The West

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (November 10-17, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah facilities in south Lebanon and in the Beqa'a Valley and eliminated operatives of the organization as part of ongoing activity against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon, in violation of the ceasefire understandings and because of the organization's renewed attempts to regain its strength and rebuild its arsenal. A rocket launching site and facilities for the production and storage of strategic weapons were attacked, and a Hezbollah operative who also served as a school principal was eliminated; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem threatened a possible response to the continued Israeli attacks. Another senior Hezbollah figure warned that Israel would achieve nothing with a new war in Lebanon or an escalation and "any aggression will be met with confrontation."; Senior Lebanese government officials reiterated their support for opening negotiations with Israel which would lead to the implementation of the ceasefire agreement and the regulation of the border, and accused Israel of continuing "aggression." It was reported that American officials who visited Lebanon concluded that there was no chance of progress and the American administration would allow Israel to carry out a powerful and brief attack on Hezbollah without sliding into a broad war. The aide to the speaker of the Lebanese parliament visited Iran and said he hoped it would stand by Lebanon "in the face of the challenges before us."; UNIFIL protested to Israel over the construction of a new security wall, claiming it penetrated Lebanese sovereign territory. The IDF denied UNIFIL's claims of deliberate gunfire at a UN force in south Lebanon; The Lebanese army reportedly refused Israel's demand to conduct searches for Hezbollah weapons in private homes in south Lebanon for fear of confrontation with operatives of the organization and its supporters. A senior Hezbollah figure claimed the organization had the right to refuse external pressures to disarm; Given the growing pressure from the American administration to block Hezbollah's funding, Lebanon's central bank announced there would be tighter supervision on unauthorized institutions and illegal money transfers. Hezbollah warned that it would respond to an attempt to disrupt the activities of the al-Qard al-Hasan Association, the organization's economic arm. Read more...

Iran Assists Hezbollah’s Post-Ceasefire Reconstruction

The United States Treasury Department reported that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) had transferred approximately $1 billion to Hezbollah since the beginning of the year to reconstruct the organization's military capabilities in the wake of the war against Israel. Since the war ended in late November 2024, Iran has also continued to smuggle weapons to the organization and interfere with the Lebanese government's efforts to disarm Hezbollah. As a result, a senior American delegation urged the Lebanese leadership to accelerate action against the sources of Hezbollah's funding; The fall of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024 and the flight ban imposed by the Lebanese government on Iran since February 2025 disrupted the land and air routes used by Iran to transfer weapons, technological assistance and funds to Hezbollah. Iran and Hezbollah subsequently found other avenues, including smuggling through Turkey and Iraq, by sea and through currency-exchange agencies. They also continue to rely on smuggling networks along the Syria-Lebanon border, despite Syrian and IDF efforts to block them; The Iranian embassy in Beirut denied the information provided by the American government, but throughout the war in the Gaza Strip and after the ceasefire Iranian officials made clear that they continue to support Hezbollah, as they do other members of the "resistance axis." Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem also publicly thanked Iran for its "massive" assistance; The American disclosure of the financial aid transferred by the IRGC to Hezbollah, along with the exposure of smuggling methods, showed that Iran and Hezbollah had found ways to overcome the challenges of geopolitical changes in Lebanon and the Middle East since the ceasefire in late November 2024, and how difficult it was to dent the 40-year cooperation between Tehran and the Lebanese organization. In all probability Iran will continue to support and fund Hezbollah's military and civil reconstruction in order to preserve its status within the Shi'ite community and in Lebanon, and to prevent Israel and the Lebanese authorities from weakening or neutralizing Iran's most important strategic arm in the Middle East. The absence of more decisive action by the international community in general and by the Lebanese government in particular, to eliminate Hezbollah's funding sources and block smuggling routes, will allow Iran and Hezbollah to continue transferring funds and weapons with little disruption. Read more...

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (November 1—12, 2025)

The Iranian Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the extensive attacks carried out by the IDF in Lebanon. Iranian media warned of Israel’s intention to conduct a large-scale operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon and threatened a harsh response from Hezbollah and the “resistance front” in case of such action; The US Department of Treasury has stated that Iran has transferred one billion dollars to Hezbollah since the beginning of 2025. The Iranian Embassy in Beirut rejected the American claims; Iranian Majles Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf called for a firm stance against Israel and for exacting a price from countries seeking to normalize relations with it. The Houthi leader accused the United States of being complicit in the Israeli “aggression” in the Gaza Strip even after the ceasefire. The Houthi chief of staff sent a letter to Hamas’ military wing, praising its victory over “the strongest empires.”; Iran has reportedly increased the supply of weapons, including missiles, to pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq, in preparation for the possibility of a resumption of hostilities between Iran and Israel. It was also reported that the IRGC encourages major Shiite militias to integrate into Iraq’s political system while at the same time supporting smaller militias so they can continue military activity within the “resistance front.”; Mexican security forces thwarted an IRGC attempt to assassinate Israel’s ambassador to Mexico. Iran strongly denied the report; Senior Houthi officials warned they are preparing for a new round of fighting against Israel and confirmed they have suspended their attacks against Israel and against vessels in view of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip; The Houthis claimed to have uncovered an espionage network operating on behalf of a “joint operations room” of Israel, the United States, and Saudi Arabia, which had been collecting intelligence on Houthi military and security infrastructure as well as senior government officials. Read more...

