Terrorist Organizations - The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center

Hezbollah’s defiance, the instability of the ceasefire andattempts to promote an Israeli-Lebanese dialogue

On November 6, 2025, Hezbollah published an open letter to the Lebanese leadership and public. It claimed it had abided by the November 27, 2024 ceasefire agreement and added that the objective of demanding that Hezbollah disarm and the Lebanese begin negotiations with Israel was to weaken Lebanon. It also insisted that it would not give up the "right to resist" and was not required to obey government directives on issues of war and peace. Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem and other senior figures expressed similar positions; The letter was prompted by IDF attacks to enforce the ceasefire, targeting Hezbollah's reconstruction efforts and Radwan Force capabilities, amid reports of the organization’s rearmament. Israel and the United States also warned that if the Lebanese army did not accelerate Hezbollah’s disarmament, the attacks could intensify in quality and quantity; To prevent escalation and resolve the disputes between Israel and Lebanon, the United States and Egypt proposed holding bilateral negotiations. Lebanese president Aoun stated that Lebanon had no choice but to engage in dialogue with Israel; Nabih Berri, speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, and a Hezbollah ally, opposed direct negotiations; Hezbollah’s open letter was another expression the organization’s defiance of efforts to disarm it, after previously expressing vague willingness to discuss possibly disarming "under certain conditions." However, Hezbollah has not issued the Lebanese government an ultimatum or explicitly warned Israel, reflecting the organization's continued restraint despite the IDF attacks. In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah’s continued military buildup, the Lebanese army’s weakness in preventing it and the intensification of Israel’s measures could wear down the restraint shown by all actors since the beginning of the ceasefire and increase the risk of a serious escalation toward the end of 2025, the deadline set by the Lebanese government for disarming armed militias in the country, including Hezbollah. Read more...

Preparations for “the Day After” in the Gaza Strip: The Palestinian Organizations Meet in Cairo

On October 23 and 24, 2025, the Palestinian organizations met in Cairo at a conference sponsored by Egypt with Qatari and Turkish support, to formulate a unified Palestinian position, regarding the administration of the Gaza Strip and the disarmament of Hamas and other armed organizations in preparation for the next phase of the ceasefire. Most of the organizations sent representatives, including Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP): Fatah was not represented; According to the closing statement issued after the conference, the organizations agreed to continue the ceasefire, demanding the withdrawal of the IDF from the Gaza Strip, the lifting of the "siege," the opening of the crossings and the beginning of a reconstruction of the Strip. They agreed that the administration of the Strip would be transferred to a temporary committee of independent professionals in cooperation with Arab and international actors, along with an international committee for funding and supervision, and a temporary international force along the borders; In addition to the conference, a meeting was held between a Hamas delegation, led by the head of the movement in the Gaza Strip, Khalil al-Hayya, and a delegation of the Palestinian Authority (PA), headed by the deputy chairman, Hussein al-Sheikh. The Egyptian intelligence chief also met separately with representatives of the organizations; Senior Hamas figures claimed the movement was committed to relinquishing control of the Gaza Strip and to reaching understandings with other Palestinian organizations regarding a joint vision for the ceasefire agreement, but would not state that Hamas was prepared to give up its weapons or to accept PA responsibility for the Strip. Fatah, however, said the PA had to assume responsibility for the Gaza Strip, including the administrative committee to be established to manage the territory and for maintaining security, and called on Hamas to act within the framework of the PLO; In ITIC assessment, the Palestinian organizations have realized that there is a narrow window of opportunity to form a national consensus and an interim framework acceptable to all sides, chiefly Hamas and Fatah. The outcome of the war and the pressure from the United States and the mediators have caused a cautious shift within Hamas toward relinquishing formal rule in favor of technocratic civil administration and elections, with the understanding that the proposed governance model, i.e., technocratic management under Arab and international oversight, would allow the movement to retain influence in the Strip. Hamas also understands that disarming would determine its fate, and in ITIC assessment, the movement will attempt to obscure and postpone the issue of disarmament within any future agreement. However, even if understandings are formally reached and the sides announce a joint decision without binding commitments or a practical plan for disarming the organizations, Israel will face a dilemma regarding the implementation of a full withdrawal, the opening of crossings and approval for Gaza's reconstruction. Read more...

