The Power Groups in Syria after the Fall of the Assad Regime

Overview^[1]

• On November 27, 2024, armed groups opposing the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, led by the Islamist-jihadist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression against Syrian army forces and their allies in northwest Syria. Other groups, sponsored by Turkey, initiated the Operation Dawn of Liberation in the Aleppo area, while another coalition of rebel organizations took control of southern Syria. On December 8, 2024, the rebels occupied Damascus and overthrew the Assad regime.
• The campaign was managed by three umbrella groups: the al-Fatah al-Mubin Operations Room led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the pro-Turkish Syrian National Army and the Southern Operations Room. Each was made up of organizations, units and political entities with ideological, religious and ethnic differences and varying interests.
• Also to be taken into account are the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a militia led by Kurdish forces and supported by the United States, whose objective is to strengthen Kurdish control in northern Syria and which is currently in conflict with the new power structures in Syria.
• The factions which have taken control in Syria have yet to issue official statements regarding Israel, even in light of IDF strikes on strategic facilities across Syria and the seizure of the buffer zone in the Golan Heights.
• Despite the cooperation of revolutionary forces in overthrowing Assad’s regime and statements from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani) about his desire to establish a government representing all Syrians, the large number of groups and conflicting interests are likely to lead to internal conflicts and exacerbate the chaos within Syria. However, if the parties learn from mistakes made in other parts of the Middle East after the overthrow of authoritarian regimes, such as Iraq and Libya, and manage to find an inclusive formula which meets the interests of the various groups and communities, in ITIC assessment, in the long term opportunities exist for stabilization in Syria.

The Rebel Attack on the Assad Regime^[2]

• On November 27, 2024, a coalition of Syrian organizations opposing the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression against the Syrian army and its allies. Forces led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, operating under the al-Fatah al-Mubin joint operations room, took control of Aleppo, Hama and Homs within days after the withdrawal of regime forces.
• On November 30, 2024, rebel groups sponsored by Turkey launched Operation Dawn of Liberation. Led by the Syrian National Army (SNA), the operation targeted Syrian regime forces, loyalist militias and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-Arab militia supported by the United States.
• On December 6, 2024, the Southern Operations Room, composed of rebel groups in the south of the country and in the Druze mountain region, began an uprising in the southern provinces, completing the takeover of Daraa, Quneitra and al-Suwayda within 24 hours.
• During the night of December 7, 2024, the rebels occupied Damascus and took control of its airport, radio and television stations, and the presidential palace. The Syrian ministry of defense then announced the fall of Assad’s regime, while Assad was granted political asylum in Russia. On December 10, 2024, a temporary government of revolutionary forces was declared, to govern until March 1, 2025.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham

• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led Operation Deterrence of Aggression and is currently considered as the most powerful group in Syria, is a Sunni Islamist-jihadist organization with a Syrian nationalist orientation. Its leader is Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, known as Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the former leader of al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria (Jabhat al-Nusra). Over the years, the organization has undergone numerous changes, including name changes, structural transformations and shifting alliances with local, regional and global power actors, which have also significantly influenced its ideology.