Spotlight on Terrorism: Lebanon and Hezbollah (November 1-10, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah facilities and eliminated terrorist operatives as part of the continued activity targeting Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon in violation of the understandings of the ceasefire agreement, and in view of the organization's efforts to renew its arsenal. The forces attacked facilities belonging to the organization's elite the Radwan Force and killed Hezbollah and Lebanon Battalion operatives. According to reports, Israel warned Lebanon it would intensify its attacks because the activity of the Lebanese army to disarm Hezbollah was insufficient; Lebanese leaders condemned Israel for continuing to attack. President Aoun said the attacks had to stop before Lebanon would enter negotiations with Israel; Hezbollah published an open letter rejecting outright any possibility of negotiations with Israel and making it clear that it would not relinquish the "right to resistance." A senior Hezbollah figure rejected the accusation that the organization was responsible for Lebanon's economic collapse and accused the government of corruption. Opponents of the organization attacked Hezbollah's position and said it endangered Lebanon, and reiterated that state institutions were responsible for decisions regarding war and peace; The commander of the Lebanese army presented the cabinet meeting with the monthly report on implementing the plan for a state monopoly of weapons and claimed "progress had been made" in disarming Hezbollah south of the Litani River toward the goal of reaching the target by the end of the current year; The United States Treasury Department reported that Iran had transferred $1 billion to Hezbollah since the beginning of 2025 and called on the Lebanese government to block Hezbollah's sources of funding. Reportedly, Hezbollah has expanded its drug trafficking and money laundering in Venezuela to help it cope with the economic challenge; Hezbollah commanders and operatives wounded in Israeli attacks reportedly underwent plastic surgery to conceal their identities; The first coordination meeting on Lebanon's reconstruction was held with the participation of representatives of the Lebanese government, members of parliament, the army and UNIFIL. A Hezbollah bloc member called on the government to place the issue of reconstruction at the top of its priorities. Read more...

The Palestinian Authority prepares to administer the Gaza Strip after the war

Hamas' violent takeover of the Gaza Strip in 2007 created a schism, the first of its kind, between the Palestinian Authority (PA) government in Judea and Samaria and the Hamas government in the Strip, initiating a continuing hostility between the sides despite attempts at reconciliation; The war that broke out with Hamas' attack and massacre of Israelis on October 7, 2023 provided the PA with an opportunity to reiterate its position that after the war, it should regain control of the Strip to create a geographic and political unity with Judea and Samaria ahead of the establishment of a Palestinian state. Senior PA figures stressed the position anew after the ceasefire that went into effect in the Gaza Strip in October 2025, and presented their own plans for the reconstruction of the Strip. Egypt and Qatar expressed support for the PA's position; Hamas voiced its reservations about the PA's return to the Gaza Strip, despite the movement's declaration that it would relinquish control of the Strip. However, after talks between senior Hamas and PA figures in Cairo, Hamas began to moderate its position and publicly support the appointment of a PA government minister to head the future Palestinian committee to administer the Strip. The most-heard name to head the committee is Dr. Amjad Abu Ramadan, the PA minister of health and former mayor of Gaza; In ITIC assessment, the PA can be expected to play a significant role in the committee for administering the Strip, despite Israel's public opposition and American ambiguity, as part of the understanding being formed by Fatah and Hamas, which seeks to demonstrate that it complies with the ceasefire terms. However, in all probability the dispute over the disarmament of Hamas and other "resistance" factions will continue, given Hamas' refusal to disarm, directly opposed to the PA position that it should hold a monopoly on weapons. Therefore, in ITIC assessment, the tension between Hamas and the PA will most likely persist and make it difficult to find a political solution which would enable progress in the efforts to rehabilitate the Strip. Read more...

Hezbollah’s defiance, the instability of the ceasefire andattempts to promote an Israeli-Lebanese dialogue

On November 6, 2025, Hezbollah published an open letter to the Lebanese leadership and public. It claimed it had abided by the November 27, 2024 ceasefire agreement and added that the objective of demanding that Hezbollah disarm and the Lebanese begin negotiations with Israel was to weaken Lebanon. It also insisted that it would not give up the "right to resist" and was not required to obey government directives on issues of war and peace. Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem and other senior figures expressed similar positions; The letter was prompted by IDF attacks to enforce the ceasefire, targeting Hezbollah's reconstruction efforts and Radwan Force capabilities, amid reports of the organization’s rearmament. Israel and the United States also warned that if the Lebanese army did not accelerate Hezbollah’s disarmament, the attacks could intensify in quality and quantity; To prevent escalation and resolve the disputes between Israel and Lebanon, the United States and Egypt proposed holding bilateral negotiations. Lebanese president Aoun stated that Lebanon had no choice but to engage in dialogue with Israel; Nabih Berri, speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, and a Hezbollah ally, opposed direct negotiations; Hezbollah’s open letter was another expression the organization’s defiance of efforts to disarm it, after previously expressing vague willingness to discuss possibly disarming "under certain conditions." However, Hezbollah has not issued the Lebanese government an ultimatum or explicitly warned Israel, reflecting the organization's continued restraint despite the IDF attacks. In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah’s continued military buildup, the Lebanese army’s weakness in preventing it and the intensification of Israel’s measures could wear down the restraint shown by all actors since the beginning of the ceasefire and increase the risk of a serious escalation toward the end of 2025, the deadline set by the Lebanese government for disarming armed militias in the country, including Hezbollah. Read more...

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