The killing of Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri – reactions and implications

Overview

• On August 1, 2022, US President Joe Biden announced that the CIA had killed Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri on July 31, 2022, by a UAV airstrike on the balcony of a house where he was staying with his family in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. Biden noted that Zawahiri’s family members who were in the house emerged unscathed. According to the US security establishment, Zawahiri was identified by US intelligence back in April 2022. After a thorough examination and when conditions were ripe, President Biden authorized to kill him (BBC, August 3, 2022).

• Zawahiri, aged 71 when he was killed, had been Al-Qaeda leader since June 16, 2011, after succeeding Osama bin Laden, who was killed by US forces in Abbottabad, northern Pakistan, on May 2, 2011. He was one of the masterminds of the September 11, 2001 attacks and also took part in other attacks against American targets, including the attacks on the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania (August 1998) and on the USS Cole (October 2000). It was further reported that from his safe house, he continued to guide Al-Qaeda and coordinate the operation of its various branches around the globe. Over the years, he published large quantities of propaganda material inciting attacks against the US, including during the past 
• few weeks.^[1]

• The killing of Zawahiri is yet another US action aiming to eliminate Al-Qaeda leaders, whose operatives carried out the September 11, 2001 attacks, killing 2,977 people. This action, the first by US forces on Afghanistan’s territory since the US evacuation in August 2021, represents further achievement in the United States counterterrorism activity.
• For Al-Qaeda, the killing of its leader mainly dealt a blow to the morale of its rank-and-file since Zawahiri, one of Al-Qaeda’s founders, had been a most outstanding symbol of the organization. Zawahiri’s main achievement was the fact that he enabled the continued existence of the organization in the wake of bin Laden’s elimination and was able to serve as a source of inspiration for Al-Qaeda’s operatives around the world. At the same time, it is noteworthy that during his leadership, many operatives left Al-Qaeda, including full branches (Abu Sayyaf, Boko Haram etc.), the number of its attacks dropped, and the organization lost many supporters.
• It is still unknown who will succeed Zawahiri. One of the main candidates is Muhammad Salah al-Din Zaidan, AKA Saif al-Adel, a senior Al-Qaeda operative who had been involved in terrorist attacks against the United States.
• The US operation caused major embarrassment to the Taliban government. According to the Doha Agreement signed in February 2020, the Taliban will not return to terrorism and their territory will not be used for training, preparation or indoctrination by terrorist organizations. The killing of Zawahiri proved to the Taliban authorities that even when no US forces are present on their soil, the Americans are capable of operating there.

The killing of Zawahiri and the reactions

• On August 1, 2022, US President Joe Biden announced that the CIA had killed Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri on July 31, 2022, by a UAV airstrike on the balcony of a house where he was staying with his family in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. Biden noted that Zawahiri’s family members who were in the house emerged unscathed. According to President Biden, the action sends a clear message that the US knows how to remove threats against its citizens. The President said, “No matter how long it takes, no matter where you hide, if you are a threat to our people, the United States will find you and take you out. “ (White House website, August 1, 2022).

• According to briefings by the United States security establishment, prolonged intelligence gathering preceded the action ever since the Americans suspected that Zawahiri had returned to Afghanistan following the rise of the Taliban government and the pullout of the US forces. It was further reported that back in April 2022, US intelligence identified Zawahiri and found that he was staying in a house in Kabul along with his wife and daughter. After a thorough examination and when conditions were ripe, President Biden authorized his killing (BBC, August 3, 2022). According to US sources, the house where he was staying and was killed belongs to a senior Taliban government official and is situated in a prestigious neighborhood in central Kabul, near the US and British embassies. His family members who were in the house emerged unscathed. His stay in such a house raises the possibility that he had enjoyed the protection of the Taliban administration (CNN, Reuters, August 2, 2022).
• According to the Taliban spokesman, the United States attacked a home in Kabul by a drone. He condemned the action, claiming that this was a violation of international principles and the US forces’ pullout agreement (Taliban spokesman’s Twitter account, August 2, 2022). Commenting on the killing, senior Taliban officials were quoted saying that they were discussing their response to the US airstrike that killed Zawahiri (Reuters, August 3, 2022). US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Taliban had “grossly violated” the Doha Agreement between the two sides by hosting and sheltering Zawahiri (Reuters, August 2, 2022). It should be noted that in the wake of the pullout of US forces from Afghanistan, there were several reports based on intelligence evaluations that Afghanistan under the Taliban regime once again became a base for the activity of Al-Qaeda and other jihad organizations (Reuters, August 2, 2022).
• Saudi Arabia welcomed the killing. An official statement issued by the Saudi Foreign Ministry pointed out that Zawahiri had planned and led heinous terrorist attacks in the United States and Saudi Arabia. The ministry also stressed the importance of collaboration and concentration of international efforts in the struggle against terrorism (Saudi Foreign Ministry’s Twitter account, August 2, 2022).

