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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (August 20-27, 2025)

Senior Iranian officials continued to threaten Israel against renewing the fighting with Iran; The secretary of the Supreme National Security Council rejected the claims that the “Resistance Front” is weakening and made it clear that Iran would continue its support for the “resistance” forces; The Iranian Supreme Leader said that Israel is “the most hated regime in the world” because of its “crimes” in the Gaza Strip. The Iranian foreign minister called for increased pressure on Israel over the continuation of the war in the Gaza Strip.; Senior Iranian officials reiterated their opposition to disarming Hezbollah and the Iraqi Shiite militias. The militias in Iraq made it clear to the government that they have no intention of giving up their weapons; The Houthis fired a missile with a cluster warhead at Israel for the first time. The IDF admitted that the interception attempts had failed. No casualties were reported. In response, the IDF attacked Houthi targets in Sana’a. The Houthis reported ten fatalities and made it clear that they would not stop the attacks “in support” of the Palestinians. Iran and the “Axis of Resistance” condemned the IDF attacks and praised the Houthis’ activity against Israel. 
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (August 18 – 25, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah facilities and eliminated terrorist operatives as part of the continued activity against Hezbollah's presence south Lebanon, which is in violation of the ceasefire understandings, and against the organization's efforts to rebuild its military capabilities and restore its arsenal. The forces attacked weapons depots and rocket and missile launchers in south Lebanon and eliminated three Hezbollah terrorist operatives; Hezbollah condemned the return of an Israeli citizen who had been held in Lebanon for a year and accused the government of irresponsibility and negligence; The American special envoy to Lebanon, Thomas Barrack, visited Israel in an effort to reduce IDF attacks in Lebanon. The Israeli prime minister's office stated that Israel was prepared to reduce its presence in south Lebanon if Lebanese security forces disarmed Hezbollah; An IDF-Lebanese army coordination mechanism has reportedly transferred hundreds of coordinates of Hezbollah targets since the ceasefire in November 2024, some based on reports from residents in south Lebanon; In preparation for the UN Security Council discussion on extending the UNIFIL mandate, Lebanese leaders emphasized the need for the UN force to remain. Parliament Speaker Berri wondered why the United States, as a guarantor of the ceasefire agreement, was trying to disrupt UNIFIL's activity; It was reported that the Lebanese army was about to finalize the plan to disarm Hezbollah and would present it to the Lebanese government on September 2, 2025. In an attempt to calm tensions following the government's decisions regarding its weapons monopoly, contacts were renewed between the office of the Lebanese president and Hezbollah representatives, who continued to insist the organization did not recognize the government's decisions and demanded they be rescinded. The Shi'ite mufti of Lebanon called Hezbollah's weapons "the weapons of God" and said no one could take them; Syrian security forces continue to prevent weapons from being smuggled from Syria into Lebanon for Hezbollah; The Palestinian Authority and Fatah in Lebanon announced that the transfer to the Lebanese army of a truck full of weapons in the Burj al-Barajneh refugee camp in Beirut symbolized the beginning of disarming the Palestinians in Lebanon, adding that transfers would continue in additional camps in the coming weeks. Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist organizations said they would not give up their weapons until the "end of the Zionist occupation."
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Spotlight on Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (August 13 – 19, 2025)

IDF forces continued extensive air and ground attacks in the Gaza Strip, eliminated terrorist operatives and destroyed weapons and terrorist facilities, including a seven-kilometer-long tunnel system in the northern Gaza Strip. The forces focused on the al-Zeitoun, al-Sabra, al-Shuja’iya and al-Tuffah neighborhoods in Gaza in preparation for an operation to take control of the city; Hamas and the Palestinian "factions" accepted the updated proposal of Egypt and Qatar, based on the Witkoff outline, for a 60-day ceasefire and the release of ten live hostages and the bodies of 18 dead hostages. The factions were reportedly dissatisfied with Hamas' handling of the negotiations and demanded that it act to end the war; Israel and the international community continued increasing the amount of humanitarian aid entering the Gaza Strip by land and air, including food and tents. The Gaza Humanitarian Fund began a pilot program which would allow families to pre-order aid packages. Nevertheless, Hamas continued to spread its "hunger" propaganda and again warned of the collapse of the health system; The Egyptian foreign minister announced that 5,000 Palestinian policemen were being trained and would be stationed in the Gaza Strip. Egypt also announced its intention to appoint a committee of 15 technocrats to manage the Strip for half a year, while in France efforts were being made to establish an international force to operate under a UN Security Council mandate. Hamas condemned the statements of the Palestinian Authority’s foreign minister who called for dismantling the weapons of the "resistance."; The UN secretary general’s report included Hamas in the list of organizations committing sexual violence; The Palestinians condemned Israeli minister Ben-Gvir’s visit to the prison cell of Marwan al-Barghouti and minister Smotrich’s decision to advance the E1 plan to create territorial contiguity between Ma’ale Adumim and Jerusalem.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (August 11 – 18, 2025)

