Overall Public Positions
Overview
- On December 13, 2022, Dr. Khalil Shqaqi’s Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR)[1] issued its public opinion-poll report for the last quarter of the year. According to the results, the Palestinian public’s support for an “armed struggle” against Israel, a return an armed intifada,[2] “armed attacks” inside against Israeli civilians inside Israel and support for “armed groups” in the Palestinian Authority (PA), increased in comparison to the third quarter, especially in Judea and Samaria. There was also overwhelming support (72%) for “armed groups” [such as the Lion’s Den terrorist network], but more than half said they were concerned that it would lead to clashes between the groups and the PA’s security services. There was a particularly significant increase in support for terrorist attacks inside Israel, and the findings apparently indicate a trend within the Palestinian public towards extremism, especially in Judea and Samaria.
- A number of possible reasons were given for the results, among them the formation of the new right-wing government in Israel, the escalating military clashes between Palestinian “armed groups” and the IDF in Samaria, especially after the event of March 2022, and the “unprecedented number” of Palestinian casualties in clashes with Israeli security forces.
- In ITIC assessment, to a significant degree senior figures in the PA and terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip have also contributed to increasing extremism. Figures in the PA, led by Muhammad Shtayyeh and Prime Minister Muhammad Shtayyeh, encourage violence and reward both Palestinian terrorists who carry out attacks and their families.[3] They also promote international dialogues and activities to delegitimize Israel, call for boycotts, and repeatedly and publicly claim that today there is no partner for peace in Israel.[4] Their efforts increased this past year as a result of the IDF’s intensive counterterrorism activities, especially in northern Samaria (Operation Breaking Dawn), and have increased even more since the elections in Israel and the formation of a new government with Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister. In the Gaza Strip, the terrorist organizations, primarily Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, continue efforts to foment unrest in Judea and Samaria and encourage Palestinians to clash with the Israeli security forces and carry out terrorist attacks, while abstaining from terrorist attacks on Israel’s southern border.
- Comparing the positions revealed in the quarterly polls conducted in 2022, it can be seen that despite the rise in extremism revealed in the fourth quarter, during the year there was no significant change in positions. However, when positions in the Gaza Strip are compared with those in Judea and Samaria, it becomes clear that in Judea and Samaria public support for violence and attacks inside Israeli territory increased. However, the percentage of supporters of violence in the Gaza Strip is higher than in Judea and Samaria, despite most of the clashes’ having occurred in Judea and Samaria during the past year, where friction between local residents and Israeli security forces was higher.
- The ITIC examined the results of the polls conducted in 2022 for responses to the following:
- Return to violence and an armed intifada against Israel.
- The “armed struggle” as the Palestinians’ best option for ending the “occupation” and establishing an independent state.
- Support for lone wolf terrorist attacks inside Israeli territory.
- Also examined were positions on issues asked about only once during the year, for which changes could obviously not be observed, such as the objection of the PA security services to the entrance of IDF forces into Judea and Samaria (poll of March 2022), supported by 64%; attitudes towards attacks carried out by lone wolf terrorists who did not belong to any organization (June 2022), supported by 56%; and the formation of “armed groups” such as the Lion’s Den,[5] which do not take orders from the PA and are not part of its security services (December 2022), supported by 72%.
Poll Findings
Comparison between the polls conducted in 2022
- The PCPSR conducts quarterly polls, this past year between March 16 and 20, June 22 and 25, September 13 and 17 and December 7 and 10. The total size of the sample is about 1200 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly selected locations in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip; margin of error is +/-3%. Some of the questions are repeated from poll to poll and some refer to events which occurred during the particular quarter.
- Below are the findings of the ITIC’s examination of the poll results regarding the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the “armed conflict” [i.e., terrorist attacks] during 2022.
Return to armed clashes and another intifada against Israel
- The results indicate that during the past year there was no significant shift in Palestinian public opinion regarding armed clashes and another intifada. In March support stood at 51%, in June 55%, in September 48% and in December 55%. Support was greater in the Gaza Strip, 60%, than in Judea and Samaria, 40%. However, the fourth quarter poll saw a significant rise in support in Judea and Samaria, 51%.
Overall Public Positions
Judea and Samaria vs. the Gaza Strip
The “armed struggle” as the most appropriate way to achieve the Palestinian goals of ending the “occupation” and establishing an independent state
- The results of the December poll indicate a rise in support among the general Palestinian public for an “armed struggle,” 51%, up from 41% in September. However, in June support was 50%, thus over the year the average rise was not significant. However, in Judea and Samaria support rose from 35% to 50%.
Overall Public Positions
Judea and Samaria vs. the Gaza Strip
Support for terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israeli territory
- The results of the December poll indicate a rise in support within the general Palestinian public for “armed attacks” inside Israeli territory, 50%, up from 45% in September. In Judea and Samaria, however, support was 46%, up from 34% in September, and in the Gaza Strip it was 57%, down from 62% in September.
Overall Public Positions
Judea and Samaria vs. the Gaza Strip
Questions Asked Only on One Occasion
December 2022 poll
- Results of questions regarding armed terrorist networks like the Lion’s Den also indicated an increase towards support for extremism. Findings indicated that 72% of the general population support the formation of such networks: 65% in Judea and Samaria and 84% in the Gaza Strip. Regarding the surrender of the members of “armed groups” or their arms to the PA, 79% were opposed, 78% in Judea and Samaria and 82% in the Gaza Strip. Regarding the right of the PA to arrest the operatives of the “armed groups,” 87% said the PA did not have the right. More than half expressed concern that the formation of such groups would lead to clashes between them and the Palestinian security services, and 59% said they expected the “armed groups” to spread to other areas [beyond Jenin and Nablus] of Judea and Samaria.
June 2022 poll
- Respondents were asked if they supported or opposed [terrorist] attacks carried out by lone wolf Palestinians who did not belong to any movement or known organization, and 56% replied they supported such attacks, 44% in Judea and Samaria and 73% in the Gaza Strip.
March 2022 poll
- Respondents were asked if they agreed or disagreed with the statement that the Palestinian security services should use weapons against the Israeli security forces when they entered the Palestinian territories. Support was given by 64.5%, 65% in Judea and Samaria and 64% in the Gaza Strip.
[1] The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) was founded in 2000, and describes itself as a non-profitable NGO. Its head office is in Ramallah, and its director is Dr. Khalil Shqaqi. Considered a leading Palestinian Authority research facility, it holds quarterly public opinion polls, posting the results on its website. Participants are Palestinians in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip, and the polls cover a variety of topics related to the Palestinian arena, among them politics, the economy, the media, attitudes towards Israel and armed terrorist attacks. ↑
[2] An organized uprising or insurrection. Generally speaking, sustained violence and terrorist attacks targeting both IDF forces and Israeli civilians. ↑
[3] For further information see the November 13, 2022 bulletin, "The Palestinian Authority and Fatah have adopted a policy of full solidarity with Palestinians killed while carrying out terrorist attacks against Israel or in confrontations with Israeli security forces." ↑
[4] For further information see the January 2, 2023 bulletin, "A Palestinian 'victory' in the international arena: the UN votes to ask the International Court of Justice for a legal opinion regarding Israel's practices in the territories." ↑
[5] The reference is to armed terrorist networks established during 2022 which clash with Israeli security forces and carry out terrorist attacks, such the Lion's Den, the Jenin Battalion and the Nablus Battalion. ↑
