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Reactions to the Wave of Recognition of a Palestinian State

About ten countries, including France, Britain, Canada and Australia, announced their recognition of a Palestinian state, bringing the number of countries recognizing "Palestine" to 159 of the 193 UN member states. The announcements came after the UN General Assembly adopted the "New York Declaration," which supports advancing the two-state solution as the basis for ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; The Palestinian Authority welcomed the recognition and called for practical steps which would enable the establishment of the state of "Palestine." Hamas said that the recognition was the result of the October 7, 2023 attack and the organization would continue with armed "resistance." However, Palestinian Internet users doubted that the wave of diplomatic recognition would end the war in the Gaza Strip or improve the humanitarian situation; In the United States, the countries that recognized a Palestinian state were condemned, while in Italy and Germany it was called a premature step which would not advance negotiations to end the war and resolve the conflict. According to the Arab world, recognition gave Palestinians hope for realizing their rights; In ITIC assessment, adopting the New York Declaration and the additional recognition of a Palestinian state are a cognitive achievement for the Palestinians after the Palestinian issue had been pushed to the sidelines in recent years, and strengthen Hamas' arguments about the "historical importance" of the October 7, 2023 terrorist attack and massacre. However, the actual establishment of a Palestinian state is still in the distant future because of Israel's control of territory and resources, the weakness of the Palestinian Authority and its support for terrorism, in addition to the security situation in the Gaza Strip and Hamas' continued terrorist activity. American opposition to the recognition of a Palestinian state and its ability to veto a Security Council resolution to establish a Palestinian state leave the current move at the declarative level.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (september 15 – 28, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah infrastructure and eliminated operatives of the organization as part of ongoing operations against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon, which violates the ceasefire agreement understandings, and against Hezbollah's efforts to increase its military capabilities and restore its arsenal. A precision missile production site and Radwan Force camps were, attacked and seven Hezbollah operatives were eliminated; The continued Israeli attacks, and especially the deaths of four uninvolved family members in Bint Jbeil, aroused anger in Lebanon: Hezbollah accused the Lebanese government of weakness, while leaders criticized the performance of the committee supervising the implementation of the ceasefire and that it was biased in Israel's favor; Hezbollah marked the anniversary of the pager attack and the killing of secretary general Hassan Nasrallah and his designated successor Hashem Safi al-Din, as well as other senior figures. Na'im Qassem, the current secretary general, reiterated the organization's refusal to disarm and claimed Hezbollah was prepared for "martyrdom."; Lebanese President Aoun used his visit to the UN General Assembly to call for pressure to be exerted on Israel to stop its attacks and withdraw from Lebanese territory while reiterating the commitment of the Lebanese authorities to Hezbollah's disarmament. Aoun reportedly instructed the army commander to ensure weapons were cleared from all the territory south of the Litani River; Senior Lebanese government officials met with senior Iranian officials who reiterated their promises not to interfere in Lebanon's internal affairs. The secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council denied that his country was sending weapons to Hezbollah.
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The Anniversary of Nasrallah’s Death and the Challenges facing Hezbollah

Hezbollah held formal ceremonies to mark the anniversary of the pager attack and the deaths of secretary general Hassan Nasrallah and his designated successor Hashem Safi al-Din, among others. The ceremonies exposed the challenges facing the organization, led by the demand it disarms, its status in Lebanon, continued Israeli attacks and economic and other internal difficulties; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem and others used the ceremonies as a platform to reiterate that the "resistance" would not disarm and threatened violence if disarmament were implemented by force. On the other hand, President Aoun and Prime Minister Salam reiterated their intention, with increasing American pressure, to achieve a state monopoly on weapons: Aoun was the more cautious of the two, fearing civil war; Hezbollah ignored the ban on projecting pictures of Nasrallah and Safi al-Din on the tourist site of the Raouche [Pigeon] Rock in Beirut, causing the tensions between the organization and Prime Minister Salam to resurface; Salam demanded the arrest of those responsible and threatened to resign; In ITIC assessment, the Lebanese state's inability to enforce its sovereignty over Hezbollah, despite the blows inflicted on the organization in the past two years, reflects the Lebanon's fundamental weakness and the difficulty of the international system to motivate the state's institutions to act. Hezbollah, on the other hand, maintains its military capabilities and has a wide enough circle of loyalists to allow it to challenge the decisions of the government of which it is a part and to use threats of force to achieve its goals. However, the continuing attempts to disarm Hezbollah and the continued Israeli enforcement of the ceasefire agreement may cause Hezbollah to use force in the domestic arena, or attempt to act against Israel as a "common Hezbollah and Lebanon enemy," despite its weakness and its restraint so far. 
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The Global Sumud (“Perseverance”) Flotilla to the Gaza Strip – Update (September 25, 2025)