Hamas Activity to Restore Security Governance in the Gaza Strip after the Ceasefire

The ceasefire in the Gaza Strip which began on October 10, 2025, provided Hamas with an opportunity to deploy its security forces in areas evacuated by the IDF and to demonstrate governance, despite the severe damage they suffered during the war; The Hamas security forces focused on fighting local clans accused of collaboration with Israel or identified as power centers which might threaten the movement's position in the Strip. The security forces carried out raids and arrests, confiscated equipment, and executed "collaborators" in full view of local residents; Hamas violence received support from the "resistance" [terrorist] organizations in the Gaza Strip and the umbrella organizations of clans which disowned the "collaborators" among them, but provoked angry reactions from the Palestinian Authority and the United States. However, Hamas claimed that their activity was intended to prevent "anarchy and chaos," but reportedly agreed to stop public executions; In ITIC assessment, as long as there is no actual change in the control of the Gaza Strip as part of the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, in which Hamas is supposed to relinquish power and disarm, the movement can be expected to continue using its security forces to attack any groups which might threaten it. The objective of using force, especially the executions, was to instill fear in the local population and ensure that Hamas retained influence even if it relinquished its governmental power centers. However, if fighting against Israel resumes, the militias and clans opposed to Hamas can be expected to take action to expand their areas of influence throughout the Strip. Read more...

Escalation of terrorist activity in Judea and Samaria Following the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip

Hamas' ambition was to turn Judea and Samaria into an arena for terrorism as part of the campaign to destroy Israel which began with the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre. However, the counterterrorism actions taken by the Israeli security forces, which included the detention and elimination of thousands of wanted persons and terrorist operatives and the seizure of weapons prevented a wave of terrorism from Judea and Samaria; Following the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) began efforts to shift the center of the "resistance" to Judea and Samaria, encouraging attacks on Israeli security forces and settlers; Iran also continues its central role in efforts to turn Judea and Samaria into an active terrorist arena against Israel. A shipment of weapons from Iran was intercepted, which included powerful explosive charges and explosive-carrying drones; Qods Force operatives in Lebanon who were involved in the smuggling routes of weapons were eliminated; In ITIC assessment, after the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian terrorist organizations, with Iranian assistance, will direct a significant portion of their activity to Judea and Samaria to justify their existence by continuing the "resistance." The terrorist organizations will also try to exploit the return of the Palestinian issue to the global stage and the regional and international involvement in the Gaza Strip within the framework of the ceasefire to create pressure on Israel, provoking attacks which could escalate Israel's response in Judea and Samaria. Moreover, the return of hundreds of terrorist operatives from Israeli jails to Judea and Samaria will intensify the activity of the terrorist organizations, which will exploit the knowledge and experience of the released prisoners and the cooperative networks they built in prison. Read more...

Hamas activity to restore its civilian governance In the Gaza Strip after the ceasefire

The ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip on October 10, 2025, allowed Hamas to demonstrate governance and all facets of a return to normal life, despite the massive destruction and dismantling of the civilian infrastructure in the Strip caused by the war which began on October 7, 2023; Hamas deployed police and security forces in areas evacuated by the IDF to restore public order, along with a campaign against "collaborators" and those involved in criminal activity and price gouging. Hamas government mechanisms and local authorities began working to repair the damage in fields including health, education, welfare and transportation; In ITIC assessment, despite the severe blow to Hamas' civilian leadership and the destruction of civilian infrastructure in the Gaza Strip throughout the war, Hamas managed to quickly regain almost full control over the areas it held, activating government mechanisms and attempting to provide basic services, while also using force against the Gazans as a means of deterrence. Hamas understood that overt control of the Strip would deter the international community from transferring the funds required for reconstruction, delay the rebuilding of the Strip and could spark civilian unrest, and therefore signaled its willingness to transfer the civilian administration to a Palestinian technocratic government, while refusing to disarm. Nevertheless, Hamas' absolute control over government institutions and the provision of services, including at the local level, will leave it with significant influence, even if an alternative body is established to manage the Strip in accordance with the second stage of the American plan. Read more...

