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The Palestinian Islamic Jihad

The future of Hamas’ weapons and its efforts to rebuild the military wing

The American Twenty-Point Plan, which served as the basis for the ceasefire agreement to end the Gaza Strip War, explicitly stipulates that during the second phase Hamas and the other armed terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip will be required to disarm and the Strip will become a demilitarized zone; Senior Hamas figures made it clear that although they were committed to maintaining the ceasefire, they were not willing disarm the "resistance" until the establishment of a Palestinian state. They also reiterated that it was "a complex issue that had to be deliberated' within "a broader framework of general Palestinian understandings about the future of the Strip."; As after the previous rounds of fighting, and despite the demand that it disarm, Hamas quickly took advantage of the ceasefire to rebuild its military wing by collecting unexploded ordnance and ammunition left in the Gaza Strip after two years of war. In all probability, to restore its arsenal Hamas will use weapons smuggled across the Egyptian border via civilian drones and the entry of raw materials and dual-purpose equipment intended for the reconstruction of the Strip to manufacture weapons; In ITIC assessment, Hamas' unwillingness to relinquish the weapons of the "resistance" reflect its determination to continue the armed "struggle" against Israel under the pretext of a "legal and religious [sic] right to fight the occupation." Therefore, until a new, temporary administration is established in the Gaza Strip, Hamas can be expected to take advantage of the interim period to rebuild its military capabilities, with Iran also expected to continue backing Hamas by providing financial aid, supplying weapons, and transferring technical and other knowledge and training. The involvement of Qatar and Turkey, Hamas' allies, in shaping the "day after" in Gaza can be expected to obstruct the establishment of a temporary administration which could lead genuine, sincere efforts to limit Hamas' activity and disarm it. However, even if the temporary administration demonstrates determination, Hamas will continue to use its proven experience to adapt its military buildup processes to the changing situations on the ground.
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Spotlight on Terrorism – September 2025

During September 2025 fighting in the Gaza Strip and counterterrorism activity in Judea and Samaria continued. The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah continued despite IDF strikes on Hezbollah targets. The Houthis continued attacking Israeli territory; The IDF continued aerial and ground attacks on terrorist targets throughout the Strip and began a ground maneuver inside Gaza City. Ten IDF soldiers were killed. Commanders and operatives in the military wings of Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and other terrorist organizations were eliminated, including operatives involved in the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre, and operatives who held hostages. An attempted strike on the Hamas leadership in Qatar failed. Five rockets were fired at Israeli territory during September; There were four terrorist attacks compared with one in August; six Israeli civilians and three IDF soldiers were killed. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations across Judea and Samaria, during which rockets were found and a network operating under the direction of Hamas' headquarters in Turkey was exposed; The IDF continued operations against Hezbollah's violations of the ceasefire which went into effect on November 27, 2024, and against the organization's attempts to reconstruct its military capabilities. At least 13 Hezbollah operatives were eliminated, including one involved in directing terrorism from Syria and another operating in the Iranian Imam Hussein Division, and military facilities were attacked. An operative from the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese Brigades for Resistance to the Israeli Occupation was eliminated; Suspects planning to attack IDF forces in southern Syria were detained, and weapons and missile depots were attacked; The Houthis claimed responsibility for 26 ballistic missile and UAV attacks on Israel. The IDF spokesperson reported the interception of nine ballistic missiles and 12 UAVs, with additional missiles disintegrating en route to Israel; three UAVs hit Eilat, Israel's southernmost city, and Ramon Airport, injuring more than 20 people. The IDF attacked Houthi regime targets in Yemen twice.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (September 17—30, 2025)

In his speech at the UN General Assembly, the Iranian President accused Israel of committing “genocide” in the Gaza Strip and declared that the “Greater Israel” plan expresses the true intentions of the “Zionist regime.” The Houthi leader in Yemen accused the Arab countries of making a “strategic mistake” due to their continued ties with Israel; Hardline media in Iran expressed reservations about European countries’ recognition of the “State of Palestine,” arguing that such recognition is not enough to bring about a change in the Palestinians’ situation or to end the “Zionist occupation.”; Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, arrived in Lebanon to participate in the commemoration ceremonies marking the first anniversary of the targeted killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. He stressed Iran’s continued support for Hezbollah but made it clear that it does not interfere in Lebanon’s decision-making. Before Larijani’s visit, the Lebanese government refused to allow two Iranian planes to land in Beirut ahead of the anniversary events; The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman responded to the Syrian President’s remarks that the severing of relations between the two countries is not permanent and said that Iran is ready to renew ties with Damascus but is not in a hurry to do so; The Houthis claimed responsibility for nine attacks against targets in Israel using ballistic missiles and drones. Two drones exploded in Eilat, injuring at least 20 people. In response, the IDF attacked Houthi military targets in Sana’a; The Houthis reportedly improved their own capabilities in the production of drones and long-range missiles and are preparing for the possibility of a ground raid into Israeli territory; A Dutch-flagged cargo ship was attacked in the Red Sea and caught fire. Two crew members were injured; The United States has added four pro-Iranian militias in Iraq to the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations. The militias are preparing amid concerns about an Israeli attack; A Syrian militia claimed responsibility for an explosion near an IDF post in southern Syria, in which an IDF reserve officer was seriously wounded. 
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Spotlight on Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (September 16-29, 2025)

