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Lebanon

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (February 9-16, 2026)

In south Lebanon the IDF continued attacking Hezbollah targets and eliminated two of the organization's terrorist operatives, part of enforcing the ceasefire agreement from November 2024 and preventing Hezbollah's renewed military-terrorist build-up. Several terrorist operatives from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) were eliminated in the Beqa'a Valley near the border with Syria; Hezbollah continued criticizing the Lebanese regime because of the ongoing Israeli attacks and the plan to disarm the organization. The organization's secretary general, Na'im Qassem, called on the government not to yield to Western pressure and to rely on the capabilities of the "resistance."; Lebanon's prime minister and army commander held meetings with foreign officials in preparation for the international conference to support the Lebanese security forces which will be held in Paris in early March 2026; The commander of the United States Central Command praised the Lebanese army for exposing another giant Hezbollah tunnel in south Lebanon; Hezbollah launched its campaign for the general parliamentary elections to be held this coming spring and agreed with the Amal Movement on full coordination; Hezbollah's secretary general announced that the organization would pay rent for three months for anyone whose house was damaged in the fighting with Israel, however residents in Shi'ite areas protested there was no long-term commitment and raised claims of unequal distribution of payments; The United States Treasury imposed sanctions on a Lebanese company converting Hezbollah's gold reserves into liquid assets for the organization's reconstruction.
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The Reorganization of Hezbollah Leadership and the Resignation of Wafiq Safa

The Israel-Hezbollah War ended in November 2024, and since then Hezbollah has been reorganizing to repair the damage it suffered, including to the top leadership, and to adapt to Na'im Qassem as the new secretary general; Alongside reports of disputes and power struggles between the "pragmatic" figures led by Qassem, and the proponents of an extremist approach, senior organization figures claimed that Hezbollah had recovered and rebuilt the leadership structure, adapting it to the continued Israeli targeted killings as part of enforcement actions, and preparations for a new war; According to reports, at the beginning of February 2026, Hezbollah's leadership accepted the resignation of Wafiq Safa, who had headed the Coordination and Liaison Unit since 1987 and was considered close to Hassan Nasrallah and one of the most prominent and influential figures in the organization's top leadership. Media commentaries opined that he resigned because of his disputes with Qassem, but also noted that the move was part of the secretary general's efforts to reorganize Hezbollah's hierarchy by tightening his control over the organization's media, and political and "security" forces, while relying on figures loyal to himself and with lower media prominence, in order to reduce the risk of being targeted by Israel; In ITIC assessment, the termination of Wafiq Safa's role was intended to stabilize Hezbollah's leadership, reduce the vulnerability of senior figures and consolidate the secretary general's control after the profound shock undergone by the organization. However, concentrating authority in the secretary general's office and weakening veteran power centers may awake latent frictions and undermine internal balances. The success of the move will be partially measured by the organization's ability to preserve cohesion, prevent further intelligence leaks and redefine Hezbollah's relations with the Lebanese state without relinquishing its core principles.
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Rising Tensions between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Government

Since the ceasefire agreement went into effect at the end of November 2024, Hezbollah has criticized Lebanese government institutions, claiming they are not doing enough to stop Israeli "aggression" and "violations" of the agreement; In recent weeks, Hezbollah has become increasingly angry at the intention of the government and the army to continue disarmament north of the Litani River and because a civilian representative was appointed to the talks with Israel. Statements by President Aoun and other Lebanese officials regarding the end of the role of the "resistance" have also angered Hezbollah; Hezbollah, led by secretary general Na'im Qassem, has escalated his rhetoric against the president and the government and accused state institutions of failing to safeguard Lebanon's sovereignty and the Shi'ite community, while stating that the "resistance" will not surrender and is prepared for confrontation. Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets joined the campaign against the government and questioned the legitimacy of President Aoun, accusing him of acting in the interests of the United States and Israel; Attempts were made to reduce tensions, including meetings between President Aoun and his aides and members of the Hezbollah faction in the Lebanese Parliament; In ITIC assessment, Lebanon is in transition from managed political tension to an open and prolonged struggle. As long as no significant regional change occurs, especially regarding Iran, in all probably friction and tension will continue. The government will proceed cautiously in extending its authority north of the Litani River, and Hezbollah will block measures perceived as attacking the core of its power, without letting the situation deteriorate into a broad internal Lebanese crisis. 
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (February 4-11, 2026)

The Iranian foreign minister accused Israel, in a speech at the Al Jazeera Forum in Qatar, of committing “war crimes” in the Gaza Strip. He called for practical action by the international community against Israel and for coordination among Islamic countries, Arab states, and Global South countries in support of the Palestinians; At least six senior Iranian diplomats reportedly used their passports to transfer hundreds of millions of dollars to Hezbollah. One of the diplomats also accompanied the Iranian foreign minister during his recent visit to Beirut in January 2026; The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson accused Israel of using “toxic and chemical substances” in southern Lebanon; In a letter of condolence following the death of the father of former Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, a senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader emphasized the importance of the “resistance” in Lebanon and Iran’s continued support for it; The Iranian foreign minister stated that Iran supports Hezbollah but does not need it to defend itself against the United States and Israel; The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council met, during a visit to Oman, with the spokesman of the Houthis in Yemen; It was reported that the Houthis are in “strategic isolation” as a result of contacts between the United States and Iran and the weakening of Hezbollah, which had supported them over the years; IDF forces exposed a weapons depot belonging to al-Jama'a al-Islamiyya in southern Syria.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (February 2-9, 2026)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon and the Beqa'a Valley to enforce the November 2024 ceasefire agreement and to prevent Hezbollah's renewed military buildup. The IDF detained a senior operative from Hamas-affiliated al-Jama'a al-Islamiyya, the Muslim Brotherhood branch in Lebanon; Hezbollah's secretary general called the confrontation with Israel and the United States part of a regional campaign led by Iran, and argued that political pressure was being exerted to achieve gains which Israel had not achieved militarily; Lebanese Prime Minister visited the border villages in south Lebanon and received a sympathetic welcome; Israel reportedly told Lebanon that it would continue its attacks until Hezbollah had been completely disarmed, and would withdraw IDF forces from positions in south Lebanon only in exchange for a declaration ending the state of hostility between the two countries and the signing of a new security agreement. It was also reported that a secret meeting was held in the United States between senior officers from the Lebanese army and the IDF; Lebanese army Commander visited the United States to present the army's needs and its difficulties in completing missions, especially the state's monopoly on weapons; The Hezbollah leadership accepted Wafiq Safa's resignation as the head of the Liaison and Coordination Unit, an unprecedented step in the organization's security apparatus. He reportedly resigned following serious disputes at the upper echelons of the organization, alongside a reduction of powers and Safa's deviation from Lebanon's line; Tension continues between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government. Senior figures in Lebanon opposed a Hezbollah-Lebanon involvement if a confrontation with Iran developed.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (January 27- February 4, 2026)

Iran’s foreign minister said Iran supports ending the Israeli occupation in Syria. A militia operating in southern Syria warned against the Israeli presence there. The Houthis condemned the Israeli “aggression” in the Gaza Strip, warning it could lead to a regional confrontation.
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