On November 27, 2024, armed groups opposed to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad launched an operation against the Syrian army forces and their allies. They took control of Aleppo, Hama, and Homs and on December 8, 2024, they completed the takeover of Damascus. President al-Assad fled the country and received political asylum in Russia.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmad al-Shara (Abu Mohammad al-Julani), who led the military operation, declared victory for the entire Syrian people and accused the Assad regime of turning Syria into a farm for Iranian ambitions.
IDF forces took control of the buffer zone in the Golan Heights and took control of the Syrian side of Mount Hermon. Dozens of Israeli army airstrikes were reported against depots of advanced weapons and other capabilities that could fall into the hands of the rebels.
Hezbollah secretary-general Naim Qassem announced that the organization would help the Assad regime suppress the “aggression,” but as the rebels advanced, Hezbollah was forced to withdraw its forces from Syria.
The Iranian foreign minister claimed that Iran had informed al-Assad about the rebels’ plans to launch a military operation but was surprised by the Syrian army’s inability to respond effectively. Reports indicated that Tehran has established direct channels of communication with some of the opposition groups and expressed its readiness for dialogue with the new leadership.
The United States has attacked dozens of ISIS targets in central Syria to prevent the organization from taking advantage of the events in the country to recover.
The situation in Syria
On November 27, 2024, armed groups opposed to the Assad regime, led by the Islamist-jihadi organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression against the Syrian army forces and their allies in northwestern Syria. On November 30, 2024, other rebel organizations operating with Turkish support began Operation Dawn of Liberation in the Aleppo area against the Syrian regime forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-Arab militia operating with US support. The rebels took over the cities of Aleppo (December 3, 2024), Hama (December 4, 2024), and Homs (December 7, 2024), in addition to military bases, military airports, and security facilities that operated under the control of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah.
On December 6, 2024, the uprising spread to southern Syria. Rebels took over facilities of the police and security services in the city of al-Suwayda in southern Syria, which has a Druze majority, and nearby towns (al-Arabiya, December 8, 2024). Syrian army forces and pro-Iranian militias evacuated the city of Deir ez-Zor in eastern Syria, and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) took over the area and the Albukamal border crossing, which was under the control of the militias (Sharq, December 6, 2024).
On December 7, 2024, the rebels also completed their takeover of the provinces of Daraa and Quneitra in southern Syria, near the border with Israel, and also took over the city of Homs (al-Arabiya, December 8, 2024).
On the night of December 7-8, 2024, the rebels captured the capital Damascus, taking control of the city’s airport, radio and television stations, and the presidential palace. The Syrian Ministry of Defense announced the collapse of the Assad regime. The first announcement issued by the rebels on Syrian TV stated that “Damascus has been liberated, Assad has been deposed, the prisoners have been released” and that “a new era of a free Syria has begun” (al-Jazeera and al-Arabiya, December 8, 2024).
Right: The rebels in Damascus (al-Jadeed Press, December 8, 2024).
Left: A statue of Hafez al-Assad toppled in Tartus (al-Jazeera, December 8, 2024)
HTS leader Ahmad al-Shara (Abu Mohammad al-Julani) arrived in Damascus and gave a speech at the Umayyad Mosque, where he noted that the victory symbolized a new history for the region and accused the Assad regime of leaving Syria as a farm for Iranian ambitions and spreading sectarianism and corruption. Al-Shara stressed that “the country belongs to all of us, and victory belongs to all Syrians” (Sham, December 8, 2024).
Al-Shara at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus (Rudaw, December 8, 2024)
On the evening of December 8, 2024, it was reported that ousted President Bashar al-Assad and his family had arrived in Moscow after receiving political asylum on humanitarian grounds. The Russian Foreign Ministry noted that al-Assad had decided to resign and leave Syria after consultations with several parties involved in the Syrian conflict and that he had given instructions for an orderly transfer of power (RIA Novosti, December 8-9, 2024).
