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Muhammad Dahlan and His Possible Involvement in “The Day After” in the Gaza Strip

In attempts to find a party to manage the Gaza Strip "the day after," the name of Muhammad Dahlan, a senior Fatah figure in exile in the UAE, has occasionally come up as a potential candidate oversee Gaza's administration after the war, at least temporarily. In September 2024, the Fatah leadership under Mahmoud Abbas decided to promote a reconciliation initiative with Dahlan and other ousted Fatah members; Dahlan's name emerged prominently due to his involvement in Gaza during the war through UAE humanitarian aid efforts and his political connections with various Gaza figures, including Yahya al-Sinwar, who was head of the Hamas political bureau until he was killed in October 2024; Muhammad Dahlan himself has denied the reports, claiming he refuses to take on any security, governmental or executive role and was solely focused on humanitarian aid activities; Born in Khan Yunis in the Gaza Strip, Dahlan was a prominent figure in the "middle generation" of Fatah leadership. Following the Oslo Accords and the establishment of the Palestinian Authority (PA) he held senior roles, including head of the preventive security forces in Gaza and minister of civilian affairs. As part of his role he engaged in political and security discussions with Israeli officials, but after the outbreak of the second intifada his name was mentioned in connection with to terrorist activities against Israel; In 2011, Dahlan was expelled from Fatah over claims he attempted to overthrow PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas. He relocated to the UAE, becoming a close advisor to President Muhammad bin Zayed. Meanwhile he worked to maintain his status within the PA through political alliances and by strengthening ties with Hamas in Gaza; In ITIC assessment, reconciliation talks between Fatah and Dahlan can be expected to continue, as they serve both sides. For the PA, they represent an opportunity to draw closer to the UAE and Gulf States, which were expected to play a central role in Gaza's reconstruction after the war. For Dahlan, the process helps strengthen his standing within the PA as a potential leader after the Mahmoud Abbas era, especially if Marwan Barghouti remains imprisoned in Israel during negotiations with Hamas over the release of the hostages. Dahlan also has the advantage of not currently being associated with the PA leadership and was recognized as a prominent rival to Mahmoud Abbas and the leadership, which was widely perceived as corrupt by the public.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (November 12 – 19 , 2024)

IDF forces continued their extensive activity in the Jabalia refugee camp and Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip, alongside continued activity in the central and southern Gaza Strip. Three IDF fighters were killed in the northern Gaza Strip; The hostages and the ceasefire agreement: A senior Hamas “source” claimed that contact with the command in the Gaza Strip which is responsible for securing the hostages had been terminated. The Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman made it clear that his country is ready to renew mediation attempts if the sides show seriousness. Hamas denied that the movement’s leadership had moved from Qatar to Turkey; The Hamas Ministry of the Interior in the Gaza Strip established a new police unit to combat gangs looting aid convoys. More than 20 Palestinians were reportedly killed in the unit’s activity against looters; Israel, Judea and Samaria: This past week, two terrorist attacks were carried out, in which two IDF soldiers were wounded. The Israeli security forces continued their counterterrorism activities in Judea and Samaria; Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas said in a speech marking the 36th anniversary of the Palestinian "Declaration" of Independence that the Palestinians are still ready for peace and the implementation of the two-state solution but would not compromise on their rights. Mahmoud Abbas reportedly received an American proposal for the “day after,” including the establishment of an international civilian administration with the assistance of the Palestinian Authority, security arrangements, and the reconstruction of the region during the transition period.
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Spotlight on Terrorism – October 2024