Organizational and ideological development

• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) was founded on the Jabhat al-Nusra organization, which was established at the beginning of the uprising against Assad’s regime in Syria in 2011, as part of the so-called Arab Spring, which was the source of its Salafi-jihadist ideological roots:^[3]
  • 2011: Al-Julani was sent to Syria with a team of six fighters under orders from Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State of Iraq, the al-Qaeda affiliate in Iraq, which served as an umbrella organization for all Salafi-jihadist groups in the country. Al-Baghdadi sought to exploit the Syrian uprising to establish a local force to promote the interests in Syria of Iraqi jihadist groups. In January 2012, al-Julani announced the establishment of Jabhat al-Nusra li-Ahl al-Sham (the Support Front for the People of the Levant) and declared war on Assad’s regime.
  • 2013-2016: Al-Baghdadi declared the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), merging the Islamic State of Iraq with Jabhat al-Nusra, a move which al-Julani regarded as detrimental to his efforts to build ties with Syrian rebel groups while concealing his jihadist ideology. In response, he pledged loyalty to al-Qaeda and its leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, who determined that Jabhat al-Nusra would serve as al-Qaeda’s local affiliate in Syria.
  • 2016-2017: Al-Julani severed ties with al-Qaeda and announced the establishment of Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (the Front for the Victory of the Levant). The objective of the move, ostensibly approved by al-Zawahiri, was to allow Jabhat al-Nusra to focus on fighting in Syria and merge with local Islamist groups which objected to ties with al-Qaeda.
  • From January 2017: Al-Julani announced the establishment of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which merged Jabhat Fatah al-Sham with four other prominent rebel organizations. He thereby demonstrated his ideological flexibility as he distanced himself from Salafi-jihadist ideology and moved closer to secular Turkey, which provided his allied Syrian rebel groups with financial and operational sponsorship.
• Since its establishment, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has become the dominant organization in the Turkish-sponsored enclave in the Idlib region of northwest Syria, as part of efforts to end the civil war.^[4] The organization established a civilian-administrative infrastructure under the supervision of the Syrian Salvation Government, which included the issuing of identity documents. Al-Julani, who worked to promote a moderate image, imposed a conservative form of Islam on Idlib province but did not actively enforce the Sharia, and allowed men and women to mix in public. He also reassured the Kurdish, Druze and Christian minorities living in areas under the organization’s control that they were integral and important parts of the Syrian state, pledged to protect their rights and in some cases even returned previously confiscated properties. However, the organization has also faced accusations of violating human and civil rights (The New York Times, December 2, 2024).
• Since the start of Operation Deterrence of Aggression and following the occupation of Damascus and the fall of Assad’s regime, al-Julani, who has resumed his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has consistently presented conciliatory and unifying messages in statements and interviews with international media:
  • In an interview with CNN before the occupation of Damascus, al-Julani stopped using his alias and introduced himself as Ahmed al-Sharaa. He stated that the goal was to establish a government based on institutions and a council elected by the Syrian people, emphasizing that religious minorities would continue to exist under rebel rule. He also denied that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was a terrorist organization, claiming the term was “an incorrect political label” and that he opposed some [sic] of the brutal tactics of other jihadist groups (CNN, December 6, 2024).
  • After the regime’s fall, al-Sharaa visited the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, emphasizing that “the state belongs to everyone” and that the victory was for all Syrians (Sham News Agency, December 8, 2024).
  • Interviewed by Sky News, he said foreign countries had no reason to fear the new government and Syria would not enter another war, as its people were exhausted by conflict. He added that removing Assad’s regime, the pro-Iranian militias and Hezbollah had provided the solution for Syria, and the country could now move toward development, reconstruction and stability (Sky News, December 10, 2024).
  • He said in a statement that the new government would work to dismantle the Assad regime’s security services and close “notorious prisons.” He also asserted that they were closely monitoring suspected chemical weapons sites and were working to secure them in coordination with international organizations (al-Ma’arak News Agency, December 11, 2024).

   
Right: Al-Julani in 2016 (al-Hadeel magazine, December 2, 2024). Left: Al-Julani, calling himself by his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, interviewed by CNN at the beginning of the attack (CNN in Arabic, December 6, 2024)

Order of battle

• In addition to its civil activities, in recent years Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has worked to improve its military capabilities, as seen by Operation Deterrence of Aggression. The organization established a military academy managed by Syrian army defectors and reformed its military structure, including the creation of a unified command and 12 brigades, half of which are combat units. Its order of battle is estimated at tens of thousands of fighters. Using 3D printers and other technologies, the organization has also begun developing weapons independently, including UAVs, guided missiles and artillery shells, alongside using weapons captured during fighting against Syrian forces and their allies. The organization also received weapons from other rebel organizations affiliated with Turkey and bought them on the black market. (Financial Times, December 5, 2024). According to “sources familiar with Ukraine’s military operations,” in the weeks before the attack on Assad’s forces, Ukrainian intelligence supplied HTS with approximately 150 suicide drones (FPV, “first person view” drones) and around 20 drone operators for purposes of training, in preparation for Operation Deterrence of Aggression, part of Ukraine’s effort to disrupt Russian activities in the Middle East (The Washington Post, December 10, 2024).
• In addition, units were established to conduct operations and raids behind enemy lines, including nighttime missions. The units, comprising hundreds of fighters armed with advanced precision weapons and prepared “to fight to the death,” were responsible for the nighttime maneuver that led to the capture of Aleppo on December 30, 2024 (Syria TV, September 23, 2020; The Spectator, November 30, 2024). One of HTS’s key military units is al-Asa’ib al-Hamra (the Red Headbands). Its fighters are trained for warfare behind enemy lines and specialize in “complex and dangerous missions” (al-Arabiya, December 5, 2024). The instructors were fighters from Russian-speaking countries such as Chechnya and Uzbekistan (al-Arabiya, December 5, 2024; al-Sharq, December 6, 2024).^[5]

