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The Israel-Lebanon Framework Agreement: Insights and Responses

On June 26, 2026, at the conclusion of the fifth round of direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel in the United States, the ambassadors of the two countries signed a framework agreement in the presence of the United States secretary of state. Its main provisions are: Mutual recognition by each state of the other's sovereignty and a commitment to continue negotiations to end the state of war and establish peace, gradual Israeli withdrawal from pilot areas in south Lebanon, into which the Lebanese army will enter to dismantle all non-state armed groups and enforce the state's sovereignty. The IDF withdrawal will be completed only after the dismantling of the groups and their infrastructure has been officially verified; Hezbollah and its allies rejected the framework agreement outright, claiming it was "surrender," undermined Lebanon's sovereignty and could lead to civil war; Hezbollah's opponents praised the agreement and said they were confident it would reduce Hezbollah and Iran's influence over decision-making in the country; In Amit Institute assessment, the signing of the framework agreement marks a turning point in the Lebanese arena, since for the first time the Lebanese leadership has presented a political framework linking an Israeli withdrawal to the expansion of state sovereignty and the disarmament of Hezbollah; The framework agreement will be tested by Lebanon's ability to put into practice the provisions concerning the state's control over the country's security. The Lebanese government faces the challenge of asserting its authority without sliding into a violent confrontation with the Shi'ite camp. Hezbollah faces the challenges of preserving its status as the leading extra-state military and political force and of preventing Iran from being pushed out of Lebanon. 
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (June 17—24, 2026)

Senior Iranian officials reiterated warnings that continued IDF attacks in Lebanon would jeopardize the memorandum of understanding with the United States, harming negotiations and the attainment of a final agreement; The Iranian foreign minister spoke with a senior Hamas official, noting that his country is raising the issue of “Israeli violations” in the Gaza Strip during negotiations with the United States; The commander of the Qods Force warned Israel against a renewed escalation in the Gaza Strip; The IRGC reportedly established several small cells in Iraq, which carried out drone attacks against Gulf States during the war; The Houthis emphasized their continued stance alongside the Palestinians and warned that the “Axis of Resistance” would not remain silent in the face of an Israeli escalation in Lebanon.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (June 15-22, 2026)

The inclusion of the ceasefire in Lebanon within the memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Iran and the United States was welcomed by Hezbollah, which noted Iran's commitment to defending Lebanon, while Lebanon's president and prime minister noted their commitment to continuing direct negotiations with Israel, which are expected to resume on June 23, 2026; The IDF continued operations in the security zone in south Lebanon and exposed Hezbollah underground facilities. In response to ceasefire violations, the IDF carried out extensive strikes on Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon and the Beqa'a Valley, although beginning on June 21, 2026, the forces halted their strikes. Six IDF soldiers were killed in the fighting in south Lebanon; Hezbollah issued five claims of responsibility for attacks on IDF forces in south Lebanon, claiming ceasefire "violations" and attempting to prevent the advance of forces on the Ali al-Taher Ridge. Hezbollah also halted its attacks beginning on June 21, 2026; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem said the organization had adapted its methods of warfare following the lessons learned from the previous hostilities against Israel and said "the project to eliminate Hezbollah has collapsed."; Lebanese President Aoun instructed the Lebanese delegation to the talks with Israel to demand a ceasefire and an Israeli withdrawal from several areas as a precondition for any agreements. Hezbollah reiterated its position that the negotiations were intended to undermine Lebanon's sovereignty and the role of the "resistance."; The Lebanese minister of justice requested that the prosecution investigate the activities of al-Qard al-Hassan, Hezbollah's financial arm.
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The American-Iran Memorandum of Understanding: Ceasefire in Lebanon and the Reactions of the Resistance Axis

According to the memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Iran and the United States, both countries and their allies will cease military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and Lebanon's territorial integrity and sovereignty will be guaranteed. With the start of direct negotiations between the United States and Iran on the final agreement, a "de-escalation" cell in Lebanon was agreed on, without Israeli participation; Hezbollah praised the MOU, representing it as an expression of Iran's commitment to defending the country and ensuring the continuation of Hezbollah's activities in Lebanon; Lebanese President and Prime Minister felt obligated to welcome Iran's insistence on including the issue of a ceasefire in Lebanon in the MOU, but said their commitment to the direct talks with Israel as the primary way to ensure the country's stability; In Amit Institute assessment, the MOU provided a following wind for Hezbollah's senior leadership, given their perception that Iran could enforce its positions on the United States by leveraging the Strait of Hormuz. The demand for a full Israeli withdrawal, together with the absence of any mention of Hezbollah or a demand for its disarmament provided the organization's leadership with a tool for continuing its campaign against the government in Beirut, which seeks to reduce Hezbollah's influence. Meanwhile the determination of President Aoun and Prime Minister Salam to advance negotiations with Israel, along with American backing for the position, is expected to continue fueling tensions in Lebanon's internal political arena, and to motivate Iran to use the leverage it now possesses over the United States to advance Hezbollah's interests in Lebanon.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (June 10—17, 2026)

Senior Iranian officials stressed that the ceasefire in Lebanon and an Israeli withdrawal constitute a central and inseparable part of the memorandum of understanding reached between Iran and the United States to end the war, and that failure to fulfill these demands would be considered a violation; Following the signing of the memorandum of understanding with the United States, the Iranian foreign minister held talks with the Lebanese president and the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, briefing them on its details. The speaker of the Iranian Majles also spoke with his Lebanese counterpart; Prior to the completion of the memorandum of understanding, senior Iranian officials threatened another missile attack against Israel in response to the IDF strike in Beirut; It was reported that senior Iranian military officials continue to operate in Lebanon and are involved in commanding Hezbollah and transferring Iranian aid to the organization; The commander of the Qods Force spoke at length about the conduct of the “Axis of Resistance” during the war, clarifying that the additional fronts came to Iran’s aid on their own initiative without being asked, as they knew it was their duty; The Houthis condemned the president of Somaliland’s visit to Israel; The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq mourned senior Hezbollah official Mussa Ali Daqduq, who was eliminated in southern Lebanon, and emphasized his contribution to the “resistance against the American occupier” in Iraq; The “Islamic Resistance Front in Syria” criticized the statement made by the Israeli defense minister that the IDF would not withdraw from the “security zone” in southern Syria.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (June 8-15, 2026)

The United States and Iran formulated a memorandum of understanding on ending military activity, which apparently also includes a ceasefire in Lebanon. Lebanese began returning to the villages of south Lebanon despite warnings from the Lebanese army and Hezbollah; The IDF continued to expand its activity north of the forward defense zone in south Lebanon, along with airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon, in the Beqa'a Valley and on a Hezbollah headquarters in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia. The forces eliminated Hezbollah terrorists and field commanders, including the holder of the Golan Portfolio; Hezbollah issued 130 claims of responsibility for attacks using explosive drones, UAVs, rockets and other weapons. According to the organization, all the attacks targeted IDF forces in south Lebanon but several UAVs fell inside Israeli territory; Lebanese President and Prime Minister reiterated that direct negotiations with Israel were the only way to end the conflict and strengthen state sovereignty; Hezbollah continued to oppose direct negotiations with Israel, while Parliament Speaker and Amal leader Berri mediates between Hezbollah, state authorities and international actors; Hezbollah is combating the erosion of its Shi’ite support base by strengthening the "resistance" narrative.
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