Fourth round of escalation between Israel and Hamas, which ended with Hamas’ announcement agreeing to end the fighting

Overview

On Friday, July 20, 2018, during a “return march” at the Israeli-southern Gaza border, snipers shot at at an IDF patrol, killing a soldier.^[1] The incident, which was designated by the IDF as the most serious since the end of Operation Protective Edge, led to an exchange of fire in which three Hamas terrorist operatives were killed. Immediately thereafter Israeli Air Force aircraft initiated a broad aerial attack in the Gaza Strip (hitting more than 60 targets of Hamas’ military infrastructure and its command and control system). During the attack three mortar shells were fired at Israel from the Gaza Strip. Two were intercepted by the Iron Dome aerial defense system.

• Following the IDF’s massive attack, contacts were held between Hamas and Egypt and Nikolay Mladenov (the UN envoy to the Middle East), leading to a Hamas agreement to a ceasefire. At 01:00, Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum announced a lull had been achieved between Israel and the Palestinian [terrorist] organizations. The following day, Saturday, July 21, 2018, the IDF Home Front Command announced that the residents of the communities near the Gaza Strip could return to routine daily life.
• Generally speaking, Saturday was relatively quiet, with the exception of two incidents: on the morning of July 21, 2018, a number of Gazans crossed the security fence and entered Israeli territory. In response an IDF tank shot at a Hamas post in the northern Gaza Strip. The Gazans retreated to the Gaza Strip (IDF spokesperson, July 21, 2018). In addition, during the day a fire broke out in the community of Nahal Oz, set by an incendiary balloon (however, on Saturday there was a significant decrease in the number of incendiary kites and balloons launched).
• The round of escalation, the fourth significant one in recent months, was different from previous rounds. The death of an IDF soldier, the first since Operation Protective Edge, led to an exchange of fire. In the exchange three Hamas terrorist operatives were killed. That triggered a massive aerial attack against Hamas military targets. However, despite the IDF’s massive attacks, and despite the two previous rounds, Hamas and the other terrorist organizations remained restrained and refrained from massive attacks of rocket and mortar shell fire at Israel (with the exception of the three mortar shells at the beginning of the events). The lull was also different from the previous lull, as it went into effect immediately, without the usual continuing sporadic fire from the Gaza Strip.

Rocket and mortar shell fire during rounds of escalation since Hamas determined its “new equation of response”

• What caused the change in Hamas’ behavior in the last round? In ITIC assessment, it may have been that signals sent by Israel, along with pressure from Egypt (which in all probability leveraged Israel’s signals), made it clear to Hamas that it was risking a comprehensive military confrontation. In ITIC assessment Hamas does not want such a confrontation, although it takes into account that one may result from new rounds of escalation. Rounds of escalation are liable to continue as long as Hamas continues implementing its policy of controlled violence: mass riots and demonstrations at the border fence, acts of sabotage at the fence, attempts to penetrate into Israeli territory, violent attacks on IDF soldiers near the fence and arson terrorism.

Thus Hamas is pursuing a policy of brinksmanship in which it is prepared for occasional, fragile lulls, and even temporarily turning down the level of violence. However, at this stage it is not prepared to abandon its policy of controlled violence and return to the status quo ante (the lull in the fighting between the end of Operation Protective Edge in July 2014 and March 30, 2018). That was because of the fundamental problems that led Hamas to change its policy,^[2] the most pressing of which is the difficult economic situation in the Gaza Strip, remain unchanged. In ITIC assessment, without significant achievements Hamas can boast about to the Gazans, it will be difficult to make fundamental changes to its policy, put an end to acts of violence and restore the lull of the previous three and a half years.

The Events

Thursday, July 19, 2018

• The events that led to the current round of escalation began on Thursday, July 19, 2018, when the IDF shot at a squad launching incendiary balloons near a Hamas observation post east of Rafah (southern Gaza Strip). The IDF fire killed Abd al-Karim Isma’il Radwan, an operative in Hamas’ military wing (Hamas military wing website, July 19, 2018). Three other Gazans were wounded (Facebook page of the Hamas-controlled ministry of health in the Gaza Strip, July 19, 2018).

