Spotlight on Syria (Following the Toppling of the Syrian Regime) December 16 – 23 , 2024

Highlights

• Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) began to consolidate its rule in Syria with the appointment of defense and foreign ministers as well as the appointment of commanders of organizations that helped topple the Assad regime to the positions of provincial governors.
• HTS leader Ahmad al-Shara (Abu Mohammad al-Julani) held meetings with senior foreign officials who arrived in Damascus, including the Turkish foreign minister. The American assistant secretary of state praised al-Shara and announced the removal of the bounty placed on his head.
• A meeting of senior Druze leaders with al-Shara drew criticism in the community and warnings against cooperation with the new government.
• It was claimed that the Syrian regime closed the airspace to Iranian planes that made their way to Lebanon.
• A Hezbollah member of parliament warned that if Israel engaged in military action against Syria, Hezbollah would help Damascus. The prime minister of Lebanon’s interim government instructed the official institutions to collaborate with HTS on security matters.
• There were reports of continued Israeli airstrikes throughout Syria and the advance of IDF forces in southern Syria. Al-Shara stressed that the removal of Hezbollah and the pro-Iranian militias from Syria had eliminated the justification for Israeli activity against Syria and called for the involvement of the international community.
• Turkey is reportedly concentrating forces on the border with Syria in preparation for a large-scale operation against the Kurdish militia.
• The United States carried out airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria and eliminated a senior commander in the Deir ez-Zor area.

The activity of the new revolutionary government

Senior appointments

• According to sources, HTS leader Ahmad al-Shara (Abu Mohammad al-Julani) appointed the organization’s military commander, Murhaf Abu Qasra, aka Abu Hassan al-Hamawi, as minister of defense in the new transitional government. The report was published after al-Shara held a meeting with senior members of the armed factions to discuss the establishment of a new army in Syria (al-Jazeera, December 21, 2024).

• The General Headquarters of the Revolutionary Factions in Syria announced the appointment of Asaad al-Shibani as foreign minister in the new transitional government. Al-Shibani, codenamed Zaid al-Attar, was one of the founders of the al-Nusra Front, al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria, led by al-Shara/al-Julani, which later became Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). He was in charge of political issues in the HTS government which operated in Idlib until the beginning of the offensive against the Assad regime (al-Sharq, December 21, 2024).
• “A source belonging to the new government in Damascus” reported that Ahmad al-Shara had appointed several new governors in Syria who belonged to the organizations that collaborated with HTS in the attack against the Assad regime. Amer al-Sheikh (a former commander in HTS) was appointed governor of the Damascus periphery, and Hassan Soufan (a former commander in HTS) was appointed governor of Latakia (al-Quds al-Araby, December 18, 2024). The commander of the al-Sham Front, Azzam Gharib, has been appointed governor of Aleppo. Gharib is also one of the leaders of the pro-Turkish Operation Dawn of Freedom, which targets, among other things, the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)(Asharq Al-Awsat, December 21, 2024).

The new government’s activity

• Syria’s transitional government prime minister, Mohammad al-Bashir, noted that the new administration faces major challenges, including rampant corruption, crumbling infrastructure, and the dire economic situation. He said many institutions need to be reorganized, including the outdated court system, so that past crimes can be dealt with. He noted that financial reserves are extremely low, and debts are heavy after the previous regime plundered state resources. Al-Bashir accused the international community of betraying the Syrian people, saying that now it must support the country’s reconstruction processes. He also called on Syrian refugees to return to their homeland and participate in the reconstruction of the new Syria. He also demanded that the international community lift the sanctions and release frozen funds to help Syria rebuild (al-Jazeera, December 18, 2024).

Foreign relations of the new regime

• This past week, HTS leader Ahmad al-Shara (Abu Mohammad al-Julani) held meetings with foreign delegations that arrived in Damascus:
  • On December 16, 2024, al-Shara met with representatives of the British Foreign Office. He reportedly stressed that what happened in Syria was a victory for the oppressed people and that it took place without destroying infrastructure or uprooting residents. He noted that it is necessary to build a state of law and institutions and to establish the security of the state. He emphasized the need to resume relations with Britain and lift the sanctions imposed on Syria to allow the Syrian exiles to return to their country (Telegram channel of the General Command – Syria, December 16-17, 2024).

