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Lebanon

Spotlight on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (June 17 – 24, 2025)

IDF forces continued extensive aerial and ground attacks against targets belonging to Hamas and the other terrorist organizations operating in the Gaza Strip, eliminating terrorist operatives, including the head of finances of the Hamas military wing. An IDF soldier was killed in the fighting in the southern Gaza Strip; Hamas denied reports of progress in the negotiations for a ceasefire and the release of the hostages, and reiterated its demand for international guarantees to end the fighting; The Gaza Humanitarian Fund continued its daily distribution of food packages, despite Hamas claims of deliberate gunfire attacking Gazans arriving at aid centers and alleged Israeli abduction attempts. A local clan announced the establishment of a force to secure the aid trucks; Following reports that Israel had formulated a secret plan to eliminate the Hamas leadership abroad, the movement increased its precautionary measures; A letter sent by the head of the Hamas military wing to the Houthi chief of staff was published, despite reports that a new Hamas military- commander would only be appointed to replace Muhammad al-Sinwar after a ceasefire had been declared or at the end of the war; A Hamas delegation visited Russia, and a Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine delegation met with the Egyptian minister of intelligence; Israeli security forces continued extensive counterterrorism activities in Judea and Samaria, focusing on the Balata refugee camp in Nablus; The United States Supreme Court approved a law allowing families of victims of terrorist attacks to sue the Palestinian Authority and the PLO.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (June 16–23, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah weapons in south Lebanon and eliminated organization operatives as part of ongoing action against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon, contrary to the understandings of the ceasefire agreement, and against the organization's renewed efforts to rebuild its military capabilities; Thomas Burke, United States special envoy for Syria, was appointed temporary envoy to Lebanon and met in Beirut with government officials who reiterated the need to end the Israeli "aggression and occupation." Burke urged them to advance the issue of dismantling the "resistance’s" weapons; Hezbollah continued to express support for Iran in the Israel-Iran War and condemned the threats against Iran's leader, Ali Khamenei, and the American attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. According to Hezbollah, Iran is capable of handling matters on its own, but the organization did not rule out the possibility that it might actively intervene if circumstances changed. Lebanese officials expressed confidence that the country would not be drawn into the military confrontation; In Lebanon, the PLO was blamed for the delay in weapons’ collection in the Palestinian refugee camps. Prime Minister Salam urged Palestinian Authority chairman, Mahmoud Abbas, to act on the understandings which had been reached on the issue.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (June 11—18, 2025)

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a preemptive attack in Iran, which includes attacks against dozens of military and security targets, government targets, and nuclear facilities. Senior Iranian regime officials accuse Israel of committing “crimes” and continue to threaten that Israel will continue to pay a “heavy price” for its ongoing attacks; Before the Israeli attack, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met with the deputy secretary-general of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), Jamil Mazhar, and emphasized Iran’s support for the Palestinian people; The commander of the IRGC’s Qods Force, Esmail Qaani, declared that despite the efforts to weaken Hezbollah and the other “resistance forces,” they continue to stand firm, the “resistance” would continue, and the final victory would belong to the believers; The Houthis claimed they had carried out attacks against targets in Israel in coordination with the Iranians and threatened to act against any country that attacks Iran. The IDF Spokesperson reported one missile launched from Yemen that fell in the Hebron area, injuring three people, and another missile that disintegrated on its way to Israel; The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq warned they would act against American interests if the United States joined the fight against Iran alongside Israel.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (June 9 – 16, 2025)

IDF forces continued counteracting Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon in violation of the ceasefire agreement and against the organization's renewed efforts to rebuild its military capabilities; Senior Hezbollah figures and Lebanese government officials again called on the international community to exert pressure on Israel to end its "violations" of the ceasefire. A senior Hezbollah figure claimed they did not expect Lebanon to launch a military conflict due to its weakness vis-à-vis Israel; The Lebanese army searched a building in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia in coordination with the ceasefire supervision committee after having been given information by Israel about the presence of weapons; A disagreement was reported within the Lebanese leadership regarding the toughening of UNIFIL's mandate, which is expected to end in August 2025. Hezbollah claimed they supported extending the mandate; The Lebanese leadership condemned an incident in which a resident in south Lebanon was filmed hitting a UNIFIL soldier. The UNIFIL spokesman stressed the agency's right to conduct patrols without an escort of Lebanese army forces; The Lebanese prime minister said the country had regained control of Beirut's international airport and was waging a fight against smuggling. The American ambassador to Lebanon has reportedly expressed dissatisfaction with the authorities' handling of the issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament; Disarming the Palestinian refugee camps has been postponed because of the Israel-Iran War and Internal-Palestinian disputes.
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“Resistance Axis” Reactions to the Israel-Iran Military Conflict

