Lebanon

Since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023, the participation of the Houthis in the "resistance axis" has been limited to direct UAV and missile attacks on Israeli targets, especially in the south of the country. The most significant was the Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv on July 19, 2024, to which Israel responded with an Israeli Air Force attack on the Yemeni port in the city of al-Hudaydah the following day; In recent weeks, the Houthis have increased their overt threats to attack Israel, including ground attacks. They also held military exercises simulating infiltrating through tunnels, taking control of Israeli military bases and abducting soldiers. According to reports, Houthi fighters have arrived in Syria and are overseen by the pro-Iranian militias; In ITIC assessment, the Houthis do in fact aspire to carry out a ground attack, partially as a response to Israel's attack on al-Hudaydah. Collaboration with Iran and the other "resistance axis" partners, led by the militias in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon, enables the Houthis to overcome the great geographical distance between Yemen and Israel and move fighters close to the Israeli border for a limited direct ground attack on Israeli territory. They may try to infiltrate an Israeli civilian community or a military base, as they did in the simulations in Yemen, or participate actively as a Hezbollah auxiliary force should there be significant escalation in the fighting in the north. They would also continue their attempts to attack targets in Israeli territory with missiles or drones, as they have done since the beginning of the war. Read more...

On October 8, 2023, following the Hamas terrorist attack and massacre carried out the previous day, Hezbollah opened a front against Israel from Lebanon "in support of the Gaza Strip." Since the beginning of the fighting, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Amal, al-Jama'ah al-Islamiyya, the Lebanese Resistance Brigades and the Syrian Social-Nationalist Party have joined Hezbollah in the fighting, to a greater or lesser degree; Unlike Hezbollah, which has so far claimed responsibility for more than 2,200 attacks, the auxiliary organizations have claimed responsibility for "only" a few dozens. Most were rocket fire targeting military and civilian sites in northern Israel, along with attempts to penetrate the border and exchanges of fire with IDF forces; Although there are ideological and religious differences between Hezbollah and most of the other organizations, they have been cooperating since the days of the Israeli presence in south Lebanon and the Second Lebanon War; In ITIC assessment, the auxiliary organizations' operations are fully coordinated with Hezbollah, and sometimes the operate in concert. As long as the fighting between Israel and Lebanon is waged within the framework of the so-called "equations," Hezbollah can be expected to limit the organizations' activities. However, in the event of further escalation and an all-out war, Hezbollah will most likely loosen the reins and give them more freedom to attack Israeli territory, IDF forces and civilians. Read more...