Spotlight on Terrorism – October 2025

During October 2025, fighting continued in the Gaza Strip and in Judea and Samaria, and the Houthi attacks continued from Yemen. On October 10, 2025, a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip went into effect, also pausing the Houthi attacks. The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was maintained despite IDF attacks on Hezbollah targets; The Gaza Strip: Until the ceasefire on October 10, the IDF continued attacking terrorist targets from the air and on the ground throughout the Strip, focusing on maneuvering inside Gaza City. Two IDF soldiers were killed. Eight rockets were fired at Israel. After the ceasefire began and IDF forces withdrew from parts of the Strip, the IDF continued enforcing the agreement against threats to its forces and in response to Hamas violations. Three IDF soldiers were killed. As part of the agreement, the twenty remaining live hostages held in the Gaza Strip were released, along with the bodies of seventeen murdered hostages from the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre. Eleven bodies of murdered hostages remain in the Gaza Strip; Judea, Samaria, and Israel: There was one terrorist attack, compared to four the previous month; there were no casualties. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations throughout Judea and Samaria, during which rockets were found, terrorist operatives planning attacks were eliminated, and a large shipment of weapons from Iran was seized; Lebanon: The IDF intensified its activity to prevent Hezbollah from violating the understandings of the ceasefire which went into effect on November 27, 2024, and against the organization's efforts to regain its military capabilities and restore its arsenal. More than twenty Hezbollah operatives were eliminated, including the logistics commander of the southern front headquarters and commanders and operatives from the Radwan Force. Hundreds of engineering vehicles and military infrastructures were destroyed; Syria: IDF forces prevented weapons from being smuggled into Israel and Lebanon from southern Syria; The Houthis: Until the Gaza ceasefire on October 10, the Houthis claimed responsibility for one ballistic missile attack on targets in Israel. The IDF spokesperson reported the interception of one ballistic missile and seven UAVs. The Houthis also claimed responsibility for an attack on a cargo ship in the Gulf of Aden, during which one crew member was killed. The Houthis announced the death of their chief of staff in an Israeli attack at the end of August 2025. Read more...

Implementation of the Lebanese Army’s Plan to Disarm Hezbollah: Status Report

In early October 2025, the commander of the Lebanese Army presented the government in Beirut with the first report on the implementation of Hezbollah’s disarmament plan, in accordance with the government’s August 2025 decisions on the state’s arms monopoly. The report was reportedly claimed that the Army would be able to complete the demilitarization of the area south of the Litani River by the end of 2025, on condition that IDF forces leave southern Lebanon; “Sources” claimed that the Army only acts against sites that have been reported to UNIFIL and to the Ceasefire Monitoring Committee for fear of clashing with Hezbollah, which could lead to civil war; The Lebanese leadership expressed its commitment to the implementation of the state’s monopoly on weapons and blamed Israel for the delays in implementing the plan due to the continued attacks and the presence of IDF forces in five points in southern Lebanon; Hezbollah leaders made it clear that they oppose disarming the organization. Nevertheless, Hezbollah reportedly requested guarantees in exchange for giving up the weapons.; It was reported that US Special Envoy Thomas Barrack would arrive in Lebanon and warn the heads of state that they have one last chance to enter direct negotiations with Israel on a timetable for Hezbollah’s disarmament, or Lebanon will be left without external support. The US Special Envoy’s Deputy for the Middle East met with senior Lebanese leaders and asked them to work to prevent the restoration of Hezbollah’s military capabilities; In the ITIC’s assessment, the Lebanese Army will continue its operations to collect weapons from the terrorist organizations, focusing on Hezbollah, and to deploy its forces, mainly in areas south of the Litani, aiming to finish this by the end of 2025. On the other hand, in Hezbollah’s strongholds north of the Litani, in the Beqaa and Beirut, the Lebanese Army will find it difficult to disarm the organization for fear of a confrontation that could escalate into civil war; In the ITIC’s assessment, Hezbollah will also continue to publicly oppose its disarmament, but may agree to partial disarmament, mainly in the region south of the Litani, in exchange for appropriate guarantees. At the same time, the Lebanese government will continue its efforts to persuade the international community, especially the American administration, to increase pressure on Israel to reduce its attacks and withdraw its forces from positions in southern Lebanon, fully or partially, to help convince Hezbollah to show greater flexibility on disarmament. However, if the US administration intensifies its use of leverage, such as withholding funds for reconstruction aid or granting a free hand to Israeli action in Lebanon, the Lebanese government may change its cautious position regarding dealing with Hezbollah. Read more...

