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The Israeli Palestinian Conflict

Considerable effort by Iran to emphasize the continued support for the “resistance front” following the election of President Pezeshkian

Following the election of Masoud Pezeshkian as president of Iran on July 5, 2024, there has been a marked effort by Iran to emphasize its commitment to continuing support for the “resistance front” it leads. This is apparently due to concerns among elements of the pro-Iranian axis in the region about the consequences of the election of the reformist-leaning president, especially in view of the ongoing Iranian-led regional campaign and the fear of a possible deterioration into an all-out confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. There have been several expressions of the effort to demonstrate continuity in the policy of support for the pro-Iranian axis in the region: messages of support from the president-elect to senior members of the “resistance front; Qods Force commander Esmail Qaani’s visit to the region in recent days and his meetings with senior members of the “resistance front”; Iranian officials’ comments about continuity of regional policy based on the perception that strengthening the “resistance” is one of the permanent pillars of the Islamic Republic; commentaries in the conservative Iranian media presenting Pezeshkian’s messages of support for the leaders of the pro-Iranian axis as an expression of his commitment to them.
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Hezbollah’s Policy for the Use of Force against Israel

On October 8, 2023, a day after the start of the war in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah joined the fighting, opening another front on Israel's northern border. Its objective was to demonstrate solidarity with and to "support" Hamas in its war against Israel and to oblige Israel to invest combat and other resources on the northern border at the expense of fighting in the Gaza Strip; Hezbollah's policy of using force is based on its so-called "deterrent equation" of proactive attacks, attacks in response to IDF offensive activity, attacks on important Israeli targets and increasing the range of attack in response to Israeli attacks on the organization's sensitive targets; During the fighting, Hezbollah adjusted the "equation" with gradual escalation when it felt Israeli attacks had become disproportionate, usually during an escalation in the war in the Gaza Strip or following the elimination of senior Hezbollah commanders. The escalation included the use of more advanced weapons, the larger barrages of rocket launches and longer-range attacks; Meanwhile, Hezbollah is trying to preserve its "deterrent equation" even in the face of expanding the conflict should Israel initiate a ground operation in south Lebanon and to the point of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah.
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Spotlight on Iran (July 3 – 10, 2024)

Following the election of Masoud Pezeshkian as president of Iran, there has been a marked Iranian effort to emphasize Iran’s commitment to continued support for the “resistance front” it leads: the Iranian media has highlighted the message of support sent by the president-elect to Hezbollah’s secretary-general, in which he stressed Iran’s continued support for Hezbollah and the “resistance” in the region against Israel; Senior Iranian officials once again threatened Israel against the possibility of an offensive initiative against Hezbollah; Iran’s president-elect spoke with Syrian President Bashar Assad and stressed that Iran would continue to support Syria and the “resistance.”; The Houthis in Yemen and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed joint responsibility for launching a drone at Eilat. The IDF Spokesperson reported the downing of a suspicious target over the Red Sea. In addition, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for three attacks of its own against targets in Israel. The IDF Spokesperson confirmed that a drone had been downed; Representatives of the pro-Iranian militias reportedly agreed to act against American interests and targets in Israel if war broke out in Lebanon; The Houthis reported three attacks against civilian vessels in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden. There were no casualties or damage. A Greek warship intercepted two Houthi drones en route to a merchant ship in the Gulf of Aden.
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Reactions to the targeted killing of the commander of Hezbollah’s Aziz Unit

On July 3, 2024, Hezbollah announced the death of Muhammad Naama Nasser, aka Hajj Abu Naama, killed in an Israeli airstrike which targeted his vehicle in south Lebanon. another Hezbollah operative was killed in the attack. The IDF spokesperson confirmed that the Israeli Air Force had attacked Nasser, who since 2016 had commanded Hezbollah's Aziz Unit, which is responsible for the western sector in south Lebanon; The organization's announcement called Nasser the "shaheed commander," only the third time since the beginning of the current conflict that Hezbollah awarded the title to one of its operatives; Hezbollah's responded to the killing with six attacks on military targets in northern Israel over two days. Two of the attacks, the most extensive since the start of the hostilities in October 2023, were simultaneous, with upwards of 200 rockets and more than 20 UAVs launched at IDF headquarters and bases in the Golan Heights, the Upper Galilee and the Western Galilee. An IDF soldier was killed, three civilians were injured and fires broke out in various areas; Senior Hezbollah figures said killing Abu Naama would not weaken the organization and or stop the "resistance".
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Spotlight on Iran (June 26—July 3, 2024)

Acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri spoke with foreign ministers in the region and around the world aiming to bring an end to the war in the Gaza Strip. He warned against the possibility of an Israeli offensive initiative against Hezbollah, which would lead to an expansion of the war. Meanwhile, Iran is intensifying its threats in light of the possibility of an all-out confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah; The IRGC commander declared that the “resistance front” was destined for victory; The Houthis in Yemen and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed joint responsibility for four attacks against Haifa and against ships in Haifa Port and on their way to Haifa. In addition, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for an attack on Eilat. However, no verification of the claims has been received from other sources; he coordination committee of the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq decided to escalate its actions against Israel in the event of an all-out war in Lebanon; The Houthis continued to report attacks against civilian vessels and unveiled new weapons intended to attack vessels. The Houthi leader threatened to attack the American aircraft carrier expected to arrive in the Red Sea.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (June 25 – July 2 , 2024)

This past week IDF activity focused on the Shejaiya neighborhood in Gaza City, Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip and the Netzarim Corridor region in the central Gaza Strip. Six IDF soldiers were killed in five different incidents. Rocket fire continued targeting the cities, towns and villages surrounding the Gaza Strip; No progress has been made towards an agreement on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the release of the hostages; The Israeli Coordinator of Government Operations in the Territories reported that between March and June 2024, about nine million liters of fuel were brought in to operate essential facilities in the Gaza Strip. An expert report prepared by the UN stated there was no evidence of hunger in the Gaza Strip. An IDF inspection indicated that the extent of buildings destroyed in the Strip was significantly smaller than the data published by the UN and the international media; Senior Hamas member Khaled Mashal admitted that the Gaza Strip had been destroyed, but called for the "resistance" to continue. He also said the era of the Oslo Accords was over. The Palestinian Authority condemned the statement; The Israeli security forces continued their counterterrorism activities in Judea and Samaria. Two IDF soldiers were killed in IED explosions in Jenin and Tulkarm; Palestinian officials condemned Israel's Political-Security Cabinet's decision to regulate the status of five outposts in Judea and Samaria.
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