Other Arab Countries

The Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Agreement: Reactions and Insights

On April 16, 2026, the United States announced a ten-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon to advance direct bilateral talks for a peace agreement. The American administration said in a statement that Israel would retain its right to self-defense, but the United States "prohibited" Israel from attacking in Lebanon; IDF forces remained in south Lebanon and eliminated terrorists who posed a threat. Two IDF soldiers were killed in two incidents after the start of the ceasefire; and reiterated its usual demands: an end to the "aggression," the withdrawal of IDF forces to the border, the release of Lebanese held in Israel, the return of the displaced and the reconstruction of the country. Hezbollah claimed that Iranian pressure helped achieve the ceasefire and warned President Aoun and Prime Minister Salam not to continue direct negotiations with Israel; Lebanese President Aoun claimed the ceasefire showed that Lebanon would determine its own fate and ignored Iran when he thanked the countries that helped stop the fighting. Parliament Speaker Berri reiterated Iranian assistance in achieving the ceasefire and his opposition to direct negotiations; Thousands of displaced civilians returned to south Lebanon despite warnings from the IDF and the Lebanese army, while residents of the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia admitted they were still afraid to return to their homes for fear of renewed fighting; In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah will continue to represent the ceasefire as a Hezbollah-Iran achievement while attempting to challenge IDF forces maintaining the agreement to be able to accuse Israel of "violating the agreement." At the same time, Hezbollah can be expected to escalate internal criticism against the Lebanese leadership, which will raise the tension in Lebanon between Hezbollah's supporters and opponents. The Lebanese government will try to use the momentum to advance direct talks with Israel and implement the state’s monopoly on weapons, especially applying its sovereignty in south Lebanon to convince the United States to pressure Israel to withdraw to the border. Read more...

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (March 30—April 15, 2026)

Qods Force commander Esmail Qaani praised the involvement of the “Resistance Axis” in the campaign alongside Iran, noting that they waged a “heroic war”; Until the ceasefire in Iran on April 8, 2026, the Houthis claimed responsibility for four attacks against Israel using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. It was reported that three ballistic missiles were either intercepted or fell in open areas, and one drone was intercepted; The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq continued their attacks using rockets, missiles, and drones against US bases and facilities in Iraq, the Gulf states, and Jordan until the ceasefire. The militias announced that at least eighty commanders and operatives were killed in strikes attributed to the United States against Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) bases in Iraq during the campaign; Senior Iranian officials strongly condemned the IDF strikes in Lebanon following the ceasefire between Iran and the United States, claiming they violated the understandings reached with the United States. The IRGC and “Resistance Axis” militias warned that continued strikes would lead to a harsh response on their part; The Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, sent a message to Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem, emphasizing Iran’s support for the “resistance against the Zionist and American enemy.” The Iranian Supreme Leader’s advisor warned the Lebanese Prime Minister that ignoring the role of the “resistance” would expose Lebanon to “irreversible security risks”. Read more...

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (March 11-18, 2026)

As part of the military campaign in Lebanon, the IDF eliminated senior operatives acting on behalf of the IRGC. The Lebanese Foreign Ministry protested to Iran over the joint attacks with Hezbollah against Israel and denied that the four Qods Force operatives killed in an Israeli strike were diplomats; The Houthis have continued to emphasize that they are monitoring developments in the campaign involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, but have not yet intervened in the fighting; Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq continued attacks using missiles and drones against American bases and facilities in Iraq, Jordan, and the Gulf states. The military spokesman for Kata’ib Hezbollah was eliminated; In his first message, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, emphasized Iran’s support for the “Resistance Front” and declared it an integral part of the values of the Islamic Revolution; “World Jerusalem Day” rallies were held across Iran despite the military campaign. Senior Iranian officials used the events to stress Iran’s commitment to the Palestinian cause and the destruction of the State of Israel. Read more...

The Iran-Israel War: Possible Iranian-Orchestrated Attacks on Israeli and Jewish Targets

On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched a combined preemptive strike in Iran which included attacks on dozens of military, security and regime targets across the country, during which Iranian's supreme leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of other senior officials were eliminated. Iran responded with missile and UAV attacks on Israel, American facilities in the Middle East and neighboring countries; Along with a military response, concern increased that the regime in Tehran would also carry out revenge attacks on Israeli, Jewish and American targets, using the terrorist infrastructure it has constructed in many countries around the world, which it uses as a tool for attacks and attempted attacks to advance the interests of the Islamic Republic. Shi'ite religious scholars also issued fatwas and calls for jihad; Since the beginning of the war, Iranian terrorist plots against Israeli and Jewish targets in the United Kingdom and Azerbaijan have been exposed and prevented from coming to fruition. In addition, an unknown organization suspected of being inspired by Iran claimed responsibility for four attacks on Jewish institutions in Europe; Israeli sources called on Israeli citizens around the world to take increased precautionary measures, particularly near Jewish and Israeli sites, and Israeli missions reduced they activity and presence; In ITIC assessment, given the damage to the heads of the regime in Iran in general and the elimination of Iran’s leader in particular, and given the risk to the regime’s stability, Iran will seek to exact a high price from Israel and the United States, in addition to the arena of direct hostilities, and to increase pressure to halt the attacks as soon as possible. It is entirely possible that the combination of a desire for revenge and a strategic need for leverage could promote various terrorist networks directed and assisted by Iran to attack Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide, as long as the war continues and after it ends. Read more...

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (January 21-28, 2026)

The Palestinian ambassador in Tehran said that Tehran has provided Palestine with unconditional moral and political support; An Iranian researcher claimed on a television program that Israel is destined to be destroyed as a political entity prior to the reappearance of the Twelfth Shiite Imam (the Mahdi); Iran’s embassy in Lebanon strongly condemned the IDF strikes in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley, claiming they strengthen the Lebanese people’s determination to “resist”; Reports indicated that Iran’s Supreme Leader welcomed the nomination of Nouri al‑Maliki for the formation of the new government in Baghdad. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson claimed that Tehran does not interfere in Iraq’s internal political affairs; The secretary-general of the Iraqi Harakat al‑Nujaba movement opposed efforts to disarm the pro‑Iranian militias, claiming that the “resistance’s weapons are ideological and disciplined”; The Houthis and the pro‑Iranian militias in Iraq escalated their threats to strike American and Israeli targets in the event of an attack against Iran. Read more...

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (January 7-14, 2026)

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Lebanon and met with senior state officials and the Hezbollah secretary-general. He stressed the need to confront the ongoing IDF attacks in Lebanon and expressed Iran’s support for Lebanon’s sovereignty and for expanding cooperation between the two countries; Araghchi called on the Syrian government to refrain from moving closer to Israel amid the renewed security talks between the two countries; The leader of Kata'ib Hezbollah stated that the group has a “religious and moral duty” to stand by Iran and warned the United States that a war against Iran “is not a picnic.” Read more...

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