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Lebanon

Spotlight on Iran (August 7 – 14 , 2024)

Senior Iranian officials continued to threaten a harsh response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. They stressed Iran’s right to attack Israel despite political messages to Tehran to refrain from a direct attack on Israel. At the same time, it seems that the Iranian leadership continues to hesitate about the desired response, especially due to concerns of deterioration into a direct, unwanted military confrontation with Israel, and possibly even with the United States; Senior Iranian officials sent congratulatory letters to Yahya Sinwar following his appointment as head of Hamas’ political bureau, calling on him to continue the path of “resistance” against Israel; Pro-Iranian militias attacked two American bases in Syria last week. The US Department of Defense confirmed that eight US soldiers had been wounded.; The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks against a cargo ship and two American destroyers in the Gulf of Aden. The claims have not been verified. The Houthi leader continued to threaten retaliation for the Israeli attack on the port of al-Hudaydah, noting that the response of the “axis of resistance” against Israel was delayed for tactical reasons; The US military has destroyed a “significant amount” of Houthi capabilities since the start of operations against the Houthis in November 2023.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (August 5-12 , 2024)

During the past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 59 attacks on military and civilian targets in northern Israel. A civilian was killed and 14 were injured by the interception of a Hezbollah UAV launched at the Western Galilee; Israeli Air Force aircraft attacked Hezbollah targets and operatives in south Lebanon. Hezbollah announced 14 operatives had been killed. A senior commander in Hamas' military wing was eliminated in Sidon; The Hezbollah secretary general threatened harsh retaliation for the killing of Fuad Shukr, the organization's military commander. He stated that Hezbollah would act alone or in conjunction with the "resistance axis"; A Lebanese government position paper called for an immediate ceasefire and the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 by means of deploying the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL in the south of the country; Syria: A Hezbollah missile warehouse near the al-Shayrat military airport was hit in an attack attributed to Israel; Classified documents revealed direct ties between the head of the recently closed Hamburg Islamic Center and Iran and Hezbollah; A Lebanese-Colombian citizen who was on the United States sanctions list for aiding Hezbollah was arrested in Colombia.
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Spotlight on Iran (July 31—August 7 , 2024)

During the past week, senior Iranian officials continued to threaten a harsh response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’ political bureau, in Tehran. At the same time, Iran held intensive diplomatic contacts, in which it stressed its right to attack Israel in response to Haniyeh’s killing. The acting Iranian foreign minister met in Hamas’ office in Tehran with the Hamas representative in Iran and stressed that Iran intended to respond decisively to the attack on Haniyeh; Amid Iranian threats of retaliation against Israel, the secretary of Russia’s National Security Council visited Iran and met with the president, the secretary of the National Security Council, and the chief of staff of the armed forces. Russia has reportedly begun transferring air defense systems to Iran; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq and the Houthis continued talks with Iran and other members of the “axis of resistance” to coordinate the joint response against Israel following the killing of Fuad Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh; “Security sources” confirmed that a Houthi officer responsible for coordination with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq had been killed along with four Iraqi militia members in the US attack on a Popular Mobilization headquarters; Rockets were fired at an American base in western Iraq, wounding five American soldiers and two defense contractors. A pro-Iranian militia claimed responsibility for the attack; The Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on a vessel in the Gulf of Aden. The claim has not been verified. The Houthis shot down a US drone, the seventh since the beginning of the conflict in October 2023.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (July 29 – August 5 , 2024)

During the past week, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 43 attacks on military and civilian targets in northern Israel, including communities attacked for the first time since the beginning of the war. A civilian was killed, an officer and an IDF soldier were injured; Israeli Air Force aircraft attacked Hezbollah targets and operatives in south Lebanon and the Lebanon Valley. Hezbollah announced the death of eight operatives, including its senior military commander, Fuad Shukr, who was killed in an airstrike on the southern quarter of Beirut; Hezbollah continued making preparations to retaliate against Israel for Fuad Shukr's death; The prime minister of Lebanon's interim government accused Israel of violating Lebanese sovereignty; Syria: Attacks on a Hezbollah-controlled airport near Homs and a truck convoy on the Syria-Lebanon border were attributed to Israel. According to reports, Hezbollah opened a new UAV factory in the Homs region. According to assessments, Syria will directly join the conflict against Israel only if Hezbollah is broadly attacked.
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Reactions to the Deaths of Fuad Shukr and Isma’il Haniyeh

In the southern suburb of Beirut on July 30, 2024, the IDF eliminated Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah's most senior military commander. The attack was carried out in response to a rocket fired by Hezbollah which hit the Druze village of Majdal Shams and killed 12 children and teenagers. Hezbollah confirmed the death of Shukr, stating that he was one of Hezbollah's founders and had led its military operations against Israel. Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah stated that a new phase in the war had begun, claiming that revenge would; On July 31, 2024, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and Hamas announced that Isma'il Haniyeh, head of Hamas' political bureau, had been killed in an attack on the building where he was staying in Tehran, having come to participate in the swearing-in of Masoud Pezeshkian, the new Iranian president. They claimed Israel was behind the attack. Israel did not claim responsibility. Hamas' military wing has threatened to retaliate. The Palestinian Authority (PA) and other Palestinian organizations issued; Iran's leaders made it clear that they would respond to Haniyeh's killing in Tehran; The "resistance axis" condemned Israel's elimination of Shukr in Beirut and the killing of Haniyeh in Tehran, and threatened to retaliate against Israel and the United States; there were condemnations in the Arab-Muslim world, concern of escalation was expressed in the international arena; In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah's response can be expected to exceed the parameters and the self-determined "equations" according to which it has operated from the beginning of the fighting. Hezbollah will most likely employ concentrated firepower, including the use of missiles and UAVs to attack military and civilian sites in northern Israel which so far have not been its targets, increasing the range of attacks on Israeli territory, possibly as far as the center of the country. Iran can also be expected to attack Israel with missiles and UAVs. Hamas will try to increase terrorist activity in Judea and Samaria and attack inside Israeli territory as well. In the short term, the elimination of Haniyeh may also affect efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip and to release the hostages.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (July 22 – 29, 2024)

During the past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 50 attacks on military and civilian targets in northern Israel. Twelve children and adolescents were killed and more than 40 people were injured when a rocket hit a soccer field in Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights. An IDF soldier and two civilians were injured in other attacks. Hezbollah continued to attack communities it had not previously attacked in northern Israel and increased its attacks on Israeli Air Force planes in the skies over south Lebanon; Israeli Air Force aircraft attacked Hezbollah targets and operatives in south Lebanon and the Lebanon Valley. Hezbollah announced that ten of its operatives were killed in attacks. The Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party announced the death of an activist; Hezbollah continued waging a battle for hearts and minds in preparation for an all-out war; The criticism of Hezbollah in Lebanon continues.; According to the Lebanese ministry of health, 490 people have been killed in Lebanon since the fighting began on October 8, 2023. A BBC investigation found that more than 60% of the Lebanese settlements in the border area were attacked and that 55 square kilometers in the Galilee and the Golan Heights had been burned by deliberate Hezbollah arson attacks.
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