Lebanon

Hezbollah: One Year After the Ceasefire

November 27, 2025, marked one year since the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon went into effect, ending the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah which began on October 8, 2023; The results of the war and regional and internal geo-strategic developments in Lebanon over the past year put Hezbollah in the most complex situation it had experienced since its establishment, with the loss of its leadership and senior figures and thousands of field commanders and operatives, the continuation of targeted killings and damage to the organization’s infrastructure as part of the IDF’s efforts to enforce the ceasefire agreement, the halting of flights from Iran and the blow to smuggling routes and sources of funding, the Lebanese government's decision to implement the state’s monopoly over weapons, international pressure on Lebanon and criticism from within the Shi'ite community; Despite the difficulties, Hezbollah has shown itself eminently capable of adapting and rebuilding itself through organizational decentralization to improve the survivability of the leadership, reliance on continued Iranian support and the development of alternative methods for smuggling weapons and funds, manufacturing weapons itself, the preservation of its internal Lebanese political power base while strengthening the status of the organization and "the resistance" among young Shi'ites in Lebanon; Throughout the year, Hezbollah’s senior figures changed their rhetoric. In the first months, they claimed commitment to the ceasefire and placed responsibility on state institutions to deal with [alleged] "Israeli violations." However, continued attacks and targeted killings, along with growing pressure on the government to disarm Hezbollah and begin negotiations with Israel, led Hezbollah to harden its defiant rhetoric and increase threats to "respond" to Israel and take action against anyone who attempted to harm it within Lebanon, although it continued to maintain restraint and did not "respond" to Israel's attacks; The targeted killing of Hezbollah’s acting chief of staff, Haitham Ali Tabataba’i, underscored the dilemma facing Hezbollah, that is, threats of retaliatory action and the understanding that any response, especially if carried out unilaterally by Hezbollah, would have severe consequences for Lebanon in general and the organization in particular; In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah's ongoing efforts to rebuild its military capabilities and replenish its arsenal, the inability of the Lebanese armed forces to stop them and the Lebanese government’s failure to meet the deadlines it set for disarming Hezbollah and other armed militias, and the intensification of Israeli enforcement measures, may erode Hezbollah's caution and restraint and increase the risk of escalation, which would include a response targeting IDF forces or Israeli territory. Despite Hezbollah’s weakened state, it apparently still has sufficient power to deter the Lebanese government from any attempt to fully enforce on Hezbollah the state’s monopoly over weapons, while remaining the central power broker within the Shi'ite community without any significant opposition capable of challenging its position. Read more...

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (November 19-26, 2025)

Iran and the Shiite militias strongly condemned the targeted killing of Hezbollah’s acting chief of staff, Ali Haitham Tabatabai, in an Israeli attack in Beirut. They expressed solidarity with Hezbollah and stressed that the organization has a “right to take revenge.”; On the occasion of Lebanon’s Independence Day, the Iranian President emphasized his country’s support for Lebanon and its demand for Israel’s withdrawal from the country. The Iranian foreign minister expressed his willingness to respond to his Lebanese counterpart’s call for a direct meeting to resolve the differences between the two countries; In recent months, Iran and Hezbollah have reportedly managed to smuggle weapons and goods to Hezbollah through the port of Tripoli in northern Lebanon; The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman condemned the IDF’s continued attacks in the Gaza Strip and accused Israel of ongoing violations of the ceasefire; The Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned the visit of the Israeli Prime Minister and other senior Israeli officials to southern Syria and called on the international community to force Israel to withdraw from the areas under its control in Syrian territory; “Iranian officials” claimed that Tehran has lost control over the Houthis and the militias in Iraq, who do not respond to Iranian requests. A senior Qods Force official was sent to Sana’a in an attempt to persuade the Houthis to increase cooperation. Read more...

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (November 17-24, 2025)

The IDF eliminated Hezbollah's acting chief of staff, Haytham Ali Tabatabai, in a targeted attack on the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia in Beirut. He was responsible for efforts to reconstruct the organization and replenish its arsenal. Hezbollah confirmed his death and the deaths of four other operatives, but did not explicitly threaten Israel, instead calling on Lebanese authorities to take an "appropriate response."; IDF forces continued attacking Hezbollah facilities in south Lebanon and the Beqa'a Valley and eliminated terrorist operatives as part of the ongoing activity against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon, which violates the understandings of the ceasefire agreement, and following the organization's attempts to reconstruct itself and replenish its arsenal. The forces attacked rocket launch sites and weapons depots, and eliminated eight terrorist operatives; Hezbollah continued to reiterate its dissatisfaction with the responses of the Lebanese government to Israel's continued attacks, and called on it to formulate a plan for "confronting the occupation."; Lebanon's President Aoun said he was prepared to participate in regional peace processes under the United States or UN auspices, while Prime Minister Salam accused Israel of being unwilling to negotiate and not adhering to the conditions of the ceasefire agreement; Despite the Lebanese government and army's claims that "progress was being made" in removing Hezbollah's presence from south Lebanon and implementing the state monopoly on weapons, a senior Hezbollah figure stated that the organization would not disarm and would not hand over its weapons to state authorities, but would preserve its military capabilities; UNIFIL began to reduce its forces in south Lebanon following the UN budget cut; The visit of the commander of the Lebanese army to the United States was reportedly canceled after he referred to Israel as "an enemy" and because of American dissatisfaction with the pace of Hezbollah's disarmament; According to reports, Hezbollah and Iran began using the port of Tripoli for smuggling weapons and goods because of the tightened oversight at the port of Beirut and at the international airport; The IDF attacked a Hamas training compound in the Ein al-Hilweh refugee camp, killing 13 Hamas terrorist operatives. The compound served Hamas in Lebanon as a training site and a location for preparing to carry out terrorist attacks against Israel. Hamas claimed Israel attacked a sports field where youths were present. Read more...