During October 2024, fighting continued in the Gaza Strip, Judea, Samaria, and south Lebanon, with attacks on Israel from pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Yemen; Lebanon: The fighting escalated with the start of the IDF maneuver against Hezbollah in south Lebanon on October 1, 2024. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 806 attacks on IDF forces and military, security and civilian targets in Israel as far as the Tel Aviv area, and deployed new weapons. Due to high number of casualties, Hezbollah stopped issuing mourning notices for senior figures and operatives, except for the announcement of the elimination of Hashem Safi al-Din, head of the Executive Council, who was to be appointed Hezbollah secretary general; The Gaza Strip: The terrorist organizations fired 28 rockets at Israeli territory, compared to four rockets in September. Targeted killings of senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist operatives continued, including Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip; Israel, Judea and Samaria: Palestinian terrorists carried out eight attacks were carried out in Israel, Judea, Samaria and East Jerusalem, compared to six in September; eight civilians and two security personnel were killed. Three of the terrorists held Israeli identification cards and two others held Jordanian citizenship. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations focused on northern Samaria. At least 27 terrorist operatives were eliminated in exchanges of fire and airstrikes, including commanders of terrorist organizations in Tulkarm, Nablus and Jenin, as well as operatives preparing to carry out attacks; Shi'ite militias: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq issued 72 claims of responsibility for attacking 76 targets in Israeli territory, the highest number since the attacks began in November 2023, prompted by the escalation in the fighting between in Lebanon and the killing of al-Sinwar. The Saraya Awliya al-Dam militia issued 17 claims of responsibility. Most of the Iraqi militia launches were not verified, and some were intercepted. Two IDF soldiers were killed by an UAV in the Golan Heights, the first fatalities from attacks originating in Iraq. The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacking eight targets in Israel, compared to four in September.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (November 5 – 12 , 2024)

The IDF forces continued operations in the northern Gaza Strip, focusing on the Jabalia refugee camp and Beit Lahia, and in the central and southern parts of the Strip. Five IDF soldiers were killed; Qatar announced it was temporarily suspending its mediation efforts for a hostages and ceasefire agreement. Senior Hamas figures denied reports that Qatar had ordered the movement's leadership to leave Doha following American because of lack of progress in negotiations; The IDF announced the opening of the Kerem Shalom Crossing for humanitarian aid and enlarged the humanitarian zone; There has been no progress in talks between Hamas and Fatah on establishing a committee to manage the Gaza Strip; Documentation was published showing torture of Palestinians by Hamas operatives in Gaza. Gazans protested high prices, forced merchants to close their businesses, accused them of deliberately raising prices and complained about lack of oversight, police weakness and ongoing fighting; Two Israelis were injured in a stabbing and vehicle ramming near the settlement of Shilo. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations in Judea and Samaria, including airstrikes; The PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas spoke with President-elect Trump and expressed willingness to work with him to achieve peace. At the Arab-Islamic summit meeting in Saudi Arabia, Mahmoud Abbas met with the King of Jordan and the Saudi Arabian Crown Prince, gave a speech and called on Arab and Muslim countries to pressure for Israel’s expulsion from the UN and to review their relations with Israel.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (October 29 – November 5 , 2024)

The southern arena: IDF forces continued extensive operations in the northern Gaza Strip, focusing on the Jebalya refugee camp and Beit Lahia, while maintaining activity in the central and southern parts of the strip. Two IDF soldiers were killed, and another died after having been wounded; Hamas leaders rejected Egyptian and American proposals for temporary ceasefires and partial releases of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, reiterating their demand for a complete end to the war and an Israeli withdrawal from the entire Gaza Strip; Hamas and Fatah representatives reached a preliminary agreement to establish a technocratic committee to manage public affairs for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and handle the strip's reconstruction after the war's end; Israel, Judea and Samaria: Over the past week no terrorist attacks were carried out. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism activities throughout Judea and Samaria, including airstrikes. Dozens of operatives from the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine were detained in operations in Judea and Samaria; PA chairman Mahmoud Abbas visited Cairo, meeting with President el-Sisi and the head of the Arab League. The Palestinians condemned Israel's announcement of banning UNRWA's activities.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (October 14 – 29 , 2024)

According to reports, Hamas would not elect a successor to Yahya al-Sinwar as the new head of its political bureau until March 2025 and would rely on the leadership of a committee composed of five senior members; IDF forces continued operations in the northern Gaza Strip, focusing on the Jabalia refugee camp and Beit Lahia, and in the central and southern regions of the Strip. Fourteen IDF soldiers were killed; Negotiations continued for a hostages and ceasefire agreement mediated by Egypt and Qatar. Senior Hamas figures did not reject the Egyptian president's proposal for a short ceasefire and the release of four Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, but Hamas continues to demand a complete end to the war, full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the reconstruction of the Strip; Israel, Judea and Samaria: There were five terrorist attacks. An Israeli police officer and a civilian were killed, and others were injured. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism activities throughout Judea and Samaria; Mahmoud Abbas and senior Palestinian Authority figures continued activities in the international arena, accusing Israel of committing "genocide" and calling on the international community to impose sanctions on Israel unless it withdrew from Palestinian territories.
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