Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah Lebanon (February 10 – 17, 2025)

Preparations are being made in Lebanon ahead of the February 18, 2025 deadline for the completion of the Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon. Hezbollah and senior Lebanese government officials expressed opposition to Israel’s intention to retain military forces at five strategic points on the Lebanese side of the border and demanded a full withdrawal; IDF forces continued operations against Hezbollah ceasefire violations, targeting Hezbollah weapons depots and operatives in south Lebanon and inside the country. A senior member of Hamas’s military wing responsible for orchestrating attacks in Judea and Samaria was eliminated; Hezbollah supporters rioted against Lebanese security forces near Beirut airport after the government prevented the arrival of an Iranian plane, having been informed that it was carrying funds for Hezbollah and could be targeted by Israel; Na'im Qassem, Hezbollah secretary general, claimed Nasrallah's funeral would be a show of strength; Nawaf Salam, Lebanon’s new prime minister, said only Lebanese security forces should bear arms. 
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Hamas Promotes a “Victory” Narrative for Gaza Strip War

The announcement of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, even before it went into effect on January 19, 2025, provided Hamas with an opportunity to start promoting a "victory" narrative over Israel in the aza Strip War, which they refer to as Operation al-Aqsa Flood, which began with the Hamas terrorist attack and massacre on October 7, 2023; Official statements from Hamas and its senior figures, amplified by the movement's official and affiliated media outlets, as well as during public "release ceremonies" for Israeli hostages, aimed to promote the narrative that Israel had failed to achieve its objectives against the "resistance" and the "steadfastness" of the Gazans; Hamas' media made extensive use of statements from Israeli political, military and media figures, which in their perspective reinforced the message of Israel's "failure" to achieve the war's objectives; In ITIC assessment, Hamas will continue highlighting Israel's failure to achieve its objectives and promoting the "victory" narrative as long as the ceasefire agreement is maintained, in order to soften public criticism in Gaza of the extensive devastation in the Strip. If the agreement transitions to the second phase, which is expected to include further Israeli withdrawals from Gaza and the release of more prisoners who committed particularly serious crimes, Hamas will intensify its "victory" propaganda to increase its power in Gaza and maintain its position in the Palestinian arena, even if it is forced to relinquish actual control over the Gaza Strip.
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Spotlight on Syria (After the Fall of the Assad Regime) February 5 – 12 , 2025

For several days the security forces of the new Syrian regime exchanged fire with Hezbollah-affiliated arms and drug smugglers near the border with Lebanon; Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said Trump's plan to evacuate residents of the Gaza Strip was a "serious crime" but said he hoped Trump would succeed in promoting peace in the Middle East; The Syrian army deployed its first divisions across the country. A new commander was appointed to the Syrian Air Force; The IDF attacked a Hamas weapons depot in southern Syria. Other Israeli raids were reported in villages in the Golan Heights outside the buffer zone.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (February 5 – 12, 2025)

Senior Iranian officials strongly condemned US President Trump’s proposal to transfer the residents of the Gaza Strip to other countries and called for decisive action by the international community, especially the countries of the region and the Islamic countries, against the plan.; A delegation of senior Hamas figures visited Tehran and met with senior officials of the Iranian regime, headed by Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Pezeshkian. The senior Iranian officials congratulated the Hamas delegation on the “victory” of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and stressed Iran’s support for the Palestinians and the “resistance"; Iran’s ambassador to Beirut stated that Iran intends to participate in the reconstruction of Lebanon in coordination with the new government in Beirut; According to an unconfirmed report, senior Iranian officials and senior officials of the former Syrian regime held a secret meeting in Iraq to formulate a plan to overthrow the new regime in Syria and assassinate President al-Shara; The Houthi leader threatened that if the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip collapsed, the Houthi forces would be ready to resume their attacks against Israel.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah Lebanon and (February 3 – 10, 2025)

IDF forces continued operations to counter Hezbollah violations of the ceasefire, especially the organization's attempts to smuggle weapons from Syria. The Lebanese army continued to deploy in the towns and villages evacuated by the IDF, including for the first time villages in the eastern sector of south Lebanon; Hezbollah called on the government to increase pressure to ensure the completion of the Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon by the target date of February 18, 2025; The American administration's envoy to Lebanon, Morgan Ortagus, met with senior government officials in Beirut and assured them that Israel would complete its withdrawal in accordance with the ceasefire agreement. Hezbollah condemned her remarks that the organization had been defeated and that its entry into the new government should be prevented; According to Hezbollah, Nasrallah’s funeral on February 23, 2025 will serve as a referendum proving the people's loyalty to the "resistance"; Prime minister-designate Nawaf Salam announced the formation of the new Lebanese government, which includes two ministers affiliated with Hezbollah; The Lebanese army reinforced its forces along the Lebanon-Syria border after clashes between the security forces of the new Syrian regime and clans affiliated with Hezbollah.
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Spotlight on Syria (Following the Toppling of the Syrian Regime) January 29 – February 5 , 2025

