Spotlight on Iran

Key Trends

• A sharp escalation was noted in the tone of threats issued by Iran and the Axis of Resistance against Israel following the expansion of IDF operations in Lebanon. Iranian officials emphasized a direct link between a potential agreement with the United States and a ceasefire in Lebanon.
• Iran continues its efforts to halt the process of disarming pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq and integrating them into the Iraqi state, even though some militias have already initiated the process.

 

Highlights^[1]

• Iranian officials condemned the intensification of Israeli strikes in Lebanon and threatened to act against Israel if the IDF attacks Beirut. The Houthis and a pro-Iranian militia in Iraq also warned that they would resume attacks in light of the escalation.
• The Majles Speaker spoke with the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament following President Trump’s announcement regarding the renewal of the ceasefire. He emphasized Iran’s commitment to achieving a ceasefire in Lebanon within the framework of negotiations with the United States to end the war.
• The advisor of the Iranian Supreme Leader met in Tehran with the Hezbollah representative to Iran and reaffirmed Iran’s support for the “Resistance” in Lebanon.
• Following the targeted killing of the two commanders of Hamas’ military wing in the Gaza Strip, the IRGC emphasized Iran’s support for the “Resistance” until “the Zionist regime is wiped off the face of the earth.”
• Several Shiite militias in Iraq began taking steps toward their military disarmament and integration into state institutions. A senior Iranian security official visited Baghdad as part of Iranian efforts to curb this process.

Iran and the Militias amid Developments in Lebanon

• The intensification of Israeli airstrikes, the IDF’s maneuver in southern Lebanon, and threats to strike Hezbollah targets in Beirut’s Dahiyeh sparked furious reactions from senior Iranian officials, threatening retaliation against Israel while continuing to link negotiations with the United States over ending the war to a halt in the fighting in Lebanon. The following are some notable statements:
  • The spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baghaei, condemned the IDF strikes in Lebanon during his weekly press conference and called on the international community to act toward halting them. He emphasized that a ceasefire in Lebanon is an inseparable part of any future agreement between Iran and the United States to end the war. Responding to a question regarding the lack of response from the Lebanese government to the IDF’s operations in the south of the country, Baghaei stated that defending the country’s sovereignty is one of the key tasks of any government, and that every country is obligated to protect its borders and take all necessary steps to do so. He added that the Lebanese “Resistance” has been the main obstacle against the expansionist ambitions of the “Zionist regime” for decades, and that today, more than ever, its importance in defending Lebanon has become clear. He further noted that Iran considers itself obligated to spare no effort in assisting Lebanon (Mehr, June 1, 2026).
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that a violation of the ceasefire between Iran and the United States on any front, including Lebanon, would be considered a violation on all fronts, and that Israel and the United States would bear responsibility for the consequences of any violation (Abbas Araghchi’s X account, June 1, 2026).
  • Majles Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf defiantly stated that the imposition of the naval blockade and the intensification of “war crimes in Lebanon by the genocidal Zionist regime” are clear evidence that the United States is not committed to the ceasefire. He added that every choice carries a price, that the bill will ultimately come due, and that everything will eventually return to its proper place (Qalibaf’s X account, June 1, 2026).
  • The spokesperson for the Iranian Armed Forces, Abolfazl Shekarchi, warned that Iran would not tolerate the continuation of Israeli strikes in Lebanon. He declared that the “aggressive and child-killing Zionist regime” exploited the ceasefire to “blatantly violate” Lebanon’s sovereignty, killing over 3,000 innocent civilians, including women and children. He added that while the leaders of Western countries choose to remain silent or support these “crimes against humanity,” Iran warns the leaders of the “Zionist regime” and its supporters that the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic will not tolerate the continuation of “brutal crimes” against Lebanon (Mehr, June 1, 2026).

