Tag Archives: ISIS

The International Coalition Campaign against ISIS – Initial Analysis* (First Six Months)

Published: 04/03/2015

Left: Kurdish fighters in Kobanî do a victory dance after the city was taken from ISIS (Facebook page affiliated with the Peshmerga, January 26 2015). Right: ISIS establishes itself in Libya. An ISIS military display in the Libyan city of Sirte (Twitter account affiliated with ISIS, February 18, 2015).

Overview

1. On September 10, 2014, American President Barack Obama announced the launching of a comprehensive campaign against ISIS aimed to "degrade and ultimately destroy" it. The campaign strategy had several aspects: intensive airstrikes in Syria and Iraq; strengthening local forces in Syria and Iraq (the Iraqi army, the Kurdish forces, the so-called moderate Syrian rebel organizations); damaging ISIS's sources of power (especially its financial resources); and improving the methods used by the United States and the international community to cope with the incidence of foreign fighters joining ISIS. All that was intended to weaken ISIS without significant American forces on the ground in Syria or Iraq.

2. To implement the campaign, within a relatively short period of time the United States put together an international coalition of Western and Arab countries for active (if symbolic) participation or support. Some of the Western allies (particularly France and Britain) joined the United States in carrying out airstrikes in Iraq, while a number of Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan and Bahrain) carried out airstrikes in Syria. Jordan also joined in attacking ISIS targets in Iraq after the captured Jordanian pilot was burned to death by ISIS operatives. Egypt carried out airstrikes against ISIS in Libya after 21 Egyptian Copts were beheaded, although not as part of the coalition (on February 16, 2015).

3. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that 1,601 people had been killed in Syria by coalition force attacks between September 23, 2014 (when the airstrikes began) and February 23, 2015. Of them, 1,465 were ISIS operatives, most of them not Syrians (Syriahr.com, February 23, 2015). The number of fatalities relates mainly to Kobanî and probably does not include ISIS operatives killed in other locations in Syria and Iraq. In ITIC assessment the overall number of ISIS fatalities is several thousand. That would indicate that the airstrikes and the losses incurred by ISIS in the fighting hurt the organization, which has a limited order of battle (it is generally estimated that the organization has between 25,000 and 30,000 operatives). Nevertheless, at this point ISIS's losses have not significantly undermined its military capabilities or its control of large sections of the population in Syria and Iraq.

4. The coalition campaign against ISIS is expected to last several years (at least until 2019, according to some American estimates), and may extend beyond the borders of Syria and Iraq. However, at this point, half a year after the launching of the anti-ISIS campaign, it is possible to form an initial assessment of its impact on ISIS, and of the strengths and weaknesses of the coalition's strategies.

5. The first six months of the campaign indicate no clear-cut balance between success and failure:

1) Syria and Iraq

A. The coalition, with the support (significant, in ITIC assessment) of local forces, has succeeded in containing the spread of ISIS to other regions and has kept it from cleaning out pockets of resistance in extensive areas under its control (the provinces of Al-Anbar in Iraq and Deir al-Zor, Al-Raqqah and Al-Hasakah in Syria). ISIS's most outstanding failure during the past half year was the blow dealt by the reinforced Kurdish YPG forces in Kobanî (Ayn al-Arab) after four months of fighting (which began after the coalition campaign was launched). In Tikrit, north of Baghdad, ISIS is currently facing an attack by the Iraqi army to retake the city.

B. The coalition attacks resulted in a significant decrease in ISIS' revenues, especially oil revenues. That harmed its ability to govern (i.e., providing civilian services to the large population under its control). However, the continuing airstrikes and the decrease in revenue have not yet shaken its hold over the extensive areas it conquered in Syria and Iraq, especially its two main strongholds, Mosul (Iraq) and Al-Raqqah (Syria).

2) ISIS's successes beyond the borders of Syria and Iraq:

A. While contained in Syria and Iraq, ISIS is establishing itself in other Middle Eastern countries, using local jihadi organizations which swore allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and created "provinces" of the self-declared Islamic State. Its most prominent successes have been in Libya and Egypt (focused in the Sinai Peninsula). Thus ISIS has created a potential threat to Egypt, Israel, and the countries of North Africa and southern Europe.

B. ISIS also had two important successes in the international arena during the past half year: one was that the influx of foreign fighters who joined its ranks continued (although it has faced certain difficulties created by the preventive measures taken by various countries). The other was that jihadist operatives in Western countries (not necessarily those who joined ISIS in Syria) responded positively to ISIS's propaganda campaign and carried out attacks in their own countries against government and Jewish targets, especially in the coalition countries (so far apparently the attacks have not been orchestrated or organized).

C. ISIS's jihadist ideology is spreading rapidly and its image and brand as a leading jihadi organization remain undamaged and intact. ISIS is ahead in its rivalry with Ayman al-Zawahiri's Al-Qaeda, at least for the present.

3. The international campaign focuses on Iraq and Syria, however, during the past half year it has been faced with a series of challenges in other countries. The main challenges are the spread of ISIS to other Arab-Muslim countries; the influx of foreign fighters joining the ranks of the jihadi organizations; the increasing jihadi terrorism in Western countries and the strong attraction of Salafist-jihadi ideology in both the Arab-Muslim world and the Muslim communities in the West. As the campaign continues, the coalition will have to reexamine its concepts and strategies in the face of the challenges.

6. The international campaign focuses on Iraq and Syria, however, during the past half year it has been faced with a series of challenges in other countries. The main challenges are the spread of ISIS to other Arab-Muslim countries; the influx of foreign fighters joining the ranks of the jihadi organizations; the increasing jihadi terrorism in Western countries and the strong attraction of Salafist-jihadi ideology in both the Arab-Muslim world and the Muslim communities in the West. As the campaign continues, the coalition will have to reexamine its concepts and strategies in the face of the challenges.

7. As far as Israel is concerned, the establishment of ISIS and other global jihad organizations in Syria and Iraq poses two primary threats:

1) The increased threat of terrorism from Israel's southern and northern borders:

A. The terrorist threats to Israel's southern borders increased when Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, the leading terrorist organization in Egypt, became an active "province" in the Islamic State (although the organization clearly gives priority to its campaign against the Egyptian regime).

B. In the north, ISIS does not yet have a foothold in the Golan Heights (and in south Syria in general). Of the rebel organizations deployed in the central and southern Golan Heights, Al-Nusra Front, the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda, is the strongest (although the priority of Al-Nusra Front and the rebel organizations is currently fighting the Syrian regime, which, with support from Hezbollah, is trying to oust them from the Golan Heights).

2) Turning Jewish institutions and Jewish figures in Western countries into targets of terrorism: during the past half year jihadists in Western countries, some of them in solidarity with ISIS, carried out a wave of individual terrorist attacks on governmental targets. At the same time, Jewish targets were also attacked (in Belgium, Denmark and France attacks targeted a Jewish museum, a synagogue and a kosher supermarket). In ITIC assessment attacks on Jewish targets will continue. In addition global jihad supporters may also attack Israeli targets in Western countries.

The Structure of this Study

8. Five aspects of ISIS's successes and failures will be examined:

1) Containing ISIS's wave of success in Syria and Iraq.

2) ISIS's establishment beyond Syria and Iraq (i.e., Egypt and Libya).

3) Countries where ISIS has been contained or has failed, so far, to establish itself.

4) The lack of significant growth in ISIS's order of battle.

5) The wave of jihadi-inspired terrorist attacks in Western countries.

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[*] Complete Version

Spotlight on the Global Jihad (February 19-25, 2015)

Published: 25/02/2015

ISIS operatives at the graduation ceremony at the Abu Mus'ab al-Zarqawi camp in the Nineveh province (ISIS-affiliated website, February 19, 2015)

Photos from the suicide bombing attack against an Iraqi Army position (ISIS-affiliated Twitter account, February 18, 2015)

Two suicide bombers in the ranks of ISIS in Libya (ISIS’s media arm in Libya)

Burning musical instruments (ISIS’s media arm in Libya)

the Belgian Abu Omar (Dabiq, No. 7)

Abu Omar with his two friends, who went to Belgium to carry out an attack and were killed there.

Call to conquer Rome. The word Rome (in the Arabic source) is marked in black (ISIS-affiliated forum, February 20, 2015)

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Main events of the week^[1]

This week, there were no significant changes in the various combat zones in Iraq and Syria. YPG’s Kurdish forces continue to repel ISIS from the rural area of Kobani and this week it was reported that they were nearing the city of Tal al-Abyad, which is controlled by ISIS.
As the fighting continued in the area of Kobani, this week, Turkey evacuated a Turkish enclave in Syrian territory located about 35 km south of the Turkish-Syrian border. Suleyman Shah, grandfather of the founder of the Ottoman Empire, was buried there. The evacuation, carried out by the Turkish Army and Turkish intelligence services, was accomplished without confrontation with ISIS.
ISIS, which is establishing its presence in Libya, used social networks for recruiting foreign fighters to fight in the ranks of the organization in Libya. Suicide bombers from the ISIS branch in Libya carried out attacks against targets affiliated with the secular Libyan government, based in eastern Libya. ISIS operatives continue to threaten Italy and the entire Christian world (“to conquer Rome”).

The international campaign against ISIS

US and coalition airstrikes

During the week, there were several dozen airstrikes by US and coalition forces in Syria and Iraq. Following are the locations of the airstrikes (US Department of Defense website):

In Syria, airstrikes were carried out in the areas of Al-Hasakah, Deir al-Zor and Kobani (Ayn al-Arab). The airstrikes destroyed ISIS battle positions and damaged ISIS units and vehicles. An airstrike near Al-Hasakah damaged an oil drilling facility used by ISIS.
In Iraq, airstrikes were carried out in the areas of Baiji, Kirkuk, Mosul, Tal Afar, Al-Assad and Rutba. The airstrikes damaged battle positions, checkpoints, vehicles, buildings, weapons and heavy machinery, among other things.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced that a fighter plane squadron of its air force, based in Jordan, carried out airstrikes on ISIS positions and areas occupied by ISIS (apparently in Syria). The targets attacked included oil refining facilities controlled by ISIS. The squadron came to Jordan on the orders of UAE President Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan (Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, February 17, 2015).
The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that 1,601 people were killed in coalition airstrikes in Syria between September 23, 2014, when the airstrikes began, and February 23, 2015. Of those killed, 1,465 were ISIS operatives, most of whom were not Syrian. The SOHR noted that in its assessment, the number of ISIS operatives killed in coalition airstrikes is even higher. This is because ISIS customarily conceals the number of its losses and because of the difficulty in documenting all the places where airstrikes were carried out (syriahr.com, February 23, 2015).

According to American reports, the Iraqi Army is preparing to recapture Mosul

According to statements by senior US Army officials, the Iraqi Army is preparing to recapture the city of Mosul in the spring of 2015:

During a press briefing, a senior official at the US Army Central Command said that the US intends to set up a site for training troops in Saudi Arabia, and added that preparations for opening a training site in Turkey were nearly completed. According to the official, preparing the forces to regain control of Mosul is underway and the operation is expected to begin in April-May 2015. The operation will be carried out byIraqi Army forces, Kurdish Peshmerga forces, Iraqi police forces, and forces from local (Sunni) tribes. The US will help the Iraqi Army regain control of Mosul by various means, including supplying military equipment, training, and sharing of intelligence. The US spokesman did not rule out the possibility of American ground assistance (US Department of State website, February 19, 2015).
A senior US military official said that 25,000 Iraqi soldiers will take part in the attack on Mosul, which is expected to take place in April-May 2015. He said that the city of Mosul had been held since June 2015 by 1,000-2,000 jihadi operatives. He added that it remained unclear whether it would be necessary to advance the American advisers in Iraq to the front in order to coordinate the attacks. According to the US military official, the high-quality core of the Iraqi Army is its five experienced brigades, consisting of around 10,000 soldiers. These brigades are currently engaged in training and coordination with the Kurdish force (The New York Times, February 19, 2015).

