The West

Spotlight on Terrorism: Lebanon and Hezbollah (November 1-10, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah facilities and eliminated terrorist operatives as part of the continued activity targeting Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon in violation of the understandings of the ceasefire agreement, and in view of the organization's efforts to renew its arsenal. The forces attacked facilities belonging to the organization's elite the Radwan Force and killed Hezbollah and Lebanon Battalion operatives. According to reports, Israel warned Lebanon it would intensify its attacks because the activity of the Lebanese army to disarm Hezbollah was insufficient; Lebanese leaders condemned Israel for continuing to attack. President Aoun said the attacks had to stop before Lebanon would enter negotiations with Israel; Hezbollah published an open letter rejecting outright any possibility of negotiations with Israel and making it clear that it would not relinquish the "right to resistance." A senior Hezbollah figure rejected the accusation that the organization was responsible for Lebanon's economic collapse and accused the government of corruption. Opponents of the organization attacked Hezbollah's position and said it endangered Lebanon, and reiterated that state institutions were responsible for decisions regarding war and peace; The commander of the Lebanese army presented the cabinet meeting with the monthly report on implementing the plan for a state monopoly of weapons and claimed "progress had been made" in disarming Hezbollah south of the Litani River toward the goal of reaching the target by the end of the current year; The United States Treasury Department reported that Iran had transferred $1 billion to Hezbollah since the beginning of 2025 and called on the Lebanese government to block Hezbollah's sources of funding. Reportedly, Hezbollah has expanded its drug trafficking and money laundering in Venezuela to help it cope with the economic challenge; Hezbollah commanders and operatives wounded in Israeli attacks reportedly underwent plastic surgery to conceal their identities; The first coordination meeting on Lebanon's reconstruction was held with the participation of representatives of the Lebanese government, members of parliament, the army and UNIFIL. A Hezbollah bloc member called on the government to place the issue of reconstruction at the top of its priorities. Read more...

The Palestinian Authority prepares to administer the Gaza Strip after the war

Hamas' violent takeover of the Gaza Strip in 2007 created a schism, the first of its kind, between the Palestinian Authority (PA) government in Judea and Samaria and the Hamas government in the Strip, initiating a continuing hostility between the sides despite attempts at reconciliation; The war that broke out with Hamas' attack and massacre of Israelis on October 7, 2023 provided the PA with an opportunity to reiterate its position that after the war, it should regain control of the Strip to create a geographic and political unity with Judea and Samaria ahead of the establishment of a Palestinian state. Senior PA figures stressed the position anew after the ceasefire that went into effect in the Gaza Strip in October 2025, and presented their own plans for the reconstruction of the Strip. Egypt and Qatar expressed support for the PA's position; Hamas voiced its reservations about the PA's return to the Gaza Strip, despite the movement's declaration that it would relinquish control of the Strip. However, after talks between senior Hamas and PA figures in Cairo, Hamas began to moderate its position and publicly support the appointment of a PA government minister to head the future Palestinian committee to administer the Strip. The most-heard name to head the committee is Dr. Amjad Abu Ramadan, the PA minister of health and former mayor of Gaza; In ITIC assessment, the PA can be expected to play a significant role in the committee for administering the Strip, despite Israel's public opposition and American ambiguity, as part of the understanding being formed by Fatah and Hamas, which seeks to demonstrate that it complies with the ceasefire terms. However, in all probability the dispute over the disarmament of Hamas and other "resistance" factions will continue, given Hamas' refusal to disarm, directly opposed to the PA position that it should hold a monopoly on weapons. Therefore, in ITIC assessment, the tension between Hamas and the PA will most likely persist and make it difficult to find a political solution which would enable progress in the efforts to rehabilitate the Strip. Read more...