The Victory of the Revolution Conference convened in Damascus: Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani) was declared Syria's new president, the institutions of the previous regime were dismantled and 18 armed militias announced they would disband. Al-Sharaa said presidential elections would be held in four to five years; Syrian President al-Sharaa made his first visits to Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Meeting with the Turkish president, al-Sharaa said he wanted strong bilateral relations with Turkey, including in security; The Syrian minister of the interior announced the seizure of arms shipments intended to be smuggled into Lebanon; The commander of the Kurdish militia of the Syrian Democratic Forces stated they had not been involved in the decision to appoint al-Sharaa president. The Syrian defense minister warned force would be used if negotiations with the Kurds failed; For the first time, gunfire was directed at IDF forces in the buffer zone in the Golan Heights; no casualties were reported. The Syrian Popular Resistance claimed responsibility and threatened further attacks. Syrian President al-Sharaa said normalization with Israel would not be possible as long as it occupied the Golan Heights.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah Lebanon and (January 27 – February 3 , 2025)

Encouraged by Hezbollah, Lebanese residents escorted by Lebanese army forces continued attempts to return to villages in south Lebanon. Hezbollah congratulated the residents, calling their attempted return a "victory"; IDF forces took action against Hezbollah's ceasefire violations and attacked vehicles and facilities, including in the Beqa'a Valley and near the Syrian border. Lebanese army forces continued gradually deploying into the areas vacated by the IDF. The army also reportedly took control of a strategic Hezbollah underground facility; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem stated the organization's opposition to extending the ceasefire until February 18, 2025. He revealed that Hezbollah was investigating the killings of the organization’s leaders to learn from them; Qassem said the funeral of former secretary general Hassan Nasrallah and his designated successor Hashem Safi al-Din would take place on February 23, 2025; According to reports, Israel complained that Iranian diplomats and Turkish citizens were transferring cash to Hezbollah on flights to Beirut. 
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (January 29 – February 5, 2025)

Senior Iranian officials have reiterated their emphasis on the “Palestinian victory” achieved following the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip; Iran and the militias loyal to it issued statements of mourning following Hamas’ announcement of the death of the head of its military wing, Mohammed al-Deif; The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman dismissed Israel’s claims that Iranian diplomats are transferring tens of millions of dollars to Hezbollah in suitcases via flights landing at Beirut airport; Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei authorized Hezbollah secretary-general Naim Qassem as his religious representative in Lebanon; The IRGC commander admitted that Iran’s enemies had achieved certain results in Syria but declared that the situation would not remain the same; Sources in the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq denied that talks were underway for a deal that would lead to the release of the kidnapped Israeli researcher, Elizabeth Tsurkov. 
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (January 28 – February 4 , 2025)

The ceasefire in the Gaza Strip continues: Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) released a female soldier and ten civilian hostages, five Israelis and five Thais, in exchange for 293 Palestinian prisoners, some of whom were serving life sentences; some were deported abroad. The Rafah Crossing was opened for the exit of patients and wounded; the return of displaced persons to northern Gaza continued; Hamas accused Israel of "humanitarian violations" of the ceasefire, claiming the movement was ready to begin negotiations on the second phase of the agreement. Hamas confirmed the deaths of Muhammad Deif, head of the military wing, his deputy and other senior terrorist operatives. The Palestinian Authority (PA) worked to recruit international aid for the Gaza Strip; Two IDF soldiers were shot to death in the Jordan Valley, the terrorist was killed. Israeli security forces continued a large-scale counterterrorism operation in northern Samaria, eliminating more than 50 terrorist operatives; Nine countries announced the establishment of a group to assist the Palestinians in legal warfare against Israel. The Palestinian Authority and Hamas welcomed the initiative.
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Spotlight on Syria (Following the Toppling of the Syrian Regime) January 22 – 29 , 2025

The new Syrian security forces continued searching the country for senior officials of the Assad regime and weapon stockpiles. The forces intercepted a truck carrying weapons en route to Hezbollah in Lebanon; Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammed al-Julani), de facto Syrian leader, held meetings in Damascus with visiting leaders and diplomats, including the Palestinian Authority prime minister and the Russian president's special envoy to the Middle East. The Syrian foreign minister welcomed the EU decision to gradually lift sanctions; Disagreements continue between Damascus and the leadership of Kurdish organizations regarding the integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces into the new Syrian army. The Syrian defense minister warned that the army would be prepared to use force if the issue were not resolved peacefully; IDF preparations for a prolonged presence on the Syrian Hermon and the buffer zone led Ahmed al-Sharaa to warn Israel that if it did not withdraw its forces, Syria would "apply pressure." Residents in the Quneitra area held demonstrations to protest the presence of Israeli forces and called for UN intervention. 
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Iran in the Face of Regional Developments: Challenges, Responses and Possible Courses of Action