IDF forces continued to operate further inside Gaza City and continued aerial attacks on terrorist targets above and below ground and the targeting of terrorist operatives, including those involved in the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre. At least 750,000 Gaza City residents responded to IDF calls and moved to humanitarian areas in the south of the Strip despite threats and attempts by Hamas to prevent them. Six IDF soldiers were killed in the fighting; The United States president proposed a 21-point plan to end the war and secure the release of all hostages. Hamas denied it had received a new proposal and repeated its previous demands; Reports indicated the establishment of new militias operating against Hamas in various areas of the Gaza Strip, some in cooperation with Israel. Hamas security forces executed "collaborators" and promised protection to those who surrendered; The Global Sumud (Resilience) Flotilla is advancing with more than forty vessels and hundreds of activists in an attempt to "break the siege" of the Gaza Strip; Two IDF soldiers were shot and killed at the Allenby crossing by a Jordanian terrorist, and an IDF soldier was killed in a vehicular ramming attack in Samaria. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations in Judea and Samaria and located rockets in the Ramallah and Tulkarm areas; Speaking before the UN General Assembly, Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas called for Hamas to disarm and promised that the "Palestinian state" would be demilitarized. Hamas condemned the speech and accused him of promoting the "Zionist narrative."
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Reactions to the Wave of Recognition of a Palestinian State

About ten countries, including France, Britain, Canada and Australia, announced their recognition of a Palestinian state, bringing the number of countries recognizing "Palestine" to 159 of the 193 UN member states. The announcements came after the UN General Assembly adopted the "New York Declaration," which supports advancing the two-state solution as the basis for ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; The Palestinian Authority welcomed the recognition and called for practical steps which would enable the establishment of the state of "Palestine." Hamas said that the recognition was the result of the October 7, 2023 attack and the organization would continue with armed "resistance." However, Palestinian Internet users doubted that the wave of diplomatic recognition would end the war in the Gaza Strip or improve the humanitarian situation; In the United States, the countries that recognized a Palestinian state were condemned, while in Italy and Germany it was called a premature step which would not advance negotiations to end the war and resolve the conflict. According to the Arab world, recognition gave Palestinians hope for realizing their rights; In ITIC assessment, adopting the New York Declaration and the additional recognition of a Palestinian state are a cognitive achievement for the Palestinians after the Palestinian issue had been pushed to the sidelines in recent years, and strengthen Hamas' arguments about the "historical importance" of the October 7, 2023 terrorist attack and massacre. However, the actual establishment of a Palestinian state is still in the distant future because of Israel's control of territory and resources, the weakness of the Palestinian Authority and its support for terrorism, in addition to the security situation in the Gaza Strip and Hamas' continued terrorist activity. American opposition to the recognition of a Palestinian state and its ability to veto a Security Council resolution to establish a Palestinian state leave the current move at the declarative level.
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spotlight on Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (September 9-16, 2025)

On September 16, 2025, IDF forces launched a ground maneuver in Gaza City as part of Operation Gideon’s Chariots II, following airstrikes on hundreds of terrorist targets across the city. Despite threats and obstruction attempts by Hamas, at least 350,000 residents responded to the IDF’s calls and relocated to humanitarian areas in the southern Gaza Strip; Negotiations for the release of the hostages and a ceasefire have been frozen following an Israeli attempt to eliminate the Hamas leadership in Doha, Qatar. Hamas has made it clear that it will not give up its demands for an end to the war and a complete withdrawal of IDF forces from the Gaza Strip; Pro-Palestinian activists continued their flotilla in the Mediterranean Sea in an attempt to “break the siege” on the Gaza Strip; The PA’s security forces reportedly detained businessman Samir Halile, who claimed he is a candidate for the position of interim governor of the Gaza Strip; A Palestinian terrorist holding a blue ID card wounded two Israelis in a stabbing attack at a hotel in kibbutz Tzuba. Israeli security forces sealed the homes of the two perpetrators of the recent shooting attack in Jerusalem’s Ramot neighborhood, even before obtaining a demolition permit; The Palestinian Authority welcomed the UN General Assembly’s decision to adopt the New York Declaration, which calls for the implementation of the two-state solution.
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