• The al-Fatah al-Mubin Operations Room was launched in 2019 to manage and coordinate the military activities of rebel forces in Idlib, the rural areas of Aleppo, Latakia and Hama (al-Jazeera, November 30, 2024). During Operation Deterrence of Aggression a joint operations room called General Command – Military Operations Department was established, integrating al-Fatah al-Mubin with other rebel organizations operating in Idlib (International Monte Carlo website, December 2, 2024; al-Jazeera, December 5, 2024):
  • The National Liberation Front (al-Jabhat al Wataniya li Tahrir): Established in 2018 after the merger of 11 factions from the former Free Syrian Army, including the Liberation Army, Alawiat Safur al-Sham (Levant Falcon Brigades), and the Damascus Gathering. The Front is supported by Turkey and reportedly has approximately 30,000 operatives based in Idlib province.
  • Ahrar al-Sham (the Levant Freedom Movement): The organization was formed in 2011 when four Islamist organizations opposing the Assad regime merged to establish an Islamic State in Syria, operating primarily in the provinces of Aleppo, Idlib and Raqqa; at its peak it had approximately 25,000 fighters. It reportedly funds itself and is also supported by regional actors and international extremist networks. During the battle for Raqqa, which served as the capital of the Islamic State, the organization seized the central bank, confiscating an estimated four to six billion Syrian pounds (between about $308,000 and $460,000) (Independent Arabic, December 10, 2024).
  • Jaysh al-Izza (the Army of Glory): Founded by Jamil al-Saleh, a Syrian army defector, the group operated in the northern rural areas of Hama (International Monte Carlo website, December 2, 2024).

     
Right: The al-Fatah al-Mubin Operations Room logo (al-Furat News Agency, March 25, 2023). Left: The logo of the Joint Operations Room (al-Jazeera, December 3, 2024)

Relations with Israel

• According to al-Julani, his father’s family was forced to leave the Golan Heights after the Israeli “occupation” in 1967, which was why he chose the name “al-Julani” (“from the Golan”). He also said he had undergone religious radicalization, decided to join the ranks of global jihad under the influence of the second intifada in 2000, and expressed solidarity with the Palestinians. Despite his personal connection and the central place of Israel and Judaism in Salafi-jihadist ideology, he rarely referred to Israel throughout his activities in the Syrian conflict, including in the days following the fall of Assad’s regime (Frontline, June 1, 2021).
• Similarly, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham spokesperson Obeida Arnaout has not related to Israeli strikes on Assad’s military facilities since the regime fell. When asked, he stated they wanted everyone to respect Syrian sovereignty, but their top priority was restoring security, infrastructure and services, and ensuring the daily lives of its residents (Channel 4 News UK, December 11, 2024).
• However, on December 8, 2024, HTS activists were documented in the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus declaring that they would “enter al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina and the Kaaba in Mecca just as we entered the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus” (MEMRI, December 8, 2024).

Syrian National Army

•  The Syrian National Army is an umbrella for a large number of rebel groups which were consolidated into a single organizational entity by Turkey in 2017. The groups operated from a joint operations room named Dawn of Freedom, through which they directed the fighting against Assad regime forces starting on November 30, 2024.