The future of Hamas’ weapons and its efforts to rebuild the military wing

The American Twenty-Point Plan, which served as the basis for the ceasefire agreement to end the Gaza Strip War, explicitly stipulates that during the second phase Hamas and the other armed terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip will be required to disarm and the Strip will become a demilitarized zone; Senior Hamas figures made it clear that although they were committed to maintaining the ceasefire, they were not willing disarm the "resistance" until the establishment of a Palestinian state. They also reiterated that it was "a complex issue that had to be deliberated' within "a broader framework of general Palestinian understandings about the future of the Strip."; As after the previous rounds of fighting, and despite the demand that it disarm, Hamas quickly took advantage of the ceasefire to rebuild its military wing by collecting unexploded ordnance and ammunition left in the Gaza Strip after two years of war. In all probability, to restore its arsenal Hamas will use weapons smuggled across the Egyptian border via civilian drones and the entry of raw materials and dual-purpose equipment intended for the reconstruction of the Strip to manufacture weapons; In ITIC assessment, Hamas' unwillingness to relinquish the weapons of the "resistance" reflect its determination to continue the armed "struggle" against Israel under the pretext of a "legal and religious [sic] right to fight the occupation." Therefore, until a new, temporary administration is established in the Gaza Strip, Hamas can be expected to take advantage of the interim period to rebuild its military capabilities, with Iran also expected to continue backing Hamas by providing financial aid, supplying weapons, and transferring technical and other knowledge and training. The involvement of Qatar and Turkey, Hamas' allies, in shaping the "day after" in Gaza can be expected to obstruct the establishment of a temporary administration which could lead genuine, sincere efforts to limit Hamas' activity and disarm it. However, even if the temporary administration demonstrates determination, Hamas will continue to use its proven experience to adapt its military buildup processes to the changing situations on the ground. Read more...

Spotlight on Terrorism – September 2025

During September 2025 fighting in the Gaza Strip and counterterrorism activity in Judea and Samaria continued. The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah continued despite IDF strikes on Hezbollah targets. The Houthis continued attacking Israeli territory; The IDF continued aerial and ground attacks on terrorist targets throughout the Strip and began a ground maneuver inside Gaza City. Ten IDF soldiers were killed. Commanders and operatives in the military wings of Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and other terrorist organizations were eliminated, including operatives involved in the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre, and operatives who held hostages. An attempted strike on the Hamas leadership in Qatar failed. Five rockets were fired at Israeli territory during September; There were four terrorist attacks compared with one in August; six Israeli civilians and three IDF soldiers were killed. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations across Judea and Samaria, during which rockets were found and a network operating under the direction of Hamas' headquarters in Turkey was exposed; The IDF continued operations against Hezbollah's violations of the ceasefire which went into effect on November 27, 2024, and against the organization's attempts to reconstruct its military capabilities. At least 13 Hezbollah operatives were eliminated, including one involved in directing terrorism from Syria and another operating in the Iranian Imam Hussein Division, and military facilities were attacked. An operative from the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese Brigades for Resistance to the Israeli Occupation was eliminated; Suspects planning to attack IDF forces in southern Syria were detained, and weapons and missile depots were attacked; The Houthis claimed responsibility for 26 ballistic missile and UAV attacks on Israel. The IDF spokesperson reported the interception of nine ballistic missiles and 12 UAVs, with additional missiles disintegrating en route to Israel; three UAVs hit Eilat, Israel's southernmost city, and Ramon Airport, injuring more than 20 people. The IDF attacked Houthi regime targets in Yemen twice. Read more...

Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s New Leader: From Jihadist to Stateman?

