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The Global Jihad

Jihad Activity under the al-Sharaa Regime in Syria, a Potential Threat to Israel

The overthrow of the Assad regime in December 2024 and the rise of the new government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani) changed the map of Salafi-jihadist terrorism in Syria; Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (the strongest of the jihadist organizations which opposed the Assad regime) disbanded, along with its affiliated militias, which helped bring down the previous regime. Their operatives were integrated into the security forces of the new government, including foreign jihad fighters; A few jihad organizations which had cooperated with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham opposed the pragmatic positions of the new government and refused to integrate into its ranks. The most prominent example is the Saraya Ansar al-Sunna, which attacked the security forces and Alawite civilians; The regime change in Syria and the absence of a governmental or security presence across large parts of the country provided ISIS with an opportunity to reorganize and establish itself in the Syrian desert in the east of the country and to expand its activity into populated areas near Damascus and the regions of Aleppo, Homs and southern Syria. However, Syria's joining the United States-led international coalition helped reduce the number of the organization's attacks during 2025. Despite the hostile positions of the Salafi-jihadist organizations still active in Syria toward Israel, they have not attacked IDF forces deployed in southern Syria or against Israeli territory. However, the detention of an ISIS operative in southern Syria indicated the potential threat; In ITIC assessment, the growing cooperation between the Syrian regime and the international coalition will make the situation on the ground harder for ISIS, even though the organization will continue its efforts to establish itself in areas where the regime's control remains weak, such as the Syrian desert, and to attack Syrian security forces and civilian localities. Other jihad organizations opposing the regime may also attempt to undermine the stability of the al-Sharaa government. Given that the extra-establishment jihadist elements are focused on the internal Syrian arena, their desire to harm IDF forces or Israeli territory is in all probability a lower priority, although they may try to build facilities in southern Syria that would enable them to threaten Israeli interests in the future.
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Potential Terrorist Threats to Israeli and Jewish Interests in Australia

On December 14, 2025, two Muslim terrorists, who according to assessments by the Australian authorities had been inspired by ISIS, shot participants at a Hanukkah event at Bondi Beach in Sydney. Fifteen people were killed; The attack was the culmination of a wave of antisemitism which has been directed at the Jewish community in Australia since the Hamas terrorist attack and massacre in Israel on October 7, 2023; The October 7 attack was followed by large demonstrations led by pro-Palestinian organizations and fueled a discourse of hatred and anti-Israeli, antisemitic incitement, with broad support from the Muslim community in Australia. At protest demonstrations support was voiced for Hamas, despite its being designated a terrorist organization in Australia, alongside calls for the destruction of Israel; Australian authorities identified Iran as responsible for several antisemitic attacks, following which the Iranian ambassador was expelled and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was declared a terrorism-supporting entity; As the attack in Sydney revealed, figures associated with extreme Islamist worldviews, including Muslim preachers against whom no legal measures have been taken by the authorities, also play a prominent role; The expanding circle of threats against Israeli and Jewish interests in Australia poses a significant challenge for the country's authorities, who are attempting to balance the need to combat antisemitic incitement and the threats it fuels with the need to preserve liberal values, especially freedom of expression, religion and assembly for pro-Palestinian organizations protesting Israeli activity in the Gaza Strip. In ITIC assessment, as long as the authorities do not take concrete action against the promotion of antisemitic incitement, Hamas, Iran and global jihad organizations will find fertile ground in Australia for recruiting operatives who will turn antisemitic and anti-Israeli rhetoric into acts of violence like the Bondi Beach attack.
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The Gaza Strip Following the Killing of Yasser Abu Shabab

On December 4, 2025, the death of Yasser Abu Shabab was reported. He headed the Popular Forces, a militia in Rafah which receives Israeli support and is considered Hamas' most prominent rival in the Gaza Strip. According to the militia, he was killed while trying to resolve a family dispute and it denied Hamas' claim of responsibility for the elimination of Abu Shabab, the most senior wanted operative in the Strip; Abu Shabab's deputy, Ghassan al-Dahini, was appointed the militia's new commander and said they would continue the campaign against Hamas. Leaders of other militias in the Strip that had cooperated with Abu Shabab also said they were committed to continuing in his path; In areas of the Strip under Hamas control, Abu Shabab's death was celebrated with the distribution of pastry and candy. Hamas and the "resistance factions" claimed his death would be the fate of every "collaborator with the occupation." Hamas' ministry of the interior announced that it was granting all "collaborators" a ten-day period for "repentance" to turn themselves in; In ITIC assessment, Abu Shabab's death will encourage Hamas to consolidate its security governance in the Gaza Strip, and may affect the motivation of some operatives of the Popular Forces and other militias opposed to Hamas. However, the genuine fear of Hamas revenge and the execution of anyone who turns himself in, despite Hamas' promises of "leniency," is expected to deter many operatives from surrendering to the "resistance." In ITIC assessment, the militias will continue to operate as long as Israel controls the area of the Yellow Line and provides them with room to maneuver, and as long as there is a chance that international pressure will force Hamas to disarm, even though Hamas will seek to disrupt the militias' activity and attack their operatives, especially militia leaders.
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Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s New Leader: From Jihadist to Stateman?

