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Lebanon

Spotlight on Syria (Following the Toppling of the Syrian Regime) December 16 – 23 , 2024

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) began to consolidate its rule in Syria with the appointment of defense and foreign ministers as well as the appointment of commanders of organizations that helped topple the Assad regime to the positions of provincial governors; HTS leader Ahmad al-Shara (Abu Mohammad al-Julani) held meetings with senior foreign officials who arrived in Damascus, including the Turkish foreign minister. The American assistant secretary of state praised al-Shara and announced the removal of the bounty placed on his head; A meeting of senior Druze leaders with al-Shara drew criticism in the community and warnings against cooperation with the new government; It was claimed that the Syrian regime closed the airspace to Iranian planes that made their way to Lebanon; A Hezbollah member of parliament warned that if Israel engaged in military action against Syria, Hezbollah would help Damascus. The prime minister of Lebanon’s interim government instructed the official institutions to collaborate with HTS on security matters; There were reports of continued Israeli airstrikes throughout Syria and the advance of IDF forces in southern Syria. Al-Shara stressed that the removal of Hezbollah and the pro-Iranian militias from Syria had eliminated the justification for Israeli activity against Syria and called for the involvement of the international community; Turkey is reportedly concentrating forces on the border with Syria in preparation for a large-scale operation against the Kurdish militia; The United States carried out airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria and eliminated a senior commander in the Deir ez-Zor area.
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Summary of Terrorist Events, November 2024

During November 2024, fighting continued in the Gaza Strip, Judea and Samaria, and south Lebanon, as did attacks on Israel from pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Yemen. On November 27 a ceasefire in the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah went into effect; Lebanon: The fighting between Israel and Hezbollah continued until the ceasefire went effect. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 682 attacks on IDF forces maneuvering in south Lebanon and on military, security and civilian targets in Israel, extending as far as the Greater Tel Aviv area, compared to 806 attacks in the previous month. Hezbollah continued to conceal the names of senior figures and operatives killed, announcing only the deaths of the organization's spokesperson, Muhammad Afif, and four members of its media network; The Gaza Strip: Eleven rockets were launched at Israeli territory, compared to 28 rockets in the previous month. Targeted killings of senior and prominent terrorist operatives in Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) continued; Israel, Judea and Samaria: Four terrorist attacks were carried out in Judea and Samaria, with no fatalities, compared to nine attacks the previous month. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations, focusing on northern Samaria. Terror operatives were eliminated in exchanges of fire and airstrikes, including commanders of terrorist organizations. A large shipment of Iranian weapons destined for terrorist operatives in Judea and Samaria was intercepted; Shi'ite militias: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq issued 69 claims of responsibility for attacks on 55 targets in Israeli territory, compared to 72 claims for 76 attacks the previous month. The Saraya Awliyaa al-Dam militia issued seven claims of responsibility for attacks on 11 targets in Israel, compared to 17 claims the previous month. On November 24 the militias ceased issuing claims of responsibility because of pressure from the Iraqi government and fear of an Israeli strike. Most of the launches by Iraqi militias lacked actual verification; some were intercepted, and others landed in Israeli territory without causing casualties. The Houthis claimed responsibility for five attacks on Israeli targets, compared to eight the previous month; Terrorist attacks on Israelis abroad: A Chabad emissary in the UAE was kidnapped and murdered. Three suspects, citizens of Uzbekistan, were arrested. 
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (December 16 – 22, 2024)

The IDF continued operations against Hezbollah's attempts to violate the ceasefire, targeting Hezbollah operatives and destroying weapons and terrorist facilities in south Lebanon. The Lebanese Army continued deploying in towns near the southern border and took control of positions vacated by Palestinian terrorist organizations in the Beqa'a area; Senior Hezbollah figures continued to accuse Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement while claiming the organization was committed to its implementation. However, they warned that Hezbollah might take action if Israel did not complete its withdrawal from south Lebanon without a response from the Lebanese government and army. Hezbollah expanded its compensation payments to homeowners whose properties were damaged in IDF strikes; Reports indicated that Hezbollah was unaware of the fate of more than a thousand operatives with whom contact was lost during the fighting. A Hezbollah member of the Lebanese Parliament stated that the funeral ceremony for Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safi al-Din was expected to be held in early 2025; Indictments were filed against three Israeli citizens for assisting Hezbollah during the war; The Lebanese minister of welfare noted that the arrival of approximately 100,000 displaced persons as a result of the revolution in Syria was complicating the Lebanese efforts to rebuild the country; Suleiman Frangieh, Hezbollah's preferred candidate for the Lebanese presidency, announced that he was continuing his candidacy ahead of the parliamentary session on January 9, 2025. However, Army Commander Joseph Aoun is considered the leading candidate for the position. 
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Captured documents reveal how Iran smuggles weapons via Syria and Jordan