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (November 12-19, 2025)

The Iranian Foreign Ministry expressed “deep concern” that the UN Security Council resolution adopting President Trump’s plan for the future of the Gaza Strip contradicts the Palestinians’ right to self-determination. It stressed that the international force in the Gaza Strip should only deal with implementing the ceasefire and bringing in humanitarian aid; The advisor to the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament met in Tehran with senior Iranian government officials, headed by the Secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security, the Foreign Minister, and the Speaker of the Majles. He expressed hope that Iran would be more present in dealing with the challenges facing Lebanon; Iranian officials congratulated Iraq following the parliamentary elections held in the country, in which the pro-Iranian militias increased their power; It was reported that Iran returned the IRGC Qods Force representative to Yemen to help the Houthis reorganize following the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the Israeli strikes in Yemen. The UN Security Council extended sanctions on the Houthis and senior figures in the Houthi leadership and security forces by one year. Read more...

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (November 10-17, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah facilities in south Lebanon and in the Beqa'a Valley and eliminated operatives of the organization as part of ongoing activity against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon, in violation of the ceasefire understandings and because of the organization's renewed attempts to regain its strength and rebuild its arsenal. A rocket launching site and facilities for the production and storage of strategic weapons were attacked, and a Hezbollah operative who also served as a school principal was eliminated; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem threatened a possible response to the continued Israeli attacks. Another senior Hezbollah figure warned that Israel would achieve nothing with a new war in Lebanon or an escalation and "any aggression will be met with confrontation."; Senior Lebanese government officials reiterated their support for opening negotiations with Israel which would lead to the implementation of the ceasefire agreement and the regulation of the border, and accused Israel of continuing "aggression." It was reported that American officials who visited Lebanon concluded that there was no chance of progress and the American administration would allow Israel to carry out a powerful and brief attack on Hezbollah without sliding into a broad war. The aide to the speaker of the Lebanese parliament visited Iran and said he hoped it would stand by Lebanon "in the face of the challenges before us."; UNIFIL protested to Israel over the construction of a new security wall, claiming it penetrated Lebanese sovereign territory. The IDF denied UNIFIL's claims of deliberate gunfire at a UN force in south Lebanon; The Lebanese army reportedly refused Israel's demand to conduct searches for Hezbollah weapons in private homes in south Lebanon for fear of confrontation with operatives of the organization and its supporters. A senior Hezbollah figure claimed the organization had the right to refuse external pressures to disarm; Given the growing pressure from the American administration to block Hezbollah's funding, Lebanon's central bank announced there would be tighter supervision on unauthorized institutions and illegal money transfers. Hezbollah warned that it would respond to an attempt to disrupt the activities of the al-Qard al-Hasan Association, the organization's economic arm. Read more...

Iran Assists Hezbollah’s Post-Ceasefire Reconstruction

The United States Treasury Department reported that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) had transferred approximately $1 billion to Hezbollah since the beginning of the year to reconstruct the organization's military capabilities in the wake of the war against Israel. Since the war ended in late November 2024, Iran has also continued to smuggle weapons to the organization and interfere with the Lebanese government's efforts to disarm Hezbollah. As a result, a senior American delegation urged the Lebanese leadership to accelerate action against the sources of Hezbollah's funding; The fall of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024 and the flight ban imposed by the Lebanese government on Iran since February 2025 disrupted the land and air routes used by Iran to transfer weapons, technological assistance and funds to Hezbollah. Iran and Hezbollah subsequently found other avenues, including smuggling through Turkey and Iraq, by sea and through currency-exchange agencies. They also continue to rely on smuggling networks along the Syria-Lebanon border, despite Syrian and IDF efforts to block them; The Iranian embassy in Beirut denied the information provided by the American government, but throughout the war in the Gaza Strip and after the ceasefire Iranian officials made clear that they continue to support Hezbollah, as they do other members of the "resistance axis." Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem also publicly thanked Iran for its "massive" assistance; The American disclosure of the financial aid transferred by the IRGC to Hezbollah, along with the exposure of smuggling methods, showed that Iran and Hezbollah had found ways to overcome the challenges of geopolitical changes in Lebanon and the Middle East since the ceasefire in late November 2024, and how difficult it was to dent the 40-year cooperation between Tehran and the Lebanese organization. In all probability Iran will continue to support and fund Hezbollah's military and civil reconstruction in order to preserve its status within the Shi'ite community and in Lebanon, and to prevent Israel and the Lebanese authorities from weakening or neutralizing Iran's most important strategic arm in the Middle East. The absence of more decisive action by the international community in general and by the Lebanese government in particular, to eliminate Hezbollah's funding sources and block smuggling routes, will allow Iran and Hezbollah to continue transferring funds and weapons with little disruption. Read more...

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