The Israeli Palestinian Conflict

Spotlight on Terrorism – September 2024

During September 2024 the fighting continued in the Gaza Strip, Judea and Samaria and south Lebanon, and the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Yemen continued attacking Israel; The Gaza Strip: Four rockets were fired at Israeli territory, the lowest monthly figure since Gaza Strip War began on October 7, 2023. Israel continued eliminating the most senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad military leaders; Judea, Samaria and Israel: Terrorists carried out six attacks in Judea, Samaria and east Jerusalem, killing seven Israelis, including four security personnel. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism activities, focusing on northern Samaria. Sixteen terrorist operatives were killed in airstrikes, including terrorist organization commanders in Tubas, Tulkarm and Qabatya; Lebanon: The fighting between Israel and Lebanon escalated following the explosions of Hezbollah operatives' communications devices and the increase in Israeli attacks, during which senior Hezbollah officials, headed by secretary general Hassan Nasrallah, were eliminated. The IDF launched Operation Northern Arrows. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 298 attacks on military and civilian targets in Israel, including cities, towns, villages and IDF bases which had not been attacked since the beginning of the conflict on October 8, 2023. Following the escalation, Hezbollah extended its range of attacks, including the first attack on the Tel Aviv area, and introduced new weapons; The Shi'ite militias: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq issued 31 claims of responsibility for attacking 34 targets in Israeli territory, the highest figure since May 2024. There was no confirmation for most of the launches and some of them were intercepted. The Houthis claimed responsibility for four attacks on Israel, three of which involved surface-to-surface missiles. Israel responded with an airstrike on Yemeni territory.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (September 25 – October 1, 2024)

Senior Iranian officials continued to express support for Hezbollah and Lebanon following the Israeli attack on Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut, in which Hezbollah’s secretary-general and the commander of the Qods Force’s Lebanon Corps were killed. The officials threatened that Iran would retaliate against Israel; The Iranian president accused the United States and Europe of lying when they claimed that a ceasefire would be reached in the Gaza Strip if Iran did not respond to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh; The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman claimed that Iran had no agents in the region and that the “resistance” organizations represented themselves; Two ballistic missiles fired by the Houthis at central Israel were intercepted. In response, the Israeli Air Force attacked power plants and a seaport used by the Houthis in Ras Issa and al-Hudaydah. Senior Houthi officials claimed that five civilians had been killed and threatened to continue operating against Israel in support of the Gaza Strip and Lebanon; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for 23 attacks against targets in Israel, most of them after the announcement that Nasrallah had been killed. The pro-Iranian militias threatened to escalate their attacks if Israeli military forces entered southern Lebanon.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (September 24 – October 1, 2024)

IDF forces continued to focus their activities on the southern and central Gaza Strip, including attacks on Hamas facilities operating in civilian sites. An IDF soldier was injured in a clash in the southern Gaza Strip; Hamas said the fighting in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon would stop only if Israel stopped the war; The director of an aid organization was killed by Hamas ministry of the interior forces "by mistake."; A senior Hamas official denied publications of an agreement with Fatah on civilian management of the Gaza Strip; Israel, Judea and Samaria: A suspect was detained for planning a combined attack in the Galilee. The Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism activities in Judea and Samaria, detaining dozens of wanted Palestinians; The Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas spoke at the UN, accused Israel of committing "genocide" and called for international protection of the Palestinian Authority and the imposition of sanctions on Israel.
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Israeli Attack in Beirut Eliminates Hassan Nasrallah

