ISIS supporters spontaneously respond to the killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, while so far there has been no “formal response”

So far no formal ISIS response has been issued regarding the killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (as of the morning of October 30, 2019). Since October 27, 2019, ISIS has issued routine claims of responsibility for attacks carried out by its operatives in Syria, Iraq and its various provinces in Asia and Africa, with no mention of the killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

The significance of the killing of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (Initial assessment)

The killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdad by an elite American force is a serious blow to ISIS. A charismatic, authoritarian leader, he was the dominant figure in the ISIS leadership. His uniqueness was his unsuccessful attempt, the first of its kind, to establish an Islamic Caliphate, here and now, which would restore to Islam the glory of its beginnings.

Turkey’s Invasion of Syria and Its Influence on ISIS

On October 9, 2019, the Turkish army launched a broad military operation in northeastern Syria (called "Peace Spring"). Its stated objective is to establish a "safe zone" in Syria, 18-22 miles deep by 250 miles wide from the Euphrates River to the Syria-Iraq border.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, in an interview with an Iranian magazine affiliated with Supreme Leader Khamenei, emphasizes the importance of its civilian institutions

In September 2019, the Arabic website of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei published an interview conducted by the Al-Masir magazine with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Among the issues addressed by Nasrallah in a long interview (about five hours) are Hezbollah’s civilian activity and civilian institutions.

Iran’s Conduct in Recent Months Indicates a Shift to Direct Military Action over Use of Proxies

Since abandoning its “strategic patience” policy in May 2019, which Iran adopted following the announcement by U.S. President, Donald Trump, in May 2018, to withdraw from the JCPOA and re-impose sanctions against it, Tehran initiated a number of offensive operations in the Persian Gulf region

Resistance society: Hezbollah’s municipal activity

Hezbollah’s civilian activity also includes the municipal field in municipalities of regions with a Shiite population. In view of the rural nature of most of Shiite society, Hezbollah attaches major importance to local government in towns and villages and maintains regular representation there. Through power positions at the municipal level (see below) and the provision of services to the local residents in cities, towns and villages, Hezbollah wins major influence on the ground.

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