International summit on countering “violent extremism”

The international White House Summit on Countering Violent Extremism was held in Washington DC on February 18-19, 2015 (Note: for reasons of political correctness, there is no mention of the Islamic-jihadi nature of the terrorism in question). The summit was attended by senior representatives from over 60 countries worldwide. Addressing the summit, US President Barack Obama stressed thatthe West is not at war with Islam. President Obama detailed the efforts to deal with the threats of “violent extremism,” including rejecting the “twisted ideologies” of terrorist groups, addressing the economic and political grievances among disadvantaged population groups and mobilizing the local population to take part in the struggle. US Secretary of State John Kerry said that the US State Department will increase its support for Interpol in dealing with the phenomenon of foreign fighters (White House website, February 19, 2015).

Main developments in Syria

Aleppo province

In the area of Aleppo, battles took place between ISIS operatives and Shiite militias. According to Orient News TV, about 200 Shiite militia operatives, who came to Syria from Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan, have been killed fighting against ISIS in the northern part of the Aleppo province (Orient News, February 18, 2015).
On February 19, 2015, the owner of an ISIS-affiliated Twitter account posted a photo showing around 35 people who were captured by ISIS. He noted that the prisoners belong to Hezbollah or to Shiite militias supported by it. The photo also shows three bodies in uniform (ISIS-affiliated Twitter account, January 19, 2015). At this stage, it is unclear whether the prisoners in question are Hezbollah operatives or operatives from the Shiite militias supported by Iran and Hezbollah.

Left: The bodies of the three militia operatives killed in battles with ISIS in the Aleppo province (ISIS-affiliated Twitter account, January 19, 2015) Right: Shiite prisoners captured by ISIS in Aleppo

Damascus province

Near the town of Al-Set Zaynab, a car bomb attack was carried out at a checkpoint manned by the Troops for the Defense of the Homeland (a semi-military force of the Syrian regime) and Hezbollah operatives. The explosion killed six people and wounded more than 10. The town of Al-Set Zaynab is a center for Hezbollah operatives and Shiite militias who come from Iran, Iraq and Lebanon to fight in Syria. On several occasions in the past, jihadi organizations tried to attack the Al-Set Zaynab compound and the forces that protect it, including through the use of suicide bombers and car bombs.

There are dozens of sites in Syria that are sacred to the Shiites, the most prominent of which is the tomb of Al-Set Zaynab (or Al-Sayyida Zaynab), the daughter of Imam Ali bin Abi Talib, the founder of Shiite Islam, and the granddaughter of the Prophet Muhammad. The tomb is a pilgrimage site for Shiites from around the world, particularly from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, the Gulf States, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. In late 2012 – early 2013, a Shiite militia was established to defend the tomb of Al-Set Zaynab from attacks by elements affiliated with the global jihad. This militia includes Shiite fighters from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan (Al-Arabiya TV, April 5, 2013).

The area of Kobani (Ayn al-Arab)

It was recently reported that Kurdish units (YPG), aided by Peshmerga forces (who reached Syria) and the Free Syrian Army, in coordination with the international coalition forces, have managed to get close to the city of Tal Abyad, which is controlled by ISIS. They also took over areas between Kobani and Tal Abyad, in order to open the roads between the two cities (Al-Safir, February 21, 2015). ISIS, which is now concentrating its troops on this front, has begun to move operatives from the provinces of Deir al-Zor and Al-Raqqah to Tal Abyad (Al-Manar TV, February 23, 2015).

The Kurdish forces (YPG) therefore continue to take advantage of their successful takeover of the city of Kobani, repelling ISIS from the surrounding countryside and expanding their control along the border with Turkey. The ISIS-controlled city of Tal Abyad is located to the west of Kobani and near one of the border crossings leading from Syria to Turkey. If the Kurdish forces manage to take over Tal Abyad,they will establish a territorial control zone for themselves along the Turkish border, presenting a challenge to ISIS.

Evacuation of the tomb of Suleyman Shah enclave in Syria

On the night of February 21-22, 2015, following an advance by ISIS operatives, Turkey evacuated the tomb of Suleyman Shah, Turkish enclave of historic importance in Syria, located south of Kobani (around 35 km south of the border). The evacuation was carried out jointly by the Turkish Army and the Turkish intelligence services, without a confrontation with ISIS operatives.At the end of the operation, which involved UAVs, helicopters, armored vehicles and special forces, the forces blew up the compound. During the evacuation, a Turkish soldier was killed. According to the Turkish Prime Minister, the remains of the tomb are being held temporarily in Turkey and will be moved to another area controlled by the Turkish Army in northern Syria (Hürriyet, February 22, 2015).

The area of the tomb of Suleyman Shah, who was the grandfather of the founder of the Ottoman Empire, was recognized in 1921 as Turkish territory in an agreement signed with France, and it is of historical and symbolic significance for Turkey. Until recently, the compound was manned by around 40 Turkish soldiers. When ISIS reached the area, the Turks found it difficult to transfer supplies to their soldiers and send in replacements. In March 2014, ISIS issued an ultimatum to Turkey, ordering it to evacuate the compound, otherwise they would take it over. Until recently, Turkey did not assent to this demand. Turkey’s response to the demand to evacuate the compound, albeit after such a long time, represents an achievement for ISIS. However, evacuating the enclave may release Turkey from potential pressure from ISIS.

Left: The location of the tomb of Suleyman Shah (Zaman, February 22, 2015) Right: The tomb of Suleyman Shah (www.odatv.com, February 22, 2015)

The area of Al-Qalamoun (the Syrian-Lebanese border)

It was reported that Abu Aisha al-Baniasi, the “Emir” of ISIS in the Al-Qalamoun area, was liquidated following internal disagreements at the top of the organization (Al-Mayadeen, February 23, 2015). His liquidation is liable to weaken ISIS’s position in the area of the Syrian-Lebanese border, which serves as a starting point for operations in Lebanon

Al-Hasakah province

After clashes with ISIS, it was reported that Kurdish forces took over twenty villages in the Al-Hasakah province (Akhbar Al-Aan, February 23, 2015). On the other hand, it was reported that ISIS operatives took over a number of Assyrian villages in the province and that they are holding hostages (Al-Arabiya al-Hadath, February 23, 2015).

Main developments in Iraq

Al-Anbar province

As part of ISIS’s efforts to purge the Al-Anbar province from pockets of resistance, the siege of the city of al-Baghdadi, located near the Al-Assad airport, continued. According to people in the area, around 90% of the city has fallen into the hands of ISIS and at least 1,000 ISIS operatives are taking part in the campaign. An ISIS video about the fighting in al-Baghdadi shows ISIS operatives riding in American armored vehicles and making use of American weapons in their war against the Iraqi security forces and their allies, the Sunni tribes (Washington Post and Reuters, February 13, 2015).

Kirkuk province

On February 22, 2015, the ISIS information office in the Kirkuk province published a video showing 21 prisoners, including 16 Kurdish Peshmerga fighters, three officers from the emergency police force in Kirkuk and two senior Iraqi Army officers. The video shows the prisoners dressed in orange jumpsuits, being led to cages and displayed in the streets to the cheers of the masses. Later they kneel, with an ISIS operative armed with a knife or a rifle standing behind each of them. The prisoners also include senior Iraqi Army officers (a brigadier general and a lieutenant colonel) (ISIS-affiliated forum, February 22, 2015).

Left: ISIS operative addressing the Kurdish people in Kurdish (ISIS-affiliated forum, February 22, 2015) Right and center: Peshmerga fighters captured by ISIS being led and displayed in cages

Salah al-Din province

Iraqi security forces reported the arrest of two relatives of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS. According to Iraqi security forces, both hold senior positions in ISIS (PUK Media, February 15, 2015).

Nineveh province

ISIS has published photos from the graduation ceremony of a military course in the Nineveh province, in which about 65 operatives took part. The course was held at the Abu Mus'ab al-Zarqawi training camp. The photos from the graduation ceremony show masked operatives marching, doing sports exercises and hand-to-hand combat exercises and receiving weapons training (ISIS-affiliated Twitter account and website, February 19, 2015).

Diyala province

In the Diyala province, ISIS carried out two suicide bombing attacks against the Iraqi Army:

On February 18, 2015, a suicide bombing attack against an Iraqi Army position was carried out by means of a truck bomb. The attack was carried out in a village located about 133 km northeast of Baghdad. The suicide bombing attack was carried out by an ISIS operative codenamed Abu Ahmed the Tunisian (ISIS-affiliated Twitter account, January 17, 2015).
On February 16, 2015, a suicide bombing attack was carried out using a captured Iraqi Army APC. The attack was carried out against an Iraqi Army outpost by a suicide bomber codenamed Abu al-Baraa al-Shami. Photos uploaded to an ISIS-affiliated Twitter account show the preparations for the attack, the suicide bomber driving the APC, the APC exploding, the destruction of the outpost, the bodies of Iraqi Army soldiers, and the weapons captured by ISIS (ISIS-affiliated Facebook account, February 16, 2015).

Left: The suicide bomber. Right: The APC used for the attack (ISIS-affiliated Facebook account, February 16, 2015)

The conduct of the Islamic State

ISIS’s entrenchment in northern Iraq: the establishment of the Al-Jazeera and Dijla (Tigris River) provinces

On February 19, 2015, versions of two ISIS communiqués were published, stating that the organization has established two new provinces in northern Iraq, near the Iraq-Syria border (ISIS-affiliated website, February 19, 2015):

Al-Jazeera province – including the area of Sinjar (located west of the city of Mosul, near the Syrian border), Tal Abta (a town southwest of the city of Mosul), Al-Mahalabiya (located east of the city of Mosul), Tal Afar (located west of the city of Mosul) and a number of other places.
Dijla (i.e., Tigris River) province – including the area of Hammam al-Alil (located about 26 km southeast of Mosul), Al-Qyara (located around 68 km south of Mosul), Al-Shirqat (located 134 km west of Kirkuk), Al-Zab (located around 92 kilometers west of Kirkuk), and Al-Khidhir (located around 111 km south of Mosul).

Left: The announcement of the establishment of Dijla as a new ISIS province. Right: The text of the announcement of the establishment of the Al-Jazeera province (ISIS-affiliated website, February 19, 2015)

Criteria for turning a jihadi organization into a province of the Islamic State

In view of the pledges of allegiance to the Islamic State by various organizations, ISIS has published criteria for turning a local organization into an official province of the Islamic State. A local organization that has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State will not be considered a province of the Islamic State unless these criteria are met. The criteria mentioned include the following (Dabiq, No. 7, p. 35):

Public documentation of the pledge of allegiance to the leader of ISIS and the declaration of the establishment of the province.
The appointment of a leader of the province and the establishment of a regional Shura Council.
Formulation of a strategy for the establishment of the organization and the application of Islamic law.
Obtaining confirmation from ISIS that the organization meets the criteria that were set.

In the ITIC’s assessment, these criteria were established after a number of organizations lacking a significant force on the ground pledged allegiance to the leader of ISIS, and in view of the large number of new provinces joining the Islamic State. ISIS was apparently “burned” several times in the past by idle requests for membership in its ranks, and is now trying to“establish order” in its expanding areas of influence.

The opening of new schools in Al-Raqqah

nIt was recently reported that ISIS had opened two new schools in the Al-Raqqah province. The language of instruction at these schools is English and they are intended for children of foreign fighters from Western countries. The schools operate in the morning, five days a week, and are attended by children aged 6-14. The name of one of the schools is Abu Mus'ab al-Zarqawi, and it is intended for boys. The name of the other school is Aisha, and it is intended for girls. At the schools, subjects such as ideology, the life of the Prophet Mohammad, Islamic law, and mathematics will be taught in English. Quran studies in Arabic will also be taught (all4syria, February 23, 2015).

In the ITIC’s assessment, the opening of these schools reflects the importance that ISIS attaches to the educational system that it is establishing in the areas under its control. This system is designed to train a younger generation of jihadists who will join the ranks of ISIS when the time comes. The inclusion of the children of Western foreign fighters in the jihadi education system (in English) carries potential risks for Western countries. When the time comes, these young people are liable to return to their native countries (together with their families) and constitute a source of subversion and terrorism.

Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula

Show of strength by ISIS operatives in the Sinai province

ISIS’s Sinai province organized a procession of cars in southern Sheikh Zuweid, aimed at convincing the people to support them. Masked operatives armed with weapons and equipped with RPG launchers drove a convoy of about 15 vehicles. Leaflets were distributed to residents of the area, calling on them to side with the organization’s operatives in their struggle against the Egyptian security forces (Al-Watan, February 23, 2015). According to eyewitness reports, residents of the area viewed the show of strength, which was an act of defiance against the Egyptian security forces, with relative indifference, for fear of angering the organization’s operatives on the one hand, and the Egyptian security forces on the other (Arabi 21, February 24, 2015).
On February 18, 2015, ISIS’s Sinai province posted photos intended to show the level of military preparedness of ISIS operatives in Sinai in their struggle against the Egyptian Army (ISIS-affiliated website, February 18, 2015). The photos show local jihad operatives riding in SUVs equipped with machine guns (ISIS-affiliated website, February 18, 2015).

Photos showing the military capabilities of ISIS operatives in Sinai against the Egyptian Army (ISIS-affiliated website, February 18, 2015)

The global jihad in other countries

The establishment of ISIS in Libya

ISIS operatives in ISIS’s provinces in Libya continue to carry out terrorist attacks against various targets:

At least two suicide bombers carried out attacks in the city of Qubba, in eastern Libya. More than 40 people were killed and around 70 were injured. The suicide bombing attacks were carried out in the city, which is under the control of the (secular) Libyan government based in eastern Libya. According to a Libyan Army spokesman, one of the suicide bombing attacks was carried out at a gas station. Two other suicide bombing attacks were carried out near the home of the speaker of the House of Parliament and at the headquarters of the security forces. According to the ISIS branch in Libya, these attacks were carried out in response to Egyptian attacks against them in Derna (Yahoo News, February 20, 2015).
On February 22, 2015, ISIS claimed responsibility for an attack against the home of the Iranian ambassador in Tripoli. The Iranians said there were no casualties because Iran’s embassy in Libya has been closed since the summer of 2014. ISIS’s claim of responsibility was posted on Twitter, as follows: “Islamic Caliphate troops carried out a double attack against Iranian Embassy in Tripoli”. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman reported that the ambassador’s residence sustained minor damage (Al-Arabiya TV, February 22, 2015).

ISIS is making efforts to establish and increase its influence in Libya. To that end:

ISIS in Libya recently launched a Twitter campaign designed to recruit foreign fighters into its ranks. The organization called on Muslims to come to Libya and join the fighting in its ranks.
On February 18, 2015, ISIS’s media arm in the province of Barqa (eastern Libya) published a series of photos documenting the activity of its Morality Police (Hisba). The photos show a group of masked operatives burning cigarettes and musical instruments.

Egyptian appeal to the international community to act against ISIS in Libya

Following the killing of the Egyptian Copts in Libya and the Egyptian attacks, Egypt has appealed to countries around the world to help Libya. Speaking before the UN Security Council, the Egyptian foreign minister said that the purpose of Egypt’s appeal to the UN is to emphasize the need to build a broader coalition than the one that was established in Syria and Iraq, in order to assist the Libyan government. He said that the countries of the world must make “strong and real” decisions and take “practical steps” to remove the threat posed by ISIS and similar organizations (Al-Arabiya al-Hadath, February 18, 2015).
On the other hand. the US State Department spokesman said that the fight against ISIS is currently focused on Syria and Iraq and that a decision to expand the operation to additional other locations such as Libya has not yet been made (US Department of State website, February 18, 2015). The meaning of this statement is unwillingness, at least at this stage, to broaden the scope of activities of the US-led international coalition, leaving Egypt to operate outside the coalition.

Counterterrorism and preventive activity

An ISIS operative who attempted to carry out an attack in Belgium managed to return to Syria

Issue No. 7 of Dabiq (ISIS’s English-language organ) published an interview with an ISIS operative codenamed the Belgian Abu Omar (Abdelhamid Abaaoud). In the interview, he talks about his journey from Syria to Belgium together with two friends of his, codenamed Abu Zubayr and the Belgian Abu Khaled. The purpose of their trip was to carry out an attack in Belgium in revenge for its participation in the coalition against ISIS.
According to the Belgian Abu Omar, it took the three men a few months to get to Belgium. They obtained weapons and a safe house and planned to carry out an attack. Their intention was thwarted when Belgian security forces raided the house where they were staying and found explosives and weapons. The Belgian Abu Omar’s two friends were killed in the raid by the security forces and he himself managed to escape and return to Syria (Dabiq, No. 7, p. 72).

The battle for hearts and minds conducted by ISIS

ISIS’s threats “to conquer Rome”

ISIS-affiliated elements recently issued threats entitled “conquer Rome”. On February 20, 2015, an ISIS-affiliated Twitter account published a poster showing the Colosseum in Rome. Alongside the photo it says in Arabic and Italian: “We will not stop fighting until we call ‘Allah Akbar’ and calls to prayer in Rome as conquerors, Allah willing.” The writer emphasized the word Rome (ISIS-affiliated forum, February 20, 2015). Rome is the symbol of Christianity, and conquering it, from ISIS’s perspective, would symbolize the victory of jihadi Islam over the Christians.

The struggle between the Al-Nusra Front and ISIS on social networks

The Al-Nusra Front, Al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria, has set up a website called “The Islamic State, the Caliphate of Tyranny and Corruption”. The purpose of the website is to attack ISIS, whose presence on social networks, especially Twitter, is much broader than that of the Al-Nusra Front. A manifesto published on the website accuses ISIS of attacking Muslims in Syria with false propaganda, presenting themselves as Muslims acting in the name of Islam, and posing a real danger to Islamic society at the conceptual, military and political levels (http://www.kfasad.ga2h.com/, an official website of the Al-Nusra Front, February 18, 2015).

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Spotlight on the Global Jihad (February 12-18, 2015)

Published: 18/02/2015

Pictures from the clashes between ISIS and the Iraqi Kurdish militias near Samara (File sharing website, February 13, 2015).

Muhammad Sa'ad, the Egyptian officer captured by ISIS operatives in the Sinai Peninsula (Twitter.com)

The 21 Egyptian Copts before they were beheaded. From the video of the execution produced by ISIS's Al-Hayat and posted to the social networks (Twitter, February 15, 2015).

Fouad Belkacem, Sharia4Belgium leader, with the ISIS flag (Al-Alem TV, February 11, 2015).

Sharia4Belgium video with activists holding the ISIS flag. The video claimed the Al-Qaeda flag would soon fly over the palaces in Europe and the White House (MEMRI.org, December 11, 2011)

French-speaking ISIS operatives threaten to carry out more terrorist attacks (YouTube on an ISIS-affiliated site, February 14, 2015).

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Main events of the week^{^[1]}

The main events this past week were the shooting attacks in Copenhagen, carried out by the same terrorist. The first targeted an event held to sponsor art and freedom of expression, the second a synagogue where a Jewish bat mitzvah celebration was in progress. Two people were killed (one Jewish) and five wounded. ISIS operatives continue to threaten Western European countries with more terrorist attacks.
In Libya ISIS continues to strengthen its foothold. In a showcase massacre in the "Tripoli province" of the Islamic State in Libya, 21 Egyptian Coptic immigrant workers were abducted and beheaded on a beach. The beheadings were accompanied with a threat to the Christian world from the knife-wielding executioner: “We will conquer Rome, by Allah’s permission." Egypt's immediate reaction (the day after the beheadings) was to carry out airstrikes on ISIS targets located in the areas of Dernah and Sirte in Libya.
In Syria and Iraq there were no significant new developments. In Syria ISIS, under pressure from the Kurds, continues its retreat from the rural area around Kobanî; in Iraq it had local successes in the regions around Samara and in the Al-Anbar province.

Two shooting attacks in Copenhagen^[2]

On the afternoon of February 14, 2015, and at about one a.m. on February 15, 2015, there were two shooting attacks in Copenhagen, Denmark, both carried out by the same terrorist operative. The first occurred during a cultural event in a café in the northern part of the city, and the second during a Jewish bat mitzvah celebration in a synagogue. Two people were killed and five wounded. On February 16, 2015, tens of thousands of people attended a memorial gathering for the victims held in the center of Copenhagen.
The initial information about the attacks is the following:

The shooting attack at the Krudttoenden Café in the northern part of Copenhagen: At 15:30 hours on February 14, 2015, a terrorist entered the café and opened fire. At the time an event entitled "Art, Blasphemy and the Freedom of Expression" was in progress. The terrorist fired scores of bullets. One of those present was Lars Vilks, a Swedish cartoonist who published allegedly insulting cartoons depicting the prophet Muhammad in 2007 (for which he received death threats). Also present was François Zimeray, the French ambassador to Denmark, who, after the terrorist attack on the editorial offices of Charlie Hebdo, spoke in favor of the right to freedom of expression in Denmark. Vilks and Zimeray might have been the targets of the attack. Finn Norgaard, 55, a local movie producer was killed and three policemen were wounded.
The shooting attack at the Jewish bat mitzvah celebration in the Krystalgade synagogue: At 01:00 hours on February 15, 2015, an armed man entered the synagogue on Krystalgade street in central Copenhagen and opened fire. Dan Uzan, 37, a member of the Copenhagen Jewish community, was securing the entrance and was shot in the head and killed. Two policemen also securing the event were wounded. The armed terrorist fled the scene.

The Danish police said in an announcement that based on video surveillance films, one man carried out both attacks. He was cornered and killed in a shootout with the Danish police at the Copenhagen train station (near his house) about four hours after the attack on the synagogue. According to the Danish media, he was Omar Abd al-Hamid al-Hussein, 22, born in Copenhagen, the son of parents of Palestinian origin. He was known to the Danish law enforcement authorities for committing violent felonies and gun possession (he was released from prison two weeks before the attacks). Weapons were found when his house was searched. After the attacks two individuals were taken into custody on suspicion of aiding and abetting. The Danish security services have not yet revealed what motivated him, however, they are of the opinion he operated alone and had been influenced by the attack on the offices of Charlie Hebdo in Paris.
According to the Israeli daily newspaper Haaretz correspondent in Copenhagen, Omar Abd al-Hamid al-Hussein's name was on a short list of prisoners who had undergone radical Islamization while in prison, but nevertheless his activities were not being monitored. According to the Danish daily newspaper Ekstra Bladet, Omar al-Hussein posted a video supporting jihad to his Facebook page a short time before the attacks (Haaretz.co.il, February 17, 2015).

The terrorist modus operandi in Copenhagen was similar to the attacks carried out in Paris in January 2015. In both instances they were carried out by local jihadist or jihadists who had been influenced and inspired by global jihad organizations to carry out attacks on individuals regarded as having insulted the prophet Muhammad, combined with attacks on Jewish community institutions. Omar Abd al-Hamid al-Hussein may have been copying the attacks in Paris. In ITIC assessment one of the factors responsible for the attack was the intensive propaganda and incitement of ISIS and other jihadi organizations calling on Muslims in Western countries to carry out attacks where they live if they cannot join the fighting in Syria and Iraq. Such incitement may have also motivated jihadist Muslims living in Denmark.^[3]

The international campaign against ISIS

US and coalition airstrikes

nThis past week the coalition forces carried out dozens of airstrikes in Syria and Iraq:

· In Syria airstrikes were carried out in the Al-Raqqah province, the rural areas around Kobanî, Deir al-Zor and Al-Hasakah. The strikes hit tanks and APCs, military posts, a bunker, buildings, control points and oil pumping facilities.

· In Iraq airstrikes were carried out in the areas of Mosul, Kirkuk, Tel Afar, Al- Asad, Sinjar and Al-Fallujah. The strikes hit ISIS units, bulldozers, armed vehicles, weapons, posts and buildings.