On September 27, 2024, the IDF eliminated Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, in an attack on the organization's headquarters under a residential building in the southern suburb of Beirut. Other senior Hezbollah terrorists were killed, including Ali Karaki, commander of the "southern front."; Hezbollah confirmed the death of Nasrallah, nicknamed "Master of the Resistance," calling him "one of its greatest leaders," and its leadership promised to continue the jihad in support of the Gaza Strip and in the "defense of Lebanon". Meanwhile, Hezbollah continued attacking Israel, mostly civilian targets, but did not link the attacks to Nasrallah's death. At this stage, Hezbollah continues attacking and expanding its firing range; The Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets reported that Hezbollah would not stop attacking Israel as part of the "front supporting the Gaza Strip"; Senior Iranian figures condemned the killing of Nasrallah, saying they stood with Hezbollah and Lebanon, but did not threaten a direct military response, although they are probably considering one. Other organizations in the "resistance axis" expressed condolences on Nasrallah's death and praised his role in "the struggle" against Israel. The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq intensified their attacks on Israel; Lebanese politicians eulogized Nasrallah. Opponents of Hezbollah in Lebanon and across the Middle East took to the social media to rejoice; In ITIC assessment, eliminating Nasrallah and the Hezbollah senior military leadership in recent weeks, along with the IDF's ongoing and increasing damage to the organization's chain of command and its military and strategic capabilities throughout Lebanon, has damaged Hezbollah's ability to carry out intensive attacks on Israel, at least in the short term. However, field-level commanders will try to attack more distant targets in Israeli territory, including the greater Tel Aviv area and strategic sites; Nasrallah's most probable successor is Hashem Safi al-Din, the chairman of Hezbollah's Executive Council, who is close to Iran. Apparently Hezbollah will reorganize its ranks with Iranian coordination and assistance and will continue fighting against Israel, partly for survival, and will continue to connect its fighting to the fighting in the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah may also seek to intensify the fighting and expand its firing range after Nasrallah's funeral to exact a price from Israel and be able to present a "victory narrative," and may attack an Israeli target abroad; In ITIC assessment, any Hezbollah decision regarding a coordinated and extensive response, independently or in coordination with the other "resistance axis" organizations, depends on Iran, which has to process events and prepare accordingly, while trying to avoid a regional war; In ITIC assessment, Nasrallah's absence, after 32 years as leader of Hezbollah, can have far-reaching consequences throughout the Middle East. For Lebanon, it can mean an opportunity for the government and military to reinstate their authority (with international assistance) in south Lebanon. It may also have an impact on Lebanon's political system, after Hezbollah prevented the country from electing a new president for more than a year. In the Gaza Strip, it might influence Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip, to reach an agreement for a ceasefire and release the hostages. 
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (September 17- 24 , 2024)

The IDF forces continued their activity in the southern and central Gaza Strip, including attacks on Hamas facilities operating in civilian environments. Four IDF soldiers were killed by an explosive device in Rafah; Khaled Mashal, head of the "external" Hamas leadership, said the leaders of the movement were not in a hurry to reach a ceasefire agreement at any cost. Hamas rejected an Israeli proposal to exile Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip, and other movement leaders; Israel, Judea and Samaria: An Arab-Israeli worker was killed when he tried to attack an IDF soldier at a base in the south. The Israeli security forces continued their counterterrorism activities in Judea and Samaria. Seven terrorist operatives were killed in the town of Qabatiya near Jenin. Hamas' military wing issued the videotaped last will and testament of the August 2024 Tel Aviv suicide bomber, and threatened to renew suicide bombing attacks in Israel; The chairman of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and its prime minister held meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. The General Assembly approved a non-binding Palestinian proposal that requires Israel to withdraw from the "occupied territories" within a year.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (September 10 – 17 , 2024)

IDF forces continued their activities in the southern and central Gaza Strip, including attacks on Hamas facilities operating in civilian compounds. The IDF announced the collapse of Hamas' Rafah Brigade and the destruction of 80% of all the tunnels on the Philadelphi Axis. Two IDF soldiers were killed and seven injured in a helicopter crash; Hamas held talks with the mediators from Egypt and Qatar regarding the ceasefire negotiations, stating it adhered to the outline agreed upon on July 2, 2024 and would not accept new demands from Israel; The first phase of the drive to vaccinate Gazan children against polio ended and 90% of all children have received the first dose. In coordination with Israel, more than a hundred sick and wounded Palestinians were evacuated for treatment outside the Gaza Strip; Hamas published letters sent by Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip, for the first time since he took office; A senior Hamas figure stated that the movement was interested in having a Palestinian national consensus government manage the Gaza Strip after the war, adding that the organizations would hold a meeting to promote a common vision; Israel, Judea and Samaria: This past week Palestinians carried out two terrorist attacks. an IDF soldier was killed. The Israeli security forces continued their counterterrorism activities throughout Judea and Samaria; The PA representative to the UN attended a General Assembly session, following the upgrading of the status of the "State of Palestine."
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