The West

The issue of emigration from the Gaza Strip in light of President Trump’s proposal

On January 25, 2025, after the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip went into effect, U.S, President Trump proposed the temporary or permanent relocation of all Gazans in light of the extensive destruction and to facilitate reconstruction. The proposal sparked condemnations from the Palestinians, Iran and Arab states, which accused it of being a "forced displacement" in violation of international law; The proposal reignited the issue of emigration from the Gaza Strip in general and of young people in particular, known even before the Gaza Strip War. Unofficial data indicated that approximately 300,000 young people had left the Strip since Hamas took control in 2007, primarily due to the economic situation and lack of hope for the future; The Hamas leadership sought to downplay emigration, calling any reference to it a Palestinian Authority smear campaign, but a document found by the IDF in Gaza written by the Khan Yunis Brigade of Hamas' military wing indicated concerns over the departure of young people, who constituted a significant part of the movement’s fighting force; In ITIC assessment, the Palestinians and Arab states will continue to present a united front against the plan in an attempt to eliminate it in its early stages. However, even if the plan is not implemented, the opening of the Rafah Crossing and others at the end of the war could lead to a significant wave of emigration from Gaza because of the widespread destruction and uncertainty about the future. Such a scenario would pose a significant challenge to Hamas, which would do everything in its power to prevent the emigration of young people, which could weaken its political and military stranglehold on the Gazan public. Read more...

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah Lebanon (January 13 – 25 , 2025)

The IDF continued to thwart Hezbollah's attempts to violate the ceasefire. IDF forces located and destroyed weapons and terrorist facilities in south Lebanon, some near UNIFIL bases and in residential buildings. Lebanese army forces continued to deploy in the villages evacuated by the IDF in the western and central sectors of south Lebanon; Na'im Qassem, Hezbollah secretary general, warned Israel not to try the organization's patience with "violations." A Hezbollah member of the Lebanese Parliament threatened that if Israel did not withdraw by January 26, 2025, the ceasefire agreement would collapse and the Lebanese would have to "confront the enemy"; French President Macron and UN secretary general Guterres visited Beirut and met with senior Lebanese officials. They called for the completion of Israel's withdrawal from south Lebanon and expressed their commitment to the success of the ceasefire, strengthening the Lebanese army and rebuilding Lebanon; Senior Hezbollah officials rejected claims that the organization had been weakened and stated that the "resistance" remained strong and was cooperating with state institutions. Alleged information about the planned burial site for Hassan Nasrallah was posted to social media; Lebanese President Aoun gave Nawaf Salam, president of the International Court of Justice in The Hague, the mission of forming a new government. Hezbollah representatives announced they did not support Salam's appointment; however, according to reports, progress has been made in discussions regarding integrating Hezbollah into the government. Read more...

Houthi-Israel-United States Escalation, December 2024

Since the beginning of December 2024, Yahya Saria, the Houthi military spokesperson, claimed responsibility for 21 UAV and ballistic missile attacks on Israel, six of which were carried out in cooperation with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. It was the highest monthly number of attacks since the beginning of the Gaza Strip War. Some of the missiles and UAVs caused significant damage in Israel; On December 19, 2024, in response to the increase in attacks, the Israeli Air Force conducted a third strike on Houthi targets in Yemen, targeting areas in Sanaa, the capital, for the first time. Among the targets attacked were power stations and fuel and oil tanks, with reports of nine fatalities; The Houthis also escalated attacks on American military and civilian vessels in the Red Sea while decreasing attacks against non-American vessels. The United States carried out airstrikes against command and control facilities and underground missile storage sites; The Houthi leader and senior officials announced that despite Israeli and American strikes, they would continue attacking Israel as part of their "support for the Palestinians," and would not stop until the war in the Gaza Strip ended; In ITIC assessment, the Houthis plan to intensify their attacks on Israel, including by introducing new weapons, to position themselves as the leading active front of the "resistance axis" in light of the ceasefire in Lebanon and the halt of attacks by pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. Although the Houthis connect the continuation of their attacks to the war in the Gaza Strip, they will most likely find other pretexts to continue their violent activities in order to maintain their external and internal standing. However, international cooperation led by the United States, combining economic and military pressure, including targeted strikes on the Houthis' military capabilities, could dampen their ability to maintain their activities over time. Read more...