Remarks by American envoy to the anti-ISIS coalition

John Allen, the American envoy to the international anti-ISIS coalition, was interviewed by the Jordanian News Agency in Petra. He said the following:

The objective of the American-led coalition has not changed and is still to defeat ISIS. An extensive ground offensive will be carried out "very shortly," led by Iraqi forces. The coalition forces have teams of advisors on the ground.
From the beginning Jordan has played a leading role in the anti-ISIS coalition. He praised Jordan's humanitarian and political role, adding that Jordan prevented foreign fighters from reaching Syria and Iraq.
The coalition supports and trains the [Sunni] tribes. The tribesmen are an effective anti-ISIS force in the Al-Anbar province in Iraq as they were an effective anti-Al-Qaeda force in the same region in the past.
The situation in Syria is more difficult than the one in Iraq. That is because the United States has partners in Iraq, in the form of the Iraqi government and its head, Abadi, whereas the Assad regime in Syria is not a United States partner.
Asked if American weapons and training assistance to the Iraqi army was being delayed, John Allen answered that the United States was doing its best to provide the Iraqi army with weapons and training as quickly as possible.

Main developments in Syria

Hama

On February 12, 2015, an ISIS-affiliated Twitter account claimed that Hama had been declared a new Islamic State province. At this stage it is unclear what ISIS's strength in Hama actually is.

Hama is declared a new Islamic State province (an ISIS-affiliated Twitter account, February 12, 2015).

Aleppo province

Battles continue in the Aleppo province between ISIS and its rivals in various locations. There is still fighting in the rural area around Kobanî between the Kurdish YPG forces and ISIS forces that retreated from the city. Reportedly, 75 ISIS operatives were killed in the clashes and the Kurdish forces had taken over several additional areas (Syriahr.com, February 15, 2015). ISIS operatives were also involved in clashes with the Syrian army in the region of the city of Suran (about 60 kilometers, or 37 miles, northwest of Aleppo).

Main developments in Iraq

Salah al-Din province

Battles continue in the Salah al-Din province between ISIS and the Shi'ite militias in the region of Samara, north of Baghdad. An ISIS-affiliated Twitter account posted a claim that ISIS operatives had conquered the region of Al-Ukhaydir, near Samara. The photo posted with the claim shows ISIS operatives crossing the Tigris river in boats after the region had been cleared (ISIS-affiliated Twitter account, file sharing website, February 13, 2015). It was also reported that ISIS operatives had taken control of the town of Al-Dujail, about 20 kilometers, or 12 miles, north of Samara (Islamtoday.net, February 12, 2015).

In the region of the oil city of Baiji battles continue between ISIS and the Iraqi Shi'ite militias. On February 14, 2015, ISIS posted pictures of a booby-trapped truck attack carried out by a suicide bomber nicknamed Abu Jaafar the Uzbek, apparently on February 5, 2015. It targeted Iraqi army forces near Baiji.

The booby-trapped truck that exploded near Baiji, Iraq, and the suicide bomber who carried out the attack (ISIS-affiliated Twitter account, February 13 and 14, 2015).

Al-Anbar province

ISIS continues its efforts to clear the province of pockets of resistance. ISIS operatives took control of large areas of the town of Albaghdadi, northwest of Ramadi. According to the Washington Post, about 1,000 ISIS operatives participated in the attack on Albaghdadi (Longwarjournal.feb 13, date, 2015)

Kirkuk province

On February 13, 2015, an ISIS-affiliated Twitter account posted pictures of Kurdish Peshmerga fighters captured by ISIS. They were caged and dressed in orange, a possible warning that ISIS was preparing to burn them alive, as it had the Jordanian pilot.

Caged Kurdish Peshmerga fighters captured by ISIS (ISIS-affiliated Twitter account, February 13, 2015)

The conduct of the Islamic State

Cyber warfare waged by ISIS-affiliated hackers

On February 13, 2015, an ISIS-affiliated Twitter account posted the claim that ISIS-affiliated hackers had hacked into the websites of the Islamic Emirates' Al-Ittihad newspaper and the Abu Dhabi TV channel.

The Orient TV channel reported that ISIS had hacked into its website and posted threats and insults targeting the owners and employees. The ISIS hackers changed the site's background and wording (Orient TV, February 12, 2015).

American estimates of the number of ISIS operatives

American intelligence officials estimate that ISIS has between 20,000 and 30,000 operatives in Syria and Iraq (Nytimes.com, February 14, 2015). That is the same as the CIA estimate published a number of months ago.^[4] However, apparently the relative number of foreign fighters in the ranks of ISIS in Syria and Iraq is rising.
In American assessment, the coalition airstrikes in Iraq and Syria have not slowed the rate at which foreign fighters enlist in the ranks of ISIS and other jihadi groups. AP, quoting American intelligence officials, noted that today there were about 20,000 foreign fighters in the ranks of ISIS from 90 different countries, at least 3,400 of them from Western countries. According to American intelligence officials, about 150 American citizens tried, some successfully, to reach combat zones in Syria. Some were detained on their way to Syria, others were killed and a small number were still fighting (AP.org, February 11, 2015). More than 12,000 foreign fighters from the Arab countries are fighting in Syria, most of them from Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Morocco (Sky News Arabic, February 12, 2015).
Nick Rasmussen, director of the American National Counterterrorism Center at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said that the rate of foreign fighter travel to Syria was unprecedented. He said it far exceeded the rate of foreigners who went to wage jihad in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Yemen or Somalia at any other point in the past 20 years (Foxnews.com, February 10, 2015).

Graves desecrated in Al-Raqqah province

On February 14, 2015, ISIS's propaganda department in the Al-Raqqah province posted a video of the extensive, systematic desecration of the graves of Muslim holy men and the destruction of mosques of non-Sunni Muslim denominations. An ISIS operative interviewed for the video claimed that thousands of graves had already been destroyed in the Al-Raqqah province by ISIS's "morality police (al-hisbah)." He claimed they were planning to "take care of" two other cemeteries. He quoted sayings of the prophet Muhammad about idolatry (ISIS-affiliated Twitter account, February 14, 2015).

The desecration of the graves of Muslim holy men and the blowing up of mosques carried out by ISIS (ISIS-affiliated Twitter account, February 14, 2015)

The destruction of graves and statues is a familiar tactic of ISIS and other Salafist-jihadi organizations. It is rooted in the history of Islam and based on a saying of the prophet Muhammad. During ISIS's conquests in Iraq and its gaining a foothold in Syria it desecrated graves and blew up ancient statues and otherwise destroyed cultural treasures dating from the dawn of civilization.^[5]

ISIS's educational system

On February 12, 2015 an ISIS-affiliated forum posted a video about the establishment of the Imam al-Bukhari school in the Tel Abiad region of the Al-Raqqah province. Local children, both boys and girls between the ages of six and 12, study there, as do the children of foreign fighters. A six year-old boy said that he came to Syria with his mother and father from Belgium (Shabakataljahad.net. February 12, 2015).

Pupils and teachers at the Imam al-Bukhari school in the Tel Abiad region of the Al-Raqqah province, Syria (Shabakataljahad.net. February 12, 2015)

Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula

Execution of alleged Israeli and Egyptian army agents

On February 9, 2015, an ISIS-affiliated Twitter account posted the picture of a man who had been beheaded named Yasser Ibrahim Mahmoud Awad Zayid, from the Al-Rumaylat tribe. ISIS claimed he had allegedly confessed to being "an agent of the Jews" [i.e., Israel]. Pictures were also posted of men accused of being agents for the Egyptian army, and they were beheaded by ISIS operatives in the Sinai Peninsula. There was also a picture of an Egyptian army officer named Muhammad Sa'ad, who ISIS claimed had been captured by its operatives.

Sameh Salim Suweilah, who was beheaded, according to the claim of the ISIS branch in the Sinai Peninsula, because he was an Egyptian army agent. The Arabic reads, "These are the agents of the Jews and El-Sisi's infidel army, and this is the fate of every spy whose lords are the Jews and those who reject Islam" (ISIS-affiliated Twitter account, February 9, 2015)

Global jihad organizations in other countries

Execution of Copts in Libya and Egypt's response

On February 15, 2015, the "Tripoli province" of the Islamic State in Libya executed 21 Egyptian Coptic immigrant workers who had been abducted in Libya (by the so-called "armies of the Islamic Caliphate in Tripoli"). They were beheaded by masked ISIS operatives on a beach in Libya and their deaths were documented on a video made public by Al-Hayat, an ISIS media outlet. The video was entitled "A Message Signed With Blood To The Nation Of The Cross." The speaker says "The sea you have hidden Sheikh Osama bin Laden’s body in, we swear to Allah we will mix it with your blood." The prisoners were then made to kneel on the ground and beheaded. The speaker then lifts a bloody knife and says, “We will conquer Rome, by Allah’s permission."^[6]

In response, on February 16, 2015, the Egyptian air force attacked targets in Dernah and Sirte, two ISIS strongholds in Libya. The Egyptian media reported that training camps, ISIS deployment sites and weapons stores were hit. According to reports from Libya, dozens of jihadist operatives were killed in the airstrikes.

ISIS gains a foothold in Libya

According to an article in the New York Times on February 14, 2015, in Libya there are three groups that have pledged loyalty to ISIS. One is in the city of Barqa, in the east of the country; the second is the city of Fezzan, in the south desert; and the third is Tripolitania, in the west, near the capital. "Provinces" of the Islamic State were established in those areas.
According to the article, "Western officials, especially in southern Europe, fear that the three Libyan 'provinces' could evolve into bases for Islamic State fighters traveling across the Mediterranean, into Egypt or elsewhere in North Africa. Eastern Libya has already become a training ground for jihadists going to Syria or Iraq and a haven for Egyptian fighters staging attacks in the neighboring desert."^[7]
However, the ISIS provinces in Libya show intensive military activity on the ground:

On February 13, 2015, an ISIS-affiliated Twitter account posted a picture of a shoulder-launched missile which, it was claimed, downed a Libyan army helicopter. The aircraft fell in the area between Sirte and Bin Jawad in the central coastal region (about 157 kilometers, or about 97 miles, east of Sirte).
On February 14, 2015, Arab news sites claimed that ISIS had taken over government buildings and media in the city of Sirte, and was on its way to making its takeover of the city complete (Albawaba.com, February 14, 2015; Akhbarona.com and Islammemo.cc, February 15, 2015). ISIS also claimed it had taken control of the city of Al-Naufaliyah, and was approaching the oil port of Sidra (Alquds.co.uk, February 10, 2015).

The attack on the kosher supermarket in Paris (update)

The most recent issue (number 7) of the ISIS English-language magazine Dabiq published an interview with Hayat Boumeddiene (the life partner of Amedy Coulibaly), who fled to Syria. Boumeddiene, aka Um Bashir Muhajira, called on Muslim women to love Allah and his messenger [Muhammad] and to support their fighting husbands. She also praised life in the Islamic State, where Islamic religious law was implemented (Longwarjournal.org, Insidethejihad.com).

Counterterrorism

Salafist-jihadi leader in Belgium sentenced to 12 years in prison

On February 11, 2015, a Belgian court sentenced Fouad Belkacem, the leader of the Salafist-jihadi organization Sharia4Belgium, to 12 years in prison. The trial began in September 2014 and was held in Antwerp. Forty-five other members of the organization were also tried (most of them in absentia; only eight were present in court). They were given prison sentences of between three and five years. The Belgian judge said during sentencing that there was no doubt that "Sharia4Belgium is a terrorist organization" that had brainwashed young Belgians and sent dozens of them to fight in Syria in the ranks of terrorist organizations such as ISIS.
Sharia4Belgium was established in 2010 with the objective of enforcing the sharia (Islamic religious law) in Belgium. One of its activities was sending young Belgians to fight in Syria, and to that end provided them with logistic support.^[8] Similar networks were later founded in Europe and beyond, and the "Sharia4" organizations became a kind of international network using the Internet to spread jihadi ideology. On October 7, 2012, the Belgian authorities outlawed Sharia4Belgium.
Sharia4Belgium is headed by Fouad Belkacem, a Belgian from Morocco, who became more religious a number of years ago and changed his name to Abu Imran. He preached that homosexuals of both sexes should be killed and said he prayed for Osama bin Laden. Belkacem has a long criminal record that includes convictions in 2002, 2004 and 2007. He was sentenced to prison in Morocco for dealing drugs. In June 2012 he was convicted in Belgium for incitement to hatred against non-Muslims and sentenced to two years in prison. Paroled in February 2013, he was arrested again because he had violated the terms of his parole and returned to finish his sentence. He has now been sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with other organization activists.