 

• Hamas’ military wing called the Israeli attack “a vile crime and an act of stupidity.” Hamas blamed Israel, which, according to the announcement, would pay with blood for the blood of the dead operative (in accordance with Hamas’ policy) (Hamas military wing website, July 19, 2018).

   
The threat issued by Hamas’ military wing in Hebrew (left): “The enemy will pay with his blood, an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth” (Twitter account of Hamas’ military wing, July 20, 2018).

• The funeral held for Abd al-Karim Isma’il Radwan was attended by senior Hamas figures, among them Isma’il Haniyeh, head of Hamas’ political bureau, and Khalil al-Haya, deputy chairman of Hamas’ political bureau in the Gaza Strip. Khalil al-Haya said the “resistance” [i.e., the terrorist organizations] would continue to aim their weapons, continue the “marches” and continue to use all the means at their disposal to achieve their goals: the [so-called] return [of the Palestinian refugees to Israeli territory], stamping out the [Israeli] occupation, and breaking the siege. He also said that Israel, “the enemy that is afraid of balloons, burning tires and kites, is weaker than the threads of a spider’s web”^[3] (Hamas website, July 20, 2018).

Friday, July 20 2018

• On Friday, July 20, 2018, under cover of the “return march,” snipers in the southern Gaza Strip shot at an IDF patrol, killing an IDF soldier. The attack was carried out when Isma’il Haniyeh, head of Hamas’ political bureau was at a nearby “return march” (Shehab, July 20, 2018). The incident, designated by the IDF the most serious since the end of Operation Protective Edge, led to exchanges of fire which resulted in the deaths of three Hamas terrorist operatives. Hamas’ military wing announced the deaths of Muhammad Riyadh Abu Farhana, 23, from Khan Yunis; Sha’aban Rajab Abu Khater, 26, from Khan Yunis; and Mahmoud Khalil Qishta, 23 from Rafah, killed by Israel fire at observation points of the “resistance” in eastern Rafah and Khan Yunis (Hamas military wing website, July 20 2018).

 

• Following the incident, Israeli Air Force aircraft carried out extensive attacks in the Gaza Strip. During the attacks three mortar shells were fired at Israel. Two were intercepted by the Iron Dome aerial defense system. The Palestinian media reported that after the massive aerial attack, and after senior Egyptian officials and Nikolay Mladenov, the UN envoy to the Middle East, exerted heavy pressure on Hamas and demanded it not respond to the Israel attacks. The Palestinians agreed to a calm beginning at midnight (Shehab, July 20, 2018). At 01:00 hours Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum issued a short statement to the effect that a lull in the fighting between Israel and the Palestinian organizations had been achieved (Dunia al-Watan, July 21, 2018). The Israeli media reported that a senior Israeli source said Hamas agreed to put an end to arson terrorism. The ITIC cannot verify the report.

Saturday, July 21, 2018.

• The following day, Saturday, July 21, 2018, the Home Front Command announced that the residents of the Israeli communities near the Gaza Strip could return to routine daily life. During the day the area was relatively quiet, with the exception of a single incident in the morning when a number of Palestinians crossed the security fence and tried to penetrate into Israeli territory. An IDF tank attacked a Hamas post in the northern Gaza Strip in response. The Palestinians retreated to the Gaza Strip (IDF spokesperson, July 21, 2018). In addition, during the day a fire broke out in the community of Nahal Oz, caused by an incendiary balloon.