Hamas and Hezbollah Activities in Europe: Germany as a Test Case

In November 2024, charges filed in Germany against four suspects affiliated with Hamas for operating weapons depots for Hamas in Europe and planning attacks on Israeli, Jewish and Western targets in Germany. In July 2024, the German ministry of the interior ordered the closure of the Islamic Center in Hamburg after evidence was found that for years it had served the interests of Iran and Hezbollah in the country; Both cases provide evidence of the continued presence of Hamas and Hezbollah in Europe in general and Germany in particular, despite efforts by authorities to limit or prevent their activities, especially following the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre in Israel; Germany, like other European countries, has always walked a fine line between counterterrorism, its commitment to absorbing immigrants and the protection of human rights. That was why for years if did not designate Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist organizations or outlaw outlawing them, allowing their organizations and charities to raise funds for terrorist activities which also targeted German; In 2020, Germany ended the EU's arbitrary separation between Hezbollah’s military wing and its so-called political wing, and designated Hezbollah a terrorist organization. A similar move against Hamas was taken only in November 2023, although the movement as a whole had been designated a terrorist organization by the EU since 2014; An October 2024 report issued by Germany’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) warned that in addition to actions by individuals motivated by antisemitism, the escalation in the Middle East also posed a threat to Jewish and Israeli targets because of operational preparations by Iranian or Hezbollah proxies or by Hamas; In ITIC assessment, German law enforcement authorities will continue efforts to prevent Hamas and Hezbollah activities as part of a growing European effort to reduce the risk from Iranian proxies. However, the threat posed by Hamas and Hezbollah can be expected to remain high for Europe in general and for Germany in particular. The arrest of Hamas operatives and the exposure of weapons depots may indicate a change in the movement’s activities in Europe, which until now avoided carrying out attacks abroad and focused on fundraising and promoting its agenda within civilian social organizations. Hezbollah may also activate its network, which in all probability still exists in Germany, to attack Israeli and Jewish targets, either as revenge for the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and senior organization members or as part of a possible Iranian response to the Israeli strike on Iran in October 2024. Hamas and Hezbollah may also exploit the radicalization of Muslim immigrant communities in Europe, as demonstrated by the attack on Israeli soccer fans in Amsterdam in November 2024, to construct a support base which would help them spread their anti-Israeli and antisemitic agenda and even carry out attacks. Read more...

Antisemitism in the Arab-Muslim World during the Gaza Strip War

The Hamas terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, and the outbreak of the Gaza Strip War ignited the largest wave of antisemitism and hatred of Jews worldwide since the end of World War Two. That hatred is reflected in the Arab-Muslim world, from the Iranian-led resistance axis, with terrorist organizations like Hamas and the Houthis, to the so-called "moderate" Sunni countries such as Turkey and Qatar; In the Arab-Muslim world, antisemitism inundates newspaper articles and cartoons, statements by influential religious and political leaders, and the social media, where posters explicitly call for attacks on Jews. They use a combination of anti-Jewish themes from traditional Islamic texts and classic European antisemitic motifs, such as those in the Protocols of the Elders of Zion; The unprecedented Hamas terrorist attack and massacre on October 7, 2023, marked the first time that Hamas' deeply ingrained hatred of Israel and the Jews was so fully and brutally understood and brought to bear; The objectives of this study are to explain the historical and religious roots of antisemitism in the Islamic world, identify significant centers which spread antisemitism today, and show how antisemitic propaganda tries to define the Jews. We use a precise definition of antisemitism as it refers the alleged collective negative traits of Jews, both in terms of their perceived spiritual and physical characteristics; In ITIC assessment, as long as the war in the Gaza Strip continues and as long as the Palestinians continue accusing Israel of committing "genocide," Islamic antisemitism will carry on in high gear, as has been the case since October 7, 2023. Although antisemitism in the Arab-Muslim world has mainly remained in the media and on social networks, the pro-Palestinian riots carried out for the most part by Muslims in the Netherlands on November 7, 2024, in which Israeli soccer fans were attacked, suggest that Islamic antisemitism may lead to more acts of violence as the war continues. However, ending the war in Gaza does not guarantee a decrease in Islamic antisemitism. The narrative promoted by Hamas and the Palestinians surrounding the Gaza Strip War and its aftermath may keep antisemitism at high levels even after a ceasefire. Read more...

The UN General Assembly Votes to Give the Palestinian Authority Additional Rights

On May 10, 2024, the UN General Assembly, with a majority vote of 143 countries, approved a resolution to grant the Palestinian Authority (PA) additional rights in the UN. It also allowed the PA to resubmit its request to the Security Council for full UN membership. The significance of the vote is that the representatives of the PA. The vote was a precedent-setting, controversial move, as it is not clear whether the General Assembly has the authority to grant the PA, defined as an observer, the rights of a full UN member state, as only the Security Council has that authority. Without a doubt, the vote in the General Assembly was a significant political achievement for the PA. Winning a majority vote in the General Assembly, with countries such as France voting in favor, indicated the broad consensus that currently exists around the globe for the recognition of the "State of Palestine." The step may also promote bilateral recognition of a Palestinian state, including by EU member states. It also challenges United States policy towards the Palestinian issue, after an attempt was made to bypass the American veto of the proposed resolution in the Security Council and the possibility that the issue would be deliberated again by the Security Council. Read more...

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