The battle for hearts and minds

ISIS threats of terrorist attacks in the West continue

On February 14, 2015, ISIS issued a recorded message from Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, the organization's spokesman. He threatened more terrorist attacks in France, Belgium, Canada and Australia (i.e., the countries where jihadists recently carried out terrorist attacks). He mentioned the attacks carried out and warned that the countries should continue to be on alert, and would live in fear and insecurity (YouTube, February 14, 2015).
On February 14, 2015, the same day, a video was posted to YouTube showing two French-speaking ISIS operatives with the organization's flag. They said, "We are waiting for the order to blow you up and kill you. The nightmare begins now. We will show you no mercy. We are here to enforce the rule of Allah and it is the only rule we accept in the world along with the sharia" (YouTube, February 14, 2015).

Full document in PDF format

^[1]The weekly publication Spotlight on Global Jihad monitors developments among ISIS and global jihad organizations in Syria and Iraq and in the Middle East as a whole. It also monitors terrorist activities around the world, directed, supported or inspired by the global jihad organizations in the Middle East.
^[2]Updated to February 17, 2015, based on reports in the Danish, global and Israeli media.
^[3]An ITIC bulletin issued more than a year ago noted that according to the Danish security services, about 65 Danes were fighting in Syria. It is probable that since then the number has grown. It can also be assumed that Danish veterans of the fighting in Syria and Iraq have begun returning to their native country. For further information see the February 2, 2014 bulletin "Foreign fighters from Western countries in the ranks of the rebel organizations affiliated with Al-Qaeda and the global jihad in Syria."
^[4]On September 11, 2014, a CIA spokesman said intelligence estimated the number of ISIS operatives was between 20,000 and 31,500 in Iraq and Syria. For further information see the November 26, 2014 bulletin "ISIS: Portrait of a Jihadi Terrorist Organization."
^[5]For further information see the November 26, 2014 bulletin "ISIS: Portrait of a Jihadi Terrorist Organization."
^[6]http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/02/16/egypt-s-jets-retaliate-for-slaughter-of-christians-hit-isis-in-libya.html
^[7]http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/15/world/middleeast/islamic-state-sprouting-limbs-beyond-mideast.html
^[8]In the ITIC bulletin issued a year ago, the Danish minister of the interior was quoted as saying that there were between 100 and 150 Belgians jihadists participating in the fighting against the Assad regime. Other estimates ranged between 200 and 300. Since then the number has probably risen. The numbers of Belgians is the highest in Europe relative to the country's population. It can be assumed that the activities of Fouad Belkacem made a great contribution. For further information see the February 3, 2014 bulletin "Foreign fighters from Western countries in the ranks of the rebel organizations affiliated with Al-Qaeda and the global jihad in Syria."

Spotlight on Global Jihad (February 5-11, 2015)

Published: 11/02/2015

Documentation of one of the Royal Jordanian Air Force bombings in Syria, broadcast on Jordanian TV (YouTube, February 5, 2015)

Queen Rania holding a photo of Jordanian pilot al-Kasasbeh at a demonstration in Amman (Al-Khabar Press, February 7, 2015)

Demonstration in Karak, southern Jordan (Al-Khabar Press, February 4, 2015)

Missile carried on a Jordanian plane, with the inscription: “Great flames of fire will rain down.” Above the missile (on the left), there is a photo of Jordanian pilot al-Kasasbeh (Jordanian State TV, February 6, 2015).

The inscription on one of the planes reads: “Islam is innocent of you, ISIS, February 4, 2015” [in other words, there is no connection between ISIS and Islam]. Above the missile (on the left), there is a photo of Jordanian pilot al-Kasasbeh (YouTube, February 5, 2015).

Photo of the suicide bomber against the background of the bus that he blew up in Damascus

Beheading of a “witch” in the rural eastern area of Al-Raqqah (Twitter account affiliated with ISIS, February 9, 2015)

Iraqi Army helicopter which ISIS claims was shot down on February 4 in Samarra (theshamnews.com, an independent news website affiliated with ISIS, February 5, 2015)

Buildings where ISIS claims Ms. Mueller was staying at the time of the Jordanian airstrike (Isdarat al-Dawla al-Islamiyya, February 7, 2015)

Center for Islamic law studies for girls (Twitter account affiliated with ISIS, February 4, 2015)

ISIS operative carrying a Strela (SA-7) missile on his shoulder (Twitter account affiliated with ISIS, February 6, 2015; file sharing website, February 5, 2015)

AQAP official Harith al-Nadhari killed in a targeted killing (YouTube, January 23, 2015)

Full document in PDF format

Main events of the week^[1]

Following the murder of the Jordanian pilot, the Royal Jordanian Air Force carried out intensive airstrikes against ISIS targets in both Syria and Iraq (up to now, the Jordanians have only carried out airstrikes in Syria). The Commander of the Royal Jordanian Air Force said that the airstrikes would continue. ISIS published a detailed list of Jordanian pilots and offered financial rewards to anyone who kills or wounds a Jordanian pilot.
ISIS claimed that one of the Jordanian airstrikes killed a female American aid worker who was in its hands. The White House confirmed that she was killed, but there is no reliable information about the date and circumstances of her death.
After the liberation of the city of Kobani, Kurdish forces began to repel ISIS from the surrounding countryside. ISIS forces are retreating and are trying to curb the Kurdish forces’ advance towards the city of Aleppo and the Idlib province. Apart from that, there have been no significant developments this week in the rest of the battle zones in Syria and Iraq.
Following the killing of around 30 Egyptian soldiers, and the wounding of dozens, last week the Egyptian Army carried out intensive security activity in northern Sinai against Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (the ISIS branch in Sinai). According to Egyptian sources, 151 operatives of the organization were killed, including 47 senior operatives. Egyptian combat helicopters participated in this activity. ISIS, on its part, published a photo of an operative in Sinai carrying a Strela (SA-7) anti-aircraft shoulder missile, as a demonstration of the organization’s anti-aircraft capabilities.

The international campaign against ISIS

US and coalition airstrikes

US and coalition airstrikes in Syria and Iraq continued during the week. Dozens of airstrikes were carried out during the week. The intensive airstrikes by the Royal Jordanian Air Force in retaliation for the murder of the pilot were salient, and were carried out not only in Syria (as was the case up to now), but in Iraq as well.
Following are the locations of the airstrikes:

In Syria,dozens of airstrikes in the rural area of Kobani (Ayn al-Arab) continued, although ISIS operatives have withdrawn from the city. Airstrikes were also carried out in the areas of Al-Raqqah and Deir al-Zor. The airstrikes damaged logistics facilities, ISIS military units, positions, weapons, vehicles and oil production equipment.
In Iraq, airstrikes were carried out in the areas of Mosul, Kirkuk, Baiji, Tal Afar, Al-Assad, Fallujah and Al-Qaim. The airstrikes damaged ISIS military units, checkpoints, weapons, buildings, vehicles and boats which were used by ISIS.

Royal Jordanian Air Force airstrikes

On February 8, 2015, Royal Jordanian Air Force Commander Major General Mansour al-Jabour presented the intensive airstrikes carried out by the Royal Jordanian Air Force. The airstrikes, which were coordinated with the international coalition, began in the days following the killing of Jordanian pilot Muadh al-Kasasbeh. On February 5, the Royal Jordanian Air Force attacked 19 ISIS training centers; On February 6, the Royal Jordanian Air Force carried out 19 sorties, attacking ammunition depots, logistics centers, fuel depots and military equipment; On February 7, the Royal Jordanian Air Force carried out 19 sorties, attacking ISIS operatives and camps. Al-Jabour noted that the Royal Jordanian Air Force airstrikes helped hit the ISIS fuel production network (Jordanian News Agency, February 8, 2015).

The Royal Jordanian Air Force Commander said that the Royal Jordanian Air Force did not attack civilian buildings at any stage. He added thatthe primary goals of the air strikes are: hitting the top leadership of ISIS; hitting the organization’s “exports” (this presumably means mainly its exports of petroleum products); destroying ISIS’s training camps; hitting its command and control capabilities and hitting the organization’s operatives. According to the Royal Jordanian Air Force Commander, in the days ahead the Royal Jordanian Air Force is expected to carry out many sorties and attack ISIS targets (Jordanian News Agency, February 8, 2015).

Reactions in Jordan to the execution of the Jordanian pilot

On February 3, 2015, ISIS published a video showing the Jordanian pilot Muadh al-Kasasbeh being executed by fire inside a cage. Jordan’s King Abdullah II cut short his visit to the United States and returned to Jordan. After his return, he visited the General Headquarters of the Armed Forces, met with the Chief of Staff and announced that Jordan’s response to the “criminal and cowardly” act would be severe (Jordanian News Agency, February 4, 2015). A strong protest arose in Jordanian society and politics. After the photos of al-Kasasbeh being burned to death were published, demonstrations and protests broke out in Amman (attended by Queen Rania), Karak, Zarqa, Ramtha and other cities in Jordan. The demonstrators demanded that the government take revenge, shouting “Death to ISIS”.

Following is a summary of the Jordanian responses to the execution up to now (as of February 10, 2015):

Increasing the Jordanian bombings against ISIS following the murder of the pilot al-Kasasbeh: Jordanian “military sources” told an Al-Hayat correspondent that Jordan now has “a private vendetta” against ISIS (Al-Hayat, February 5, 2015). In practice, Jordan increased its airstrikes against ISIS, in both Syria and northern Iraq (the Mosul area), as detailed above.^[2] The media reported that the airstrike in Mosul killed over 35 ISIS operatives (Sky News in Arabic, February 6, 2015). This was the first time the Royal Jordanian Air Force attacked targets in Iraq since Jordan joined the coalition (up to now, there has been a kind of “division of labor” among the partners of the US: Arab air forces joined the US in its airstrikes in Syria, and Western air forces assisted it in Iraq). Jordanian TV (February 6) broadcast photos documenting Royal Jordanian Air Force planes taking off to carry out airstrikes and returning at the end of the airstrikes.

The release from prison of a senior jihadi operative who is hostile to ISIS: on February 5, 2015, Jordan released the kingdom’s most senior Salafist-jihadi, Issam al-Barqawi (Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi), who is opposed to ISIS. The Prosecutor General of the State Security Court dismissed the charges against al-Maqdisi and ordered his immediate release on probation. Upon his release from prison, al-Maqdisi said that he had tried to intervene for the release of Muadh al-Kasasbeh. He said that he had negotiated with ISIS and other jihadi organizations in the Middle East but to no avail, because ISIS deceived him. He condemned the execution of al-Kasasbeh by fire, adding that ISIS is harming the image of the Salafist-jihadi movement and creating an internal rift between Muslims (Al-Rai Media Channel, February 6, 2015).

Issam al-Barqawi (Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi) is a senior Salafist-jihadi operative who supports the Al-Nusra Front (Al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria) and vehemently opposes ISIS. In June 2014, he was released from a Jordanian prison after serving four years in prison for his involvement in terrorism. From the perspective of the Jordanian regime, his release was intended to strengthen the opponents of ISIS among the Salafist-jihadi movement as part of a policy of divide and conquer. He was arrested again in late October 2014 and was released again after the murder of the Jordanian pilot.

Main developments in Syria

The city of Kobani

After the liberation of the city of Kobani, Kurdish forces began to repel ISIS from the surrounding countryside. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on February 9 that over the past two weeks, the Kurdish forces (YPG) took over 128 of the 350 villages in rural Kobani, out of 350 villages in the Kobani countryside; most of the villages were liberated without resistance. Battles are still ongoing west of Kobani, with ISIS forces attempting to curb the Kurdish forces’ advance towards the city of Aleppo and the Idlib province.

