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Lebanon

Spotlight on Iran (August 14-21, 2024)

Senior Iranian officials continued to warn of Iran’s intention to retaliate for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, stressing that there was no direct connection between the negotiations for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the right of Iran to retaliate against Israel. However, it is evident that the Iranian threats of direct military attack against Israel have decreased and that Iran is also examining other response options.; A senior officer in the IRGC’s aerospace arm, who served as an Iranian military advisor in Syria, died of his wounds after apparently being wounded in an airstrike by US-led coalition forces in Syria at the end of July 2024; The Iranian embassy in Lebanon referred to a video released by Hezbollah documenting an underground facility for storing precision missiles and heavy rockets and threatened that Iran also had the ability to attack its enemies from any point in its territory.; Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant issued seizure orders for 18 oil tankers linked to Iran, used to finance the Qods Force and Hezbollah; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced two drone attacks against targets in the Golan Heights and Eilat for the first time since July 24, 2024. The claims have not been verified; Gunmen attacked an oil tanker in the Red Sea. There were reportedly no casualties, but fire broke out and the crew lost control of the tanker; The Houthi leader threatened that the “axis of resistance” would inevitably retaliate against Israel, despite the delays.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (August 12-19 , 2024)

During the past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 54 attacks on military and civilian targets in northern Israel. An IDF soldier was killed and an officer was seriously injured by a drone strike in the Western Galilee. Two IDF soldiers were injured, one seriously, by an UAV hit in the Upper Galilee; Israeli Air Force aircraft attacked Hezbollah targets and operatives in south Lebanon. Hezbollah announced that eight operatives had been killed, including a Radwan Force commander. An operative of Hezbollah's Lebanese Resistance Companies was killed; Senior Hezbollah figures continued to warn that there would be a strong "response" to the killing of Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah's military commander; Hezbollah published a video of an underground facility for storing precision missiles and heavy rockets, and threatened to use them to attack all of Israel in the event of a war; Amos Hochstein, the American envoy, visited Lebanon and met with senior government and military officials in an attempt to prevent escalation amid efforts to reach a cease-fire agreement in the Gaza Strip; Three UNIFIL observers were injured in an explosion near their vehicle in south Lebanon. The UNIFIL spokesman avoided assigning responsibility and called on all parties to act responsibly.
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Internal Lebanese criticism of Hezbollah in the wake of its escalation and the threat of war

Since Hezbollah began attacking Israel on October 8, 2023, there has been internal criticism in Lebanon of the organization's decision to fight against Israel, claiming it was "supporting" the Gaza Strip. The murder of 12 children and teenagers by a rocket fired by Hezbollah at Majdal Shams on July 27, 2024, and its threats to respond "strongly" to Israel's elimination of Fuad Shukr, its military commander, in Beirut on July 31, 2024, increased the Lebanese public's fear that the situation would deteriorate from border fighting in south Lebanon into an all-out war; Public criticism comes mainly from a handful of politicians and media figures, most of them Christians known to oppose Hezbollah. They accuse Hezbollah of acting contrary to the national interest and endangering the lives of the Lebanese by fighting an unnecessary war for the sake of Iran; More sharp criticism against Hezbollah appears on social networks, where posts call the organization "terrorist" and express public support for the death of Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah. Some public criticism has also appeared in the form of signs opposing the war, but no one accepted responsibility for them; Criticism of Hezbollah is also reflected in the reception received by the Shi'ites who fled the Hezbollah stronghold in south Beirut in fear of Israeli attacks; Hassan Nasrallah warned it played into Israel's hands and called on those who did not support the organization "not to stab the 'resistance' in the back." Despite the response, apparently so far the criticism has not had a significant impact on the decisions Hezbollah makes.
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Spotlight on Iran (August 7 – 14 , 2024)

Senior Iranian officials continued to threaten a harsh response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. They stressed Iran’s right to attack Israel despite political messages to Tehran to refrain from a direct attack on Israel. At the same time, it seems that the Iranian leadership continues to hesitate about the desired response, especially due to concerns of deterioration into a direct, unwanted military confrontation with Israel, and possibly even with the United States; Senior Iranian officials sent congratulatory letters to Yahya Sinwar following his appointment as head of Hamas’ political bureau, calling on him to continue the path of “resistance” against Israel; Pro-Iranian militias attacked two American bases in Syria last week. The US Department of Defense confirmed that eight US soldiers had been wounded.; The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks against a cargo ship and two American destroyers in the Gulf of Aden. The claims have not been verified. The Houthi leader continued to threaten retaliation for the Israeli attack on the port of al-Hudaydah, noting that the response of the “axis of resistance” against Israel was delayed for tactical reasons; The US military has destroyed a “significant amount” of Houthi capabilities since the start of operations against the Houthis in November 2023.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (August 5-12 , 2024)

During the past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 59 attacks on military and civilian targets in northern Israel. A civilian was killed and 14 were injured by the interception of a Hezbollah UAV launched at the Western Galilee; Israeli Air Force aircraft attacked Hezbollah targets and operatives in south Lebanon. Hezbollah announced 14 operatives had been killed. A senior commander in Hamas' military wing was eliminated in Sidon; The Hezbollah secretary general threatened harsh retaliation for the killing of Fuad Shukr, the organization's military commander. He stated that Hezbollah would act alone or in conjunction with the "resistance axis"; A Lebanese government position paper called for an immediate ceasefire and the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 by means of deploying the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL in the south of the country; Syria: A Hezbollah missile warehouse near the al-Shayrat military airport was hit in an attack attributed to Israel; Classified documents revealed direct ties between the head of the recently closed Hamburg Islamic Center and Iran and Hezbollah; A Lebanese-Colombian citizen who was on the United States sanctions list for aiding Hezbollah was arrested in Colombia.
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Spotlight on Iran (July 31—August 7 , 2024)

During the past week, senior Iranian officials continued to threaten a harsh response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’ political bureau, in Tehran. At the same time, Iran held intensive diplomatic contacts, in which it stressed its right to attack Israel in response to Haniyeh’s killing. The acting Iranian foreign minister met in Hamas’ office in Tehran with the Hamas representative in Iran and stressed that Iran intended to respond decisively to the attack on Haniyeh; Amid Iranian threats of retaliation against Israel, the secretary of Russia’s National Security Council visited Iran and met with the president, the secretary of the National Security Council, and the chief of staff of the armed forces. Russia has reportedly begun transferring air defense systems to Iran; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq and the Houthis continued talks with Iran and other members of the “axis of resistance” to coordinate the joint response against Israel following the killing of Fuad Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh; “Security sources” confirmed that a Houthi officer responsible for coordination with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq had been killed along with four Iraqi militia members in the US attack on a Popular Mobilization headquarters; Rockets were fired at an American base in western Iraq, wounding five American soldiers and two defense contractors. A pro-Iranian militia claimed responsibility for the attack; The Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on a vessel in the Gulf of Aden. The claim has not been verified. The Houthis shot down a US drone, the seventh since the beginning of the conflict in October 2023.
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