For years, Iran, its Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and Qods Force, have been operating a network smuggling weapons and funds to its proxies in the Middle East, primarily Hezbollah and Hamas. Until the overthrow of the Assad regime in early December 2024, Syria was the main smuggling route for arming Hezbollah with advanced precision weapons, many of which were used to attack Israel; Documents captured from Hamas during the war in the Gaza Strip expose Iran's aerial, maritime and overland routes to smuggle weapons to Syria, Lebanon, and Judea and Samaria. Some documents related to the arrest in Jordan of a smuggling network affiliated with Hamas and showed how Hamas and Iran transfer weapons to Judea and Samaria in hopes of igniting yet another front against Israel. They also related to Israeli and American methods to prevent arms smuggling; In recent years, Jordan has intensified its efforts to combat the smuggling of weapons and drugs by networks directed by Iran and its militias, from south Syria into Jordanian territory. Israel has also increased its efforts to prevent arms from being smuggled to Hezbollah, Judea and Samaria; The overthrow of the Assad regime undermined Iran's ability to transfer weapons through Syria, especially to Hezbollah, which is trying to recover from the blows inflicted by Israel. However, Iran's commitment to the "resistance" will most probably cause Tehran to seek alternative routes to replace the one through Syria and transfer weapons to its proxies for attacks on Israel.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (December 11 – 18, 2024)

Senior Iranian officials claimed that the fall of the Assad regime in Syria would not affect the “axis of resistance” and that Tehran would continue to support Hezbollah and the Palestinians. Iran explained that it did not help the Syrian army against the rebels because the Syrian regime did not want to fight; Iran and the militias condemned the IDF’s activity in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime and called for regional and international intervention; Iran is preparing to reopen its embassy in Damascus if the appropriate security conditions are guaranteed; The Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq using drones against targets in southern Israel. In addition, they claimed responsibility for independent attacks using drones and a ballistic missile. The IDF Spokesperson confirmed that two drones and a ballistic missile were intercepted before they penetrated Israeli territory; The US attacked a Houthi command and control facility in the Defense Ministry building in Sana’a; The US secretary of state urged the Iraqi prime minister to take advantage of Iran’s weakness and act to disarm the militias.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah Lebanon (December 9 – 16 ,2024)

The IDF continued to take action against Hezbollah's attempts to violate the ceasefire, attacking Hezbollah operatives, rocket and missile launchers, and terrorist facilities in south Lebanon. For the first time, the Lebanese army was deployed in towns near the border with Israel to implement the agreement; Na'im Qassem, Hezbollah’s secretary general, claimed the organization did not want to violate the ceasefire agreement, despite alleging "hundreds of Israeli violations." He asserted that even if "the resistance" lost sometimes, it remained in place, although with limited capabilities. He also claimed Hezbollah had no intention of disarming north of the Litani River and presented the organization's next steps. Homeowners in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia whose houses were destroyed began receiving annual rent payments; Criticism of Hezbollah: Lebanese Shi'ites filed lawsuits against the organization for hiding weapons in private homes in south Lebanon. A Druze politician close to Hezbollah called for peace with Israel; Najib Mikati, prime minister of the Lebanese interim government, said at least $5 billion would be necessary for reconstructing the country. According to reports, it would cost at least $12 million to clear the rubble from the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia; Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, claimed optimism regarding the election of a new president for Lebanon on January 9, 2025, after more than two years. Hezbollah’s candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, is expected to withdraw from the race, while the army commander, Joseph Aoun, leads the list of candidates.
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