On December 9, 2024, it was reported that Mohammad al-Bashir, who headed the civilian government of the rebels in Idlib, had been appointed the new interim prime minister of Syria and that he would form a new government to manage the transitional phase after the overthrow of the regime. According to the report, al-Bashir participated in a meeting with Ahmad al-Shara and the last prime minister of the Assad regime, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali (al-Jazeera, December 9, 2024).
The situation in Syria. In green: the rebel-controlled territories; in yellow: areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF (Levant24, December 8, 2024)
IDF activity
On December 7, 2024, militants attacked a UN post in the Khader area in the Syrian Golan. The IDF assisted the UN force in repelling the attack and subsequently reinforced its presence in the Golan Heights border area. IDF forces also entered the buffer zone established as part of the 1974 ceasefire agreement. In addition, it was reported that IDF troops had taken control of the Syrian side of Mount Hermon (IDF Spokesperson, December 2-9, 2024).
The Israeli Air Force reportedly carried out airstrikes throughout Syria against depots of advanced weapons, air defense systems, and strategic assets used by the Assad regime that could fall into the hands of terrorist elements among the rebels. Among other things, there were reports of an attack on the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center near Damascus, where Iran is suspected of developing long-range guided missiles (Reuters and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, December 8-9, 2024). In addition, it was reported that the IDF attacked weapons depots belonging to the pro-Iranian militias in eastern Syria (al-Hadath, December 8, 2024).
Right: The attack attributed to Israel at the Mezze Air Base in Damascus (Sham Telegram channel, December 8, 2024). Left: IDF forces on the Syrian side of Mount Hermon (IDF Spokesperson, December 9, 2024)
Hezbollah and Lebanon
On December 5, 2024, Hezbollah secretary-general Naim Qassem referred to the events in Syria during his videotaped speech. He accused the rebels of operating with the support of the United States and Israel and stressed that Hezbollah “will stand by the Syrian regime in thwarting the aggression” (Radio al-Nur, December 5, 2024).
According to “two security sources in Lebanon,” Hezbollah sent a small number of “inspection forces” from Lebanon to help the Syrian regime prevent the rebels from capturing the city of Homs. A Syrian military officer and two “regional officials close to Tehran” confirmed that several Hezbollah operatives crossed the Lebanese border on the night of December 5-6, 2024, and took up positions in Homs (Reuters, December 6, 2024). Later, a “source close to Hezbollah” said that the organization had sent 2,000 fighters to the area of al-Qusayr on the Syrian-Lebanese border to defend its positions. According to the source, Hezbollah did not take part in any battle against the opposition forces (Agence France-Presse, December 7, 2024).
However, the advance of the rebel forces forced Hezbollah to withdraw from Syria. A “source close to Hezbollah” reported that the organization had ordered its operatives in the vicinity of Damascus and Homs to withdraw towards Lebanon and the Syrian coast (Agence France-Presse, December 8, 2024). According to a “senior officer” in the Syrian army, dozens of fighters from Hezbollah’s Radwan unit fled from Homs after having agreed with Syrian army officials that the city could not be defended (Reuters, December 7, 2024). In addition, a “source in the Syrian army” reported that Hezbollah forces withdrew from the city of al-Qusayr before it fell into the hands of the rebels and that Israel attacked Hezbollah’s weapons depots and hit one of the convoys (Reuters, October 8, 2024).
In view of the developments in Syria, the Lebanese army has taken security measures in the northern part of the Syrian-Lebanese border. It was reported that the army deployed the Land Border Regiment, two brigades, and special units, and significantly increased its patrols along the border (MTV, December 2, 2024). Lebanon’s interim prime minister, Najib Mikati, held an assessment of the situation with Lebanese Army Commander Joseph Aoun and the heads of the security services, stressing “the priority of managing the situation on the border strictly and distancing Lebanon from the consequences of the developments in Syria” (Lebanese prime minister’s X account, December 8, 2024).
Iran and the Shiite militias
After the rebels took over and overthrew the Assad regime, the Iranian Foreign Ministry stressed that determining the fate and making decisions regarding Syria’s future was the responsibility of its people “without military intervention or foreign coercion.” It was also stated that the military confrontations should be ended quickly, terrorist acts should be avoided, and a national dialogue should be started with the participation of all strata of Syrian society to establish “a broad government that will represent the entire Syrian people.” The statement stressed that Iran would continue to assist Syria to establish security and stability. The statement did not include any reference to ousted President Assad (the Iranian Foreign Ministry Telegram channel, December 8, 2024).