• In the Gaza Strip, Ismail bin Abd al-Rahim Hamid, codenamed Abu Hafs al-Maqdisi, leader of the Army of the Nation in Jerusalem, a Salafist-jihadi organization affiliated with Al-Qaeda, published his intention to set up a mourning tent in memory of Ayman Al-Zawahiri at his home in the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood in Gaza city. He subsequently said that the mourning tent would not be set up since he was summoned by Hamas’s security officials, who told him not to do so (Ismail bin Abd al-Rahim’s Twitter account, August 2, 2022). Later, he posted a tweet wondering why it is forbidden for him to set up a mourning tent whereas Hamas did set up a mourning tent in memory of Qassem Soleimani. He wrote, “Dr. Sheikh Ayman al-Zawahiri – we regard him as a shaheed for the nation and Jerusalem. As for the shaheed of Jerusalem [i.e., Soleimani], let him go into the garbage can of history, he and those who exonerate him and maintain relations with the enemies of Allah, his prophet and the prophet’s companions (Ismail bin Abd al-Rahim Hamid’s Twitter account, August 2, 2022).

Significance and possible implications

• The killing of Al-Qaeda leader by the US deals a major blow to the organization in terms of leadership, morale, and operative aspects. Since the killing of Osama bin Laden, Zawahiri had been the prominent figure in the organization. During his leadership term, he published many propaganda messages through video clips and audiotapes, in which he disseminated his theory and instigated the organization’s operatives to carry out terrorist attacks. In the past year, while he apparently stayed in Afghanistan under the Taliban’s protection, he disseminated a large number of video clips and audiotapes, which indicates that the Taliban administration granted him absolute freedom of action.
• Zawahiri’s main achievement was his ability to maintain his organization after the blow that it suffered when bin Laden was killed and to serve as a source of inspiration for the organization’s operatives. His Achilles’ heel was that he was perceived as having much less charisma than bin Laden and possessing lesser operative capability. Under Zawahiri’s leadership, Al-Qaeda could carry out only a small number of showcase attacks against the West. Under him, Al-Qaeda splintered into many small organizations and became decentralized with branches operating independently in the Middles East, Asia and Africa. Zawahiri also had considerable responsibility for the rift that occurred between Al-Qaeda in Syria and Al-Qaeda in Iraq (which later became the Islamic State – ISIS), which weakened Al-Qaeda and made many of its operatives and supporters around the world leave it. Most of those who left joined ISIS, which is considered by the younger generation of Salafist-jihadi ideology as more attractive and dynamic than Al-Qaeda, which was perceived as a decadent, obsolescent organization. As part of this process, there were sometimes even entire branches and organizations affiliated with Al-Qaeda that left it and pledged allegiance to ISIS, such as the Abu Sayyaf organization in the Philippines and Boko Haram in Nigeria.
• The killing of Zawahiri may undermine Al-Qaeda since for the time being it is not known who will replace him. The leading candidate mentioned as his successor is Muhammad Salah al-Din Zaidan, AKA Saif al-Adel. He had stayed in Iran and apparently arrived in Afghanistan after the Taliban’s return to power. He is a senior Al-Qaeda operative, known as an explosives expert, and was responsible for the bombing of the US embassy in Kenya in 1998. It is estimated that he is currently a member of the organization’s Majlis al-Shura (Al-Qaeda’s leading council) and is in charge of the military committee, which is responsible for carrying out terrorist attacks (Wikipedia).
• The disappearance of Zawahiri, one of Al-Qaeda’s founders, prepares the ground for the entrance of a younger and more dynamic generation. This may lead to a new leader who will be more active in the various arenas. If the Taliban government in Afghanistan continues to provide Al-Qaeda with shelter and protection, Afghanistan may become a world center of terrorism.
• For the United States and the West, this is a symbolic achievement that has demonstrated that the United States abides by its word to hunt down Al-Qaeda’s operatives and especially the senior ones, who are responsible for the killing of thousands of American and other citizens, even if this happens after many years. Furthermore, the killing sends a message that Afghanistan is no longer immune to a strike in its territory if it continues to be a safe haven for terrorists, even if there are no US forces on its soil.

