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Lebanon

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah Lebanon (December 9 – 16 ,2024)

The IDF continued to take action against Hezbollah's attempts to violate the ceasefire, attacking Hezbollah operatives, rocket and missile launchers, and terrorist facilities in south Lebanon. For the first time, the Lebanese army was deployed in towns near the border with Israel to implement the agreement; Na'im Qassem, Hezbollah’s secretary general, claimed the organization did not want to violate the ceasefire agreement, despite alleging "hundreds of Israeli violations." He asserted that even if "the resistance" lost sometimes, it remained in place, although with limited capabilities. He also claimed Hezbollah had no intention of disarming north of the Litani River and presented the organization's next steps. Homeowners in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia whose houses were destroyed began receiving annual rent payments; Criticism of Hezbollah: Lebanese Shi'ites filed lawsuits against the organization for hiding weapons in private homes in south Lebanon. A Druze politician close to Hezbollah called for peace with Israel; Najib Mikati, prime minister of the Lebanese interim government, said at least $5 billion would be necessary for reconstructing the country. According to reports, it would cost at least $12 million to clear the rubble from the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia; Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, claimed optimism regarding the election of a new president for Lebanon on January 9, 2025, after more than two years. Hezbollah’s candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, is expected to withdraw from the race, while the army commander, Joseph Aoun, leads the list of candidates.
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Spotlight on Syria (Following the Toppling of the Syrian Regime) – December 2-9 , 2024

On November 27, 2024, armed groups opposed to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad launched an operation against the Syrian army forces and their allies. They took control of Aleppo, Hama, and Homs and on December 8, 2024, they completed the takeover of Damascus. President al-Assad fled the country and received political asylum in Russia. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmad al-Shara (Abu Mohammad al-Julani), who led the military operation, declared victory for the entire Syrian people and accused the Assad regime of turning Syria into a farm for Iranian ambitions; IDF forces took control of the buffer zone in the Golan Heights and took control of the Syrian side of Mount Hermon. Dozens of Israeli army airstrikes were reported against depots of advanced weapons and other capabilities that could fall into the hands of the rebels; Hezbollah secretary-general Naim Qassem announced that the organization would help the Assad regime suppress the “aggression,” but as the rebels advanced, Hezbollah was forced to withdraw its forces from Syria; The Iranian foreign minister claimed that Iran had informed al-Assad about the rebels’ plans to launch a military operation but was surprised by the Syrian army’s inability to respond effectively. Reports indicated that Tehran has established direct channels of communication with some of the opposition groups and expressed its readiness for dialogue with the new leadership; The United States has attacked dozens of ISIS targets in central Syria to prevent the organization from taking advantage of the events in the country to recover.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (December 2 – 9 ,2024)

The IDF attacked Hezbollah operatives, rocket and missile launchers and terrorist facilities across Lebanon in response to ceasefire violations. Four IDF soldiers were killed in the fighting; Hezbollah launched its first rocket since the ceasefire, targeting an IDF post on Mount Dov. Senior Hezbollah figures claimed it was a "warning shot" in response to alleged Israeli violations and threatened to escalate its attacks if the committee overseeing the ceasefire did not stop Israel; Na'im Qassem, Hezbollah secretary general, announced that the organization had begun funding Lebanon's reconstruction with money received from Iran. Hezbollah has reactivated the economic wing of the al-Qard al-Hassan to transfer payments to homeowners whose properties were destroyed; Hezbollah is not officially counting its casualties, with estimates of at least 3,500 operatives killed and at least 10,000 injured. Funerals of Hezbollah operatives have begun in villages in south Lebanon. The date of the funeral of Hassan Nasrallah, former secretary general, has not yet been announced; The Lebanese ministry of health reported that 4,047 people were killed from the beginning of the fighting until the ceasefire on December 3, 2024. The government approved an advance of 4 trillion Lebanese pounds for the removal of debris; The Syrian army officer responsible for Hezbollah affairs was killed in an IDF attack in Damascus. The IDF targeted crossings along the Syria-Lebanon border to prevent the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah.
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The Rebel Attack in Syria: What does it mean for Israel?