The dramatic developments in the Middle East in recent months, mainly Israel’s military achievements vis-à-vis Hamas and Hezbollah and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, have significantly weakened Iran and the “resistance front” that it leads and pose significant challenges to it, first and foremost the damage to Tehran’s ability to influence the region. These challenges join a series of other challenges facing the Islamic Republic, mainly the deepening of the economic crisis, the consequences of the Israeli attack at the end of October 2024, and the return of Donald Trump to the White House; In light of the recent regional developments, Iran is trying to downplay the seriousness of the situation, emphasizing its capabilities and the capabilities of the “resistance front” to overcome the challenges and continue to act in light of the new circumstances, thanks in part to the ability of Iran’s regional proxies to produce weapons themselves, Highlighting Israel’s failure to realize its goals in the war, both in the Gaza Strip and in Lebanon, and presenting the ceasefire in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip as a victory for the “resistance front” and a strategic failure for Israel, Emphasizing Iran’s continued support for the “resistance,” as it is a central pillar of the Islamic Republic’s policy; In the ITIC’s assessment, Iran has no intention of backing down from its efforts to maintain its regional status and continue its support for the “resistance front.” At the same time, it appears that Iran will examine how to make the necessary adjustments and find possible solutions to the limitations and constraints it faces in the main arenas in which it operates.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (February 4 – 11 , 2025)

Hamas released three Israeli hostages in exchange for 183 Palestinian prisoners and IDF forces withdrew from the Netzarim Corridor. Hamas postponed the next scheduled hostage release on February 15, 2025, claiming Israel was not implementing the humanitarian clauses of the agreement and calling on mediators to pressure Israel; Hamas continued to demonstrate security and civilian governance, recruiting thousands of new operatives to its military wing and resuming tax collection; Fatah demanded that Hamas relinquish control of Gaza "the day after" in favor of a committee subordinate to the PA and the PLO. Hamas opposed the move, citing a lack of national consensus; A senior Hamas delegation visited Iran and met with regime officials to express gratitude for their support during the war; Israeli security forces continued the extensive counterterrorism operation in northern Samaria and expanded it to the Nur Shams refugee camp in Tulkarm; PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas cancelled legal provisions related to payments to the families of prisoners, shaheeds and the wounded. Hamas condemned the decision.
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The issue of emigration from the Gaza Strip in light of President Trump’s proposal

On January 25, 2025, after the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip went into effect, U.S, President Trump proposed the temporary or permanent relocation of all Gazans in light of the extensive destruction and to facilitate reconstruction. The proposal sparked condemnations from the Palestinians, Iran and Arab states, which accused it of being a "forced displacement" in violation of international law; The proposal reignited the issue of emigration from the Gaza Strip in general and of young people in particular, known even before the Gaza Strip War. Unofficial data indicated that approximately 300,000 young people had left the Strip since Hamas took control in 2007, primarily due to the economic situation and lack of hope for the future; The Hamas leadership sought to downplay emigration, calling any reference to it a Palestinian Authority smear campaign, but a document found by the IDF in Gaza written by the Khan Yunis Brigade of Hamas' military wing indicated concerns over the departure of young people, who constituted a significant part of the movement’s fighting force; In ITIC assessment, the Palestinians and Arab states will continue to present a united front against the plan in an attempt to eliminate it in its early stages. However, even if the plan is not implemented, the opening of the Rafah Crossing and others at the end of the war could lead to a significant wave of emigration from Gaza because of the widespread destruction and uncertainty about the future. Such a scenario would pose a significant challenge to Hamas, which would do everything in its power to prevent the emigration of young people, which could weaken its political and military stranglehold on the Gazan public.
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Wave of orchestrated ISIS terrorist retaliation attacks around the globe: overview and assessment

During four days, between April 8 and 11, 2019, the various ISIS provinces in Syria, Iraq and around the globe carried out a wave attacks in retaliation for the blow ISIS suffered in Syria. ISIS reported that eight of its provinces carried out more than 92 attacks in more than 80 areas. The attacks were accompanied by a media campaign and claims of responsibility entitled "Battle of vengeance for blessed [Province of] Sham" [Syria].
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Spotlight on Global Jihad (19-27 September 2017)

