Overview
- On March 18, 2018, an Israeli civilian was killed in a stabbing attack in the Old City of Jerusalem. It was the eighth significant terrorist attack during the first two and a half months of 2018.[1] Four of the eight attacks resulted in the deaths of Israeli civilians and soldiers. The high degree of lethality of popular terrorism attacks (what Mahmoud Abbas refers to as ” the peaceful popular resistance”) continues the trend of popular terrorism attacks carried out in 2017. In 2017 there was a sharp decline (about 42%) in the scope of popular terrorism attacks compared with 2016 but there was no decline in the number of Israelis killed in the attacks: 18 in 2017 and 17 in 2016.
What makes popular terrorism attacks in 2017 and the beginning of 2018 more lethal? In ITIC assessment it is primarily a result of an increase in the operational capabilities of the lone wolf terrorists and the terrorist networks carrying out the attacks. Those who have carried out the attacks have sometimes abandoned the element of spontaneity that characterized the wave of popular terrorism in its first year. The age of some of the terrorists carrying out lethal attacks seems to be higher than in the past. Apparently one aspect of the increasing operational capabilities is the surveillance of the Israeli security forces’ routine activities on the ground, carried out to expose their weak spots, especially in order to carry out vehicular and stabbing attacks, which are the most lethal. Another aspect of the improving of the terrorists capabilities is the success some of them have had in fleeing the scene of the attack and hiding from the Israeli security forces for a number of weeks.[2]
Lethal terrorist attacks, January 1 to March 19, 2018
- On March 18, 2018, an Israeli civilian was mortally stabbed and died in the hospital. The attack was carried out on Hagai Street in the Old City of Jerusalem. The stabber was a 28 year-old Palestinian from the village of Aqraba, southeast of Nablus. He had a permit to enter Jerusalem to look for work.
Adiel Kolman, killed on Hagai Street in the Old City of Jerusalem
(Facebook page of 0404, March 18, 2018).
During the first two and a half months of 2018 eight significant attacks have been carried out. Four of them were lethal (i.e., ended in the death of an Israeli or Israelis). Five Israelis were killed in the attacks (three civilians and two soldiers). Two attacks were stabbing attacks, one was a vehicular attack and one was a shooting attack, as follows:
Lethal Terrorist Attacks, 2018
- The high degree of lethality of the popular terrorism attacks carried out at the beginning of 2018 continues the trend begun in 2017.[3] While there was a sharp decrease (about 42%) in the number of terrorist attacks in 2017 compared with 2016 , there was no decrease in the number of Israelis killed, which remained similar to those of 2016 (18 killed in 2017, 17 in 2016[4]).
- Another aspect is that three of the lethal terrorist attacks of the first two and a half months of 2018 were carried out in the Nablus-northern Samaria region. The fourth lethal attack in the Old City of Jerusalem was carried out by a terrorist from the village of Aqraba, southeast of Nablus.That is in contrast to 2017, when the Jerusalem, Ramallah and Hebron regions were the leading regions for popular terrorism attacks. The appearance of the Nablus region as a hub of terrorist attacks in 2018 is new (although it is also possible that eventually the statistics will even out and show that in 2018 the Jerusalem, Ramallah and Hebron region played a central role in popular terrorism).
Distribution of Israelis killed in popular terrorism attacks according to type of attack, 2017
Note: Vehicular attacks were the most lethal, followed by shooting attacks and stabbing attacks. A vehicular attack in Samaria which killed two IDF soldiers was the most lethal attack of 2018.
Distribution of significant terrorist attacks carried out during the past year
Note: During the first two and a half months of 2018 there has been an increase in the number of significant attacks (although their number has still not reached the scope of March to July 2017).
Appendix
Victims of popular terrorism, 2018[5]
Right: Adiel Kolman, killed in a stabbing attack in the Old City of Jerusalem on March 18, 2018 (Facebook page of 0404, March 18, 2018). Left: Rabbi Raziel Shevah, killed in a shooting attack at the Havat Gilad Junction on January 9, 2018 (Red Magen David website, January 9, 2018).
Rabbi Itamar Ben-Gal, killed in a stabbing attack at the Ariel Junction on February 5, 2018 (Israeli prime minister’s website, February 5, 2018).
Sergeant Netanel Kahalani (right) and Captain Ziv Daos (left), two IDF soldiers killed in a vehicular attack on Route 585 between the communities of Mevo Dotan and Hermesh on March 16, 2018 (Facebook page of Shai Mashiah, a close friend of Netanel Kahalani, March 17, 2018; Instagram account of Ziv Daos, June 23, 2017).
[1] The ITIC defines "significant attacks" as shooting, stabbing, vehicular and combined attacks, and the detonation of IEDs. ↑
[2] Abd al-Hakim 'Asi, the terrorist who carried out the stabbing attack in Ariel (February 5, 2018) was detained on March 18, 2018, in Nablus, after intensive security forces' activities and intelligence efforts. Ahmed Nasr Jarar, one of the terrorists who carries out the shooting attack at the Havat Gilad Junction (January 9, 2018) was killed by the Israeli security forces in the village of Yamoun in northern Samaria on February 6, 2018, in a joint Israeli security force activity what required an intensive intelligence effort. ↑
[3] For further information, see the February 19, 2018 bulletin, "Palestinian Terrorism: Analysis of 2017 and Forecast for 2018." ↑
[4] A total of 66 Israelis, civilians and military personnel, have been killed since the beginning of the wave of popular terrorism began, from October 2015 to March 2018. ↑
[5] Updated to March 19, 2018. ↑
