and from July 4, 2025, “The ‘Resistance Axis’ and the Israel-Iran War”

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