• • A diplomatic delegation from France arrived in Syria to hold talks with the new authorities in Damascus. France’s special envoy to Syria noted that France is preparing to stand by the Syrians during the transition period and expressed hope that it would pass quietly. On December 17, 2024, the French embassy in Damascus reopened for the first time since 2012, and it was reported that French military personnel were stationed outside the mission (Agence France-Presse, December 17, 2024).
  • On December 18, 2024, al-Shara met with representatives of the German Foreign Ministry (Telegram channel of the General Command – Syria, December 18, 2024). The two sides reportedly discussed the political change in Syria and human rights issues, and the delegation inspected the German embassy building in Damascus. The German Foreign Ministry said that they also discussed German expectations regarding the protection of minorities and women’s rights (Reuters, December 18, 2024).
  • On December 20, 2024, a meeting was held between al-Shara and an American delegation led by Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf. The Syrian statement said that the US delegation expressed support for the steps taken by the new government, especially with regard to strengthening stability, promoting economic growth, and achieving equal representation for all components of Syrian society. It was also reported that the Americans praised the positive steps taken to establish a Ministry of Defense and a unified army. According to the statement, al-Shara stressed that the Syrian people saved the region from chaos and foreign interventions and called for the removal of the sanctions imposed on Syria (Telegram channel of the General Command – Syria, December 20, 2024). Leaf noted that the talks were positive, and that al-Shara was “pragmatic.” According to her, the new government will need to demonstrate efforts to advance Syria in order to secure relief from the sanctions. Leaf announced that the administration was removing the $10 million bounty that had been placed on al-Shara’s head since 2017 (Asharq al-Awsat, December 20, 2024). A “knowledgeable source” reported that the incoming Trump administration urged the Biden administration not to remove HTS from the list of terrorist organizations in the near future to ensure it is the right course of action, and that Trump’s people also urged the current administration to extend sanctions on institutions and individuals in Syria (Sky News, December 18, 2024).
  • On December 22, 2024, al-Shara met with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, and among other things, hosted him for coffee on the summit of Mount Qasioun, which overlooks Damascus. The two reportedly discussed the situation in Syria and relations between the countries in the era after the fall of the Assad regime. Al-Shara noted that they discussed strengthening the government and called for the lifting of sanctions. Fidan called on the leaders of the Arab world to open contacts with the new leadership, stressing that the regime in Damascus needs international support. Fidan implicitly referred to the Kurdish militia of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) when he made it clear that there is no place for “terrorist organizations” in Syria, not even because they are fighting ISIS (al-Jazeera and TRT, December 22, 2024).

Dismantling the armed factions

• Ahmad al-Shara announced that all the rebel factions in Syria would be dismantled to integrate them into the Ministry of Defense and that all fighters would be subject to the law (Euronews, December 17, 2024). He also noted that foreign fighters who came to Syria to join HTS to fight the Assad regime may receive Syrian citizenship. According to him, they are part of the movement that brought about the overthrow of the regime and that should be “celebrated” (thecradle.co, December 17, 2024).
• Ahmad al-Shara unveiled plans by the transitional government to improve the economic and security conditions of the Syrians. As part of the plans, all armed factions will be disbanded, and the use of weapons will be restricted to authorized entities associated with state institutions. In addition, mandatory military service will be abolished, and military salaries will be increased by 400% (Syria TV, December 16, 2024).
• It was reported that the leadership of the revolutionaries in Syria informed senior Hamas officials that it had decided to disarm the Palestinian factions in Syrian territory and even to transfer their assets and money to the new leadership. According to the report, the decision relates mainly to factions that have collaborated with the Assad regime in the past and are expected to be prosecuted in the future. However, the report indicates that the new regime does not intend to act against Hamas or the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) due to these organizations’ ties with Iran. It is claimed that the leaders of the revolutionaries even expressed to Hamas and PIJ leaders their appreciation for the October 7, 2023, attack, noting that it was “inspiring” and that they had relied on it as part of the surprise attack against the Assad regime (Rai al-Youm, December 17, 2024).