Organizational development

• The Syrian National Army was established in 2017 in the administrative region north of Aleppo by several groups participating in part of Turkey’s Operation Euphrates Shield in northern Syria.^[6] The organization operates under full Turkish sponsorship as a regular army, formally subordinate to the Syrian Interim Government’s ministry of defense, an opposition governance body established with Turkish support in northern Syria.^[7]
• In 2019, in preparation for a Turkish-initiated offensive against Kurdish strongholds in Syria, the National Front for Liberation was integrated into the Syrian National Army. It had been based on the Free Syrian Army (FSA), an umbrella organization of a large number of rebel groups and the most dominant force fighting Assad’s regime during the Syrian Civil War, with its peak strength estimated at around 70,000 fighters.
• The Syrian National Army is not a uniform body, and according to various estimates is made up of approximately 40 Syrian rebel groups since the integration of the National Liberation Front. Although officially defined as secular, it includes a small number of groups with an Islamist ideology. Such groups operate with full Turkish sponsorship, following directives from Ankara and serving Turkish interests, primarily in combat against the Kurdish population and Kurdish organizations active in northern Syria (Le Monde, December 10, 2024; EUAA, April 2024).

Order of battle

• The Syrian National Army order of battle is estimated at between 70,000 and 90,000 fighters, making it the largest rebel organization in Syria. In recent years, Turkey has worked to give the organization the trappings of a regular army, structured and with official military formations, including headquarters and operational units (legions named after sultans from the Ottoman Empire’s history) (Ömer, October 2020; Middle East Eye, December 7, 2024).
• Three groups make up the Operation Dawn of Liberation operations room:
  • The first group includes the Northern Brigade, the Eastern Freedom Gathering, the Muhammad al-Fatih Brigade and the 113th Brigade. Prominent within this group is the Islamist Levant Front (Falayaq al-Sham), with thousands of fighters, formed by the merger of 19 armed factions, some of which were affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. The group is considered a Turkish priority and receives direct military support (Independent Arabic, December 10, 2024).
  • The second group includes the Sultan Murad Division, the Hamza Division, the Mu’tasim Division, the Army of Islam and the Rahman Legion.
  • The third group includes the Levant Front, which is composed of some of the largest armed factions in northern Syria, including the Mujahideen Army, the Islamic Front, the Hazzm Movement, and the Falcons of the Levant (Independent Arabic, December 10, 2024). Other units include the Peace Brigade and the Glory Legion (Jaysh al-Majd).
• Another military group linked to the Syrian National Army is the Army of Glory (Jaysh al-Izza). Founded by Jamil al-Saleh, a Syrian Army defector, it operates primarily in northern rural Hama. The group also possesses a stockpile of American-made anti-tank missiles, including TOW missiles (International Monte Carlo website, December 2, 2024; Independent Arabic, December 10, 2024).
• Before joining the Syrian National Army’s framework, various factions had sporadic and temporary connections with other power actors in the Syrian Civil War, including the United States, ISIS and Kurdish rebel groups. Some factions brought their previous ties into the SNA, which has resulted in partial success for Turkey’s unification efforts, as old disputes sometimes resurface, occasionally leading to violent clashes and military skirmishes among the factions (Ömer, October 2020).

Relations with Israel

• Given Turkey’s dominance in the SNA’s operations and funding, and given Turkish President Erdogan’s hostile position toward Israel, the Syrian National Army may adopt an anti-Israel position. However, it was recently reported that some members of the organization, particularly among veterans of the Free Syrian Army, had expressed interest in future cooperation with Israel (Israel Channel 12 News, December 8, 2024).

The Syrian Democratic Forces

• The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is a multi-ethnic organization serving as the military force of the autonomous region in northern and eastern Syria, which constitutes approximately 30 percent of the country’s territory (EUAA, April 2024).^[8]
• On December 12, 2024, authorities in the autonomous region of northern and eastern Syria ordered the Free Syria flag, adopted by opposition forces since 2011, to be flown throughout the region. The official statement declared that flying the flag symbolized a new phase and the end of an era of oppression and tyranny (Rudaw, December 12, 2024).

• The Kurdish forces lead the organization, along with Arab, Turkmen and Assyrian fighters who represent the ethnic fabric of the autonomous region. The organization’s fighters played a significant role in battles against the Islamic State and, in the current campaign, have taken control of areas abandoned by the Assad regime’s forces and pro-Iranian militias in the eastern part of the country. However, they were also involved in clashes against forces from the al-Fatah al-Mubin Operations Room and the Operation Dawn of Liberation operations room (Independent Arabic, December 10, 2024).

