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The Israeli Palestinian Conflict

The terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip exploit the civilian infrastructure for terrorist activities

On August 10, 2024, the Israeli Air Force attacked the headquarters of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in the al-Tabi'in school complex in Gaza City. Despite false Hamas claims of intentional IDF attacks on civilians, the IDF spokesperson reported that Hamas had turned schools, where civilians took shelter, into command and control centers, sites for storing weapons and carrying out terrorist activities against IDF forces in the Gaza Strip and against the territory of the State of Israel; Since the beginning of the war on October 7, 2023, a substantial amount of evidence has accumulated about the use the terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip, especially Hamas, make of civilian facilities and the civilian population for the purpose of waging war; The ongoing fighting and the expansion of the IDF's activity to areas such as Rafah and Khan Yunis caused the terrorist organizations to forfeit military assets, and the use civilian facilities gained momentum, as did carrying out terrorist activity from within the population. The terrorist organizations use UNRWA facilities, shelters and humanitarian areas where displaced residents are located for terrorist activities; The strategy of constructing terrorist assets within the civilian space, which constitutes a war crime and a crime against humanity, enables the terrorist organizations to reduce damage to themselves, knowing they will have a kind of immunity from IDF operations, including counterterrorist activities, since insofar as is possible the IDF will not harm civilians or attack institutions such as hospitals, schools and civilian shelter areas. The strategy also enables the terrorist organizations to spread incitement and false propaganda as part of their regional and international battle for hearts and minds by representing Israel as attacking civilian institutions and innocent civilians.
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Yahya al-Sinwar Named Head of Hamas Political Bureau: Reactions and Significance

On August 6, 2024, Hamas announced that Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip, had been unanimously chosen as the movement's new head following the elimination in Tehran of Isma'il Haniyeh, its former head, which was attributed to Israel. Hamas represented al-Sinwar's appointment as indicating Hamas' strength and national unity; In the Palestinian arena, al-Sinwar's appointment was welcomed. Jibril al-Rajoub, secretary of Fatah's Central Committee, called al-Sinwar a "pragmatic, realistic, logical person; Iran and the "resistance axis" congratulated al-Sinwar and called it a blow to Israel, which had not been able to significantly damage Hamas since the beginning of the war; Al-Sinwar, one of the leaders of Hamas' military wing, spent more than 20 years in an Israeli prison until his release in 2011 as part of the Gilad Shalit exchange deal. He became the most influential person in Hamas, with connections in both the movement's military and political wings. Since 2017 he has been the head of the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, and, with Muhammed Deif, the commander of Hamas' military wing who was killed in July 2024, planned and orchestrated the terrorist attack and massacre on October 7, 2023; In ITIC assessment, appointing Yahya al-Sinwar writes finish to the separation of "internal" and "external" Hamas and concentrates complete control in the hands of al-Sinwar, who will remain the decisive factor in the negotiations for the end of the war in the Gaza Strip and the release of the hostages. Since al-Sinwar has not been seen in public since the beginning of the war and is hiding in the tunnels in the Gaza Strip, apparently there is no continuous communication with him. He is therefore expected to rely on those in the "external" leadership who are loyal to him to promote negotiations and manage Hamas' relations with Iran and the "resistance axis."
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Spotlight on Iran (July 31—August 7 , 2024)

During the past week, senior Iranian officials continued to threaten a harsh response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’ political bureau, in Tehran. At the same time, Iran held intensive diplomatic contacts, in which it stressed its right to attack Israel in response to Haniyeh’s killing. The acting Iranian foreign minister met in Hamas’ office in Tehran with the Hamas representative in Iran and stressed that Iran intended to respond decisively to the attack on Haniyeh; Amid Iranian threats of retaliation against Israel, the secretary of Russia’s National Security Council visited Iran and met with the president, the secretary of the National Security Council, and the chief of staff of the armed forces. Russia has reportedly begun transferring air defense systems to Iran; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq and the Houthis continued talks with Iran and other members of the “axis of resistance” to coordinate the joint response against Israel following the killing of Fuad Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh; “Security sources” confirmed that a Houthi officer responsible for coordination with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq had been killed along with four Iraqi militia members in the US attack on a Popular Mobilization headquarters; Rockets were fired at an American base in western Iraq, wounding five American soldiers and two defense contractors. A pro-Iranian militia claimed responsibility for the attack; The Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on a vessel in the Gulf of Aden. The claim has not been verified. The Houthis shot down a US drone, the seventh since the beginning of the conflict in October 2023.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (July 31 – August 6 , 2024)