Rocket and mortar shell fire during the rounds of escalation since Hamas instituted its “new equation of response”^[4]

Monthly distribution of rocket and mortar shell fire, 2018

 

Annual distribution of rocket and mortar shell fire

IDF Response

• In response to the killing of the soldier, regarded by the IDF as serious escalation, an ad hoc security meeting was held in IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv, attended by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, and IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot. Another meeting for security assessment was held later on, attended by senior IDF and defense officials. Following the meetings the IDF carried out extensive attacks on terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip targeting Hamas infrastructure and command systems.
• Israeli Air Force aircraft carried out more than 60 attacks, destroying three Hamas battalion headquarters: the headquarters of the Zeitun Battalion in the northern Gaza Strip, the headquarters of the al-Bureij Battalion in the central Gaza Strip and the headquarters of the Khan Yunis Battalion in the southern Gaza Strip. In addition, they destroyed workshops and lathes for the manufacture of weapons, an entrance shaft to a network of terrorist tunnels, a workshop for the manufacture of tunnel components, a drone storehouse, military operations rooms, training compounds, observation posts, etc. In IDF assessment, the attacks were a significant hit to Hamas command and control systems, as well as to its weapons, military influence, aerial defense capabilities and training and logistic systems (IDF spokesperson, July 20, 2018).
• The Palestinian media reported that the Israeli Air Force attacked the al-Rawdha post in the al-Zeitun neighborhood in eastern Gaza City; the al-Quds post in western Khan Yunis; and the Issa al-Batran post in the al-Bureij refugee camp (alresala.net, July 20, 2018; Khabar, July 20, 2018). The Palestinian media also reported that a number of civilians were wounded in the attack on the al-Rawdha post (website of al-Aqsa TV, July 20, 2018).

   
IDF attack on the al-Rawdha post in eastern Gaza City. (Right: Twitter account of journalist Hassan Aslih, Left:, Twitter account of Hamas’ military wing, July 20, 2018).

   
IDF attack on the Issa al-Batran post in the al-Bureij refugee camp (Facebook page of zajelpress, July 20, 2018).

Attacks on Hamas Posts in the Gaza Strip

(IDF spokesperson, July 20, 2018)

Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) Public Responses

• During the most recent round of escalation Hamas also preserved media restraint parallel to its military restraint. Unlike previous rounds, Hamas’ al-Aqsa broadcasts did not begin with live broadcasts of Israel’s attacks.
• After the announcement of the ceasefire, Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem said Israel had not honored its commitments regarding the previous lull in the fighting and continued its aggression against the Palestinian people. He claimed the “resistance” had implemented its right to defend the Palestinian people and responded to Israel’s aggression. He said the calm had been achieved through Egyptian and international efforts, after Israel had agreed to stop its aggression against the Gaza Strip. He also said that the “resistance” was prepared to respond every time Israel behaved aggressively towards the Palestinian people. As to the continuation of the use of incendiary kites, he claimed the “return marches” were “peaceful” and all their activities would continue (al-Manar, July 21, 2018). The Palestinians customarily refer to the violent activities of the “return marches” as “peaceful.”
• The PIJ issued an announcement after the IDF attacks saying that the objectives of [Israel’s] “aggression” had not been achieved because of the Palestinians’ firm, united stance. He added that the Palestinians emphasized their right to defend themselves and respond to “terrorist aggression.” He said the “terrorist Zionist leaders” should know that the Palestinians would not surrender to their policies or abandon their rights (website of the PIJ’s military wing, July 20, 2018).

^[1] The sniper fire was apparently a response to the killing of a Hamas military operative on Thursday, July 19, 2018. The operative was killed when the IDF shot at a squad launching incendiary balloons near a Hamas observation post in the southern Gaza Strip. Thus the launching of incendiary balloons was what initiated the fourth significant round of escalation. ↑
^[2] For further information, see the June 25, 2018 bulletin, "Hamas' new policy towards Israel: from restraint and calm to controlled violence, creating escalation." ↑
^[3] An expression first coined by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah after the IDF left the security zone in south Lebanon. ↑
^[4] For further information, see the June 25, 2018 bulletin, "Hamas' new policy towards Israel: from restraint and calm to controlled violence, creating escalation." ↑

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