Relations with the Druze

• On December 16, 2024, al-Shara met with the Druze leadership in Syria. He emphasized the importance of ensuring that the country is not divided along sectarian lines, which only fosters division. He also highlighted the extensive destruction across the country, stressing the need for all Syrians, both within and outside Syria, to collaborate. This includes dismantling armed factions and unifying fighters under the Ministry of Defense to ensure everyone is subject to the rule of law. The Druze leadership, in turn, affirmed their commitment to being an integral part of Syria (Telegram channel of the Directorate of Military Operations, December 16, 2024).

• The spiritual leader of the Druze community in Syria, Sheikh Hikmat al-Hajri, said that relations between his community and al-Shara are very positive, but that he is waiting for government achievements, not just words. He stressed that the Druze community wants to stay in Syria and live in peace and aspires to a government that includes all colors in Syria (The Middle East Eye, December 22, 2024).
• On the other hand, a statement issued on behalf of the “Bani al-Suwayda and the Druze Mountain” said that any collaboration with the HTS leader should be rejected. They warned against receiving support or collaboration with HTS or any party with “suspicious agendas” because it would only lead to a violation of the rights of the Druze. They called for strengthening the internal unity of the residents of al-Suwayda against “these suspicious movements” and warned that any agreement with al-Shara constitutes “a betrayal of their national aspirations.” The announcement also claimed that the Druze leaders who participated in the meeting with al-Shara had received about half a million dollars and that it was an attempt to buy the political positions of the Druze in al-Suwayda (al-Nashra, December 18, 2024).

Relations with Iran

• Ahmad Al-Shara noted that the revolution in Syria set the “Iranian project” in the region back 40 years, with almost no casualties. He accused Iran of using Syria to spread wars and destruction across the region, as well as flooding the area with drugs and Captagon. He emphasized that his organization successfully expelled the Iranian militias from the country and completely closed Syria off to Iranian weapons (Asharq Al-Awsat, December 20, 2024).
• Al-Shara appointed Abd al-Rahman Fattahi as his advisor on Iranian affairs. Fattahi, known as Abu Safeia al-Kurdi (i.e., the Kurd), is a Kurdish Salafist-jihadi mufti known for his preaching of jihad. In the past, he was detained in Iran for three years, and after his release, he went to Syria and joined jihadi organizations (Aram News, December 17, 2024).
• It is claimed that the new regime in Syria has closed the airspace to aircraft traffic from Iran. According to flight tracking websites, Iranian Mahan Air Flight 1152 from Tehran to Beirut was forced to bypass Syrian airspace and fly over Turkey and the Mediterranean Sea on flights that took place on December 17-21, 2024 (Flight Radar, December 22, 2024).
• On December 21, 2024, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei reported that an employee of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Davoud Bitraf, had died after “terrorist elements” shot at the car in which he was traveling on December 15, 2024. Baghaei said it was an act of terrorism and noted that the transitional government in Syria had a responsibility to identify and punish those responsible (Press TV, December 21, 2024).

Relations with Hezbollah and Lebanon

Hezbollah

• Hassan Fadlallah, a member of Hezbollah’s faction in the Lebanese parliament, warned that if Israel started a war against Syria, the organization would intervene because Hezbollah will stand by anyone Israel is fighting against, regardless of their political position (al-Jadeed, December 18, 2024).
• Ibrahim al-Amin, editor of the Lebanese daily al-Akhbar, who is close to Hezbollah, accused the Assad regime of not listening to Iran, saying that while it was intensifying its ties with Russia, it created the potential to topple it and as a result, cause such significant damage to the “axis of resistance.” According to al-Amin, Assad deceived the Iranians and Hezbollah and did not reveal to them the full picture of his contacts with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the Gulf states. Al-Amin stressed that even in the final stages of the war in Lebanon, Assad refused to take part in opening a direct front against Israel, thus weakening his ability and that of the “axis of resistance” against Israel. Al-Amin also claimed that Russia had given up Syria and “sold” it to the Turks (al-Akhbar, December 19, 2024).