On December 8, 2024, rebels led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa, aka Abu Muhammad al-Julani, captured Damascus and overthrew the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after a 12-day military campaign, and al-Sharaa became the de facto ruler of Syria; Ahmed al-Sharaa's ideology changed throughout his life, transforming him from a youth raised in an upper-middle class family in Syria to a jihadist activist in the ranks of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Iraq, and eventually to one of the prominent leaders of the rebellion against the Assad regime in Syria. The transformations were reflected in his positions regarding the concept of jihad, his public disassociation from al-Qaeda and ISIS, and changes in his attire and image both in Syria and toward the international community; This study deals with al-Sharaa, his life, the events that influenced him, and his beliefs and ideology as they evolved over more than two decades of activity within Salafi-jihadi movements and the struggle against the Syrian regime; In ITIC assessment, the ambivalence in al-Sharaa's positions and the changes in his conduct over the years were intended to ensure the survival of his organization but also indicated his ideological flexibility and political pragmatism. He is likely to continue presenting himself as a pragmatic figure to secure popular and international support for his emerging rule. However, it remains to be seen whether the ideological positions he developed as a Salafi-jihadi leader will be manifested in his role as the political leader of Syria, including his previously expressed aspiration to lead jihad to "liberate al-Aqsa." Read more...

The Power Groups in Syria after the Fall of the Assad Regime

On November 27, 2024, armed groups opposing the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, led by the Islamist-jihadist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression against Syrian army forces and their allies in northwest Syria. Other groups, sponsored by Turkey, initiated the Operation Dawn of Liberation in the Aleppo area, while another coalition of rebel organizations took control of southern Syria. On December 8, 2024, the rebels occupied Damascus and overthrew the Assad regime; The campaign was managed by three umbrella groups: the al-Fatah al-Mubin Operations Room led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the pro-Turkish Syrian National Army and the Southern Operations Room. Each was made up of organizations, units and political entities with ideological, religious and ethnic differences and varying interests; Also to be taken into account are the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a militia led by Kurdish forces and supported by the United States, whose objective is to strengthen Kurdish control in northern Syria and which is currently in conflict with the new power structures in Syria; The factions which have taken control in Syria have yet to issue official statements regarding Israel, even in light of IDF strikes on strategic facilities across Syria and the seizure of the buffer zone in the Golan Heights; Despite the cooperation of revolutionary forces in overthrowing Assad's regime and statements from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani) about his desire to establish a government representing all Syrians, the large number of groups and conflicting interests are likely to lead to internal conflicts and exacerbate the chaos within Syria. However, if the parties learn from mistakes made in other parts of the Middle East after the overthrow of authoritarian regimes, such as Iraq and Libya, and manage to find an inclusive formula which meets the interests of the various groups and communities, in ITIC assessment, in the long term opportunities exist for stabilization in Syria. Read more...

Spotlight on Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (August 25– September 1, 2025)

IDF forces continued extensive aerial and ground attacks in the Gaza Strip, focusing on the eastern neighborhoods of Gaza City in preparation for the expected takeover of the city, and eliminated the spokesperson of the Hamas military wing and the head of ISIS's "Palestine" district. The bodies of two Israeli civilians kidnapped in the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre were recovered. An IDF soldier was killed in Khan Yunis; Hamas rejected the statement of American mediator Steve Witkoff that the movement was responsible for placing obstacles in the path of the negotiations for a ceasefire and the release of hostages, and claimed that Israel was ignoring the proposal and carrying out a "massacre" [sic] in Gaza; The IDF announced the creation of two new centers to facilitate the distribution of food to Gazans in the southern part of the Strip; Dozens of vessels with hundreds of pro-Palestinian activists set sail from Barcelona as part of an international flotilla intended to "lift the blockade" on the Gaza Strip; A senior Hamas figure rejected the American plan to evacuate Gazans and turn the Strip into an economic and tourist zone under American administration for ten years. Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Mahmoud Abbas said he would agree to an Arab or international partnership for administering the Strip alongside the PA; The American administration announced that it would not issue entry visas to Mahmoud Abbas and senior PA and PLO figures ahead of the UN General Assembly session in September 2025. Read more...

Spotlight on Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (July 15 – 22, 2025)