The IDF attacked Hezbollah facilities above and below ground and eliminated operatives as part of its ongoing activity against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon which violates the ceasefire, and against the organization's efforts to rebuild its military capabilities and restore its arsenal; There were differences of opinion between the American administration and the European countries ahead of the discussion in the Security Council on extending the UNIFIL mandate in south Lebanon; American special envoy Thomas Barrack arrived in Beirut for talks, the first time since the government's decision to disarm Hezbollah. He said it was now Israel's turn to implement its own measure. Hezbollah's opponents reacted angrily to secretary general Na'im Qassem's statement that Hezbollah would not give up its weapons as long as "Israeli aggression" continued, adding that the "resistance" would battle the decision and would not agree to surrender; The secretary of Iran's supreme national security council, Ali Larijani, visited Lebanon and met with the heads of state and with Hezbollah's leadership. The president of Lebanon and the prime minister said they did not agree to Iranian intervention in the state's internal affairs; Mahmoud Abbas, chairman of the Palestinian Authority, instructed the new Palestinian ambassador in Lebanon to carry out the decisions regarding transferring Palestinian weapons and refugee camps to the authority of the Lebanese state.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (August 5 – 11, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah infrastructure and eliminated operatives of the organization as part of its continued activity against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon, in violation of the understandings of the ceasefire agreement, and against the organization's efforts to renew its military capabilities and restore its arsenal. Facilities in south Lebanon for storing engineering equipment for the restoration of capabilities were attacked and three Hezbollah operatives were eliminated, as was a senior terrorist operative from the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem reported that the organization had lost about 5,000 operatives in the campaign against Israel before the November 2024 ceasefire. In his assessment, Israel would not launch a new large-scale operation in Lebanon since the response would be missile fire into its territory; Six Lebanese army soldiers were killed in an explosion in a tunnel used for storing Hezbollah weapons near Tyre. A UNIFIL force uncovered a tunnel network with weapons in south Lebanon; The Lebanese government instructed the army to prepare a plan to disarm and dismantle all armed militias, including Hezbollah, by the end of the current year, and approved the principles of the document received from American special envoy Thomas Barrack. Hezbollah stated that it would ignore the government's decisions and warned that no one would be able to disarm the "resistance."; According to reports, Hezbollah's public health organization suspended hospitalization payments for the families of Hezbollah operatives, a consequence of its economic crisis
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Lebanese Government Decides to Disarm Hezbollah – Positions of Power Actors

On August 5, 2025, the Lebanese government instructed the army to prepare a plan to disarm all armed militias, including Hezbollah, by the end of the current year. Two days later, the government approved the principles submitted in a document by the American special envoy, Thomas Barrack, which included a timetable for disarmament. Ministers from Hezbollah and Amal left the meetings before they ended; The president of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, and the prime minister, Nawaf Salam, noted after the government meetings that the state would implement the state's monopoly on weapons and ensure its sovereignty over its territory, despite the complexity of the task; Hezbollah made it clear that it would ignore the government's decisions and warned that no one could disarm the "resistance." The organization stated that it was not willing to discuss its weapons before state authorities took action to end the "Israeli aggression." Hezbollah and Amal were reportedly considering toppling the government in a vote of no confidence in the Lebanese Parliament; Hezbollah supporters held rallies in its strongholds across the country, while articles in Hezbollah-affiliated media accused Aoun and Salam of acting in the service of the United States and Saudi Arabia; Hezbollah's political opponents welcomed the government's decision to disarm the organization, calling it a "final decision" with which Hezbollah had to comply. They stressed that the weapons in Hezbollah's hands had only damaged Lebanon; Senior Iranian officials expressed support for Hezbollah and dismissed the decision to disarm it. In response, the Lebanese foreign ministry condemned Iran's meddling in internal Lebanese affairs, and politicians called for the expulsion of the Iranian ambassador; In ITIC assessment, the Lebanese government will continue to exert pressure on Hezbollah and try to continue dialoguing with it so that it obeys the government's decision and disarms, while the Lebanese army will continue to work with UNIFIL to dismantle Hezbollah's infrastructure in south Lebanon. However, Hezbollah will find it difficult to cooperate due to the combination of the uncompromising "resistance" ideology against Israel, the expectation of reconstruction funds from Iran, and the fear that its opponents will exploit its disarming to attack the Shi'ite community in Lebanon. As a result, it becomes increasingly likely that internal clashes will begin, which could deteriorate into armed confrontations and harm politicians leading the pro-disarmament line.
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