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Summary of Terrorist Events, January 2025

During January 2025 fighting continued in the Gaza Strip, Judea and Samaria, along with Houthi attacks from Yemen. On January 19, 2025, a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip went into effect, also bringing an end to Houthi attacks. The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah held firm, and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq did not attack Israel; Israel, Judea, and Samaria: Palestinian terrorists carried out five attacks in which three Israelis were killed. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations throughout Judea and Samaria and launched a large-scale operation in northern Samaria; Gaza Strip: Until the ceasefire on January 19 went into effect, 11 rockets were fired into Israeli territory. Targeted killings of leading military figures in Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) continued. Hamas confirmed the deaths of its military wing chief, Mohammed Deif, and other senior military leaders; Shi'ite militias: The Houthis claimed responsibility for 18 missile and drone attacks on Israeli targets (until January 19, 2025).
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (February 11 – 18 , 2025)

Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad released three Israeli hostages, and in return Israel released 369 Palestinian prisoners. Despite Hamas' agreeing to resume prisoner releases, senior figures in the movement continued to accuse Israel of violating the humanitarian clauses of the ceasefire agreement and delaying negotiations on the second phase; Given the announcement of Trump's plan to relocate Gazan to other countries, Egypt and several other Arab states reportedly have a plan to reconstruct the Gaza Strip without evacuating the residents and without Hamas involvement; Senior Hamas figures emphasized that the movement did not seek to govern the Gaza Strip the "day after" but opposed transferring full authority to the Palestinian Authority. Elections for the Hamas leadership will most likely be postponed given the uncertainty of the future of the ceasefire; An Israeli civilian was injured in an axe attack on Mt. Gilboa in northern Israel; the terrorist was detained. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations in northern Judea and Samaria; Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas said he opposed the "displacement" of the Gazans and called for the implementation of the [so-called] "right of return."
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Hamas Promotes a “Victory” Narrative for Gaza Strip War

The announcement of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, even before it went into effect on January 19, 2025, provided Hamas with an opportunity to start promoting a "victory" narrative over Israel in the aza Strip War, which they refer to as Operation al-Aqsa Flood, which began with the Hamas terrorist attack and massacre on October 7, 2023; Official statements from Hamas and its senior figures, amplified by the movement's official and affiliated media outlets, as well as during public "release ceremonies" for Israeli hostages, aimed to promote the narrative that Israel had failed to achieve its objectives against the "resistance" and the "steadfastness" of the Gazans; Hamas' media made extensive use of statements from Israeli political, military and media figures, which in their perspective reinforced the message of Israel's "failure" to achieve the war's objectives; In ITIC assessment, Hamas will continue highlighting Israel's failure to achieve its objectives and promoting the "victory" narrative as long as the ceasefire agreement is maintained, in order to soften public criticism in Gaza of the extensive devastation in the Strip. If the agreement transitions to the second phase, which is expected to include further Israeli withdrawals from Gaza and the release of more prisoners who committed particularly serious crimes, Hamas will intensify its "victory" propaganda to increase its power in Gaza and maintain its position in the Palestinian arena, even if it is forced to relinquish actual control over the Gaza Strip.
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The atmosphere among Palestinians who returned to the northern Gaza Strip

Opening access to northern Gaza, as part of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, led to euphoria among the returnees, who did not hide their happiness and felt a sense of participation in the "victory" narrative promoted by Hamas. However, encountering the widespread destruction of homes and infrastructure in northern Gaza led to frustration and anger, and thousands of displaced Gazans returned to the south of the Strip; Some of the criticism was directed at Hamas, with accusations that the movement was not addressing the urgent needs of the residents and was instead focusing on hostage "liberation ceremonies". Nevertheless, criticism remains limited due to fears of a violent response from Hamas, which was quick to demonstrate power and governance as the ceasefire went into effect; In ITIC assessment, uncertainty regarding the timetable for Gaza's reconstruction, particularly in the north, will most likely increase frustration and many may return to the displaced persons camps in the south, where basic services exist and there is a steady supply of humanitarian aid. In addition, given President Trump's proposal to temporarily or permanently relocate the residents of the Strip, the destruction may increase willingness, especially among the younger generation, to consider leaving for abroad in hopes of building their future. In ITIC assessment, Hamas will suppress critical voices by force. However, given public frustration, the extensive destruction in Gaza will make it difficult for Hamas to sustain its "victory" narrative over time without presenting solutions, and may seek to shift responsibility, for instance to the committee for managing the Strip which Egypt is trying to promote, while striving to maintain its military strength.
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The issue of emigration from the Gaza Strip in light of President Trump’s proposal

On January 25, 2025, after the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip went into effect, U.S, President Trump proposed the temporary or permanent relocation of all Gazans in light of the extensive destruction and to facilitate reconstruction. The proposal sparked condemnations from the Palestinians, Iran and Arab states, which accused it of being a "forced displacement" in violation of international law; The proposal reignited the issue of emigration from the Gaza Strip in general and of young people in particular, known even before the Gaza Strip War. Unofficial data indicated that approximately 300,000 young people had left the Strip since Hamas took control in 2007, primarily due to the economic situation and lack of hope for the future; The Hamas leadership sought to downplay emigration, calling any reference to it a Palestinian Authority smear campaign, but a document found by the IDF in Gaza written by the Khan Yunis Brigade of Hamas' military wing indicated concerns over the departure of young people, who constituted a significant part of the movement’s fighting force; In ITIC assessment, the Palestinians and Arab states will continue to present a united front against the plan in an attempt to eliminate it in its early stages. However, even if the plan is not implemented, the opening of the Rafah Crossing and others at the end of the war could lead to a significant wave of emigration from Gaza because of the widespread destruction and uncertainty about the future. Such a scenario would pose a significant challenge to Hamas, which would do everything in its power to prevent the emigration of young people, which could weaken its political and military stranglehold on the Gazan public.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (January 28 – February 4 , 2025)

The ceasefire in the Gaza Strip continues: Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) released a female soldier and ten civilian hostages, five Israelis and five Thais, in exchange for 293 Palestinian prisoners, some of whom were serving life sentences; some were deported abroad. The Rafah Crossing was opened for the exit of patients and wounded; the return of displaced persons to northern Gaza continued; Hamas accused Israel of "humanitarian violations" of the ceasefire, claiming the movement was ready to begin negotiations on the second phase of the agreement. Hamas confirmed the deaths of Muhammad Deif, head of the military wing, his deputy and other senior terrorist operatives. The Palestinian Authority (PA) worked to recruit international aid for the Gaza Strip; Two IDF soldiers were shot to death in the Jordan Valley, the terrorist was killed. Israeli security forces continued a large-scale counterterrorism operation in northern Samaria, eliminating more than 50 terrorist operatives; Nine countries announced the establishment of a group to assist the Palestinians in legal warfare against Israel. The Palestinian Authority and Hamas welcomed the initiative.
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