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Challenges Faced by Hezbolla after the November 27, 2024 ceasfire

The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement of November 27, 2024, which ended the fighting that began on October 8, 2023, placed Hezbollah at a crossroads, the most significant since the organization's founding in 1982. Its situation was the result of the loss of its top leadership, primarily secretary general Hassan Nasrallah and his designated successor Hashem Safi al-Din, as well as commanders and thousands of operatives. In addition, key military-terrorist capabilities and infrastructure were destroyed and the organization's status inside Lebanon was damaged. Read more...

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (May 12 – 19, 2025)

IDF forces continued operations targeting Hezbollah’s presence in south Lebanon, which is in violation of the ceasefire, preventing the organization from rebuilding its military capabilities. The forces eliminated Hezbollah terrorist field commanders and operatives in south Lebanon; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem called on Lebanese state institutions to increase pressure on Israel against its "ongoing aggression and violations." He also admitted that Iran had served the "resistance” and that they had benefited from it in every respect; Lebanese leaders claimed that American-led international pressure should compel Israel to withdraw from south Lebanon and halt its attacks in the country. Lebanese President Aoun said Hezbollah had to understand it had no choice but to accept the concept of the state's monopoly on weapons, but added that it had to be achieved through dialogue and not hastily, to avoid confrontation; The United States is reportedly pressuring the Lebanese government to shut down Hezbollah’s financial arm; An indictment was filed against a person affiliated with Hezbollah accused of collaborating with Israel by providing information enabling Israel to target senior Hezbollah terrorists during and after the war; Lebanon is preparing for a visit by Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas, who is expected to discuss the disarmament of armed Palestinian "factions" in the refugee camps. President Aoun questioned whether Palestinian arms were truly meant "to liberate Palestine" or to kill Palestinians and Lebanese. Read more...

Disarming the Palestinian Factions in Lebanon

The Palestinian factions in Lebanon have maintained an armed presence in the refugee camps for decades without interference from the authorities. In recent years, the Hamas branch in Lebanon has become the most powerful military force among the factions, and its active involvement in fighting alongside Hezbollah in the latest conflict drew significant public and political attention; The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon in November 2024, which ended the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, led the Lebanese authorities to declare their willingness to institute a state monopoly of weapons throughout the country. The declaration was reinforced under the new president, Joseph Aoun, and the new government headed by Nawaf Salam; The rocket fire attacking northern Israel at the end of March 2025 and the exposure of Hamas operatives as responsible led the authorities to warn the movement not to threaten national security. Following the warning, in an unprecedented move Hamas handed the Lebanese army suspects involved in the rocket fire; At this stage, it is unclear whether Lebanese security forces intend to act militarily to collect the weapons in the country’s Palestinian refugee camps or to simply reorganize relations and increase coordination over weapons use. In ITIC assessment, a successful assertion of state authority over the Palestinian factions could set a precedent for a similar move against Hezbollah, which is considered a more complex and sensitive challenge for Lebanon. As a result, Hezbollah may attempt to prevent a forceful move by the Lebanese army against the Palestinian factions but may also assist in resolving the issue through dialogue. Read more...

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (March 31 – April 8, 2025)

IDF forces continued operations against Hezbollah's efforts to rebuild its military-terrorist capabilities and against the organization's presence in south Lebanon in violation of the ceasefire agreement, eliminating field commanders and operatives. A Hezbollah operative and a member of the Iranian Qods Force who assisted Hamas in planning an attack against Israelis were eliminated in an attack in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia in Beirut and a senior Hamas commander was eliminated in an attack in Sidon; Hezbollah demanded that Lebanese state institutions take action against the "Israeli violations" and warned that the "resistance" was ready to use all its means available. Lebanese government officials condemned Israel and accused it of violating the ceasefire and UN Security Council Resolution 1701; Senior Lebanese officials met with Morgan Ortagus, the United States deputy special envoy to the Middle East and discussed implementing the ceasefire, disarming Hezbollah and economic reforms. Ortagus said Lebanon had to act with the United States to disarm Hezbollah and end corruption, warning Lebanon it was the country's "last opportunity."; The Lebanese minister of transportation confirmed that attempts to smuggle funds to Hezbollah through Beirut International Airport had been foiled and there was no date for resuming flights from Iran. The security clearances of Hezbollah supporters working at the airport were reportedly revoked. Hezbollah has reportedly begun smuggling weapons by sea to the Port of Beirut. Read more...

Iran in the Face of Regional Developments: Challenges, Responses and Possible Courses of Action

The dramatic developments in the Middle East in recent months, mainly Israel’s military achievements vis-à-vis Hamas and Hezbollah and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, have significantly weakened Iran and the “resistance front” that it leads and pose significant challenges to it, first and foremost the damage to Tehran’s ability to influence the region. These challenges join a series of other challenges facing the Islamic Republic, mainly the deepening of the economic crisis, the consequences of the Israeli attack at the end of October 2024, and the return of Donald Trump to the White House; In light of the recent regional developments, Iran is trying to downplay the seriousness of the situation, emphasizing its capabilities and the capabilities of the “resistance front” to overcome the challenges and continue to act in light of the new circumstances, thanks in part to the ability of Iran’s regional proxies to produce weapons themselves, Highlighting Israel’s failure to realize its goals in the war, both in the Gaza Strip and in Lebanon, and presenting the ceasefire in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip as a victory for the “resistance front” and a strategic failure for Israel, Emphasizing Iran’s continued support for the “resistance,” as it is a central pillar of the Islamic Republic’s policy; In the ITIC’s assessment, Iran has no intention of backing down from its efforts to maintain its regional status and continue its support for the “resistance front.” At the same time, it appears that Iran will examine how to make the necessary adjustments and find possible solutions to the limitations and constraints it faces in the main arenas in which it operates. Read more...

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah Lebanon (January 13 – 25 , 2025)

The IDF continued to thwart Hezbollah's attempts to violate the ceasefire. IDF forces located and destroyed weapons and terrorist facilities in south Lebanon, some near UNIFIL bases and in residential buildings. Lebanese army forces continued to deploy in the villages evacuated by the IDF in the western and central sectors of south Lebanon; Na'im Qassem, Hezbollah secretary general, warned Israel not to try the organization's patience with "violations." A Hezbollah member of the Lebanese Parliament threatened that if Israel did not withdraw by January 26, 2025, the ceasefire agreement would collapse and the Lebanese would have to "confront the enemy"; French President Macron and UN secretary general Guterres visited Beirut and met with senior Lebanese officials. They called for the completion of Israel's withdrawal from south Lebanon and expressed their commitment to the success of the ceasefire, strengthening the Lebanese army and rebuilding Lebanon; Senior Hezbollah officials rejected claims that the organization had been weakened and stated that the "resistance" remained strong and was cooperating with state institutions. Alleged information about the planned burial site for Hassan Nasrallah was posted to social media; Lebanese President Aoun gave Nawaf Salam, president of the International Court of Justice in The Hague, the mission of forming a new government. Hezbollah representatives announced they did not support Salam's appointment; however, according to reports, progress has been made in discussions regarding integrating Hezbollah into the government. Read more...