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The Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Agreement: Reactions and Insights

On April 16, 2026, the United States announced a ten-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon to advance direct bilateral talks for a peace agreement. The American administration said in a statement that Israel would retain its right to self-defense, but the United States "prohibited" Israel from attacking in Lebanon; IDF forces remained in south Lebanon and eliminated terrorists who posed a threat. Two IDF soldiers were killed in two incidents after the start of the ceasefire; and reiterated its usual demands: an end to the "aggression," the withdrawal of IDF forces to the border, the release of Lebanese held in Israel, the return of the displaced and the reconstruction of the country. Hezbollah claimed that Iranian pressure helped achieve the ceasefire and warned President Aoun and Prime Minister Salam not to continue direct negotiations with Israel; Lebanese President Aoun claimed the ceasefire showed that Lebanon would determine its own fate and ignored Iran when he thanked the countries that helped stop the fighting. Parliament Speaker Berri reiterated Iranian assistance in achieving the ceasefire and his opposition to direct negotiations; Thousands of displaced civilians returned to south Lebanon despite warnings from the IDF and the Lebanese army, while residents of the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia admitted they were still afraid to return to their homes for fear of renewed fighting; In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah will continue to represent the ceasefire as a Hezbollah-Iran achievement while attempting to challenge IDF forces maintaining the agreement to be able to accuse Israel of "violating the agreement." At the same time, Hezbollah can be expected to escalate internal criticism against the Lebanese leadership, which will raise the tension in Lebanon between Hezbollah's supporters and opponents. The Lebanese government will try to use the momentum to advance direct talks with Israel and implement the state’s monopoly on weapons, especially applying its sovereignty in south Lebanon to convince the United States to pressure Israel to withdraw to the border.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (March 29 – April 13, 2026)

The IDF forces continued military activity in Lebanon from the air and on the ground, eliminating terrorist commanders and operatives in Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations from the air, including the commander of Hezbollah's southern front. Six IDF soldiers were killed; During the past two weeks Hezbollah issued more than 660 claims of responsibility for attacking IDF forces in south Lebanon and civilian, military and security targets in Israel with rockets, missiles and UAVs. Hezbollah also claimed having launched a cruise missile at an Israeli navy vessel; it reportedly hit a British destroyer; Hezbollah secretary general claimed the capabilities of the "resistance" had surprised Israel, adding that they would continue fighting and would not return to the status quo ante of the current hostilities; Israel and Lebanon agreed to direct talks which will begin with a meeting of the ambassadors of the two countries in the United States under American oversight. Officials in the Lebanese administration demanded a ceasefire before the start of the formal negotiations; The Lebanese government's decision to implement the state's monopoly on weapons throughout Beirut and the announcement of direct negotiations with Israel exacerbated the tension with Hezbollah. The organization opposed talks with Israel and accused the government of acting against the "resistance" instead of fighting alongside it; Iran's leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said the Islamic Republic would continue to support the "resistance," and his senior advisor warned the Lebanese government of "irreversible dangers" if it did not recognize Hezbollah's role; According to the Lebanese ministry of health, more than 2,000 people have been killed since the beginning of the hostilities on March 2, 2026, and more than one million people have been displaced; Syrian authorities announced that they had arrested a Hezbollah-affiliated cell which was planning to attack a rabbi in Damascus.
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Renewal of Hostilities and Negotiations with Israel Increase Tension between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Government

On March 2, 2026, Hezbollah’s renewal of the hostilities against Israel hardened the position of the Lebanese leadership, which accused Hezbollah of dragging the country into unwanted confrontations. The government took measures against Hezbollah and Iran, declaring Hezbollah’s military wing illegal, expelling the Iranian ambassador and all representatives of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps present in Lebanon, and implementing the state’s monopoly on weapons throughout Beirut; In an attempt to end the hostilities, Lebanese President Aoun presented an initiative for direct talks with Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu signaled his approval and the talks are expected to be conducted by Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors under American mediation; Hezbollah accused the government of acting against the "resistance" instead of joining it to fight Israel and strongly opposed talks with Israel, which were described as "surrender." The organization warned of a "popular tsunami" against the government and demanded it apologize to the "resistance" and rescind the "negative orders." Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets accused the president and the prime minister of betrayal; Hezbollah and Amal jointly called on their supporters not to hold mass demonstrations in order to preserve civil peace, and Arab and European countries reportedly warned Parliament Speaker and Amal leader Nabih Berri that any attempt to storm the government or carry out a coup would be met with a harsh response; In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah's status in Lebanon is challenged by continued military pressure from Israel despite the ceasefire in the war in Iran and by the measures taken by the Lebanese regime to establish its governance throughout the country, including disarming the organization. The opening of direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon is a severe blow to Hezbollah’s status, possibly leading the organization to undermine the government’s stability by having its ministers resign and shifting to protests in the streets. However, attacking political figures or attempting to take over state institutions could further isolate Hezbollah within Lebanon and drag the country into an internal conflict.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (March 25-30, 2026)