The Global Sumud Flotilla, which was launched at the end of August 2025, continues its progress in the Mediterranean Sea with about 50 vessels and hundreds of activists with the aim of “breaking the siege on the Gaza Strip.”; The flotilla participants claimed that they had been subjected to a series of drone attacks and various attempts to disrupt the proper course of the voyage and prevent the vessels from reaching the Gaza Strip. As a result, Spain and Italy announced the dispatch of military ships to accompany the flotilla and assist in evacuation operations if necessary; Israel has made it clear that it will prevent the flotilla from entering the Gaza Strip due to the ongoing fighting. However, it has not claimed responsibility for the alleged attacks against the vessels. The Israeli proposal that the vessels dock in Ashkelon and that humanitarian aid be transferred to the Gaza Strip was rejected by the flotilla organizers; The organizers’ refusal to heed calls to halt the voyage to the Gaza Strip, together with the military escort provided to the flotilla’s vessels and Israel’s determination to prevent the ships from reaching their destination, are creating a complex situation that could lead to violent clashes in the coming days. In the ITIC's assessment, this development could play into the hands of the flotilla organizers and the Hamas movement, who view the flotilla as a propaganda tool intended to undermine Israel’s standing on the international stage.
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spotlight on Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (September 9-16, 2025)

On September 16, 2025, IDF forces launched a ground maneuver in Gaza City as part of Operation Gideon’s Chariots II, following airstrikes on hundreds of terrorist targets across the city. Despite threats and obstruction attempts by Hamas, at least 350,000 residents responded to the IDF’s calls and relocated to humanitarian areas in the southern Gaza Strip; Negotiations for the release of the hostages and a ceasefire have been frozen following an Israeli attempt to eliminate the Hamas leadership in Doha, Qatar. Hamas has made it clear that it will not give up its demands for an end to the war and a complete withdrawal of IDF forces from the Gaza Strip; Pro-Palestinian activists continued their flotilla in the Mediterranean Sea in an attempt to “break the siege” on the Gaza Strip; The PA’s security forces reportedly detained businessman Samir Halile, who claimed he is a candidate for the position of interim governor of the Gaza Strip; A Palestinian terrorist holding a blue ID card wounded two Israelis in a stabbing attack at a hotel in kibbutz Tzuba. Israeli security forces sealed the homes of the two perpetrators of the recent shooting attack in Jerusalem’s Ramot neighborhood, even before obtaining a demolition permit; The Palestinian Authority welcomed the UN General Assembly’s decision to adopt the New York Declaration, which calls for the implementation of the two-state solution.
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Israel Attacks the Hamas Leadership in Doha

September 9, 2025, Israel attacked a building in Doha, Qatar, where the Hamas negotiating team was thought to be holding a meeting, led by Khalil al-Hayya, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip. The results of the attack were inconclusive and it is still unclear who was harmed. Hamas reported that five of al-Hayya's close associates were killed, including his son and his chief of staff, but claimed there were no movement leadership casualties. However, so far no pictures have been released of some of the senior figures, including al-Hayya, and their condition is unknown; Hamas called the attack a "crime" and proof that Israel did not want to end the war or reach an agreement for the release of the hostages; Qatar called the attack "state terrorism" and threatened a harsh response, warning that it would reconsider its continued involvement as mediator in the negotiations for the release of the hostages and ending the war in the Gaza Strip. An Arab-Islamic emergency summit convened in Doha and condemned the attack, and called for a reexamination of relations with Israel without citing practical measures; The American president publicly criticized the attack, although he stressed the need to eliminate Hamas. Other Western countries also condemned Israel for violating Qatar's sovereignty; In ITIC assessment, in the short term, the attack shook the Qatari-Egyptian mediation channel and could delay the indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire and the release of the hostages. On the other hand, the added pressure on the Hamas leadership and its increased security might make them compromise on their demands. On the deterrent level, Israel demonstrated its ability and determination to act against senior Hamas figures even in places they considered "safe," thereby limiting their freedom of maneuver and forcing them to invest resources in securing their safety.
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