Lebanon

• A “source” reported that Lebanon’s interim prime minister, Najib Mikati, had instructed the official institutions in Lebanon to cooperate with HTS and coordinate with them on all security issues between the two countries. According to the source, the first implementation of the directive was in a meeting held on December 18, 2024, between HTS representatives and representatives of Lebanon’s general security services at the al-Masna border crossing, and the sides agreed on a framework for coordination to maintain security on both sides of the border (Asharq Al-Awsat, December 19, 2024).
• The former leader of Lebanon’s Druze community, former chairman of the Progressive Socialist Party Walid Jumblatt, and his son, the current political leader of the community, Timur, met in Damascus with Ahmad al-Shara. During their meeting, Walid Jumblatt congratulated the Syrian people on their “great victory and their struggle to be free from oppression and tyranny.” He expressed his hope that relations between Syria and Lebanon would return to normal through diplomacy and that those who committed crimes against the Lebanese would bear the consequences and be prosecuted. Al-Shara stressed that Syria would respect Lebanon’s sovereignty and security stability and expressed his desire to build a close strategic relationship between the two countries (Lebanon24, December 22, 2024).

IDF activity

• This past week, Israeli airstrikes were reported near the area of al-Sayyida Zaynab in Damascus, against a military target in the northern part of the city of Homs, and against weapons depots in the Tartus province (Sputnik News Agency, December 16-22, 2024). According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, in the ten days since the overthrow of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024, about 500 Israeli airstrikes have been carried out against military assets in Syria, targeting sites in Damascus and its countryside, and in the provinces of Deir ez-Zor, Hama, Homs, al-Hasakah, al-Raqqah, Latakia, Tartus, Daraa, al-Suwayda, Quneitra, and Aleppo (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, December 18, 2024).
• It was claimed that IDF forces continued to advance in southern Syria. According to reports, the forces reached a depth of nine kilometers inside the rural area of Daraa and entered the village of Qoya and the al-Wahda Dam near the Syrian-Jordanian border, positioning themselves at strategic points and demanding that the residents hand over their weapons. Israeli vehicles were also reported on the outskirts of the town of al-Rafid in the southern countryside of Quneitra. In addition, it was reported that IDF forces ordered residents of the city of al-Baath in Quneitra to hand over their weapons (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, December 16-22, 2024).
• On December 20, 2024, a demonstration was held in the village of Marabah in the western periphery of Daraa, demanding the withdrawal of IDF forces from the area. IDF forces reportedly fired at the demonstrators, and as a result, a young demonstrator from the village of Qoya was wounded in the leg and evacuated to the hospital (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and Daraa24, December 20, 2024).

The new Syrian regime’s attitude to IDF activity

• HTS leader Ahmad al-Shara expressed opposition to Israeli activity in Syrian territory. He emphasized that he would not allow Syrian territory to be used for attacks against Israel or any other country and warned that Israel must stop its attacks in Syria and withdraw from the areas it has occupied. According to him, Israel’s justification for its actions was the presence of Hezbollah and Iranian militias in Syria, but that justification no longer exists (The Times, December 17, 2024). Additionally, al-Shara stressed that Syria would continue to adhere to the 1974 disengagement agreement on the border with Israel and called on the international community to ensure that Israel also complies with the agreement (New York Times, December 17, 2024).
• Al-Shara reportedly told the Western diplomats with whom he met that he sees Israel’s recent “occupations” in Syrian territory as an attempt to “turn back the clock and revive the remnants of the fallen Syrian regime.” He claimed that Israel had entered a situation of “subverting the Syrian people.” According to the report, al-Shara suggested that the diplomats talk to the Israelis about the issue, saying that they bear responsibility for the consequences of Israel’s activity. He also warned that the Israeli steps could eventually lead to the return of Hezbollah and Iran to Syria (Rai al-Youm, December 20, 2024).
• HTS military leader Murhaf Abu Qasra, who was appointed defense minister in the transitional government, said that there was no justification for the Israeli attacks on military sites and the “invasion” that took place in southern Syria. He called on the international community to find a solution to the issue, stressing that Syria would not be a starting point for any hostilities (Agence France-Presse, December 18, 2024).