The Islamic State is disintegrating in Syria and Iraq. Its territorial areas of control Iraq are falling to the two anti-ISIS coalition forces one after another, although in some important strongholds ISIS operatives continue stubborn fighting.
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Expansion of Houthi Activities in the Red Sea

During the past two months the activities of the Houthis in Yemen have expanded. They have continued attacking targets they define as "Israeli" or "supporting Israel," mainly vessels sailing in the Red Sea on sea lanes passing through Israel, and have declared their intention to expand their attacks to the Indian Ocean and the sea route around the southern tip of Africa. Meanwhile, they have attacked American and British warships, as well as ships belonging to European Union countries which joined the campaign against the Houthi threat, all of which they claim help Israel and all of which attack Houthi forces in Yemeni territory.Three missiles were launched at Israel, one of which entered Israel's airspace and exploded in its territory, without damage or casualties, the first time for such an occurrence. Nevertheless, there has recently been a noticeable decline in the number of missiles and UAVs launched at Israeli territory compared to the beginning of the war. In ITIC assessment, the conflict in the Red Sea area will continue as long as the war in the Gaza Strip continues, and may escalate if the Houthis do in fact make good on their threat to attack ships in the Indian Ocean and thereby endanger the Asia's entire maritime trade with the West.
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ISIS spokesman releases an audiotape calling on the operatives to intensify their attacks, lashing out against Iran, Turkey and the leaders of the Arab states, and expressing support for the Palestinians but not for Hamas

ISIS Spokesman Abu Hamza al-Qurashi. The tape, which lasts about 38 minutes, is entitled “You are the sublime ones if you believe.” It mainly contains words of encouragement to ISIS’s fighters around the world, calls on them to intensify their activity and asks them to choose more substantial targets for their attacks (Telegram, June 22, 2021).
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah Lebanon (January 13 – 25 , 2025)

The IDF continued to thwart Hezbollah's attempts to violate the ceasefire. IDF forces located and destroyed weapons and terrorist facilities in south Lebanon, some near UNIFIL bases and in residential buildings. Lebanese army forces continued to deploy in the villages evacuated by the IDF in the western and central sectors of south Lebanon; Na'im Qassem, Hezbollah secretary general, warned Israel not to try the organization's patience with "violations." A Hezbollah member of the Lebanese Parliament threatened that if Israel did not withdraw by January 26, 2025, the ceasefire agreement would collapse and the Lebanese would have to "confront the enemy"; French President Macron and UN secretary general Guterres visited Beirut and met with senior Lebanese officials. They called for the completion of Israel's withdrawal from south Lebanon and expressed their commitment to the success of the ceasefire, strengthening the Lebanese army and rebuilding Lebanon; Senior Hezbollah officials rejected claims that the organization had been weakened and stated that the "resistance" remained strong and was cooperating with state institutions. Alleged information about the planned burial site for Hassan Nasrallah was posted to social media; Lebanese President Aoun gave Nawaf Salam, president of the International Court of Justice in The Hague, the mission of forming a new government. Hezbollah representatives announced they did not support Salam's appointment; however, according to reports, progress has been made in discussions regarding integrating Hezbollah into the government.
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Houthi-Israel-United States Escalation, December 2024

Since the beginning of December 2024, Yahya Saria, the Houthi military spokesperson, claimed responsibility for 21 UAV and ballistic missile attacks on Israel, six of which were carried out in cooperation with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. It was the highest monthly number of attacks since the beginning of the Gaza Strip War. Some of the missiles and UAVs caused significant damage in Israel; On December 19, 2024, in response to the increase in attacks, the Israeli Air Force conducted a third strike on Houthi targets in Yemen, targeting areas in Sanaa, the capital, for the first time. Among the targets attacked were power stations and fuel and oil tanks, with reports of nine fatalities; The Houthis also escalated attacks on American military and civilian vessels in the Red Sea while decreasing attacks against non-American vessels. The United States carried out airstrikes against command and control facilities and underground missile storage sites; The Houthi leader and senior officials announced that despite Israeli and American strikes, they would continue attacking Israel as part of their "support for the Palestinians," and would not stop until the war in the Gaza Strip ended; In ITIC assessment, the Houthis plan to intensify their attacks on Israel, including by introducing new weapons, to position themselves as the leading active front of the "resistance axis" in light of the ceasefire in Lebanon and the halt of attacks by pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. Although the Houthis connect the continuation of their attacks to the war in the Gaza Strip, they will most likely find other pretexts to continue their violent activities in order to maintain their external and internal standing. However, international cooperation led by the United States, combining economic and military pressure, including targeted strikes on the Houthis' military capabilities, could dampen their ability to maintain their activities over time.
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