IDF forces continued extensive air and ground attacks on terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip and launched a ground operation in Deir al-Balah for the first time since the beginning of the war. Hamas and other terrorist organization commanders involved in the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre were eliminated. Two IDF soldiers were killed in the fighting; Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas continued without a resolution. Hamas said they were reviewing the new maps delivered from Israel and continued to claim they agreed to all proposals and that Israel was the party delaying progress; Hamas continued to promote the "hunger narrative" despite the ongoing entry of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. The Gaza Humanitarian Aid Fund accused Hamas of responsibility for the deaths of about 20 people in a riot that broke out after armed men were seen among civilians waiting near an aid distribution point; The ship Handala sailed from Italy en route to the Gaza Strip with 20 pro-Palestinian activists aboard, after claims of a "deliberate sabotage attempt."; A new civilian initiative in the Gaza Strip called for the establishment of a civilian-executive body led by Egypt to manage daily life until Palestinian unity was achieved and the transfer of negotiation management with Israel to the PLO and the Palestinian Authority; Israeli security forces continued extensive counterterrorism activity in Judea and Samaria and detained terrorists who were planning attacks; Senior Palestinian Authority officials, led by Mahmoud Abbas, escalated their rhetoric against Israel on the international stage, accusing it of "mass killings" in the Gaza Strip, Judea and Samaria. Mahmoud Abbas announced new elections for the Palestinian National Council by the end of 2025. Hamas accused the move of being unilateral and contrary to prior understandings. Read more...

The Turkish IHH, which led the Mavi Marmara flotilla, operates in the Gaza Strip and is involved in its reconstruction

The Turkish IHH organization announced the launch of a project to clear rubble and open blocked roads in the Gaza Strip as part of reconstruction efforts, following the declaration of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The organization was involved in launching flotillas to the Gaza Strip, foremost of which was the Mavi Marmara flotilla which ended in a violent confrontation with IDF forces in May 2010 and the Global Sumud ("resilience''') flotilla, which was halted by the IDF in October 2025; The IHH is an NGO founded in 1992 and with close ties to the Turkish government. It promotes radical Islamist, anti-Israeli and anti-Western activity. Bülent Yıldırım, the head of the organization, has repeatedly made anti-Israeli and antisemitic statements; The IHH also has ties with Hamas and was outlawed in Israel in 2008 due to its involvement in a network of charity associations which raised funds for Hamas institutions abroad; This study is based on dozens of report issued about the IHH by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center (ITIC) since 2010. It summarizes the main aspects of the ties between the organization and Hamas and the central role Bülent Yıldırım plays, in cooperation with Hamas, in the campaign to delegitimize Israel; In ITIC assessment, the IHH's involvement in reconstruction activity in the Gaza Strip may be another way of strengthening Hamas' influence over affairs in the Strip even after the ceasefire goes into effect. The locating of Hamas headquarters in Turkey, which is one of the sponsors of the ceasefire agreement, and the ties between the movement and the IHH, may also provide Hamas with a direct channel for transferring funds and equipment to restore the military wing, under the cover of humanitarian aid. In addition, the direct connection between the IHH and the Turkish government, one of the signatories to the ceasefire agreement and an unreserved supporter of Hamas, gives the Turkish regime a foothold in the Gaza Strip and increases its regional influence on Israel's border. Read more...

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (August 18 – 25, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah facilities and eliminated terrorist operatives as part of the continued activity against Hezbollah's presence south Lebanon, which is in violation of the ceasefire understandings, and against the organization's efforts to rebuild its military capabilities and restore its arsenal. The forces attacked weapons depots and rocket and missile launchers in south Lebanon and eliminated three Hezbollah terrorist operatives; Hezbollah condemned the return of an Israeli citizen who had been held in Lebanon for a year and accused the government of irresponsibility and negligence; The American special envoy to Lebanon, Thomas Barrack, visited Israel in an effort to reduce IDF attacks in Lebanon. The Israeli prime minister's office stated that Israel was prepared to reduce its presence in south Lebanon if Lebanese security forces disarmed Hezbollah; An IDF-Lebanese army coordination mechanism has reportedly transferred hundreds of coordinates of Hezbollah targets since the ceasefire in November 2024, some based on reports from residents in south Lebanon; In preparation for the UN Security Council discussion on extending the UNIFIL mandate, Lebanese leaders emphasized the need for the UN force to remain. Parliament Speaker Berri wondered why the United States, as a guarantor of the ceasefire agreement, was trying to disrupt UNIFIL's activity; It was reported that the Lebanese army was about to finalize the plan to disarm Hezbollah and would present it to the Lebanese government on September 2, 2025. In an attempt to calm tensions following the government's decisions regarding its weapons monopoly, contacts were renewed between the office of the Lebanese president and Hezbollah representatives, who continued to insist the organization did not recognize the government's decisions and demanded they be rescinded. The Shi'ite mufti of Lebanon called Hezbollah's weapons "the weapons of God" and said no one could take them; Syrian security forces continue to prevent weapons from being smuggled from Syria into Lebanon for Hezbollah; The Palestinian Authority and Fatah in Lebanon announced that the transfer to the Lebanese army of a truck full of weapons in the Burj al-Barajneh refugee camp in Beirut symbolized the beginning of disarming the Palestinians in Lebanon, adding that transfers would continue in additional camps in the coming weeks. Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist organizations said they would not give up their weapons until the "end of the Zionist occupation." Read more...

