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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (July 9—16, 2025)

The representative of the Iranian Supreme Leader in the IRGC declared that the Iranian people would not rest until the complete destruction of the “Zionist regime.” The Iranian chief of staff reiterated his warning that in the event of another Israeli attack, Iran would respond even more harshly and decisively than in the past; Iran’s ambassador to Beirut met with a delegation of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party and emphasized Iran’s support for the campaign against Israel. The Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned Israel’s attacks in the Bekaa Valley and the silence of the UN Security Council; The Iranian media reported extensively on the contacts between Israel and Syria, and the violent clashes between Druze, Bedouins, and Syrian security forces in the south of the country. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman condemned the IDF’s activity in the region. The Iranian reactions to the developments in Syria can be seen as another expression of Iran’s efforts since the collapse of the Assad regime to highlight the instability in the country and the failures of the new regime to deal with the challenges it faces, both in the domestic arena and vis-à-vis Israel; The Houthis’ military spokesman claimed responsibility for three attacks against Israel using a ballistic missile and drones. The IDF Spokesperson confirmed the interception of a ballistic missile and a drone launched from Yemen; The Houthis claimed responsibility for sinking a cargo ship in the Red Sea, claiming that it violated the “sailing ban” to Israel, and confirmed that some of the crew members were being held by them. The Houthis threatened to continue their attacks against vessels trying to reach Israel until the “blockade” over the Gaza Strip is lifted. 
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Spotlight on Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (July 8-15 ,2025)

IDF forces continued extensive aerial and ground attacks on Hamas and other terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip. Terrorist operatives were eliminated, including the former Hamas justice minister, battalion commanders and a Hamas operative who had held an Israeli hostage. Five IDF soldiers were killed during the fighting. The Hamas military wing admitted that it was planning to abduct soldiers; Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas continued in an effort to reach a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and secure the release of the hostages. The disagreements centered on the scope of the Israeli withdrawal and the distribution of humanitarian aid, while Hamas continued to blame Israel for the stalemate; The humanitarian aid fund announced the successful completion of a pilot program to distribute food directly to needy Gazans. Yasser Abu Shabab, head of a militia supported by Israel, announced the establishment of a body to coordinate aid efforts and ease civilian life; Senior Palestinian Authority officials said that only full PA governance in the Gaza Strip, disarmament of Hamas and general elections would end the internal Palestinian schism and restore legitimacy to the Palestinians. Hamas claimed it had never sought to rule the Strip and accused the PA of corruption and coordinating with Israel; A new "aid" ship departed from Italy in an attempt to "break the siege" on the Gaza Strip; An Israeli civilian was killed in a combined terrorist attack in Gush Etzion and a shooting was prevented in northern Samaria. Israeli security forces continued widespread counterterrorism operations in Judea and Samaria; a soldier was stabbed by a terrorist during an operation near Jenin; Two Palestinians were killed, one of them an American citizen, in a violent clash between Palestinians and Jewish settlers in Sinjil; The Palestinian foreign minister stated that the Palestinian Authority was ready to cooperate with the American president to achieve peace within a designated timeframe and added that the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia was not possible without the establishment of a Palestinian state.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (July 7 – 14, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah facilities from the air and on the ground and eliminated operatives as part of ongoing operations to counter Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon, a violation of the ceasefire understandings, and against the organization's attempts to rebuild its arsenal and power. The IDF attacked a military headquarters, destroyed underground facilities, and eliminated Hezbollah operatives, an operative of the Iranian Qods Force and a senior Hamas figure in Lebanon; A senior Hezbollah figure claimed that Israel was targeting the "simple" operatives because it was no longer able to attack the organization's leaders. Meanwhile, Hezbollah was reportedly being on high alert and had evacuated some of its leaders and centers, fearing of a large-scale Israeli attack; The Lebanese security forces were instructed to arrest those involved in attacks on UNIFIL forces, which had been increasing due to friction between south Lebanese residents and UN soldiers; The Lebanese leadership said they were committed to ensuring the state's monopoly on weapons, even after submitting their response to the American special envoy Thomas Barack, while Hezbollah continued to defy the demands to disarm. Barack warned that Lebanon would face an existential threat if it did not resolve the issue of Hezbollah's weapons; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem gave an extensive interview in which he claimed that Hassan Nasrallah, the former secretary general, had received information about the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre only half an hour before it began, and that Hezbollah did not enter into a full-scale war against Israel, fearing destruction and American intervention; Hezbollah reportedly began reorganizing in order to merge several of its combat and operational units and redundant institutions. 
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Spotlight on Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (July 1–8 ,2025)