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi revealed that in his last meeting with Assad, he stressed to him that Tehran’s role is to help Syria and not to replace the Syrian army. He claimed that Iran knew that the United States and the “Zionist entity” had plans behind the scenes to cause continuous problems in the “axis of resistance,” and that after the developments in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, it was natural that these operations would continue. He noted that all the information about the rebels’ preparations in the Idlib province had been passed on to the Syrian government and army. The minister admitted that Iran was surprised by the Syrian army’s inability to deal with the rebel movement and the rapid pace of developments (IRNA, December 8, 2024).
A “senior Iranian official” said that Tehran had established direct channels to communicate with several groups led by the Syrian opposition. He added that Iran was ready for direct dialogue with the new leadership in Syria to avoid a hostile path between the two countries. The “source” stressed that there is a need for communication with opposition leaders to stabilize relations and avoid further tension in the region (Reuters, December 9, 2024).
A “source in the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq” said that the Iraqi “resistance” Coordination Committee is examining the situation in Syria after the fall of the regime to present a unified position regarding the coming period. He noted that the opposition forces intending to form a new government in Damascus are classified as a terrorist organization in Iraq and that they had participated with ISIS in the invasion of Iraq in 2014, which could put the security of the entire region to the test. He stressed that the “axis of resistance” is prepared for any emergency and any danger Iraq may face (al-Akhbar, December 9, 2024).
The deputy chairman of the Houthis’ communications authority, Nasr al-Din Amer, said that they are monitoring the developments in Syria and “the exploitation of the situation by the Zionist enemy and the advance of its army in Quneitra.” He asserted that the Israeli operation is “dangerous aggression whose results are the taking of new Arab territory” (Nasr al-Din Amer’s X account, December 8, 2024). Mohammad al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthis’ political bureau, added that the Israeli army’s entry into the buffer zone in the Golan Heights constitutes a violation of Syrian sovereignty, regardless of who controls the country (Mahammad al-Bukhaiti’s X account, December 8, 2024).
International reactions
United States
US President Joe Biden welcomed the overthrow of the Assad regime, emphasized the regime’s brutality, and called for Bashar al-Assad to be prosecuted. He acknowledged that the events pose a risk and uncertainty and added that the US would work with partners to help Syria seize the opportunity and manage the risks involved. Referring to the rebels, he noted that the administration is monitoring the statements, however, the actions on the ground will be examined (Reuters, December 8, 2024).
A “senior official” in the US administration said that the United States is in contact with all groups involved in the fighting in Syria, including HTS, which is on the US list of designated terrorist organizations. He did not rule out the possibility that the United States would remove the organization from its list of designated terrorist organizations to allow more extensive cooperation. Another “senior official” noted that the administration was in the process of assessing the situation in real time (The Washington Post, December 8, 2024).
On December 8, 2024, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that air forces, including strategic bombers, had carried out precision strikes against more than 75 known ISIS camps and operatives in central Syria. CENTCOM stressed that the operations are intended to ensure that ISIS cannot take advantage of the current situation in Syria and regroup (CENTCOM X account, December 8, 2024).
Turkey
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan noted that the new regime in Syria should be inclusive. According to him, the Syrian people must determine their future after the fall of the Assad regime (Reuters, December 8, 2024).
European Union
EU Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas said that the end of the Assad dictatorship was a “positive and hoped-for development” and that the overthrow of the regime was also evidence of the weakness of Russia and Iran, which supported the regime (Kaja Kallas’ X account, December 8, 2024).
France and Germany congratulated the people of Syria on the overthrow of the Assad regime. French President Emmanuel Macron referred to the regime as “barbaric” and expressed hope for peace, freedom, and unity for the Syrian people (Agence France-Presse, December 8, 2024). German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared that “this is good news, Assad has brutally oppressed his people and is responsible for the deaths of many” (Agence France-Presse, December 8, 2024).