Damascus

On February 8, 2015, a Twitter account affiliated with the Al-Nusra Front posted a video with photos of one of its suicide bombers, by the name of Abu al-Izz al-Ansari, who carried out a suicide bombing attack in the heart of Damascus on a bus carrying Hezbollah operatives from Lebanon. It was claimed that the attack killed several Hezbollah operatives and that it was carried out in retaliation for the murder of Syrians by the Syrian Army and the rape of women by Hezbollah operatives (Twitter account affiliated with the Al-Nusra Front; YouTube, February 8, 2015).

Aleppo province

On February 8, 2015, there were violent clashes between ISIS and the Syrian Army and other rebel groups. These clashes took place in Aleppo (the Bab al-Nasr area), in the suburbs of Aleppo and in the Aleppo countryside (the villages of Dabiq and Souran).

Al-Raqqah province

ISIS continues to pursue its opponents in the Al-Raqqah province. Last week, ISIS beheaded three people on charges of collaborating with the Syrian regime. Another person was beheaded in the rural eastern area the Al-Raqqah for “practicing witchcraft” (SOHR, February 8, 2015).^[3]

Beheading of a “witch” in the rural eastern area of Al-Raqqah (Twitter account affiliated with ISIS, February 9, 2015)

Deir al-Zor province

On February 10, 2015, fighting resumed around the military airfield of Deir al-Zor. The Syrian Air Force bombed ISIS targets around the airfield. ISIS in turn shelled the airport with mortars and rockets (SOHR, February 10, 2015).

Main developments in Iraq

Prime Minister of Iraq: the Iraqi Army is preparing to recapture Mosul

Speaking at a press conference in Germany, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi saidthat the Iraqi Army was preparing to recapture the city of Mosul from ISIS, with the help of the Peshmerga and the international coalition.He noted that the goal is to liberate Mosul with minimum casualties among military personnel and civilians. He added that he expected Germany to train the Iraqi security forces, and especially the police, to control the various cities after Mosul is liberated (Al-Arabiya TV, February 6, 2015). The US administration is currently examining the question of whether Iraq is ready to carry such a counterattack (Al-Jazeera’s English-language website, February 9, 2015).

In the ITIC’s assessment, al-Abadi’s statement is overly optimistic, since it is doubtful whether the Iraqi Army is fit to carry out an extensive counterattack to recapture a big city like Mosul (even if the Iraqi Army receives support from the United States and the coalition). This is because the Iraqi Army still faces fundamental problems at both the military level (training, equipment, morale) and the domestic political level (a lack of national Sunni-Shiite cohesiveness in Iraq).

Baghdad

On February 7, 2015, a Twitter account affiliated with ISIS posted a report about a suicide bomber codenamed Abu Hajer al-Ansari who blew himself up with an explosive belt inside a group of operatives of one of the Shiite militias in Baghdad. Dozens of people were killed and injured as a result (Twitter account affiliated with ISIS, February 7, 2015).

Al-Anbar province

On February 7, 2015, a Twitter account affiliated with ISIS reported on fierce battles taking place in Ramadi between ISIS and the Iraqi Army and the militias that assist it. This is part of ISIS’s efforts to “cleanse” the remaining pockets of resistance in the Sunni province of Al-Anbar.

Salah al-Din province

On February 5, 2015, a website affiliated with ISIS posted a photo of an Iraqi Army helicopter allegedly shot down on February 4 in the city of Samarra (independent website affiliated with ISIS, February 5, 2015).

The conduct of the Islamic State

The death of an American hostage

A statement attributed to the Islamic State claimed that Kayla Jean Mueller, an American woman abducted by ISIS, was killed in the Jordanian bombing on February 6, 2015. The statement included photos of buildings where Mueller was allegedly staying at the time of the Jordanian airstrike.A Jordanian spokesman claimed that the statement is part of ISIS’s “criminal propaganda”. The US government initially announced that it had no proof that Mueller was killed, but later the White House confirmed that she was not alive. However, it is not clear when Ms. Mueller was killed and under what circumstances.

Kayla Mueller was a 26-year-old American woman who worked for a humanitarian organization in Syria. According to media reports, she came to Syria via Turkey to help the Syrian refugees. She was abducted from a hospital in Aleppo in August 2013, while caring for the wounded. ISIS reportedly demanded USD 6.6 million in return for her release, but did not get it. It was reported that she was the last American woman held by ISIS. The White House announced that there was at least one more US citizen being held hostage in the Middle East (Haaretz daily and AP, February 11, 2015).

Brutal application of Sharia law by ISIS

On February 7, 2015, a Twitter account affiliated with ISIS posted a video on YouTube showing the execution of three people accused of abducting a Muslim and stealing his money. The three were crucified after being killed (Twitter account affiliated with ISIS, February 7, 2015)

The confessions and executions of the three people accused of “crimes” (Twitter account affiliated with ISIS, February 7, 2015)

On February 7, 2015, a Twitter account affiliated with ISIS posted a video showing the morality police (Al-Hesbah) stopping a truck carrying alcohol. They claimed that the shipment was intended for areas controlled by the Kurdish forces. The morality police smashed the bottles of alcohol and set them on fire (Twitter account of a news agency affiliated with ISIS, February 7, 2015).

Seizure of the truck carrying alcohol and the destruction of its contents (Twitter account affiliated with ISIS, February 7, 2015)

Islamic education for girls in Al-Raqqah

On February 4, 2015, a Twitter account affiliated with ISIS announced the opening of a center for Islamic law studies for girls, under the auspices of the ISIS education office in the Al-Raqqah province. The institution is apparently attended by girls who have graduated from high school (Twitter account affiliated with ISIS, February 4, 2015).

ISIS’s interest in light helicopters

On February 2, 2015, a Twitter account affiliated with ISIS published an urgent call to engineers working in industries in Iraq, Syria and Egypt, to send plans for the Islamic State (this is an implicit reference to building or assembling light helicopters, since a photo of a light helicopter appeared alongside the call) (Twitter account affiliated with ISIS, February 2, 2015).

Photo of a light helicopter, included in the posting (Twitter account affiliated with ISIS, February 2, 2015)

Palestinians and Israeli Arabs

Senior Hamas official’s car blown up following his sermon against ISIS

On February 6, 2015, unknown perpetrators blew up the car of a senior Hamas official in the central Gaza Strip, Sheikh Sami al-Hams, who lives in the Nuseirat refugee camp. The explosion completely destroyed the car (Filastin al-Aan, February 6, 2015). According to eyewitnesses, Sheikh Sami al-Hams, a preacher in Nuseirat, attacked ISIS in a Friday sermon in a local mosque (Sawt Fatah, February 6, 2015).

Jihadist from Rafah killed in the ranks of ISIS in Libya

Abd al-Ilah Qishta, a 25-year-old from Rafah, was killed on February 6, 2015, in the city of Derna, eastern Libya, during battles between the Libyan Army and jihadi organizations. Qishta left his family in Rafah a few months ago and joined the ranks of ISIS in Libya (Rai al-Youm, February 7, 2015).
According to a relative of the deceased, Abd al-Ilah Qishta was a prominent Hamas military operative in Rafah until he decided to leave the Gaza Strip and fight in Libya (Rusaifa News, Libya, February 7, 2015). Following his death, the Qishta family in Rafah posted an official death notice on its website (the Qishta family’s website, February 7, 2015).

Abd al-Ilah Qishta from the Gaza Strip, killed in battles between jihadists and the Libyan Army (the Qishta family’s website, February 7, 2015)

A local jihadi organization by the name of Majles Shura Shabab al-Islam operates in the city of Derna in eastern Libya. In November 2014, the organization announced that it was joining the Caliphate which was established by ISIS, and its men pledged allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The death of Abd al-Ilah Qishta may indicate that jihadi operatives from the Gaza Strip are fighting in the ranks of organizations affiliated with ISIS in Libya (although most of the jihadi operatives in the Gaza Strip make their way to Syria).

Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula

Intensive activity by the Egyptian Army against the jihadists in Sinai

Last week, the Egyptian Army carried out intensive security activity in northern Sinai against Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (the ISIS branch in Sinai) and additional jihadi elements. The activity focused on the areas of Sheikh Zuweid, Al-Arish and the Egyptian Rafah and included the use of Apache helicopters. “Informed sources in northern Sinai” reported that as part of the military operations against the jihadists in early February 2015, 151 operatives were killed, including 47 senior operatives (Al-Youm al-Sabea, February 7, 2015).

On February 6, 2015, a Twitter account affiliated with ISIS shared a photo from the information office of the ISIS Sinai province published the day before. The photo shows an ISIS operative carrying a Strela (SA-7) anti-aircraft shoulder missile on his shoulder (Twitter account affiliated with ISIS, February 6, 2015; file sharing website, February 5, 2015). In the ITIC’s assessment, the presence of shoulder-fired missiles in Sinai in the hands of jihadi operatives is liable to endanger Egyptian Army aircraft as well as Israeli aircraft.

Interview with an Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis commander

According to Reuters (February 5, 2015), in mid-January 2015 a Reuters correspondent interviewed one of the commanders of Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (the ISIS branch in Sinai). The interview took place in a remote location in Sinai. The commander who was interviewed (with a heavy Bedouin accent) admitted that his organization was inspired by the Islamic State and noted that his organization was working to establish an Islamic state in Egypt.
The commander admitted that his organization was currently suffering from more difficulties than in the past: “Our numbers are smaller than before,” he said. “Lots of people were killed. Lots of people were detained. [The Egyptian] security forces are everywhere.” He noted that since last year, about 1,000 operatives were killed and about 500-600 operatives were detained by the Egyptian security forces. According to the commander, the destruction of tunnels from the Gaza Strip to northern Sinai has deprived the jihadi operatives of vital arms supply routes: “There are far fewer weapons [today] because tunnels have been destroyed. It is difficult to move weapons [from the Gaza Strip to Sinai].”

Global jihad organizations in other countries

Senior official of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) killed in a targeted killing

Harith al-Nadhari, one of AQAP’s most prominent authorities on Islamic religious law, was killed in a targeted killing carried out by means of a US drone. Three of his escorts were killed along with him. The targeted killing took place in the Shabwa province, in southern Yemen, on January 31, 2015. AQAP confirmed the report (Al-Arabiya TV, February 5, 2015; Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, February 5, 2015). In a recent video, Harith al-Nadhari listed the necessary conditions for carrying out suicide bombing attacks. In an audiotape released on January 9, 2015, al-Nadhari claimed responsibility on behalf of AQAP for the attack in Paris on the newspaper Charlie Hebdo (YouTube, January 9, 2015).

Libya: Call on jihadi organizations in North Africa to join ISIS

ISIS’s “Tripoli province” in Libya, which claimed responsibility for the attack at the Corinthia Hotel, recently posted a video on a jihadi website. The video was issued by the “information office of the Tripoli province”. The codename of the speaker in the video was Abu Suleiman al-Tareqi. In the video, he addresses (in Tuareg, one of the Berber languages) the “brothers” in Libya, Mali and Algeria,calling on them to pledge allegiance to the Islamic State and to practice jihad.Another speaker, codenamed Abu Umar al-Tareqi, addressed the “brothers” from the Tuareg tribes and called on them to pledge allegiance and emigrate to the Islamic State. These calls may indicate ISIS’s intention to expand the areas of its influence in North Africa beyond Libya, where it has gained a foothold.

Stabbing attack in France

On February 3, 2015, three French soldiers were attacked with a knife in Nice, in the south of France, while guarding the Jewish community center. The three soldiers were slightly injured. The attacker was caught and arrested.
The attacker is Moussa Coulibaly,^[3] around 30, from a family of immigrants from Mali. He has a criminal record (property and violent crimes). About a week before the stabbing attack in Nice, Moussa Coulibaly was deported from Turkey to France. He was detained and questioned by the French intelligence services on suspicion of planning to join the jihadi terrorist organizations in Syria. After being questioned, he was released and he then carried out the stabbing attack in Nice.