• • The commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Ali Abdollahi, warned that if Israel’s threats to strike Beirut’s Dahiyeh are realized, the residents of northern Israel must leave the area if they do not wish to be harmed. At the same time, the IRGC Intelligence Organization issued a statement declaring that Iran views the crossing of red lines in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip as a direct war and the enforcement of a price on its national security and the “Islamic Resistance.” The statement added that Iran is determined to conduct defensive operations by breaking the equation and opening new fronts (Tasnim, June 1, 2026).
  • Qods Force commander Esmail Qaani declared in a statement that “Zionist bullying in Lebanon and Gaza” backed by US support would strengthen the determination of the Axis of Resistance to expand its support in both arenas, act to open additional fronts, and make maritime traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait resemble that through the Strait of Hormuz. He noted that the “wretched Zionist regime” should understand that its “crimes” in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip simultaneously will drown it in the vortex of Hezbollah’s operations and a renewed flood by Palestinian fighters (IRNA, June 1, 2026).
  • The President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, stated in a telephone conversation with the Prime Minister of Japan, Sanae Takaichi, that the “repeated violations” of the ceasefire in Lebanon, the continued displacement of Lebanese civilians from their homes, and the political and military support of the United States for the actions of the “Zionist regime” are deeply concerning. He called on the international community to play a more effective role in curbing this trend (website of the President of Iran, June 1, 2026).
  • A member of the Majles National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, assessed that the United States had granted Israel an opportunity to alter the situation in southern Lebanon and regarding Hezbollah to its advantage prior to signing the memorandum of understanding with Iran. He noted that Washington appears interested in achieving a superior position on several regional issues before the agreement is signed so that it can demand greater concessions in future negotiations. According to him, one of the clauses in the memorandum stipulates an end to confrontations on all fronts, and it is possible that some regional actors are attempting to change the situation on the ground to their advantage before the move is finalized and made permanent (Tabnak, May 31, 2026).
• Shiite militias belonging to the Axis of Resistance also warned of a resumption of attacks if Israel operates in Beirut’s Dahiyeh and escalates its activities against Hezbollah:
  • “Sources close to the Houthis” stressed that coordination between the Houthis, Hezbollah, and other members of the Axis of Resistance remains active, that any Israeli escalation will be met with a unified response from members of the axis, and that the Houthis will not allow Lebanon’s sovereignty to be violated or Hezbollah to be isolated. A “Yemeni military source” reported that the Houthis are “monitoring developments in Lebanon and Palestine” and are considering entering “a decisive battle against the enemy” if the confrontation with Hezbollah escalates. The source added that the military confrontation in Lebanon illustrates the resilience of the “Lebanese Resistance,” and that the war of attrition that developed in this arena – costing the “enemy” heavy losses “in both lives and equipment” – exposed Hezbollah’s “tactical superiority” against the “enemy,” despite the latter’s significant advantage in equipment and resources (Al-Akhbar, June 1, 2026).
  • The Houthi Foreign Ministry warned against “the ongoing aggression against Palestine, Lebanon, and Iran by the United States and the Israeli enemy entity.” According to the ministry, “Israeli aggression” has claimed the lives of 900 Palestinians since the declaration of the ceasefire in Gaza on October 10, 2025, and more than 3,300 Lebanese since the collapse of the ceasefire in Lebanon on March 2, 2026. The ministry stated that this “aggression” proves to the Lebanese authorities that negotiations with Israel are a “losing bet,” and that the “Resistance” is the only way to reclaim “Lebanon’s rights” (Houthi Foreign Ministry Telegram channel, May 29, 2026).
• The Iraqi pro-Iranian militia Ashab al-Kahf (“Companions of the Cave”) threatened that the Eilat region and its port would fall within the militia’s “sphere of operations” if “our people” in Beirut and the Dahiyeh are attacked, in coordination with the Axis of Resistance (Ashab al-Kahf Telegram channel, June 2, 2026).
• Following President Trump’s announcement regarding the renewal of the ceasefire in Lebanon, Majles Speaker Qalibaf spoke with the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berri. He emphasized to him that if Israel continues its strikes in Lebanon, Iran will not only halt negotiations with the United States but will also stand firmly against the “Zionist regime.” He added that Hezbollah and Amal are defending both their homeland and the Islamic nation, and that the bond between Iran and Lebanon is unbreakable. According to him, Iran is determined to bring about a ceasefire across all of Lebanon, particularly in the south of the country. He further noted that if an agreement to end the war is reached between Iran and the United States, it will include the cessation of attacks on all fronts, especially in Lebanon. The Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament thanked Iran for its efforts to bring an end to the Israeli strikes (ISNA, June 2, 2026).
• In a commentary, the Iranian newspaper Kayhan addressed the escalation of Israeli strikes in Lebanon, arguing that Iran could declare the ceasefire with the United States and Israel null and void and resume operations against any party that violates it, unless Israel halts its military operations in Lebanon within a few days. The hardline daily added that such a warning from Iran would immediately affect energy markets and trigger alarm bells in Washington regarding a resumption of the war. According to the daily, if Iran declares that it is unwilling to tolerate violations of the ceasefire by the United States in the Persian Gulf and by Israel in Lebanon, it is highly probable that this would lead to a cessation of military operations against Lebanon rather than an escalation of the war (Kayhan, May 31, 2026).
• The advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mohammad Mokhber, met at the Hezbollah office in Tehran with the organization’s representative to Tehran, Abdullah Safieddine, to discuss developments in Lebanon. Mokhber emphasized the unity of the Axis of Resistance and noted that any ceasefire with Iran that does not include Lebanon and the other Resistance fronts is meaningless. Mokhber declared that Iran stands completely alongside the people and the Resistance in Lebanon and is determined to support the entire Axis of Resistance, expressing confidence in the victory of the Resistance. According to him, Hezbollah fighters are sacrificing their lives for the axis and for the Lebanese people. He added that if Hezbollah is weakened, the greatest damage will be inflicted on all of Lebanon and all its residents, and therefore, there is no possibility of it backing down. The Hezbollah representative thanked Iran for its support and emphasized that the experience of the past two and a half years proved that there was no guarantee that the “Zionist regime” would respect the ceasefire (Mehr, June 1, 2026).

