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The Elimination of Yahya al-Sinwar, Head of Hamas: Reactions and Insights

On October 17, 2024, the IDF spokesperson announced that Yahya al-Sinwar, head of Hamas' political bureau, had been killed in an encounter with IDF forces while he was hiding in a building in Rafah. The IDF spokesperson reported that al-Sinwar's identity became clear only after his body was discovered and that it had not been a targeted killing; Only a day later did Hamas confirm the death of al-Sinwar, who was appointed head of the political bureau at the beginning of September 2024 after the elimination of Isma'il Haniyeh. The movement's announcements praised al-Sinwar's role in leading Operation al-Aqsa Flood (the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre) and his death in a clash with IDF forces, adding that they would continue their "resistance" and would not change their conditions for ending the war in the Gaza Strip and releasing the hostages; The Palestinian Authority and the other Palestinian terrorist organizations condemned the killing, stating he was a symbol of the "resistance" and claiming he had been killed while facing the "enemy"; Iran and the rest of the "resistance axis" stated that al-Sinwar was a "fighter" and a symbol of the "resistance," and promised to continue their support for the Palestinian "resistance." Hamas and "resistance axis" supporters on the social networks praised al-Sinwar as having stood up to the "enemy" until the last minute, while Hamas opponents did not hide their satisfaction at his death; In ITIC assessment, his death might increase the importance of the "external" leadership in Qatar, but it is possible that Hamas will not reveal the name of the new leader to make it difficult for Israel to eliminate him or exert pressure on him in the negotiations. In ITIC assessment, al-Sinwar's brother, Muhammad al-Sinwar, is expected to fill his place in the leadership of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, both at the "political" and the military level. In ITIC assessment, in the near future the Hamas leadership will not change its positions regarding negotiations to end the war in the Gaza Strip, which are demands for a complete halt to the fighting, a complete withdrawal of IDF forces from the Strip, and the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons, especially the prisoners with blood on their hands, in exchange for the release of the hostages. However, if the "external" Hamas leadership becomes the dominant actor, it may be possible to exert sufficient pressure to achieve flexibility regarding the details of the deal and the future leadership in the Gaza Strip.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (October 7 – 14 , 2024)

The IDF forces operated in the southern, central and northern Gaza Strip, where they focused their activity on the Jebalya region. The forces attacked terrorist facilities and Hamas terrorist operatives operating from within civilian locations. Several Hamas operatives who participated in the terrorist attack and massacre on October 7, 2023 were eliminated. Four IDF soldiers were killed. Terrorists fired rockets and launched UAVs into Israeli territory. Hamas said there was no progress in the negotiations for a ceasefire and a hostage deal because the movement was committed to its previous positions, which include Israel's complete withdrawal from Gaza, the release of Palestinian prisoners and the reconstruction of the Strip. According to reports, immediately after having been elected as the leader of Hamas, al-Sinwar ordered a return to suicide bombing attacks. Following his order, an attack was attempted in Tel Aviv. Despite the talks that took place in Cairo between representatives of Hamas and the Palestinian Authority regarding "the day after," there are still many disputes and disagreements. An Israeli civilian was killed and others were injured in a stabbing in Hadera. The Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism activities. Five residents of Taybeh, members of ISIS, were detained on suspicion of planning to attack the Azrieli Towers in Tel Aviv with a car bomb. Palestinian Authority (PA) figures congratulated Bolivia for joining the lawsuit against Israel at the International Court of Justice, and Nicaragua for severing diplomatic relations with Israel. Mahmoud Abbas underwent surgery to have a pacemaker inserted. The activities of the PA security forces in Tubas were criticized.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (October 1 – 8 , 2024)

