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The Palestinian Authority (PA)

Hamas Promotes a “Victory” Narrative for Gaza Strip War

The announcement of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, even before it went into effect on January 19, 2025, provided Hamas with an opportunity to start promoting a "victory" narrative over Israel in the aza Strip War, which they refer to as Operation al-Aqsa Flood, which began with the Hamas terrorist attack and massacre on October 7, 2023; Official statements from Hamas and its senior figures, amplified by the movement's official and affiliated media outlets, as well as during public "release ceremonies" for Israeli hostages, aimed to promote the narrative that Israel had failed to achieve its objectives against the "resistance" and the "steadfastness" of the Gazans; Hamas' media made extensive use of statements from Israeli political, military and media figures, which in their perspective reinforced the message of Israel's "failure" to achieve the war's objectives; In ITIC assessment, Hamas will continue highlighting Israel's failure to achieve its objectives and promoting the "victory" narrative as long as the ceasefire agreement is maintained, in order to soften public criticism in Gaza of the extensive devastation in the Strip. If the agreement transitions to the second phase, which is expected to include further Israeli withdrawals from Gaza and the release of more prisoners who committed particularly serious crimes, Hamas will intensify its "victory" propaganda to increase its power in Gaza and maintain its position in the Palestinian arena, even if it is forced to relinquish actual control over the Gaza Strip.
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The atmosphere among Palestinians who returned to the northern Gaza Strip

Opening access to northern Gaza, as part of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, led to euphoria among the returnees, who did not hide their happiness and felt a sense of participation in the "victory" narrative promoted by Hamas. However, encountering the widespread destruction of homes and infrastructure in northern Gaza led to frustration and anger, and thousands of displaced Gazans returned to the south of the Strip; Some of the criticism was directed at Hamas, with accusations that the movement was not addressing the urgent needs of the residents and was instead focusing on hostage "liberation ceremonies". Nevertheless, criticism remains limited due to fears of a violent response from Hamas, which was quick to demonstrate power and governance as the ceasefire went into effect; In ITIC assessment, uncertainty regarding the timetable for Gaza's reconstruction, particularly in the north, will most likely increase frustration and many may return to the displaced persons camps in the south, where basic services exist and there is a steady supply of humanitarian aid. In addition, given President Trump's proposal to temporarily or permanently relocate the residents of the Strip, the destruction may increase willingness, especially among the younger generation, to consider leaving for abroad in hopes of building their future. In ITIC assessment, Hamas will suppress critical voices by force. However, given public frustration, the extensive destruction in Gaza will make it difficult for Hamas to sustain its "victory" narrative over time without presenting solutions, and may seek to shift responsibility, for instance to the committee for managing the Strip which Egypt is trying to promote, while striving to maintain its military strength.
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The issue of emigration from the Gaza Strip in light of President Trump’s proposal

On January 25, 2025, after the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip went into effect, U.S, President Trump proposed the temporary or permanent relocation of all Gazans in light of the extensive destruction and to facilitate reconstruction. The proposal sparked condemnations from the Palestinians, Iran and Arab states, which accused it of being a "forced displacement" in violation of international law; The proposal reignited the issue of emigration from the Gaza Strip in general and of young people in particular, known even before the Gaza Strip War. Unofficial data indicated that approximately 300,000 young people had left the Strip since Hamas took control in 2007, primarily due to the economic situation and lack of hope for the future; The Hamas leadership sought to downplay emigration, calling any reference to it a Palestinian Authority smear campaign, but a document found by the IDF in Gaza written by the Khan Yunis Brigade of Hamas' military wing indicated concerns over the departure of young people, who constituted a significant part of the movement’s fighting force; In ITIC assessment, the Palestinians and Arab states will continue to present a united front against the plan in an attempt to eliminate it in its early stages. However, even if the plan is not implemented, the opening of the Rafah Crossing and others at the end of the war could lead to a significant wave of emigration from Gaza because of the widespread destruction and uncertainty about the future. Such a scenario would pose a significant challenge to Hamas, which would do everything in its power to prevent the emigration of young people, which could weaken its political and military stranglehold on the Gazan public.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (January 28 – February 4 , 2025)

The ceasefire in the Gaza Strip continues: Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) released a female soldier and ten civilian hostages, five Israelis and five Thais, in exchange for 293 Palestinian prisoners, some of whom were serving life sentences; some were deported abroad. The Rafah Crossing was opened for the exit of patients and wounded; the return of displaced persons to northern Gaza continued; Hamas accused Israel of "humanitarian violations" of the ceasefire, claiming the movement was ready to begin negotiations on the second phase of the agreement. Hamas confirmed the deaths of Muhammad Deif, head of the military wing, his deputy and other senior terrorist operatives. The Palestinian Authority (PA) worked to recruit international aid for the Gaza Strip; Two IDF soldiers were shot to death in the Jordan Valley, the terrorist was killed. Israeli security forces continued a large-scale counterterrorism operation in northern Samaria, eliminating more than 50 terrorist operatives; Nine countries announced the establishment of a group to assist the Palestinians in legal warfare against Israel. The Palestinian Authority and Hamas welcomed the initiative.
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Spotlight on Syria (Following the Toppling of the Syrian Regime) January 22 – 29 , 2025

The new Syrian security forces continued searching the country for senior officials of the Assad regime and weapon stockpiles. The forces intercepted a truck carrying weapons en route to Hezbollah in Lebanon; Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammed al-Julani), de facto Syrian leader, held meetings in Damascus with visiting leaders and diplomats, including the Palestinian Authority prime minister and the Russian president's special envoy to the Middle East. The Syrian foreign minister welcomed the EU decision to gradually lift sanctions; Disagreements continue between Damascus and the leadership of Kurdish organizations regarding the integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces into the new Syrian army. The Syrian defense minister warned that the army would be prepared to use force if the issue were not resolved peacefully; IDF preparations for a prolonged presence on the Syrian Hermon and the buffer zone led Ahmed al-Sharaa to warn Israel that if it did not withdraw its forces, Syria would "apply pressure." Residents in the Quneitra area held demonstrations to protest the presence of Israeli forces and called for UN intervention. 
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (January 20 – 27 , 2025)

The ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip continues. Hamas released four female hostage soldiers in exchange for 200 Palestinian prisoners, some of whom were serving life sentences and some who were deported abroad. Approximately 300,000 displaced persons returned to northern Gaza after the IDF evacuated parts of the Netzarim Corridor following the resolution of a dispute over the release of an Israeli civilian hostage; Senior Hamas figures called the return of the displaced to northern Gaza a "victory." Hamas continued to demonstrate governance with the deployment of large police forces and the execution of individuals suspected of collaborating with Israel. The Palestinian Authority continued its efforts to assume responsibility for the Gaza Strip; The Palestinians condemned the American president's proposal to transfer more than one million Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to neighboring Arab countries; According to reports, Hamas recruited thousands of new operatives into its military wing during the war and provided them with accelerated training. An investigative program showed pictures of Muhammad Deif before the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre, and of Yahya Sinwar in Rafah during the war; Four Israelis were injured in a stabbing attack in Tel Aviv; the assailant, a foreign national, was killed. Israeli security forces continued extensive counterterrorism operations in Jenin and Tulkarm, targeting terrorists from the air and on the ground. Four IDF soldiers were injured; Hamas accused the Palestinian security forces of collaborating with Israel because of the arrest of terrorist operatives from the Jenin Battalion; The Palestinian Authority's prime minister met in Damascus with Syria's de facto leader. 
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