Appendix

• Sheikh Dr. Ayman Mohammed Rabi’a al-Zawahiri (Abu Mohammed) was born in 1951 to a wealthy family whose members held senior positions in the Egyptian religious establishment. His piety was evident from an early age, and at 14 he joined the Muslim Brotherhood. In his youth, he was influenced by the ideology of Sayyid Qutb, a central figure in the Muslim Brotherhood, who developed the radical Islamic ideology from which the extremist faction of the Muslim Brotherhood sprang. When Sayyid Qutb was executed by Egyptian President Nasser in 1966 and thousands of Muslim Brotherhood activists were imprisoned, Zawahiri, along with a number of other young men, set up an underground cell (1966-1967) with the intention of overthrowing the Egyptian regime and establishing an Islamic government
• Zawahiri began studying medicine at the University of Cairo in 1968 and graduated in 1974. He did his residency in surgery at a university in Pakistan, receiving an advanced degree. During his studies, in Egypt, he joined an extremist Islamic organization called the Islamic Jihad, which was behind a wave of terrorist attacks in Egypt, and became one of its most prominent operatives. In 1991 he formally became the organization’s head.
• Following the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in October 1981, Zawahiri was arrested along with other radical Islamic operatives. He was cleared of involvement in the assassination because of lack of evidence, but convicted of membership in a terrorist organization and having weapons and explosives in his possession. He was sentenced to a term of three years in prison, which he served from 1981 to 1984. In his book Knights under the Prophet’s Banner, he said that assassinating Sadat was part of a comprehensive program of assassinating senior figures in the Egyptian regime and using the army to take over vital broadcasting stations.
• After his release from prison, he went from Egypt to Jeddah in Saudi Arabia to practice medicine and to promote the activities of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad beyond the borders of Egypt. There he apparently met Osama bin Laden for the first time, and from Saudi Arabia he went to Pakistan and Afghanistan to wage his jihad against the Egyptian regime.
• While in Peshawar, Afghanistan, he founded an organization called Talai’i al-Fath (“pioneers of conquest”), which in effect served as the operational wing of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad. In Afghanistan, he established a network of bases, training camps, and headquarters, all with the support of Osama bin Laden.
• At the beginning of the 1990s, Zawahiri and bin Laden went to Sudan, where they set up a network of bases. During the 1990s, he also set up a new network in Yemen, from which he conducted a campaign of terrorist attacks against Egyptian targets, both inside and outside Egypt. He was also involved in an attempt to assassinate Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and the murder of tourists in Luxor in 1997. He was apparently also involved in the attempted assassination of President Mubarak in Ethiopia in July 1995. Because of his involvement in terrorist attacks, he was sentenced to death in absentia in Egypt, in April 1999.
• Zawahiri’s involvement in terrorism in the 1990s did not focus only on the Egyptian arena. In the middle of the decade, instructed by bin Laden, he set up Al-Qaeda terrorist networks in Britain and the United States, strengthened the radical Islamic militias in the Balkans, supported radical Islamic groups in Somalia and Ethiopia, and aided the rebels in Chechnya. In 1996, with two other operatives, he tried to enter Chechnya and was arrested by the Russian security forces, only to be released “for lack of evidence.”
• At the beginning of 1998, Zawahiri and Osama bin Laden founded the International Islamic Front for Jihad against Jews and Crusaders. It was an umbrella network for Al-Qaeda, the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, and various radical Islamic organizations operating in countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Kashmir, and the Philippines. In June 2001, Zawahiri announced the formal union of all the organizations, whose official name was [Tanzim] Qaedat al-Jihad (the formal name of Al-Qaeda to this day). Zawahiri became bin Laden’s deputy in the Front and second in command of Al-Qaeda.

• In February 1998, Qaedat al-Jihad issued an appeal calling for the killing of Americans throughout the world, saying it was the “personal duty” of every Muslim. In practical terms, Al-Qaeda initiated a campaign of global terrorism against the United States, beginning with the terrorist attacks on the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in August 1998, and culminating with the September 11, 2001 attacks.

• Zawahiri continued holding key positions in Al-Qaeda (as far as is known, he was responsible for producing anthrax spores for the organization) and became even more dominant than bin Laden in Al-Qaeda’s global propaganda campaign.
• Zawahiri’s ideology expresses hostility and hatred towards the Christian West (the “Crusaders”) and the State of Israel, which he regarded as the spearhead of the Christian West in the Middle East and believed that “Palestine” had to be liberated only through jihad, and towards the Jews in general (his ideology incorporates anti-Semitic motifs directly from The Protocols of the Elders of Zion). In addition, he stressed his hostility towards the Arab moderate regimes and authorities in East Asia (especially India and China), which he conceived as hostile to Islam and Muslims.^[2]
• Zawahiri tried to leverage the Arab Spring to strengthen Al-Qaeda and spread its influence in the Arab world, but failed. In effect, the rift between Al-Qaeda and its branch in Iraq (that later became ISIS) happened under his leadership. Subsequently, ISIS became the dominant element in the global terrorism arena, at the expense of Al-Qaeda. Towards the end of Zawahiri’s life, it was evident that his organization was weak and his leadership weakened as well, inter alia, due to his health situation, which apparently was shaky.

^[1] The last video clip was released on May 6, 2022, marking the anniversary of Osama bin Laden’s death. In the video, Zawahiri attempts to glorify Al-Qaeda and bin Laden’s actions against the West, noting that ever since the September 11, 2001 attacks, the United States had been in a decline as a result of the vast expenses that it incurred in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and recently because of COVID-19. He further noted that the United States’ weakness had made Ukraine an easy prey in the hands of Russia (ABC News, May 7, 2022). ↑
^[2] For further details, see the ITIC's Information Bulletin from June 19, 2011, “Profile of Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden’s Heir as Leader of Al-Qaeda” ↑

Related Articles