Organizational and ideological development

• The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) were established in 2015 and funded by the United States military, becoming the primary force leading the ground operations of the American-led international coalition against ISIS’s Islamic State.
• Dominant in the SDF is the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which provided the majority of the fighters and commanders who founded the SDF. The YPG, established in 2012, serves as the military arm of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), which is considered a Syrian affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The PKK advocates for Kurdish issues and Kurdish rights in Turkey and has been designated as a terrorist organization in Turkey. Alongside the YPG, the Women’s Protection Units (YPJ) operate, comprising mostly Kurdish women who actively participate in combat as an organic unit (EUAA, September 2020).

• The connection between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, the European Union and Turkey, has put the SDF in constant conflict with Turkish-backed Syrian opposition groups, primarily the Syrian National Army. Clashes between the two sides also occurred during Operation Dawn of Liberation, when Turkish-backed rebels captured areas under SDF control in northern Syria. An American-brokered agreement eventually led to a ceasefire between the sides in the city of Manbij in northwest Syria and the withdrawal of SDF forces (Reuters, December 11, 2024).
• On December 11, 2024, forces affiliated with the al-Fatah al-Mubin Operations Room, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, captured the city of Deir ez-Zor in eastern Syria, which had been held by the SDF since December 6, 2024, following the withdrawal of the Assad regime’s forces and pro-Iranian militias. As a result, the SDF now controls 20% of Syria’s total territory (al-Arabiya, December 11, 2024).

Order of battle

• The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are estimated to have between 40,000 and 60,000 fighters, most of whom belong to the People’s Protection Units (YPG). In addition to the military force, the SDF also has an internal security force (Asayish), with approximately 12,000 operatives responsible for counterterrorism operations in Kurdish-controlled areas in northwest Syria, as well as providing assistance to the military forces. There is also a police force of about 30,000 officers (EUAA, September 2020).

The Southern Operations Room

• The Southern Operations Room is an umbrella organization established on December 6, 2024, made up of armed forces of Druze tribes and local opposition groups in Daraa, Quneitra and al-Suwayda in southern Syria (Anadolu Agency, December 6, 2024). The Operations Room is commanded by Ahmed al-Odeh, who, until the beginning of the offensive, was the commander of the Eighth Brigade, which operated under Russian directives. For that reason  he is known as “Russia’s man in the south” (al-Watan, December 9, 2024).^[9]

• The coalition is based on local forces which had been operating in southern Syria since the start of the Syrian Civil War in 2011 and remained there under the National Reconciliation Agreement initiated by Russia in 2018. Under the agreement, the local organizations retained their light weapons, despite being placed under the control and supervision of Russian- supported Syrian army forces.
• Although they were under Syrian-Russian sponsorship, following the advancement of Operation Deterrence of Aggression, rebel groups united under the Southern Operations Room for joint combat against the Assad regime’s forces and their allies, taking control of the southern provinces, including areas along the border with Israel. The Southern Operations Room has close ties with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and the two cooperated in the fighting in southern Syria and later in the occupation of Damascus (Long War Journal, December 9, 2024).

• On December 11, 2024, Abu Muhammad al-Julani met with members of the Southern Operations Room, led by Ahmad al-Odeh. The summary statement described the meeting as an important step toward achieving regional stability and security and a significant move toward “uniting the efforts of revolutionary forces under a unified central leadership.” The parties reportedly discussed setting priorities for the next phase in various fields, strengthening coordination and cooperation among all actors in the province, and taking steps to improve security “and preserve the gains of the homeland” (Syria TV, December 11, 2024).

Order of battle

• One of the most important forces in the Southern Operations Room is the Eighth Brigade, previously known as the Shabab al-Sunna Forces. Before the 2018 reconciliation, the Shabab al-Sunna Forces numbered approximately 1,200 fighters and were considered one of the strongest and most influential forces in the Daraa region. However, they were also accused of brutal conduct toward local residents. From the reconciliation agreement until the beginning of the offensive in December 2024, the organization was subordinate to the Syrian army, operated under Russian supervision and was occasionally deployed to assist Assad’s forces in other parts of Syria (Long War Journal, December 9, 2024).
• Another organization in the Southern Operations Room is the Central Committee, which had been active among Syrian rebel groups since the start of the Civil War in 2011. Its objective was to protect local residents but it was also accused of cooperating with the Assad regime’s forces at the expense of the local population (Long War Journal, December 9, 2024).