The battle for hearts and minds

ISIS offers a reward to anyone who murders Jordanian pilots

On February 4, 2015, an Islamic forum published a manifesto on behalf of the Islamic State’s general security bureau. The manifesto included a detailed list of Jordanian pilots, including the rank, place of residence and position of some of them. The general security bureau of the Islamic State of ISIS said that the Shura Council of the Islamic State had approved a financial reward of 100 gold dinars to anyone who kills or injures a Jordanian pilot, so that he is unable to fly or work within the coalition against ISIS. The source of this list, according to the Islamic State’s general security bureau, is a result of the interrogation of the Jordanian pilot Muadh al-Kasasbeh (Shabakat al-Jihad al-Alami Forum, affiliated with the global jihad, February 4, 2015).

Propaganda video with abducted British journalist John Cantlie

On February 9, 2015, forums affiliated with ISIS posted a new video with abducted British journalist John Cantlie, who has been utilized by ISIS in the past for propaganda purposes. The video covers the situation in Aleppo and its surroundings, but most of the photos appear to be from the city of Al-Bab, east of Aleppo, and not from the city of Aleppo itself (probably in order to create the false impression that ISIS has complete control of the city and its environs).
John Cantlie described the extensive destruction created in and around the city by the aircraft of the Syrian regime with, so he says, the assistance of American drones. He noted that a large part of the city, with its ancient architectural heritage, had been destroyed and that many of its residents had fled. On the other hand, Cantlie praised the services that the Islamic State provides to the residents for maintaining their daily routine. In the video, Cantlie is shown with groups of children who attend religious studies and is shown telling the camera: “These kids will form the Mujahideen of the next generation.” (shabakataljahad.net, February 9, 2015).

John Cantlie against the background of a ruined building allegedly located in Aleppo, which might actually be in the city of Al-Bab, east of Aleppo (shabakataljahad.net)

Left: French-speaking ISIS operative being interviewed by Cantlie. The operative called on Muslims in France to take action against those who harm their religion and praised Mohamed Merah, who carried out the shooting attack in Toulouse, which killed four Jews (shabakataljahad.net, March 19, 2012) Right: Children studying the Quran, the next generation of jihad fighters (shabakataljahad.net)

Computer game to encourage fighting in the Iraqi Army and the Peshmerga

On February 1, 2015, a forum affiliated with ISIS posted a report about an online computer game where players can choose ISIS forces and fight in the Iraqi Army and the Kurdish peshmerga forces. The ISIS forces include high-quality graphics and look very realistic. The game, called ARMA (Armed Assault), is a tactical computer game for up to 40 players in each group. The game was released in 2006 by Czech computer game developer Bohemia Interactive (forum affiliated with ISIS, February 1, 2015).

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^[1]The weekly publication Spotlight on Global Jihad monitors developments among ISIS and global jihad organizations in Syria and Iraq and in the Middle East as a whole. The publication also monitors terrorist activities around the world, directed, supported or inspired by the global jihad organizations in the Middle East.
^[2] A “senior Jordanian source” reported that Jordan is considering a limited ground operation against ISIS in Syrian territory (Al-Arab al-Yawm, February 5, 2015). On the other hand, Jordanian “military experts” noted that carrying out ground operations against ISIS is not expected at this time, although Jordan possesses the ability to do so (Jordan Times, February 5, 2015).
^[3]The human rights organization SOHR has reported that at least 75 people were executed in Syria during the first month of 2015. Out of the 75 instances, at least four executions of women and seven executions of foreigner civilians (Arabs, Asians and Russians) were documented. At least 50 out of the 75 executions were carried out by ISIS (SOHR, February 4, 2015).
^[4]Amedy Coulibaly is the name of the terrorist who carried out the attack at the Jewish supermarket in Paris. The two are not necessarily related, since Coulibaly is a common name among families of emigrants from Mali.

News of Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (February 4 – 10, 2015)

Published: 10/02/2015

Jihad Ramadan, Fatah secretary general in Nablus, throws stones at IDF forces during the weekly riot in Kafr Qadoum (Facebook page of Fatah, February 6, 2015).

A Palestinian slings tones at IDF forces in Kafr Qadoum during the weekly riot protesting the settlements (Wafa.ps, February 6, 2015).

The "Jerusalem Gate" illegal Palestinian outpost in area E1 (Wafa.ps, February 3, 2015).

Senior Hamas figure Salah al-Bardawil delivers a speech at the rally (Facebook page of PALINFO, February 6, 2015)

Friday prayer and rally participants in front of the Egyptian embassy in Gaza City.

The press conference held by the military wings of the Palestinians terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip, where they condemned the Egyptian court ruling (Paltoday.ps, February 5, 2015).

The march and rally in front of the house of Muhammad Deif in Khan Yunis (Facebook page of PALDF, February 3, 2015)

DFLP terrorist operatives simulate storming an IDF post to abduct an Israeli soldier (Facebook page National Resistance Battalions information bureau, February 8, 2015)

Mahmoud al-Alul announces the PA ban on products of six Israeli firms (Quds.net, February 9, 2015)

The vehicle of senior Hamas figure Sheikh Sami Hamas after the explosion in the Nuseirat refugee camp (Paltimes.net, February 6, 2015).

Abd al-Illah Qishta from the Gaza Strip, killed in battle in Libya (Qishta family website, February 7, 2015)

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Overview

Israel's south remains quiet. In Judea, Samaria and east Jerusalem violence and terrorism continue in the so-called "popular resistance." In the "popular resistance" riot held in Kafr Qadoum, the secretary general of Fatah in Nablus threw stones at IDF soldiers.
This past week terrorist operatives of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP) held training exercises which included simulations of taking over an IDF post and abducting an IDF soldier. The other terrorist organizations also regularly practice such exercises as part of their post-Operation Protective Edge training.
Prof. William Schabas announced his resignation as chairman of the UN Human Rights Council commission of inquiry. It came in the wake of Israeli accusations that he was biased because he had worked as a consultant for the PLO. He was replaced by the American Mary McGowan Davis.
This past week Mahmoud Abbas issued an edict establishing a high national committee to monitor PA appeals to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, chaired by Saeb Erekat. One of its four subcommittees will be responsible for preparing a "settlements file" and an "aggression in the Gaza Strip file" (i.e., "the Operation Protective Edge file").

Israel's South

Rocket Fire Attacking Israel

This past week no rocket or mortar shell hits were identified in Israeli territory.

Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria

Additional "Popular Resistance" Violence and Terrorism

This past week the wave of violence and terrorism continued at the traditional friction sites in Judea and Samaria and the neighborhoods of east Jerusalem (Kafr Qadoum, near the Ofer jail, Bil'in, the Qalandia roadblock, etc.), part of the so-called "popular resistance." The violence included the throwing of rocks, stones and Molotov cocktails at Israeli houses and vehicles. The major events were the following:

On February 8, 2015, masked Palestinians threw Molotov cocktails at houses of Jews in the Ras al-Amoud neighborhood of east Jerusalem. There were no casualties; a balcony was damaged (IBA.org.il, February 8, 2015). A Molotov cocktail was also thrown at the precinct of the Tomb of Simeon the Just in Jerusalem. There were no casualties and no damage was reported (Israel Police Force, February 8, 2015). A Molotov cocktail was thrown atan Israeli bus on the road between Kfar Tapuah and Migdalim in Samaria. There were no casualties and no damage was reported (Facebook pate of Mivzak, February 8, 2015).
On February 5, 2015, an IDF force shot at a Palestinian who threw a Molotov cocktail near the village of Psagot (east of Ramallah). The Palestinian was wounded and taken to the hospital in Ramallah (Newsil.net, February 5, 2015).
On February 4, 2015, a Molotov cocktail was thrown at the house of a Jewish Israeli family in the Abu Tor neighborhood of east Jerusalem. One man suffered minor injuries. The balcony of the house was slightly damaged (Ynetnews.co.il, February 4, 2015).

Fatah Secretary General in Nablus Throws Stones during the Weekly Riot in Kafr Qadoum

The official Fatah Facebook page posted a picture [See front page] of Jihad Ramadan, Fatah's secretary general in Nablus, throwing stones at IDF forces during the weekly riot in Kafr Qadoum (Facebook page of Fatah, February 6, 2015). Fatah activists have participated in previous riots and other violent confrontations with the IDF, part of the so-called "popular resistance."

Illegal Palestinian Outpost Erected in Area E1

On February 3, 2015, a number of activists from the Palestinian Popular Committees against the Fence and Settlements erected an illegal outpost they called "Jerusalem Gate" in the region of Abu Dis east of Jerusalem. They put up three tents and hung a Palestinian flag. According to the activists, the outpost was erected to keep Israel from evacuating Bedouins who live in the area so that Israel could take control of area E1.
On February 4, 2015, the IDF evacuated the outpost and destroyed the tents. The activists erected the outpost again. On February 5, 2015 an IDF force destroyed the outpost again. It was erected and destroyed a third and fourth time on February 6, 2015. The fourth time, the activists erected a permanent structure in addition to the tents. Before dawn on February 8, 2015 IDF forces destroyed the outpost again. During the day the Palestinians returned and rebuilt the outpost for the fifth time (Paltimes.net, Qaweim.com February 4, 2015; Wafa.ps, February 3 and 6, 2015; Maannews.net, February 9, 2015). As of today, February 10, 2015, the outpost is still in place.

The "Jerusalem Gate" illegal Palestinian outpost in area E1 (Wafa.ps, February 3, 2015).

Developments in the Gaza Strip

Protests Continue against the Egyptian Court Ruling to Ban Hamas' Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades and List It as a Terrorist Organization

This past week Gazans continued protesting the Egyptian court ruling to ban the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas' military-terrorist wing, and list it as a terrorist organization. It is likely that the protests were organized by Hamas; they included gatherings and mass marches led by Hamas. The main events were the following:

On February 6, 2015, Hamas held the Friday prayer and a rally in front of the Egyptian embassy in Gaza City. It was attended by dozens of Gazans, among them senior Hamas figures. The participants held signs stating that Hamas was not a terrorist organization but rather a "resistance organization." The Egyptian embassy was secured by Hamas security forces (Facebook page of PALINFO, February 6, 2015).

On February 5, 2015, the military wings of the terrorist organizations operating in the Gaza Strip held a press conference where they condemned the Egyptian court's decision to ban the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades and designate it as a terrorist organization (Paltoday.tv, February 5, 2015).

The press conference held by the military wings of the Palestinians terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip, where they condemned the Egyptian court ruling (Paltoday.ps, February 5, 2015).

On February 3, 2015, Hamas held a rally and march in front of the house of Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades commander of Muhammad Deif in Khan Yunis. Senior Hamas figure Salah al-Bardawil gave a speech in which he claimed that Hamas did not intend to appeal the ruling because Hamas did not recognize it. He claimed that the attempt to involve Hamas and its military wing in Egyptian's internal conflicts would not succeed (Alresala.net, Facebook page of PALDF, (Facebook page of PALINFO, February 3, 2015).

Demonstration to Protest the Closing of the Rafah Crossing

On February 4, 2015, a number of male and female students held a demonstration at the Rafah crossing to protest its continued closing by Egypt, which kept humanitarian cases from leaving the Gaza Strip for Egypt (Facebook page of the Jerusalem News Network, February 4, 2015).