Hezbollah’s defiance, the instability of the ceasefire andattempts to promote an Israeli-Lebanese dialogue

On November 6, 2025, Hezbollah published an open letter to the Lebanese leadership and public. It claimed it had abided by the November 27, 2024 ceasefire agreement and added that the objective of demanding that Hezbollah disarm and the Lebanese begin negotiations with Israel was to weaken Lebanon. It also insisted that it would not give up the "right to resist" and was not required to obey government directives on issues of war and peace. Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem and other senior figures expressed similar positions; The letter was prompted by IDF attacks to enforce the ceasefire, targeting Hezbollah's reconstruction efforts and Radwan Force capabilities, amid reports of the organization’s rearmament. Israel and the United States also warned that if the Lebanese army did not accelerate Hezbollah’s disarmament, the attacks could intensify in quality and quantity; To prevent escalation and resolve the disputes between Israel and Lebanon, the United States and Egypt proposed holding bilateral negotiations. Lebanese president Aoun stated that Lebanon had no choice but to engage in dialogue with Israel; Nabih Berri, speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, and a Hezbollah ally, opposed direct negotiations; Hezbollah’s open letter was another expression the organization’s defiance of efforts to disarm it, after previously expressing vague willingness to discuss possibly disarming "under certain conditions." However, Hezbollah has not issued the Lebanese government an ultimatum or explicitly warned Israel, reflecting the organization's continued restraint despite the IDF attacks. In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah’s continued military buildup, the Lebanese army’s weakness in preventing it and the intensification of Israel’s measures could wear down the restraint shown by all actors since the beginning of the ceasefire and increase the risk of a serious escalation toward the end of 2025, the deadline set by the Lebanese government for disarming armed militias in the country, including Hezbollah. Read more...

Arrest of Hamas Terrorist Cells in Europe: Hamas May Carry Out Attacks Abroad

Over the years, Hamas established a network across Europe, operating charitable societies and institutions to raise money for its civilian and military facilities in the Gaza Strip and Judea and Samaria, even though Hamas was put on the European Union's list of terrorist organizations as early as 2003. Hamas representatives in Europe carried out extensive propaganda activity, including early attempts to establish political parties; Only after the Hamas terrorist attack and massacre on October 7, 2023, and the pro-Hamas demonstrations throughout Europe, did European countries institute serious measures against Hamas, including outlawing the movement and shutting down its financial sources; In October 2025, three Hamas terrorist operatives were arrested in Germany on suspicion of preparing to attack Israeli and Jewish targets in the near or immediate future. In December 2023, four Hamas operatives were arrested in Germany and the Netherlands, suspected of being responsible for maintaining hidden weapons caches in Europe under the supervision of the movement's military wing branch in Lebanon; In ITIC assessment, the arrests indicate that for the first time, Hamas was planning to attack Israeli and Jewish targets on European soil. The arrest of the movement's operatives, some of whom were known to authorities as fundraisers, indicates Hamas' desire to exploit its fundraising and propaganda networks in Europe, especially in Germany and Austria, to carry out attacks, despite the efforts of European authorities to take action against the movement following the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre. Hamas is liable to use people who participated in the pro-Hamas demonstrations in Europe in the past two years to attack Israeli and Jewish targets. Meanwhile, Hamas operatives are also liable to exploit the pro-Hamas demonstrations to establish parties which will seek to enter the political arena and increase Hamas and its supporters' efforts to influence public opinion and decision-makers in Europe. Read more...