One year since the October 7 Hamas attack and massacre: Senior Hamas figures marked the first anniversary of the start of Operation al-Aqsa Flood with messages "justifying" the attack and praising the Palestinian "resistance" and throughout the Middle East, alongside accusing Israel of committing "genocide"; IDF forces began extensive activity in the Jebalya refugee camp and Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip, alongside continued activity in the central and southern Gaza Strip, and attacks on Hamas facilities operating from civilian locations. An IDF fighter was killed fighting in the northern Gaza Strip. Eighteen rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory, including at the Greater Tel Aviv area, most of them on October 7, 2024; Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip, renewed contact with Qatar after several weeks of inactivity. A senior Hamas terrorist rejected a proposal to exile the movement's leadership to Sudan. The spokesman for the Hamas military wing warned that IDF activity endangered the lives of the hostages; The Palestinian Authority prime minister announced the establishment of a national working party for reconstructing the Gaza Strip. Hamas and Fatah delegations arrived in Cairo to discuss the establishment of a "national consensus" government and the post-war management of the Strip; A Hamas delegation met with the president of Iran. Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad congratulated Iran for attacking Israel with ballistic missiles; This past week Palestinian terrorists carried out three attacks, murdering seven civilians and a policewoman. The Israeli security forces continued their counterterrorism activities in Judea and Samaria; at least 12 terrorist operatives were killed in an airstrike in Tulkarm.
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Spotlight on Terrorism – September 2024

During September 2024 the fighting continued in the Gaza Strip, Judea and Samaria and south Lebanon, and the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Yemen continued attacking Israel; The Gaza Strip: Four rockets were fired at Israeli territory, the lowest monthly figure since Gaza Strip War began on October 7, 2023. Israel continued eliminating the most senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad military leaders; Judea, Samaria and Israel: Terrorists carried out six attacks in Judea, Samaria and east Jerusalem, killing seven Israelis, including four security personnel. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism activities, focusing on northern Samaria. Sixteen terrorist operatives were killed in airstrikes, including terrorist organization commanders in Tubas, Tulkarm and Qabatya; Lebanon: The fighting between Israel and Lebanon escalated following the explosions of Hezbollah operatives' communications devices and the increase in Israeli attacks, during which senior Hezbollah officials, headed by secretary general Hassan Nasrallah, were eliminated. The IDF launched Operation Northern Arrows. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 298 attacks on military and civilian targets in Israel, including cities, towns, villages and IDF bases which had not been attacked since the beginning of the conflict on October 8, 2023. Following the escalation, Hezbollah extended its range of attacks, including the first attack on the Tel Aviv area, and introduced new weapons; The Shi'ite militias: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq issued 31 claims of responsibility for attacking 34 targets in Israeli territory, the highest figure since May 2024. There was no confirmation for most of the launches and some of them were intercepted. The Houthis claimed responsibility for four attacks on Israel, three of which involved surface-to-surface missiles. Israel responded with an airstrike on Yemeni territory.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (September 24 – October 1, 2024)

IDF forces continued to focus their activities on the southern and central Gaza Strip, including attacks on Hamas facilities operating in civilian sites. An IDF soldier was injured in a clash in the southern Gaza Strip; Hamas said the fighting in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon would stop only if Israel stopped the war; The director of an aid organization was killed by Hamas ministry of the interior forces "by mistake."; A senior Hamas official denied publications of an agreement with Fatah on civilian management of the Gaza Strip; Israel, Judea and Samaria: A suspect was detained for planning a combined attack in the Galilee. The Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism activities in Judea and Samaria, detaining dozens of wanted Palestinians; The Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas spoke at the UN, accused Israel of committing "genocide" and called for international protection of the Palestinian Authority and the imposition of sanctions on Israel.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (September 3 – 10 , 2024)

IDF forces continued their operations in Rafah and the center of the Gaza Strip, attacking terrorist facilities located in civilian compounds and eliminating senior terrorist operatives; Hamas reiterated its demands for a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and denied Israeli and American accusations of its making new demands as part of the negotiations; The drive to vaccinate the children in the Gaza Strip against polio continues; Charges were revealed in the United States against six Hamas terrorist leaders for their involvement the October 7, 2023 attack and the massacre of civilians; Israel, Judea and Samaria: This past week Palestinian terrorist operatives carried out two attacks, one of which killed three Israeli civilians. The Israeli security forces continued their counterterrorism activities, detaining three suspects for planning an attack in the immediate future; The PA submitted a draft proposal to the UN General Assembly calling for an end of the "Israeli occupation" within six months.
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