Relations with Israel

• The Southern Operations Room’s participants have not made public statements regarding Israel, including since the entry of IDF forces into the buffer zone. However, the presence of jihadist elements within the Southern Operations room and the cooperation with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham could potentially pose a future threat to Israel in the Golan Heights border region.

Appendix: Stages in the Development of Hayat al-Tahrir^[10]

• In August 2011, a vanguard force of seven operatives was sent from Iraq to Syria under the orders of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of the Islamic State of Iraq, al-Qaeda’s Iraqi affiliate, which served as an umbrella organization for Salafi-jihadist groups in the country. Al-Baghdadi sought to exploit the Syrian uprising to establish a local force for promoting the interests of Iraq jihadist groups in Syria.
• The vanguard was led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the alias of Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa. Al-Julani, was born in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in 1982,^[11] to a family originally from the Golan Heights which emigrated after the Six-Day War. He grew up in the al-Mazzeh neighborhood of Damascus, one of Syria’s most affluent areas. Despite his secular surroundings, the outbreak of the second intifada in 2000 influenced him, radicalizing his religious views. After the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, he moved to Baghdad and fought under the command of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, until his arrest by American forces. He was detained in Abu Ghraib and other United States military prisons, where he became a prominent figure among jailed jihadists. Released in 2008 after five years, he joined the Islamic State of Iraq under al-Baghdadi and commanded operations in Mosul before being ordered to Syria.
• Under al-Julani’s leadership, the task force operated under the name Jabhat al-Nusra li-Ahl al-Sham (the Support Front for the People of the Levant), or simply Jabhat al-Nusra. They first attacked in late December 2011, when two suicide bombers targeted Syrian intelligence facilities in Damascus’ suburbs. A month later, the group publicly announced its establishment as a Salafi-jihadist force and declared war on the Assad regime.
• In April 2013, al-Baghdadi announced the formation of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), merging the Islamic State of Iraq with Jabhat al-Nusra. Regarding that as detrimental to his efforts to build ties with Syrian rebel groups without emphasizing jihadist ideology, al-Julani rejected al-Baghdadi and pledged loyalty to al-Qaeda and its leader Ayman al-Zawahiri. In May 2013, after failed mediation attempts, Zawahiri declared a separation between the Syrian and Iraqi arenas, making each organization a local affiliate of al-Qaeda in its respective region.
• The split angered al-Baghdadi, who challenged Zawahiri’s leadership over the global jihad. In June 2014, al-Baghdadi proclaimed the establishment of the Islamic State Caliphate, declaring himself the caliph, which caused an unprecedented schism within the Salafi-jihadist arena between ISIS and al-Qaeda. While Jabhat al-Nusra remained affiliated with al-Qaeda, al-Julani maneuvered between a Salafi-jihadist and a Syrian nationalist identity. Amid the Syrian army’s recovery and Assad’s support from Iran, Hezbollah and Russia, al-Julani focused on the Syrian arena. He recruited Syrian operatives, increased operational and logistical cooperation with local groups, some of which were secular, including the Free Syrian Army, and directed his operations against the Assad regime and ISIS. Meanwhile, American airstrikes targeting Jabhat al-Nusra, designated as a terrorist organization, led al-Julani to distance himself from al-Qaeda and Salafi-jihadist symbols.
• In a May 2015 interview with al-Jazeera, where he did not show his face, al-Julani presented his “updated” ideology, emphasizing his Syrian nationalist tendencies. He expressed a commitment to the Syrian people, vowed to continue fighting Assad’s regime, called on the Alawite-Shi’ite minority to lay down their arms and dissociate from Assad, threatened Hezbollah for its involvement alongside Assad and pledged not to attack the West.
• In July 2016, after receiving Zawahiri’s blessing to sever ties with al-Qaeda to focus on the Syrian campaign and merge with local Islamist groups, al-Julani made his first public appearance, announcing Jabhat al-Nusra’s separation from al-Qaeda and the establishment of Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (the Front for the Victory of the Levant). The objective was to allow Jabhat al-Nusra to merge with other Syrian Islamist rebel groups, which had previously hesitated because of its al-Qaeda affiliation. Al-Julani also sought to reassure the United States and other Western nations that his focus was solely within Syria and not on promoting terrorism abroad. However, while the move ostensibly had Zawahiri’s approval, some al-Qaeda loyalists left Jabhat Fatah al-Sham in protest over the disassociation. Other Syrian rebel groups, notably Ahrar al-Sham, had reservations regarding al-Julani’s unification efforts, resulting in the outbreak of violent clashes between the factions.