Iran and the Continued Aid to the Axis of Resistance amid the Ceasefire in the Gaza Strip

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip was achieved at a time when Iran and the “Axis of Resistance” which it leads are facing significant challenges at home and in the region, especially in light of the weakening of the axis and the consequences of the “12-Day War” between it and Israel and the United States in June 2025; Senior Iranian officials expressed support in principle for the ceasefire agreement and claimed that Iran had supported every initiative aimed at ending the war over the past two years. However, they expressed doubts about Israel’s commitment to abide by the agreement. In addition, the officials stressed that the decision on the ceasefire was made exclusively by Hamas without any involvement from Tehran. Iran also rejected the invitation to participate in the peace summit in Sharm al-Sheikh, claiming that it could not participate with those who attacked it during the “12-Day War.”; Iran’s state media portrayed the end of the war as a strategic victory for Hamas and the Palestinians, who succeeded in putting the Palestinian issue back at the top of the global agenda, and as a severe defeat for Israel, which did not achieve its goals and was weakened militarily, economically, socially, and internationally; Before and after the ceasefire, senior officials and media outlets in Iran stressed that, despite the challenges and pressures facing the Islamic Republic and the pro-Iranian axis in the region, Tehran has no intention of abandoning its allies. They emphasized the importance of continuing the “resistance” and Iranian support for it. At the same time, Iran continues to deliver aid, including weapons, to its proxies in the region, including the terrorist organizations in Judea and Samaria, Hezbollah, and the Houthis; In the ITIC’s assessment, the end of the war in the Gaza Strip is not expected to bring about a significant change in Iran’s policy or put an end to its efforts to expand its influence in the Palestinian arena and to continue providing aid to Hamas and the other Palestinian terrorist organizations. In Tehran’s assessment, Hamas’ continued presence in the Gaza Strip and Judea and Samaria may also provide it with future opportunities to rebuild the movement’s capabilities and preserve some of Iran’s influence, despite the operational, logistical, and financial constraints that limit Iran’s continued support for the Palestinian terrorist organizations. At the same time, Iran is expected to continue its support for the other components of the “Axis of Resistance” in the region, first and foremost Hezbollah, which is in the midst of a recovery process despite the IDF’s attacks and the demand for the organization to disarm, and the Houthis, who are taking advantage of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip to continue acquiring weapons and improving their offensive capabilities. Read more...

The Houthis-Israel Confrontation Following the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip

Following the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip the leader of the Houthis ordered a suspension of direct attacks on Israeli territory and vessels "identified with Israel" in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, as he had during the previous ceasefire at the beginning of 2025; According to the Houthi leadership, despite the cessation of attacks, they support the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and are monitoring Israel's implementation of the ceasefire. They threatened there would be "serious consequence" if Israel resumed fighting or violated the ceasefire; The Houthis used the mourning notices for the death of Chief of Staff Muhammad Abd al-Karim al-Ghamari, who was killed in an Israeli strike at the end of August 2025, to threaten retaliation and reiterate their commitment to continuing jihad against Israel; Since early October 2025 Yemeni forces opposing the Houthis have reported the interception of maritime and overland military shipments en route to Houthi-controlled areas, suspected of having been sent from Iran. The shipments contained weapons components, UAVs and other advanced equipment; In ITIC assessment, the Houthis will not resume their attacks and will respect the ceasefire as long as it continues. However, a renewal of fighting by Israel, whether initiated or in response to Hamas violations, could lead the Houthis to resume attacks on Israel. Likewise, an escalation in Lebanon or Judea and Samaria would provide the Houthis with a pretext to renew attacks to strengthen their position as leaders of the "resistance axis."Meanwhile, in all probability the Houthis will continue to smuggle weapons from Iran to strengthen their military capabilities. Read more...