Iran and the Militias amid Developments in the Palestinian Arena

• The IRGC issued a statement following the consecutive targeted killings of the heads of Hamas’ military wing in the Gaza Strip, Izz al-Din al-Haddad and Mohammed Odeh. The statement noted that “the list of crimes of the fake, occupying Zionist regime,” spanning nearly eight decades, proves once again to the world, and particularly to those who claim to defend human rights and the freedom of nations, that as long as the “child-killing Zionist regime” is not wiped off the face of the earth, the West Asia region will not know tranquility. It was further stated that the deaths of the two senior commanders expose once more the “brutal and satanic” nature of the “terrorist Zionist regime,” and that it will not weaken the “Resistance” but will only reinforce the continuation of jihad until “the liberation of Palestine and Jerusalem.” The statement emphasized Iran’s support for the Axis of Resistance and the ongoing determination of the IRGC to punish the “occupiers of Jerusalem and their supporters” (ISNA, May 28, 2026).
• Houthi leader Abd al-Malik al-Houthi published a message of condolence following the targeted killing of Hamas’ military wing leader Mohammed Odeh.^[2] In the message, he stated that his death joins those of the leaders before him, illustrating the sacrifice and determination of the “brothers” and mujahideen in Hamas whose resolve “has not weakened in the face of all challenges” (Almasirah, May 27, 2026). Houthi Chief of Staff Youssef Hassan al-Madani noted in a condolence message that Odeh was one of the most important commanders in the “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle and that he “astounded the world with great strategic deception and a major intelligence victory over the enemy.” Al-Madani further claimed that Odeh was “a pillar of the Axis of Resistance and Jihad and a cornerstone in the struggle in Allah’s path,” praising Hamas’ military wing for its determination and perseverance despite the numerous sacrifices it has sustained (Telegram channel of the Houthi Military Media, May 27, 2026).

 Iran’s Involvement in Iraq

• Iran’s Ambassador to Iraq, Mohammad Kazem Al-e Sadeq, met with the newly elected Patriarch of the Chaldean Church in Iraq, Mar Paulos III Nona. The meeting was also attended by the representative of the Assyrian and Chaldean Christians in the Iranian Majles. The ambassador congratulated the Christian cleric on the beginning of his tenure and wished him success in his role. He emphasized that security and stability in the region, as well as the protection of holy religious sites, are the result of a joint effort by the peoples of the region – Muslims and Christians alike – and of the ongoing sacrifice of the martyred commanders Qasem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in the fight against ISIS terrorism. Furthermore, he underscored Iran’s support for the unity of Iraq and the preservation of the historical identity of the Chaldean Christian community as an integral part of Iraq. He invited the Patriarch to visit Iran and meet with representatives of the Christian community in the country. The Chaldean Patriarch expressed satisfaction with the meeting and voiced hope to visit Iran at an appropriate date (ISNA, May 31, 2026).