On December 8, 2024, rebels led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa, aka Abu Muhammad al-Julani, captured Damascus and overthrew the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after a 12-day military campaign, and al-Sharaa became the de facto ruler of Syria; Ahmed al-Sharaa's ideology changed throughout his life, transforming him from a youth raised in an upper-middle class family in Syria to a jihadist activist in the ranks of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Iraq, and eventually to one of the prominent leaders of the rebellion against the Assad regime in Syria. The transformations were reflected in his positions regarding the concept of jihad, his public disassociation from al-Qaeda and ISIS, and changes in his attire and image both in Syria and toward the international community; This study deals with al-Sharaa, his life, the events that influenced him, and his beliefs and ideology as they evolved over more than two decades of activity within Salafi-jihadi movements and the struggle against the Syrian regime; In ITIC assessment, the ambivalence in al-Sharaa's positions and the changes in his conduct over the years were intended to ensure the survival of his organization but also indicated his ideological flexibility and political pragmatism. He is likely to continue presenting himself as a pragmatic figure to secure popular and international support for his emerging rule. However, it remains to be seen whether the ideological positions he developed as a Salafi-jihadi leader will be manifested in his role as the political leader of Syria, including his previously expressed aspiration to lead jihad to "liberate al-Aqsa."
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The Power Groups in Syria after the Fall of the Assad Regime

On November 27, 2024, armed groups opposing the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, led by the Islamist-jihadist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression against Syrian army forces and their allies in northwest Syria. Other groups, sponsored by Turkey, initiated the Operation Dawn of Liberation in the Aleppo area, while another coalition of rebel organizations took control of southern Syria. On December 8, 2024, the rebels occupied Damascus and overthrew the Assad regime; The campaign was managed by three umbrella groups: the al-Fatah al-Mubin Operations Room led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the pro-Turkish Syrian National Army and the Southern Operations Room. Each was made up of organizations, units and political entities with ideological, religious and ethnic differences and varying interests; Also to be taken into account are the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a militia led by Kurdish forces and supported by the United States, whose objective is to strengthen Kurdish control in northern Syria and which is currently in conflict with the new power structures in Syria; The factions which have taken control in Syria have yet to issue official statements regarding Israel, even in light of IDF strikes on strategic facilities across Syria and the seizure of the buffer zone in the Golan Heights; Despite the cooperation of revolutionary forces in overthrowing Assad's regime and statements from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani) about his desire to establish a government representing all Syrians, the large number of groups and conflicting interests are likely to lead to internal conflicts and exacerbate the chaos within Syria. However, if the parties learn from mistakes made in other parts of the Middle East after the overthrow of authoritarian regimes, such as Iraq and Libya, and manage to find an inclusive formula which meets the interests of the various groups and communities, in ITIC assessment, in the long term opportunities exist for stabilization in Syria.
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ISIS calls for jihad in Europe to avenge Muslim deaths in the Gaza Strip

On August 29, 2024, an editorial in the ISIS al-Nabā’ weekly called on Muslims in Europe to carry out "lone wolf" attacks on Jews and Christians in retaliation for the war in the Gaza Strip and European governmental support for Israel; The editorial was published in the wake of two terrorist attacks, one in Germany and the other un Russia, for which ISIS claimed responsibility, stating they were carried out "to avenge the Muslims in Palestine."
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The Global Jihad

The global jihad is the name given to the international network of Islamist terrorist organizations sharing Al-Qaeda’s ideology. In fact, all the Muslim fundamentalist terrorist organizations in the world regard themselves as part of Islamic jihad. These groups have many supporters within the Islamic world, who adhere to a compelling religious justification for a military interpretation of the term jihad.

The full name of the global jihad is the “World Islamic Front for Jihad against Jews and Crusaders.” It serves as an umbrella organization for coalitions of terrorist organizations and independent terrorist networks with common ideologies and shared operational ties. 

The global jihad organizations base their activities on Islamist ideology, which regards the religion of Islam as a way of life, determining not only the individual’s way of life but also the character of the regime and society. The Islamic jihad organizations regard Western culture as the complete opposite of Islam. They consider the free world as the enemy of all Muslims. They despise the values of the West, especially democracy, secularism, equality and human rights. The Islamist terrorist organizations advocate all-out war, jihad, against those perceived as their enemies (in various places, Islamist terrorist organizations fight against different enemies), and perpetrate mass killings and massacres, mostly against unarmed random victims.

All the organizations in the global jihad strive to spread Islam and establish Islamic law in all the countries in the world through a jihad against the West and its allies (among them Israel and the pro-Western Arab states). Global jihad organizations advocate a total, uncompromising battle in which the ends justify any and all means. Some of the global jihad networks carry out independent terrorist attacks and others cooperate with each other at various levels.