Isma'il Haniyeh, head of Hamas' political bureau, was killed in an attack in Tehran; he was buried in Qatar. Senior Hamas figures said killing him would not alter the movement's path. The Hamas leadership held consultations to choose his successor. "Sources" stated the movement would resume negotiations for a ceasefire after a new leader had been elected; This past week IDF forces focused their activity on the Rafah area in the southern Gaza Strip and the Netzarim Corridor in the central Gaza Strip. They attacked Hamas terrorist facilities operating in civilian compounds and exposed tunnels and weapons. There was an increase in rocket fire from the Gaza Strip, an Israeli civilian was injured; The IDF confirmed that Muhammed Deif, the commander of Hamas' military wing, was killed in an airstrike in Khan Yunis; Hamas did not issue a confirmation. the IDF continued to target terrorist operatives in the Gaza Strip, including those involved in smuggling and operatives who participated in the Hamas terrorist attack and massacre on October 7 2023; A UN investigation determined that there was evidence indicating the possible involvement of nine UNRWA employees in the October 7, 2023 attack, and announced their dismissal. Israel, Judea and Samaria: This past week Palestinian terrorist operatives carried out three attacks, murdering two Israelis and injuring four others. A Palestinian terrorist stabbed two civilians to death and wounded two others in Holon, and a female Border Police fighter was stabbed at the Tunnel roadblock. An Israeli civilian was injured in a combined shooting and stabbing attack near Kiryat Arba. The Israeli security forces continued their counterterrorism activities in Judea and Samaria, killing nine terrorist operatives in two airstrikes in Tulkarm, and at least five in two airstrikes in Jenin.
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Cooperation between the Shi’ite militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen

The cooperation between the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen has intensified in recent weeks, as reflected in announcements of joint UAV and cruise missile attacks on Israel "in support of the Palestinians" and in response to Israel's [alleged] "massacres" in the Strip Gaza; Between June 6, 2024 and August 4, 2024, the Iraqi militias and the Houthis announced 12 joint attacks on Israel, most of them involving UAVs and some involving cruise missiles. Apart from one incident in which the IDF confirmed the interception of a UAV, there has been no practical verification of the other claims of responsibility; The increasing cooperation between the Shi'ite militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen is part of the concept of the "unity of the arenas" against Israel promoted by the Iranian regime, especially since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip; In ITIC assessment, following the Israeli attack on the Houthi-controlled port city of al-Hudaydah in Yemen, carried out in response to the Houthis' ongoing attacks against Israel and the launching of the UAV that exploded in Tel Aviv, the cooperation between the Houthis and the Iraqi militias is expected to increase and escalate. It is also expected to be reflected in the "resistance axis" response to the killing of Isma'il Haniyeh, head of Hamas' political bureau in Tehran, attributed to Israel, and in response to Israel's elimination of Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah's most senior military commander, in Beirut.
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Reactions to the Deaths of Fuad Shukr and Isma’il Haniyeh

In the southern suburb of Beirut on July 30, 2024, the IDF eliminated Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah's most senior military commander. The attack was carried out in response to a rocket fired by Hezbollah which hit the Druze village of Majdal Shams and killed 12 children and teenagers. Hezbollah confirmed the death of Shukr, stating that he was one of Hezbollah's founders and had led its military operations against Israel. Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah stated that a new phase in the war had begun, claiming that revenge would; On July 31, 2024, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and Hamas announced that Isma'il Haniyeh, head of Hamas' political bureau, had been killed in an attack on the building where he was staying in Tehran, having come to participate in the swearing-in of Masoud Pezeshkian, the new Iranian president. They claimed Israel was behind the attack. Israel did not claim responsibility. Hamas' military wing has threatened to retaliate. The Palestinian Authority (PA) and other Palestinian organizations issued; Iran's leaders made it clear that they would respond to Haniyeh's killing in Tehran; The "resistance axis" condemned Israel's elimination of Shukr in Beirut and the killing of Haniyeh in Tehran, and threatened to retaliate against Israel and the United States; there were condemnations in the Arab-Muslim world, concern of escalation was expressed in the international arena; In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah's response can be expected to exceed the parameters and the self-determined "equations" according to which it has operated from the beginning of the fighting. Hezbollah will most likely employ concentrated firepower, including the use of missiles and UAVs to attack military and civilian sites in northern Israel which so far have not been its targets, increasing the range of attacks on Israeli territory, possibly as far as the center of the country. Iran can also be expected to attack Israel with missiles and UAVs. Hamas will try to increase terrorist activity in Judea and Samaria and attack inside Israeli territory as well. In the short term, the elimination of Haniyeh may also affect efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip and to release the hostages.
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