On November 27, 2024, armed organizations opposing the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, led by the Islamic-jihadist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression Operation (Rad' al-Udwan) against Syrian army forces and their allies in northwestern Syria. On November 30, 2024, Turkish-sponsored rebel organizations Operation Dawn of Liberation initiated Operation “Dawn of Liberation” (Fajr al-Hurriya) in the Aleppo region, attacking Syrian regime forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-Arab militia supported by the United States. The rebels took control of Aleppo and Hama, as well as military bases, airfields and security facilities operating under the sponsorship of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah; Iran and "resistance axis" organizations expressed support for the Syrian regime, making diplomatic efforts to calm the situation and deploying forces to Syria. Iran also accused the offensive of being an "Israeli-American conspiracy" whose objective was to weaken the "resistance axis." According to the rebels, they wanted to prevent Syrian regime forces from attacking the opposition enclave in northwestern Syria. They also noted that the "resistance axis" focus on fighting Israel and the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces from Syria to Lebanon were key factors in their considerations for initiating the offensive at this time; In ITIC assessment, although the rebels currently focus on fighting Assad's regime and its allies, and Islamic-jihadist takeover of advanced weaponry, including fighter jets, could pose a long-term threat to Israel. In addition, the increasing instability in Syria could trigger a new wave of displaced persons who might also move toward Israel's border. However, the rebels' offensive also poses a threat to Iran and the "resistance axis," which have used Syria as a route for transferring weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon and a location from which to attack Israel. The focus of Iran and the militias on fighting the rebels, who have also taken control of strategically important "resistance axis" sites, may hinder their ability to assist Hezbollah in the reconstruction process after the fighting against Israel.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (November 27 – December 4, 2024)

Iran and the militias of the “axis of resistance” presented the ceasefire in Lebanon as a “great victory” for Hezbollah and the “resistance front” and as a defeat for Israel. According to them, Israel was forced to agree to the ceasefire after it failed to defeat Hezbollah and realize its goals in the war. The militias made it clear that they would continue to operate even though the ceasefire violated the principle of “unity of the arenas"; Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, who was wounded in the Hezbollah pager attack in September 2024, has returned to Beirut. The Iranian foreign minister and the IRGC commander stressed their country’s continued support for Hezbollah; The IRGC deputy commander warned that the residents of Israel should know that the events of the past year would be like a “walk in the park” for them compared to what awaits them in the future; An extensive Iranian cyber operation was uncovered that targeted hundreds of Israeli public figures and senior officials in preparation for an assassination operation; The Houthis claimed responsibility for three joint attacks with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq using drones against three targets in Israel, for the first time since July 2024. The IDF Spokesperson confirmed that three drones that did not penetrate Israeli territory had been intercepted; The militias in Iraq continued to refrain from issuing claims of responsibility for attacks against Israel. A senior member of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq denied that understandings had been reached with the Iraqi government on the cessation of attacks against Israel; The rebel offensive in Syria: A senior Iranian officer was killed in the rebel attack in Syria. Senior Iranian officials claimed that this is an “American-Zionist plot.” Tehran focused on political-diplomatic activity, emphasizing its support for the Syrian regime and its readiness to provide any necessary assistance. It has been reported that the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq have begun moving forces into Syria. 
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The Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Agreement The Lebanese Point of View

On November 27, 2024, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon went into effect, halting the fighting which broke out on October 8, 2023. According to the agreement, Israel will gradually withdraw its forces from south Lebanon over 60 days, while the Lebanese army will deploy its forces in south Lebanon and work to prevent armed organizations, primarily Hezbollah, from holding weapons or operating military facilities south of the Litani River. An American-led committee will oversee the implementation; Hezbollah is attempting to establish a narrative of victory, claiming that the fighting ended with an Israeli defeat, despite the heavy losses to the organization, including the killing of its secretary general Hassan Nasrallah and its military leadership. Na’im Qassem, the new secretary general, claimed it was a greater victory than the one in the 2006 war, adding that the organization was committed to cooperating with the Lebanese army to implement the agreement. A Hezbollah-affiliated journalist said Hezbollah would free its prisoners "by any means"; Immediately after the ceasefire, thousands of displaced persons began returning to their homes in south Lebanon, the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia in Beirut, and the Beqa'a. However, the IDF and the Lebanese army warned them not to return to villages near the border, and the IDF opened fire on Lebanese attempting to return to south Lebanon. From Hezbollah's perspective, the return of the displaced to their homes in south Lebanon is another expression of victory, in contrast to Israelis, who cannot return to their homes along the border; Lebanon’s interim prime minister and other government officials said they would give the army all the necessary authority to implement the ceasefire agreement in south Lebanon. Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, said that Lebanon had overcome "Israeli aggression"; Hezbollah’s political and social media opponents expressed wonder and criticized Hezbollah's declarations of victory, given the extensive destruction in Lebanon and the blows to the organization. They also expressed hope that the agreement would lead to Hezbollah’s disarmament and criticized the "resistance axis" for its claims of supporting Lebanon while not paying a price; In our assessment, Hezbollah will continue to promote and reiterate its victory narrative and adopt a policy of brinkmanship. Its operatives will attempt to challenge the implementation of the ceasefire until the planned withdrawal of IDF forces from south Lebanon by the end of January 2025. Even after the withdrawal, the Lebanese army will most likely be unable to enforce the ceasefire, prevent Hezbollah operatives from reaching south Lebanon or fully oversee the dismantling of Hezbollah’s infrastructure south of the Litani River, due to Hezbollah’s efforts to integrate its activities into the local population and the army’s desire to avoid direct confrontation with Hezbollah.
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