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Iran in the Face of Regional Developments: Challenges, Responses and Possible Courses of Action

The dramatic developments in the Middle East in recent months, mainly Israel’s military achievements vis-à-vis Hamas and Hezbollah and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, have significantly weakened Iran and the “resistance front” that it leads and pose significant challenges to it, first and foremost the damage to Tehran’s ability to influence the region. These challenges join a series of other challenges facing the Islamic Republic, mainly the deepening of the economic crisis, the consequences of the Israeli attack at the end of October 2024, and the return of Donald Trump to the White House; In light of the recent regional developments, Iran is trying to downplay the seriousness of the situation, emphasizing its capabilities and the capabilities of the “resistance front” to overcome the challenges and continue to act in light of the new circumstances, thanks in part to the ability of Iran’s regional proxies to produce weapons themselves, Highlighting Israel’s failure to realize its goals in the war, both in the Gaza Strip and in Lebanon, and presenting the ceasefire in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip as a victory for the “resistance front” and a strategic failure for Israel, Emphasizing Iran’s continued support for the “resistance,” as it is a central pillar of the Islamic Republic’s policy; In the ITIC’s assessment, Iran has no intention of backing down from its efforts to maintain its regional status and continue its support for the “resistance front.” At the same time, it appears that Iran will examine how to make the necessary adjustments and find possible solutions to the limitations and constraints it faces in the main arenas in which it operates.
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Spotlight on Syria (Following the Toppling of the Syrian Regime) January 15 – 22, 2025

According to Murhaf Abu Qasra, the Syrian defense minister, the armed factions were willing to join the new military structure. He said the Kurdish militia of the Syrian Democratic Forces would not be able to maintain an independent identity in the new army, while the militia commander said they had not yet decided if they were going to hand over their weapons; Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani), de facto leader of Syria, and Asaad al-Shibani, Syrian foreign minister, met in Damascus with diplomats. Al-Sharaa also congratulated President Trump and expressed confidence he would help bring peace to the Middle East; The new regime's security forces continued operations to locate senior figures from the Assad regime still inside Syria, focusing on the Daraa province in the south. The forces thwarted an attempt to smuggle weapons into Lebanon, including Iranian UAVs; According to reports, three people were killed in an Israeli airstrike on a convoy of the Syrian military operations directorate in the al-Quneitra area. Syrian officials called for the withdrawal of IDF forces and claimed Syria was no longer a threat to Israel. 
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (January 15 – 22, 2025)

Iran presented the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas as an Israeli defeat and a victory for Hamas and the “Palestinian resistance.” According to senior Iranian officials, Israel was forced to agree to the ceasefire after failing to realize its goals in the war even after 15 months. The Houthis and the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq also congratulated Hamas on the “victory.” The Iranian foreign minister stressed Iran’s continued support for the “resistance"; The Houthis claimed responsibility for six attacks against Israel using ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles. The IDF Spokesperson reported the interception of two ballistic missiles. Senior Houthi officials announced a halt to direct attacks against Israel due to the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip but threatened to resume operations in the event of Israeli “violations.” However, they declared that attacks in the Red Sea against vessels connected to Israel would continue; The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq announced the suspension of their military operations against Israel due to the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. In practice, they stopped the attacks as early as November 24, 2024; The Syrian authorities have instructed foreign airlines flying to the country not to allow the entry of Iranian citizens; The Syrian security and intelligence services announced the seizure of weapons on the Syrian-Lebanese border, including Iranian-made drones. Experience indicates that Iran continues to make efforts to transfer weapons to Lebanon even after the collapse of the Assad regime. 
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah Lebanon (January 13 – 25 , 2025)