The conflict between the Kurds and Turkey

• According to a “senior American source,” Turkey and pro-Turkish militias have begun reinforcing forces on the border with Syria, apparently in preparation for a large-scale invasion of the Kurdish region. It was noted that a senior official in the Kurdish region spoke with US President-elect Donald Trump and asked him to pressure Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan not to send troops to the border (Wall Street Journal, December 17, 2024).
• The commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mazloum Abdi, said that Kurdish fighters who had come to Syria from across the Middle East to support the Kurdish forces would leave if a ceasefire was reached in the conflict with Turkey in northern Syria. He said that the withdrawal of the fighters was one of Turkey’s main demands. Abdi added that Turkey and its Syrian allies were preparing to attack Kobani or Ayn al-Arab on the border. Therefore, the Syrian Democratic Forces have proposed to withdraw from the area if there is a complete ceasefire – only internal security forces and American forces will remain in the area (Reuters, December 20, 2024).
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stressed that his country would do everything in its power to build the new Syria. He added that Turkey and Syria would cooperate in various fields and that Turkey would assist the new Syrian government in eliminating terrorist organizations in the country to establish security (Anadolu News Agency, December 20, 2024).
• The spokesman for the Kurdish National Council in Syria, Faisal Yusuf, said that an American-French delegation had met with the leadership of the council about the importance of the Kurdish dialogue in Syria and that additional meetings would be held soon. A “source” reported that a delegation from the international coalition discussed the demands of the Syrian Kurds during a “consultative meeting” held in the city of al-Qamishli in the presence of about 500 politicians and representatives of the Kurdish community. The attendees discussed the need to exert pressure on the SDF to disengage from the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK). According to one of the participants, the forum aims to exert pressure on the Kurdish political movement to unite its ranks, especially in light of the current situation in Syria (North Press, December 22, 2024).
• Turkish Minister of Defense Yaşar Güler visited the Syrian border and expressed confidence that the new Syrian government and the Syrian National Army, supported by Turkey, would expel the fighters of the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG) within the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from all areas they have occupied in northeastern Syria. He emphasized that Turkey would take all necessary measures until all “terrorist elements” beyond the border are removed (Turkish Ministry of Defense X account, December 22, 2024).

Activity against ISIS in Syria

• On December 16, 2024, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that its forces had attacked known ISIS camps and operatives in Syria from the air and that 16 ISIS terrorist operatives had been killed. According to the announcement, the airstrikes were carried out in areas controlled by the Assad regime and Russia, and the pressure on ISIS will continue (CENTCOM X account, December 16, 2024).
• On December 19, 2024, CENTCOM carried out a targeted assassination in Deir ez-Zor against a senior ISIS leader referred to as Abu Yusuf. Another ISIS operative was killed along with him (CENTCOM X account, December 20, 2024). According to reports, the attack was carried out against a vehicle near the Hasrat Bridge in the Albukamal area, and the fatalities were Abu Yusuf, who served as the emir of Wilayat al-Khair, the name ISIS gave to the area of Deir ez-Zor, and Hawash al-Ajil from the village of al-Ghabra in the Albukamal area (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, December 20, 2024).
• The spokesperson for the US Department of Defense, Pat Ryder, reported that there are approximately 2,000 American soldiers stationed in Syria, compared to the previously reported figure of about 900 soldiers. According to Ryder, the additional troops are a “temporary deployment” sent a few months ago to participate in a mission against ISIS (Reuters, December 20, 2024).
• American “officials” said that they were working to prevent the realization of a scenario of a massive prison break-in and the release of thousands of ISIS operatives. One of the “senior officials” warned that it was a “ticking time bomb” and that if Turkey did not stop its attacks against the Syrian Democratic Forces, there could be a break-in into the prisons in the Kurdish autonomous areas (Politico, December 18, 2024).

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