IDF forces continued extensive aerial and ground attacks on Hamas and other terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip and took control of 65% of the territory. Terrorist operatives were eliminated, including the commander of the Hamas naval force in the northern Gaza Strip. Eight IDF soldiers were killed in the fighting, including five who died when an explosive device detonated in Beit Hanoun; Hamas responded positively to the proposal for a sixty-day ceasefire and the release of hostages, while presenting demands for substantial amendments regarding humanitarian aid, IDF withdrawal, and an end to the war. As a result, indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas began in Qatar in an attempt to reach agreements; Two American workers for the humanitarian aid foundation in the Gaza Strip were wounded by shrapnel grenades. For the first time, over one million meals were distributed in a single day at one of the foundation's distribution centers; An officer in the Hamas security forces admitted that the movement had lost control of the Gaza Strip and that armed clans were filling the vacuum. In anticipation of a ceasefire, Hamas security forces escalated their pursuit of "agents and collaborators with Israel," foremost among them Yasser Abu Shabab, who was ordered to surrender to face charges of treason. Abu Shabab claimed that he was acting only in coordination with the Palestinian Authority, not Israel; The Freedom Flotilla Coalition announced its intention to dispatch another vessel in an effort to "break the siege" on the Gaza Strip; Israeli security forces continued extensive counterterrorism operations in Judea and Samaria. A terrorist squad en route to carrying out an attack was detained in the village of Barta'a, inside Israeli territory.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (June 30 – July 7, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah facilities and eliminated organizational terrorist operatives as part of continued activity against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon in violation of the ceasefire understandings, and against renewed efforts by the organization to reconstruct its military capabilities. Facilities were attacked in south Lebanon and in the Beqa'a Valley, and an operative smuggling weapons for Iran's Qods Force was eliminated; Hezbollah took advantage of the Shi'ite Ashura ceremonies to protest the government's handling of the "Israeli violations" and to justify the continuation of the "resistance.". The United States special envoy, Thomas Barack, admitted that the ceasefire was "a complete failure."; Lebanese President Aoun conveyed to American Envoy Barack his country's response to the American proposals regarding disarmament. Barack expressed satisfaction but noted that the United States would not impose its will and the Lebanese should resolve the issue themselves. Senior Hezbollah figures said they were not willing to discuss the possibility of disarming, and secretary general Na'im Qassem claimed that the missiles were "the foundation of our defense capabilities [sic]," but Hezbollah was reportedly discussing the dismantling of heavy weapons, which had become a "burden."; According to reports, ten thousand of the organization's fighters have been taken out of action since the fighting with Israel began, and Hezbollah has lost all its heavy and medium weapons south of the Litani River. The United States imposed sanctions on senior figures in Hezbollah's economic wing, and Lebanese security forces seized $8.2 million which had been smuggled in suitcases to the airport in Beirut; The Lebanese government claimed the collection of weapons from the Palestinian refugee camps was a fait accompli, and the delay was due to disputes within the Fatah movement and the inability of the Palestinian leadership to unify all factions to implement the decision.
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Possible Iranian Terrorist Attacks Abroad Following the Israel-Iran War

Iran uses global terrorism to promote its national interests, including attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets in response to actions attributed to Israel, such as the attacks on Iran’s nuclear program and the elimination of senior Iranian and "resistance axis" figures; Iranian terrorist activity is supervised and directed by the Qods Force of the Revolutionary Guards and the Ministry of Intelligence. To obscure direct Iranian involvement, for the most part the attacks are carried out by proxy organizations, especially Hezbollah, local operatives, and criminal organizations; Following the Israel-Iran War, June 13 to 24, 2025, during which Israel eliminated dozens of Iranian commanders and attacked nuclear facilities and other strategic Iranian capabilities, Iran may, as part of its response, attempt to attack Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide. The arrest of one suspect who planned an attack on Israelis in Cyprus and of another who photographed Jewish targets in Germany, both of whom operated under Qods Force direction, were early signs the threat was manifesting itself; In ITIC assessment, the unprecedented extent of the damage suffered by Iran, and its need to restore its image and create a balance of deterrence to keep Israel from taking further action, will increase Iran's motivation to attack Israeli and Jewish targets and assets around the world. As in the past, Iranian efforts to exact a price from Israel in the form of a showcase attack abroad can be expected to continue over time, using the wide range of capabilities, networks and facilities available to Iranian intelligence and security services in various countries, while Israel and friendly intelligence services continue to work against them.
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