The Majles speaker praised the participation of components of the “Axis of Resistance,” led by Hezbollah, in the campaign between Iran, the United States, and Israel; The Houthis joined the campaign alongside Iran, claiming responsibility for two attacks against targets in southern Israel using missiles and drones, for the first time since halting their activity following the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip in October 2025. A ballistic missile, a cruise missile, and a drone were reportedly launched. The IDF Spokesperson announced the interception of two drones; Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq continued attacks using missiles, rockets, and drones against American bases and facilities in Iraq, the Gulf states, and Jordan, at the same time with continued attacks attributed to the United States against Popular Mobilization bases in Iraq; The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman made clear that Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon would remain in Beirut and continue his duties, despite the Lebanese Foreign Ministry's deadline for his departure; The Iranian foreign minister spoke with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and discussed developments in the war in Iran and Lebanon; Amid activity by Iraqi militias alongside Iran, the Iranian president spoke with his Iraqi counterpart and condemned US and Israeli attacks on Iraqi targets.
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Spotlight on Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (March 24-30, 2026)

IDF forces continued operations to locate terrorists and destroy weapons, infrastructure and assets within the Yellow Line in the Gaza Strip and eliminated terrorist operatives who violated the ceasefire and planned attacks; The Board of Peace's high commissioner, Nikolay Mladenov, said that the first stage of the United States' 20-point plan had largely been completed, adding that the disarmament of Hamas was the only way to move forward toward reconstruction and an Israeli military withdrawal. Hamas and other armed terrorist organizations criticized the Board of Peace's disarmament plan; The Hamas security forces continued attacking "collaborators" and members of Israeli-supported militias; Hamas continued to promote propaganda of humanitarian distress despite the entry of enormous quantities of goods into the Strip; Settler terrorism continued in Judea and Samaria, and reportedly one person was killed by settler gunfire near an illegal outpost; The representative of the Palestinian Authority in France submitted her credentials to President Macron as ambassador of the "State of Palestine." 
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (March 23 – 29, 2026)

IDF forces continued aerial attacks on Hezbollah terrorist targets across Lebanon and eliminated commanders and operatives in the organization, among them the veteran al-Manar correspondent Ali Shoeib, as well as operatives with ties to Iran. IDF forces also continued ground activity in south Lebanon, locating and destroying weapons, terrorist infrastructure and other assets which had been hidden in civilian structures. Two civilians and three IDF soldiers were killed; Hezbollah issued 397 claims of responsibility for attacks on civilian, military and security targets in Israel and on IDF forces in south Lebanon using rockets, missiles, and UAVs, with a record number of 96 claims in a single day. So far, 1,004 claims have been made since the beginning of the attacks. Sources in the organization admitted that at least 400 operatives had been killed since the beginning of the war. Hezbollah's offensive effort focuses primarily on attacking IDF forces in south Lebanon and attacking northern Israeli communities; Hezbollah secretary general, Na'im Qassem, and other senior figures in the organization called for national unity even as they continued to demand the cancellation of the decisions made against Hezbollah and opposed negotiations with Israel. The editor of Hezbollah-affiliated daily al-Akhbar called for the overthrow of the government; Lebanon's president, Joseph Aoun, continued to promote his initiative for direct talks with Israel, but without progress. An Egyptian delegation met with Hezbollah representatives and presented its own initiative, but according to the organization "now is the time for the battlefield"; The decision of the Lebanese foreign ministry to expel Iran's ambassador angered Hezbollah and Amal, which called on the Iranian diplomat to remain in Lebanon, while Hezbollah's opponents welcomed the move and demanded Iran pay for the damages of the war with Israel. An Iranian missile exploded north of Beirut shortly after the decision to expel the ambassador; The Lebanese ministry of health reported that about 1,200 people had been killed since the beginning of the war; Kuwait announced it had uncovered a Hezbollah terrorist network which planned assassinations and attacks on symbols of the state.
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