The Israeli Palestinian Conflict

Reactions to the Hezbollah Rocket Attack on Majdal Shams

On July 27, 2024, Hezbollah launched a Falaq 1 rocket from south Lebanon at the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the northern Golan Heights. The rocket hit a soccer field and killed 12 children and teenagers, and injured more than 40 other people; Hezbollah initially claimed it had launched a rocket at the IDF base in the Hermon area, but then published a false statement denying any connection to the attack on Majdal Shams. In view of Israel's threats of a powerful response to the attack, Hezbollah warned it was prepared for a counterstrike, even if it led to an all-out war; In Lebanon, politicians avoided blaming Hezbollah. The Lebanese foreign minister proposed the establishment of an independent commission of inquiry to determine who was responsible for attacking Majdal Shams; Iran warned that an Israeli response could expand the arena of the war, and Syria accepted Hezbollah's claim that Israel was responsible for launching the rocket which hit Majdal Shams. The Druze community in Syria blamed Hezbollah and called for the organization to be punished; The international community condemned the attack on Majdal Shams. However, many of the condemnations avoided directly blaming Hezbollah for launching the rocket.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (July 16 – 23 , 2024)

This past week IDF activity focused on the Rafah region in the southern Gaza Strip and in the east of Khan Yunis in the central Gaza Strip. IDF forces also attacked Hamas facilities in UNRWA compounds. The Palestinian organizations continue firing rockets at towns and villages surrounding Gaza; Hamas accused Israel of raising obstacles in the ceasefire negotiations. The American Secretary of State said progress had been made towards reaching an agreement but several disputed issues remained; Hamas apologized to the Gazans for the suffering caused by the war; Human Rights Watch stated that on October 7, 2023, Hamas and other Palestinian organizations committed war crimes and crimes against humanity; Fourteen Palestinian organizations led by Fatah and Hamas held a meeting in China and signed a declaration "to end the schism and strengthen national unity." They agreed to establish a temporary government for the Gaza Strip after the war; Israel, Judea and Samaria: This past week there were three terrorist attacks in which six Israelis were injured. The Israeli security forces continued their counterterrorism activities in Judea and Samaria; The Palestinians welcomed the advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice in The Hague which stated that Israel had to end the occupation of the Palestinian territories.
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Escalation of the Confrontation Between Israel and the Houthis Background and Significance

On July 19, 2024, an Iranian-made UAV launched in Yemen by the Houthis exploded in Tel Aviv, killing one civilian and injuring eight others; In response, on July 20, 2024, the Israeli Air Force attacked several targets in the area of the Houthi-controlled Red Sea port of al-Hudaydah, in northwest Yemen. According to reports, at least six people were killed and more than 80 injured; On July 21, 2024, the Houthis announced the launch of ballistic missiles at Eilat. the IDF reported intercepting a missile before it entered Israeli territory; The leader of the Houthi movement said the UAV attack marked the beginning of the "fifth phase" in the "conflict" with Israel. Senior Houthi officials claimed that the Israeli attack on al-Hudaydah was a "crime" committed against "civilian facilities" which would not keep the Houthis from "supporting" the Gaza Strip; Palestinian terrorist organizations and organizations affiliated with the Iranian-led "resistance axis" praised the; In ITIC assessment, the Houthis fully intend to react directly against Israel, possibly leading to further escalation in the confrontation. Iran, whose influence on the Houthis is limited, seems to have no particular interest in expanding the conflict.
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Spotlight on Iran (July 10 – 17, 2024)

Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian, speaking with Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’ political bureau, stressed that his government would place the Palestinian issue at the top of his list of priorities and would work to stop the war in the Gaza Strip; Qods Force commander visited several countries in the region and met with commanders and senior members of the “resistance front” to emphasize Iran’s continued support for the pro-Iranian axis; Acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri warned that if Israel tried to expand the war to other arenas, it would cause itself further damage and benefit the “resistance"; The Houthis in Yemen and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed joint responsibility for launching drones at a ship in the Mediterranean. In addition, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for three attacks of its own against targets in Israel. There has been no confirmation of the claims from other sources; The Houthis reported attacks against civilian vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The US Central Command confirmed two of the attacks, one of them against an Israeli-owned ship. There were no casualties, but damage was caused. In addition, the Houthis claimed responsibility for launching drones at Eilat. There has been no verification of the claim from other sources.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (July 9 – 16, 2024)

This past week IDF activity focused on Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, while IDF forces completed their activity in the Shejaiya neighborhood of Gaza City. The forces also operated at UNRWA headquarters in Gaza, where they found large quantities of weapons. The IDF attacked a compound near displaced persons in Khan Yunis from the air, where Muhammed Deif, the commander of Hamas' military wing was hiding. The likelihood that Deif was also killed is increasing. The Palestinian organizations continue firing rockets at the cities, towns and villages surrounding the Gaza Strip; Senior Hamas figures said the movement wanted to continue negotiations despite the attack on Khan Yunis, and blamed Israel for impeding progress; Senior Fatah figures accused Hamas of responsibility for killing civilians in the Israeli attack on Khan Yunis. It was agreed that talks between the representatives of the two movements would resume in China; Four IDF soldiers were injured in a vehicle ramming attack at the Nir Zvi Junction, carried out by a resident of east Jerusalem. Three Israelis were injured in a shooting attack in Samaria. The Israeli security forces continued their counterterrorism activities in Judea and Samaria; The PA prime minister and senior PLO figures met in Ramallah with the new British foreign minister.
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Considerable effort by Iran to emphasize the continued support for the “resistance front” following the election of President Pezeshkian

Following the election of Masoud Pezeshkian as president of Iran on July 5, 2024, there has been a marked effort by Iran to emphasize its commitment to continuing support for the “resistance front” it leads. This is apparently due to concerns among elements of the pro-Iranian axis in the region about the consequences of the election of the reformist-leaning president, especially in view of the ongoing Iranian-led regional campaign and the fear of a possible deterioration into an all-out confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. There have been several expressions of the effort to demonstrate continuity in the policy of support for the pro-Iranian axis in the region: messages of support from the president-elect to senior members of the “resistance front; Qods Force commander Esmail Qaani’s visit to the region in recent days and his meetings with senior members of the “resistance front”; Iranian officials’ comments about continuity of regional policy based on the perception that strengthening the “resistance” is one of the permanent pillars of the Islamic Republic; commentaries in the conservative Iranian media presenting Pezeshkian’s messages of support for the leaders of the pro-Iranian axis as an expression of his commitment to them.
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