• In January 2017, al-Julani announced the establishment of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a merger of Jabhat Fatah al-Sham with four other prominent rebel groups: the Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement, Liwa al-Haqq, Jabhat Ansar al-Din and Jaysh al-Sunna. The creation of the new organization solidified the final split between al-Julani and al-Qaeda, primarily because of al-Julani’s increasing alignment with Turkey. Following unsuccessful reconciliation and mediation attempts, al-Zawahiri officially declared that the Syrian organization had completely severed ties with al-Qaeda.
• Alongside civilian activities in the Idlib region, al-Julani also began reshaping his image to distance himself from his jihadist image. He abandoned traditional attire, choosing instead suits and military uniforms. In an interview with the American public broadcasting program “Frontline” in 2021, he stated that since its inception his organization had posed no threat to Western or European societies (Frontline, June 1, 2021).

1. Click htps://www.tetrrorism-info.org.il/en to subscribe and receive the ITIC's daily updates as well as its other publications.

2. For further information, see the December 2024 ITIC reports, "The Rebel Attack in Syria: What does it mean for Israel?" and "Spotlight on Syria."

3. For further information, see the Appendix.

4. The Astana Process, led by Russia, Turkey and Iran, was launched in January 2017 in an attempt to end the Syrian Civil War and served as a forum for preventing the crisis from escalating. An agreement was reached in 2017 to establish four "de-escalation zones:" Idlib and parts of neighboring provinces in northern Syria; the rural area east of Damascus; the area between Hama and Homs; and the region near the borders with Israel and Jordan. For further information, see Eyal Zisser, Syria in War: The rise and fall of the Syrian Revolution, Maarachot Publishing and Moshe Dayan Center, 2020.

5. The Tactical Epic Unit, responsible for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham training fighters, is composed of combat-experienced veterans from Russian-speaking Islamic countries who claim to assist the combat capabilities of groups "defending innocent civilians." Some of the unit's operatives migrated to Syria at the start of the Syrian Civil War and integrated into Jabhat al-Nusra. They are also associated with the Turkistan Islamic Party, a group of Uyghur Muslim separatists from western China affiliated with al-Qaeda and designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and other countries (Syria TV, April 2021).

6. Operation Euphrates Shield took place between August 2016 and March 2017, with Turkey claiming its objective was to "neutralize terrorists," primarily ISIS and the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

7. The Syrian National Coalition, to which the interim government belongs, was established in 2012 and was recognized by many countries as the official representative of the Syrian opposition. The coalition is composed of opposition organizations representing Syria's various sects and works toward the establishment of a democratic and free Syria. (Ömer Özkizilcik, October 2020, "The Syrian National Army (SNA): Structure, Functions, and Three Scenarios for its Relationship with Damascus," SETA Foundation).

8. Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES)

9. The Eighth Brigade was not part of the Syrian Army but was directly subordinate to the Russian military at the Hmeimim base. As a result, the Brigade clashed with the Syrian Army's Fourth Division and other forces aligned with the Assad regime (TRT in Arabic, December 8, 2020).

10. The Appendix was based on Yoram Schweitzer, Aviv Oreg and Hayim Iserovich (2023), "Crossroads 9/11: A Journey Following the Terror of al-Qaeda, ISIS, and Their Partners," Institute for National Security Studies INSS; Charles Lister (July 2016), "Profiling Jabhat Al Nusra," Brookings Institution; and Ali Soufan (2017), Anatomy of Terror – From the Death of Bin Laden to the Rise of the Islamic State, Norton & Company.

11. According to al-Julani, his father was studying in Iraq during the war and subsequently joined the Palestinian Fedayeen in Jordan. Later, he returned to Iraq to complete his studies, and in 1961, he returned to Syria but was imprisoned for opposing the regime. The father moved to Saudi Arabia and was working in the ministry of energy when his son was born.

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