The demonstration at the Rafah crossing. At the bottom right are two coffins. The left has the logo of the Arab League and the Arabic reads, "Coffin of the Arab League." The right has the logo of the EU and the Arabic reads, "The silence of the international community" (Facebook page of QUDSN, February 4, 2015)

Continued Training Exercises Simulate the Takeover of IDF Posts and the Abduction of Israeli Soldiers

On February 8, 2015, the National Resistance Battalions (the DFLP's military-terrorist wing) held a training exercise for its operatives. It was held in one of the organization's training facilities in the Rafah region. Among other things the operatives simulated talking over an IDF post and abducting IDF soldiers (Facebook page National Resistance Battalions information bureau, February 8, 2015). The terrorist organizations operating in the Gaza Strip have held such exercises since the end of Operation Protective Edge.^[3]

The Palestinian Authority

Committee Appointed to Monitor PA Appeals to the ICC

OnFebruary 7, 2015, Mahmoud Abbas issued a presidential edict in Ramallah ordering the appointment of a high national committee to monitor the PA's appeals to the ICC. According to the edict, Saeb Erekat will head the committee and it will have 40 members, among them politicians, academicians, representatives of the PA's ministries of foreign affairs and justice, heads of the Palestinian security forces, and representatives from Palestinian human rights organizations and trade unions. The committee will prepare and present case files to the ICC through the Palestinian foreign ministry. According to the edict, the committee will be allotted an ad hoc budget and will report its activities to Mahmoud Abbas (Wafa.ps and the Facebook page of Fatah, February 7 and 8, 2015).
Saeb Erekat, who heads the committee, told Voice of Palestine Radio that the committee would have representatives from all the Palestinian organizations, including Hamas. He said the committee had met on February 7, 2015 and appointed four subcommittees: the first would be responsible for preparing a "settlements file" and an "aggression in the Gaza Strip file" (i.e., "the Operation Protective Edge file"). The second subcommittee would be responsible for contacts with international organizations and regional organizations of the civilian society. The third subcommittee would deal with formulating the high committees' internal rules and regulations, and the fourth would formulate a media program to accompany the committee's activities (Voice of Palestine Radio, February 8, 2015).

The title page of the presidential edict issued by Mahmoud Abbas appointing a high national committee to monitor the PA's appeals to the ICC (Wafa.ps, February 7, 2015).

Ban on Entrance of Israeli Products into the PA

Mahmoud al-Alul, a senior Fatah figure and chairman of the high national committee for the struggle against steps taken by Israel, held a press conference at the headquarters of the Palestinian journalists' union in Al-Bireh on February 9, 2015. He announced that the committee had decided to forbid the entrance into the PA of products made by six Israeli companies: Tnuva (dairy products), Strauss (dairy products), Elite (chocolate), Osem (pasta), Prigat (frozen concentrates) and Jafora-Tabori (soft drinks). He said the committee would give Palestinian vendors two weeks to remove the products from their shelves. Wassel Abu Yousuf, a member of the committee, claimed the boycott was a response to Israel's freezing of PA tax revenues (Quds.net, February 9, 2015).

Violent Confrontations between Palestinian Security Forces and Fatah Terrorist Operatives in Nablus

During the night of February 4, 2015 there were heavy exchanges of fire between Palestinian security forces and Fatah terrorist operatives in the Old City of Nablus in the area of the Balata refugee camp, adjacent to Nablus. Armed operatives blocked the main entrances to the refugee camp to keep the security forces from entering.
During the past week the PA security forces carried out extensive detentions of armed operatives in the Balata refugee camp and the Old City of Nablus. That led to confrontations between armed operatives and the security forces that included firing shots into the air, detonating fire crackers, burning tires and throwing stones (Quds.net, February 2 and 5, 2015; Facebook page of Qudsnet News Agency, February 5, 2015). According to one version the confrontations were the result of internal power struggles between the PA and Fatah supporters of Muhammad Dahlan.

Left: Armed operatives block the roads leading into the Balata refugee camp (Facebook page of Qudsnet News Agency, February 5, 2015). Right: Armed Fatah terrorist operatives in the Balata refugee camp (Quds.net, February 5, 2015).

The Global Jihad

Vehicle of Senior Hamas figure Blown Up after Anti-ISIS Sermon

On February 6, 2015, unknown persons blew up the vehicle of Sheikh Sami al-Hams, a senior Hamas figure who lives in the Nuseirat refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip. The vehicle was completely destroyed (Paltimes.net, February 6, 2015). Eyewitnesses said that Sheikh Sami al-Hams attacked ISIS in his Friday sermon in a Nuseirat mosque (Sawt Fatah, February 6, 2015).

Jihadist from Rafah Killed Fighting in the Ranks of ISIS in Libya

Abd al-Illah Qishta, 25, from Rafah, was killed on February 6, 2015, in the city of Dernah in Libya in a battle between jihadi organizations and the Libyan army. He left his family in Rafah several months ago and joined the ranks of ISIS in Libya (Raialyoum.com, February 7, 2015).

According to a family relative, Abd al-Illah Qishta had been a prominent Hamas military operative in Rafah until he decided to leave the Gaza Strip and fight in Libya (Al-Rusaifa, Libya, February 7, 2015). After his death his family in Rafah posted an official notice on its website (Qishta family website, February 7, 2015).
In Dernah, a city in central Libya, there is a local jihadi organization called Majlis Shura Shabab al-Islam. In November 2014 the organization announced it was joining the ISIS self-declared Caliphate, and its operatives swore allegiance to the Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The death of Abd al-Illah Qishta indicates that jihadist operatives from the Gaza Strip are probably fighting in the ranks of organizations affiliated with ISIS in Libya (although most of the jihadist operatives in the Gaza Strip go to Syria).

Media Events

Resignation of the Chairman of the UN's Human Rights Council Inquiry Commission into Operation Protective Edge

On February 3, 2015, Prof. William Schabas announced he was resigning as head of the UN Human Rights Council's (UNHRC) commission of inquiry into the events of Operation Protective Edge in the Gaza Strip. The reason given was Israel's accusations that he was biased because he had worked as a consultant for the PLO. His resignation was confirmed by the president of the UN's HRC, who replaced him with the American Mary McGowan Davis. According to a spokesman for the UN Secretary General, the commission will continue its work and it is expected transmit its findings to the UNHRC on March 23, 2015 (UN website, February 3, 2015).
In response State Department Spokesman Jen Psaki said that from the beginning the State Department had opposed the establishment of a commission of inquiry into Operation Protective Edge and that it still strongly opposed it (State Department website, February 4, 2015).
Fawzi Barhoum, Hamas spokesman in the Gaza Strip, accused Israel of exerting pressure and of extortion to obscure the facts and escape punishment (Palestine-info.info, February 3, 2015).

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^[1]As of February 10, 2015. The statistics do not include mortar shell fire or rockets which misfired and fell inside the Gaza Strip.
^[2]The statistics do not include mortar shell fire.
^[3]For further information see the February 2, 2015 bulletin "Hamas and the other terrorist organizations based in Gaza are rehabilitating the military capabilities damaged in Operation Protective Edge through extensive recruitment, the establishment of military units and intensive military training."

After about four months of fighting ISIS was defeated in the Kurdish city of Kobanî (Ayn al-Arab) in northern Syria. It was the worst blow dealt to ISIS since the beginning of the American and coalition campaign against it.

Published: 08/02/2015

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The ruins of the city of Kobanî (Ayn al-Arab) after about four months of fighting (Ayn al-Arab Twitter account, February 2, 2015).

Overview

1. On January 30, 2015, ISIS issued a video in which it admitted, for the first time, that its fighters had retreated from Kobanî (Ayn al-Arab) in northern Syria, and that control of the city had been retaken by the Kurdish forces. Two operatives who fought in Kobanî admitted that ISIS forces had retreated from the city. They claimed (for propaganda reasons) it was not a defeat in the campaign but rather a retreat carried out because of the coalition force airstrikes (Aamaq News Agency, January 31, 2015). According to media reports ISIS began retreating from dozens of villages in the rural area surrounding Kobanî it had taken control of in the summer of 2014. The coalition airstrikes on ISIS targets in the region continue.

2. The ISIS campaign on Kobanî's surroundings began in the middle of September 2014. In order to take over the city ISIS concentrated a force of several thousand operatives with tank and artillery support. During the first stage ISIS took control of the rural region around the city. During the second stage (which began on October 7, 2014) ISIS forces succeeded in entering the city itself and took control of the eastern and southern suburbs. In the three following months fierce fighting developed in Kobanî, during which ISIS met with determined resistance from the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which had aerial and logistic support from the United States and the international coalition.

ISIS operative, one of two who appeared in the video and admitted ISIS had retreated from Kobanî (Aamaq News Agency, January 31, 2015)

3. It was ISIS's worst defeat since the American-led international coalition forces began the campaign declared by President Obama on September 10, 2014. The main cause of the defeat was ISIS's difficulty in sustaining extended fighting in an urban setting against trained, highly-motivated Kurdish forces who were intimately familiar with the terrain and determined to defend it. The intensive American and coalition airstrikes also contributed greatly, but ISIS's claim that the aerial attacks were the cause of its defeat in Kobanî is incorrect and intended to minimize the significance of the Kurdish forces and provide an excuse for the defeat. However, ISIS's well-oiled propaganda machine has kept a low profile regarding Kobanî while it diverts attention to recent events elsewhere (the executions of the Japanese hostages and the immolation of the Jordanian pilot).

4. The months of fighting turned Kobanî into a symbol, thus ISIS's failure, after it had fostered an image of invincibility, is a severe blow to its prestige. Moreover, ISIS's failure at Kobanî may have the following implications:

1) ISIS failed its attempt to enforce its control over a wide swath of hundreds of kilometers along the Syrian-Turkish border, where three international border crossings are located (See map): Tel Abiad (under ISIS control), Jarabulus (under ISIS control) and Kobanî (controlled by both, currently under the control of the Kurdish forces). The victory can make it easier for the Syrian Kurdish forces (YPG) to preserve their connection with the Kurds in Turkey (PKK) and also possibly with the Peshmerga forces in Iraq (although the Turkish authorities can be expected to make such connections difficult to maintain).

The border crossings between Turkey and Syria, from east to west: Qamishli, Ras al-Ayn, Tel Abiad, Ayn al-Arab, Jarabulus, Bab al-Salameh, Bab al-Hawa and Kasab (Assifir.com). Tel Abiad and Jarabulus (controlled by ISIS) and Kobanî (Ayn al-Arab) (currently controlled by the Kurds) are circled in red.

2) The victory at Kobanî is a practical and morale-raising achievement for the Kurdish forces in Syria (YPG). It may encourage the separatist aspirations of the Syrian Kurds living mainly in northern and eastern Syria, and strengthen their resolve to establish an autonomous Syrian Kurdistan. It can also raise the morale of the Kurds in Iraq fighting against ISIS. Thus it can be expected that the confrontations will become more intense between the YPG and ISIS in the areas where ISIS control interfaces with local Kurdish control in northern and eastern Syria (ISIS will probably seek to retaliate against the Kurds for the defeat suffered in Kobanî, and in the future may try to retake the city).

3) ISIS's failure to maintain control of Kobanî may have influence on other areas of conflict in Syria and Iraq where the coalition forces have successfully halted the momentum of ISIS attacks. The end of the Kobanî campaign will make it possible for the American and other coalition air forces to divert their efforts to other focal points of conflict and of ISIS control in Syria. Thus it can be assumed that ISIS's many enemies in Syria and Iraq will be encouraged by the defeat in Kobanî and try to gain territorial control over other regions of battle. On the other hand, ISIS may try to concentrate on locations where it has identified its enemies' weak spots to restore its damaged prestige and compensate for the defeat in Kobanî (following its retreat from Kobanî, ISIS now has available forces).

5. An important lesson learned from ISIS's failure in Kobanî is that airstrikes, regardless of how intensive they are, are not enough to win a campaign.^[1] In the case of Kobanî, the combination of the high combat capabilities and determination of the Kurdish forces defending the city, along with the aerial and logistic support of the coalition, were what led to ISIS's first defeat of such significance (as opposed to ISIS's other successes, including the continuation of the flow of foreign fighters from and terrorist attacks in Western countries). The lesson learned about the need for skilled ground fighters in Kobanî is relevant to other areas in Syria and Iraq where the international coalition is fighting ISIS.

6. For the chain of events at Kobanî and the results, see the Appendix.

Full document in PDF format

^[1]The coalition forces led by the United States carried out more than six hundred airstrikes in the Kobanî region at the expense of attacking targets in other locations in Syria. They focused on ISIS's supply lines, its weapons, vehicles and operatives. While they did in fact harm ISIS and make fighting difficult for it, they were not the reason for its defeat, and certainly not the only reason.

Overview

The Structure of this Study

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Main developments in Syria

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American estimates of the number of ISIS operatives

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Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula

Execution of alleged Israeli and Egyptian army agents

Global jihad organizations in other countries

Execution of Copts in Libya and Egypt's response

ISIS gains a foothold in Libya

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