 The Pro-Iranian Militias in Iraq

The issue of militia disarmament

• During the week, progress was recorded in efforts to bring about the disarmament of Shiite militias and their integration into Iraq’s official security mechanisms amid the formation of the new government. The following are the main developments:
  • The leader of the Sadrist Movement in Iraq, Muqtada al-Sadr, announced that “out of concern for the general national interest,” the Saraya al-Salam (“Peace Companies”) militia, which operates within al-Sadr’s organization, will separate from the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) – the umbrella organization of the militias – and join the official Iraqi security branches. Additionally, al-Sadr called on other factions within the PMF to surrender their weapons to the state (Muqtada al-Sadr’s Telegram channel, May 27, 2026).
  • Subsequently, the Coordination Framework of Shiite parties, which represents the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, also announced that during a meeting held with Iraq’s designated Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, it had reaffirmed its support for the plan to place all weapons under state control, as well as for severing the ties between the PMF and political, partisan, and social organizations. The Framework further stated that the decision to declare war or peace falls exclusively within the authority of state institutions, such as parliament and the government, and that any action taken outside this framework constitutes a violation of the law (Asharq Al-Awsat, June 2, 2026).

• • Following this, the Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq militia announced the establishment of a committee to work toward its separation from the PMF and its integration into Iraqi state institutions after surrendering the weapons in its possession (website of the Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq militia, June 2, 2026). The Kata’ib Imam Ali militia also announced its decision to sever its ties with the PMF and “immediately” initiate steps to hand over weapons to Iraqi state institutions, within the framework of “the national will and the decision of the brothers in the Coordination Framework” (Telegram channel of Kata’ib Imam Ali, June 2, 2026).
• Conversely, Kata’ib Hezbollah stated that they welcome any group that is not part of the “Islamic Resistance” deciding to hand over its weapons to the state in a manner that strengthens security and stability in Iraq. However, the militia declared that “jihadist activity” is a collective duty, and it must fulfill it even on behalf of those who have chosen to cease it. Furthermore, the militia offered to supervise the handover of weapons and to receive any advanced weaponry surrendered in exchange for payment (Telegram channel of Kata’ib Hezbollah, May 31, 2026).
• It was reported that a senior Iranian intelligence official from the IRGC arrived in Iraq as part of Iranian efforts to prevent the disarmament of pro-Iranian Shiite militias and their integration into the Iraqi state, which would distance them from Iranian influence. According to the report, the official is not Qods Force commander Esmail Qaani, who recently visited Iraq twice. An “Iraqi official” assessed that Iran has two possible alternatives in light of developments in Iraq: offering extensive economic incentives to pro-Iranian militias or demanding that they transfer their leadership to new commanders (Al-Modon, June 2, 2026).

Senior Kata’ib Hezbollah figure involved in terror attacks in the West

• The US Department of Justice stated that Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, a senior figure in the Kata’ib Hezbollah militia who was arrested in Turkey and extradited to the United States, will face charges on eight counts, primarily related to his membership in Kata’ib Hezbollah and the Iranian Qods Force, as well as his alleged planning and execution of approximately twenty terrorist attacks in Europe and the United States. During the second court hearing in his case, the prosecution argued that al-Saadi had been a leading figure in an organization known as Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiyah, which claimed responsibility for these attacks, but in reality served as a front organization for Kata’ib Hezbollah in Europe and the United States (US Department of Justice, May 28, 2026).^[3] In this context, it was reported that the significance of al-Saadi’s trial lies in exposing the connections between the Iranian IRGC and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq to cells operating in Europe and the United States, as well as uncovering new information on the expansion of Kata’ib Hezbollah’s activities beyond the borders of the Middle East (The New York Times, June 1, 2026).

Elimination of a senior pro-Iranian militia figure

• Ansar Allah al-Awfiya announced that senior militia figure Adi Mohsen Jabbar al-Khalafi was killed in an IED attack targeting the vehicle in which he was traveling. According to the militia, Israel and the United States are behind the assassination, which was conducted by “cheap Iraqi hands” acting on their behalf. The militia called on the Iraqi government and state institutions to open an immediate investigation to uncover the circumstances of the killing and those behind it (Telegram channel of Ansar Allah al-Awfiya, May 28, 2026).

^[1] The weekly study includes the activities of Iran, the Shiite militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen.
^[2] For further information, see the Amit Institute’s study from May 18, 2026, “Elimination of Izz al-Din al-Haddad, Head of Hamas’ Military Wing: Reactions and Significance”; and the Amit Institute’s study from May 28, 2026, “Muhammad Odeh, New Head of the Hamas Military-Terrorist Wing, Eliminated in the Gaza Strip.”
^[3] For further information, see the Amit Institute’s study from March 18, 2026, “The Iran-Israel War: Possible Iranian-Orchestrated Attacks on Israeli and Jewish Targets”

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