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Lebanon

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (January 27- February 4, 2026)

Iran’s foreign minister said Iran supports ending the Israeli occupation in Syria. A militia operating in southern Syria warned against the Israeli presence there. The Houthis condemned the Israeli “aggression” in the Gaza Strip, warning it could lead to a regional confrontation.
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Threats by Axis of Resistance Organizations amid Tensions between the United States and Iran

Amid the wave of protests in Iran and the exchange of threats between Iran, the United States, and Israel, members of the Axis of Resistance issued statements and threats of their own. Reports also indicate that some are preparing for a possible confrontation. The scope and intensity of their responses will depend, among other factors, on the nature of any US attack and the targets struck. However, the considerations guiding the Axis members are not uniform.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (January 26 – February 2, 2026)

Hezbollah is ambiguous regarding its possible involvement in a regional confrontation with Iran, but hinted it was making preparations should one break out. There are reports of internal power struggles and tensions in Hezbollah’s upper echelons as the leadership reorganizes. Hostile Hezbollah activity in Syria was uncovered.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (January 21-28, 2026)

The Palestinian ambassador in Tehran said that Tehran has provided Palestine with unconditional moral and political support; An Iranian researcher claimed on a television program that Israel is destined to be destroyed as a political entity prior to the reappearance of the Twelfth Shiite Imam (the Mahdi); Iran’s embassy in Lebanon strongly condemned the IDF strikes in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley, claiming they strengthen the Lebanese people’s determination to “resist”; Reports indicated that Iran’s Supreme Leader welcomed the nomination of Nouri al‑Maliki for the formation of the new government in Baghdad. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson claimed that Tehran does not interfere in Iraq’s internal political affairs; The secretary-general of the Iraqi Harakat al‑Nujaba movement opposed efforts to disarm the pro‑Iranian militias, claiming that the “resistance’s weapons are ideological and disciplined”; The Houthis and the pro‑Iranian militias in Iraq escalated their threats to strike American and Israeli targets in the event of an attack against Iran.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (January 20-26, 2026)

The IDF continued attacking Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon and the Beqa'a Valley to enforce the November 2024 ceasefire agreement and prevent the organization's renewed military build-up. In south Lebanon and the Beqa'a Valley the forces attacked crossings on the Lebanon-Syria border used to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah, weapons depots and a facility of the Radwan Force. In addition, four Hezbollah operatives were eliminated, including the head of a weapons-smuggling network; Hezbollah continued to spread its propaganda narrative of steadfastness and sacrifice in the confrontation with Israel and the United States and the religious and ideological "legitimacy" of the weapons of the "resistance," and called on the state to secure the release of Lebanese prisoners held by Israel; The future of the committee overseeing implementation of the ceasefire agreement remains uncertain. Given reports of American and Israeli attempts to shift the focus to the political level with direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, and hold meetings at a United States base in Miami, the Lebanese government made it clear it was not prepared to make changes. The head of Lebanon's civilian delegation to the talks said if he received a mandate from the Lebanese leadership to conduct political talks with Israel, he wanted them held in Tel Aviv; Contacts are reportedly taking place with Hezbollah for a compromise on the issue of disarming north of the Litani River, despite the organization's continuing opposition to pressure that would lead to disarmament or a reduction of weapons; Lebanese judicial authorities initiated proceedings against Hezbollah supporters for insulting President Aoun amid growing criticism from the organization and claims that Lebanese establishment actions harmed the Shi'ite community; Qatar reportedly said it was prepared to rebuild three destroyed villages in south Lebanon under the supervision of an American company.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (January 12-20, 2026)

This past week the IDF continued attacking Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon and the Beqa'a Valley to enforce the ceasefire agreement of November 2024 and to prevent the organization’s renewed military buildup. A Hezbollah operative was eliminated, and the forces attacked Hezbollah weapons depots, training camps, launch sites and military facilities in south Lebanon and the Beqa'a Valley; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem warned that the organization’s patience was running out in view of the continued Israeli "aggression." He accused Lebanese state institutions of failing to do their duty and claimed that Lebanon had lost its sovereignty; While the Lebanese army continues preparations for the phase of the plan for the state’s monopoly on weapons north of the Litani River, secretary general Na'im Qassem remained defiant and intransigent, absolutely refusing to disarm the "resistance," arguing that only it could prevent Israel from taking over the entire country. According to reports, Hezbollah is no longer cooperating with the Lebanese army and is preventing forces from reaching sites which were attacked; The president of Lebanon stated that the government’s decision regarding the state monopoly of weapons was an achievement in Lebanon unprecedented during the past 40 years, adding that Lebanon was committed to the ceasefire agreement, despite the difficulties and Israel’s actions; The Lebanese foreign minister said Hezbollah’s weapons no longer protected the state but had become a burden, provoking the anger of senior organization figures who accused him of working against Lebanese interests and called for measures to be taken against him; Hezbollah expressed support for the Iranian regime and claimed that "American and Israeli agents were escalating the violence in the Islamic Republic. Reportedly, within the circle of the Lebanese president, there are doubts regarding the extent of Hezbollah’s commitment to non-involvement in the event of an American-Israeli attack on Iran.
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