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a preemptive attack in Iran on dozens of military and security targets and sites of the nuclear program across Iran. More than 20 senior figures in the security leadership, military commanders and nuclear scientists were eliminated, including the commander of the armed forces and the commander of the Revolutionary Guards; Iran confirmed the deaths of the senior officials. Regime officials threatened that "the Zionist regime" would pay a "steep price," and the Revolutionary Guards launched Operation True Promise 3, attacking Israel with UAVs and ballistic missiles; Members of the "resistance axis" condemned Israel, accused it of "crossing red lines," and expressed solidarity with Iran;  According to reports, the Lebanese government conveyed a message to Hezbollah that it alone decided whether or not to go to war. A senior Hezbollah figure said the organization was satisfied with issuing a condemnation and did not plan to respond militarily against Israel; The Houthis claimed that they had attacked targets in Israel in coordination with the Iranians; The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq condemned Israel for violating Iraqi airspace during the attacks on Iran and threatened to take action against American interests if the United States joined the fighting alongside Israel. It was reported that the Iraqi prime minister conveyed messages to the militia leaders that he would act against them if they intervened in the war; Iran built the military capabilities of the Hezbollah-led "resistance axis" as a deterrent against Israel and as part of its response capabilities in the event of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. The responses of the organizations were limited to condemnations, indicating the "resistance axis" had been weakened by Israel during the fighting in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon since October 7, 2023. In ITIC assessment, in light of the strategic changes in the Middle East, Hezbollah is currently restrained and the Lebanese government has, for now, successfully imposed its will on the organization. The Shi'ite militias in Iraq are also reluctant to intervene because of pressure from the Iraqi government. Therefore, at this stage, the "resistance axis" organizations, except the Houthis, will most likely not join the fighting. However, active American involvement alongside Israel could lead to an active response by the "resistance axis," especially in Iraq.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (June 4-11, 2025)

Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei reiterated his call for cooperation among Islamic countries in support of the Palestinians and resistance to Israel. In a statement on the occasion of the pilgrimage to Mecca, Khamenei called for taking advantage of the growing hostility in the world toward Israel to help the Palestinian people; Iran and the Houthis condemned the American veto of the Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, as well as the IDF’s takeover of the ship Madleen, which was en route to Gaza' A delegation headed by the deputy secretary-general of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) visited Tehran and met with the Iranian foreign minister, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, and the IRGC commander. They all stressed Iran’s support for the Palestinians and the “Palestinian resistance.”; As part of his visit to Beirut, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Hezbollah secretary-general Naim Qassem. The minister noted that Tehran supports Hezbollah but stressed that the issue of disarming the organization is an internal Lebanese matter that should be regulated between the Lebanese government and the various forces in the country; Iran condemned the Israeli attacks on the Dahiyeh in Beirut and the Israeli attacks in Syria and called for international intervention to stop them; The Houthis claimed responsibility for three attacks using ballistic missiles and drones against Ben Gurion Airport. The IDF Spokesperson reported two cases of intercepting a ballistic missile launched from Yemen and the interception of a drone. The Israeli Navy carried out its first attack against the port of al-Hudaydah; It was reported that the Houthis are planning to attack Israel with new weapons, including missiles with “cluster warheads.”; The commander of the US Central Command said that IRGC operatives are still in Yemen and are helping the Houthis assemble weapons. Sources reported that the Houthis are also being assisted by China for their weapons buildup; The leader of a pro-Iranian Iraqi militia condemned the “silence of the world” in the face of “the crimes of Israel and the United States” and threatened that “patience has run out.”
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