Implementation of the Lebanese Army’s Plan to Disarm Hezbollah: Status Report

In early October 2025, the commander of the Lebanese Army presented the government in Beirut with the first report on the implementation of Hezbollah’s disarmament plan, in accordance with the government’s August 2025 decisions on the state’s arms monopoly. The report was reportedly claimed that the Army would be able to complete the demilitarization of the area south of the Litani River by the end of 2025, on condition that IDF forces leave southern Lebanon; “Sources” claimed that the Army only acts against sites that have been reported to UNIFIL and to the Ceasefire Monitoring Committee for fear of clashing with Hezbollah, which could lead to civil war; The Lebanese leadership expressed its commitment to the implementation of the state’s monopoly on weapons and blamed Israel for the delays in implementing the plan due to the continued attacks and the presence of IDF forces in five points in southern Lebanon; Hezbollah leaders made it clear that they oppose disarming the organization. Nevertheless, Hezbollah reportedly requested guarantees in exchange for giving up the weapons.; It was reported that US Special Envoy Thomas Barrack would arrive in Lebanon and warn the heads of state that they have one last chance to enter direct negotiations with Israel on a timetable for Hezbollah’s disarmament, or Lebanon will be left without external support. The US Special Envoy’s Deputy for the Middle East met with senior Lebanese leaders and asked them to work to prevent the restoration of Hezbollah’s military capabilities; In the ITIC’s assessment, the Lebanese Army will continue its operations to collect weapons from the terrorist organizations, focusing on Hezbollah, and to deploy its forces, mainly in areas south of the Litani, aiming to finish this by the end of 2025. On the other hand, in Hezbollah’s strongholds north of the Litani, in the Beqaa and Beirut, the Lebanese Army will find it difficult to disarm the organization for fear of a confrontation that could escalate into civil war; In the ITIC’s assessment, Hezbollah will also continue to publicly oppose its disarmament, but may agree to partial disarmament, mainly in the region south of the Litani, in exchange for appropriate guarantees. At the same time, the Lebanese government will continue its efforts to persuade the international community, especially the American administration, to increase pressure on Israel to reduce its attacks and withdraw its forces from positions in southern Lebanon, fully or partially, to help convince Hezbollah to show greater flexibility on disarmament. However, if the US administration intensifies its use of leverage, such as withholding funds for reconstruction aid or granting a free hand to Israeli action in Lebanon, the Lebanese government may change its cautious position regarding dealing with Hezbollah. Read more...

Hezbollah’s Reconstruction Efforts Amid the IDF’s Enforcement of the Ceasefire in Lebanon

Since the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon went into effect on November 27, 2024, Hezbollah has been making efforts to restore its capabilities, which were severely damaged in the campaign against Israel between October 2023 and November 2024, while adapting the organization’s structure to the new reality. Senior Hezbollah officials have even declared that the organization is prepared for a new confrontation with Israel. Hezbollah’s reconstruction activities in southern Lebanon constitute a violation of the understandings prohibiting Hezbollah’s presence south of the Litani River; In light of identifying accelerated efforts to reconstruct the organization’s infrastructure, the IDF carried out hundreds of attacks against Hezbollah operatives and the organization’s military infrastructure in southern Lebanon and other areas of the country. Since the beginning of October 2025, a total of 20 attacks have been carried out to enforce the ceasefire understandings, destroying capabilities that aided in reconstructing Hezbollah’s infrastructure, including hundreds of engineering vehicles and a concrete production quarry; Hezbollah has continued the line it has taken since the beginning of the ceasefire, calling on the Lebanese authorities to intensify their efforts against “Israeli aggression,” while vaguely threatening that the “resistance” may lose its patience; The Israeli strike that destroyed hundreds of engineering vehicles intensified the anger and criticism from the Lebanese leadership, which accused Israel of attempting to undermine Lebanon’s reconstruction efforts in general and efforts to reconstruct the villages in southern Lebanon in particular. Prime Minister Salam also instructed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to file a complaint with the UN Security Council; Against the backdrop of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the attempt to increase American pressure on Israel, Lebanese President Aoun proposed opening indirect negotiations with Israel to resolve disputed issues. It was reported that Hezbollah did not reject the idea, but demanded as a precondition the cessation of strikes, withdrawal of IDF forces from southern Lebanon, and the release of Lebanese detainees held in Israel; In the ITIC’s assessment, Hezbollah is expected to continue efforts to restore its capabilities despite IDF enforcement actions, with emphasis on areas north of the Litani River to minimize friction with Lebanese Army forces working to implement the state monopoly on weapons in southern Lebanon. The ITIC assesses that if the trend of Israeli strikes against Hezbollah operatives and infrastructure intensifies, Hezbollah is expected to increase criticism and pressure on state leadership, but it appears that for now, the organization remains restrained and will avoid direct action against Israel. However, if Israeli strikes result in widespread harm to uninvolved civilians, Hezbollah may respond more extensively under the pretext of “defending Lebanon.” Read more...

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