The IDF continued to thwart Hezbollah's attempts to violate the ceasefire. IDF forces located and destroyed weapons and terrorist facilities in south Lebanon, some near UNIFIL bases and in residential buildings. Lebanese army forces continued to deploy in the villages evacuated by the IDF in the western and central sectors of south Lebanon; Na'im Qassem, Hezbollah secretary general, warned Israel not to try the organization's patience with "violations." A Hezbollah member of the Lebanese Parliament threatened that if Israel did not withdraw by January 26, 2025, the ceasefire agreement would collapse and the Lebanese would have to "confront the enemy"; French President Macron and UN secretary general Guterres visited Beirut and met with senior Lebanese officials. They called for the completion of Israel's withdrawal from south Lebanon and expressed their commitment to the success of the ceasefire, strengthening the Lebanese army and rebuilding Lebanon; Senior Hezbollah officials rejected claims that the organization had been weakened and stated that the "resistance" remained strong and was cooperating with state institutions. Alleged information about the planned burial site for Hassan Nasrallah was posted to social media; Lebanese President Aoun gave Nawaf Salam, president of the International Court of Justice in The Hague, the mission of forming a new government. Hezbollah representatives announced they did not support Salam's appointment; however, according to reports, progress has been made in discussions regarding integrating Hezbollah into the government.
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Summary of Terrorist Events, December 2024

During December 2024 fighting continued in the Gaza Strip, Judea and Samaria, with continuous attacks from the Houthis in Yemen. The ceasefire in south Lebanon was maintained and the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq did not attack Israel; The Gaza Strip: Palestinian terrorists fired twenty rockets at Israeli territory, compared to eleven the previous month. A UAV was launched toward Israel and was intercepted. Targeted attacks on Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) leaders and terrorist operatives continued, including the elimination of Tharwat al-Beic, head of the Hamas security forces, and Diab Ali al-Jarou, mayor of Deir al-Balah. Terrorists who participated in the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre were also eliminated; Israel, Judea and Samaria: Palestinian terrorists carried out nine attacks (six of them in Israeli territory) which killed two Israeli civilians; four attacks were carried out in November 2024. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations in Judea and Samaria, and eliminated terrorist operatives on the ground and from the air, including commanders of terrorist networks; Lebanon: The ceasefire which went into effect on November 27, 2024, was maintained. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for one attack on an IDF post. Groups allied with Hezbollah reported casualties from IDF strikes which targeted violations of the ceasefire; The Shi'ite militias: The Houthis claimed responsibility for twenty missiles and UAV attacks on Israeli targets, compared to five attacks in November 2024. They also claimed responsibility for six joint attacks with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq against Israel, the first such act of cooperation since July 2024. However, Islamic militias in Iraq have not claimed responsibility for attacks on Israel since November 24, 2024, the result of pressure from the Iraqi government and concerns over potential Israeli retaliation.
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Spotlight on Syria (Following the Toppling of the Syrian Regime) January 8–15, 2025

The de facto leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani), said it was necessary to adopt a "state-building mentality" and abandon revenge to make it possible to establish stable Syrian institutions; The Syrian defense minister and chief of staff met with the heads of armed militias, and reportedly an agreement was reached to integrate most of them into the Ministry of Defense and the new Syrian army; Al-Sharaa continued meeting with foreign diplomats who arrived in Damascus, including the interim prime minister of Lebanon. Al-Sharaa declared that Iran and Hezbollah had caused damage to Syria and that the transfer of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah through Syria would not be permitted. The Syrian foreign minister participated in a meeting of Arab and Western foreign ministers in Saudi Arabia, who called for preserving Syria’s unity and lifting sanctions; The Syrian justice minister announced courts would be established to prosecute those who committed crimes against the people and to pursue senior figures of the previous regime who were abroad. Security forces of the new regime continue their operations to locate senior officials of the Assad regime still in the country. Two security personnel were ambushed and killed by Alawite gunmen. Syrian security forces and Hezbollah operatives smuggling weapons exchanged fire on the Syria-Lebanon border; The commander of the Kurdish militia of the Syrian Democratic Forces said they did not seek to separate from Syria but wanted geographic autonomy to safeguard their rights. Turkish President Erdogan justified his country's involvement in Syria. A report of unclear reliability claimed that Iran would supply Kurdish organizations in Iraq and Syria with 1,500 UAVs to counter Turkish activity; IDF operations continue in the demilitarized zone in the Golan Heights, with thousands of weapons seized. The international community expressed concern over Israel's "invasion" of Syria.
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