Lebanon

Hezbollah’s Reconstruction Efforts Amid the IDF’s Enforcement of the Ceasefire in Lebanon

Since the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon went into effect on November 27, 2024, Hezbollah has been making efforts to restore its capabilities, which were severely damaged in the campaign against Israel between October 2023 and November 2024, while adapting the organization’s structure to the new reality. Senior Hezbollah officials have even declared that the organization is prepared for a new confrontation with Israel. Hezbollah’s reconstruction activities in southern Lebanon constitute a violation of the understandings prohibiting Hezbollah’s presence south of the Litani River; In light of identifying accelerated efforts to reconstruct the organization’s infrastructure, the IDF carried out hundreds of attacks against Hezbollah operatives and the organization’s military infrastructure in southern Lebanon and other areas of the country. Since the beginning of October 2025, a total of 20 attacks have been carried out to enforce the ceasefire understandings, destroying capabilities that aided in reconstructing Hezbollah’s infrastructure, including hundreds of engineering vehicles and a concrete production quarry; Hezbollah has continued the line it has taken since the beginning of the ceasefire, calling on the Lebanese authorities to intensify their efforts against “Israeli aggression,” while vaguely threatening that the “resistance” may lose its patience; The Israeli strike that destroyed hundreds of engineering vehicles intensified the anger and criticism from the Lebanese leadership, which accused Israel of attempting to undermine Lebanon’s reconstruction efforts in general and efforts to reconstruct the villages in southern Lebanon in particular. Prime Minister Salam also instructed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to file a complaint with the UN Security Council; Against the backdrop of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the attempt to increase American pressure on Israel, Lebanese President Aoun proposed opening indirect negotiations with Israel to resolve disputed issues. It was reported that Hezbollah did not reject the idea, but demanded as a precondition the cessation of strikes, withdrawal of IDF forces from southern Lebanon, and the release of Lebanese detainees held in Israel; In the ITIC’s assessment, Hezbollah is expected to continue efforts to restore its capabilities despite IDF enforcement actions, with emphasis on areas north of the Litani River to minimize friction with Lebanese Army forces working to implement the state monopoly on weapons in southern Lebanon. The ITIC assesses that if the trend of Israeli strikes against Hezbollah operatives and infrastructure intensifies, Hezbollah is expected to increase criticism and pressure on state leadership, but it appears that for now, the organization remains restrained and will avoid direct action against Israel. However, if Israeli strikes result in widespread harm to uninvolved civilians, Hezbollah may respond more extensively under the pretext of “defending Lebanon.” Read more...

Spotlight on Terrorism – September 2025

During September 2025 fighting in the Gaza Strip and counterterrorism activity in Judea and Samaria continued. The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah continued despite IDF strikes on Hezbollah targets. The Houthis continued attacking Israeli territory; The IDF continued aerial and ground attacks on terrorist targets throughout the Strip and began a ground maneuver inside Gaza City. Ten IDF soldiers were killed. Commanders and operatives in the military wings of Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and other terrorist organizations were eliminated, including operatives involved in the October 7, 2023 attack and massacre, and operatives who held hostages. An attempted strike on the Hamas leadership in Qatar failed. Five rockets were fired at Israeli territory during September; There were four terrorist attacks compared with one in August; six Israeli civilians and three IDF soldiers were killed. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations across Judea and Samaria, during which rockets were found and a network operating under the direction of Hamas' headquarters in Turkey was exposed; The IDF continued operations against Hezbollah's violations of the ceasefire which went into effect on November 27, 2024, and against the organization's attempts to reconstruct its military capabilities. At least 13 Hezbollah operatives were eliminated, including one involved in directing terrorism from Syria and another operating in the Iranian Imam Hussein Division, and military facilities were attacked. An operative from the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese Brigades for Resistance to the Israeli Occupation was eliminated; Suspects planning to attack IDF forces in southern Syria were detained, and weapons and missile depots were attacked; The Houthis claimed responsibility for 26 ballistic missile and UAV attacks on Israel. The IDF spokesperson reported the interception of nine ballistic missiles and 12 UAVs, with additional missiles disintegrating en route to Israel; three UAVs hit Eilat, Israel's southernmost city, and Ramon Airport, injuring more than 20 people. The IDF attacked Houthi regime targets in Yemen twice. Read more...

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (September 17—30, 2025)

In his speech at the UN General Assembly, the Iranian President accused Israel of committing “genocide” in the Gaza Strip and declared that the “Greater Israel” plan expresses the true intentions of the “Zionist regime.” The Houthi leader in Yemen accused the Arab countries of making a “strategic mistake” due to their continued ties with Israel; Hardline media in Iran expressed reservations about European countries’ recognition of the “State of Palestine,” arguing that such recognition is not enough to bring about a change in the Palestinians’ situation or to end the “Zionist occupation.”; Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, arrived in Lebanon to participate in the commemoration ceremonies marking the first anniversary of the targeted killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. He stressed Iran’s continued support for Hezbollah but made it clear that it does not interfere in Lebanon’s decision-making. Before Larijani’s visit, the Lebanese government refused to allow two Iranian planes to land in Beirut ahead of the anniversary events; The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman responded to the Syrian President’s remarks that the severing of relations between the two countries is not permanent and said that Iran is ready to renew ties with Damascus but is not in a hurry to do so; The Houthis claimed responsibility for nine attacks against targets in Israel using ballistic missiles and drones. Two drones exploded in Eilat, injuring at least 20 people. In response, the IDF attacked Houthi military targets in Sana’a; The Houthis reportedly improved their own capabilities in the production of drones and long-range missiles and are preparing for the possibility of a ground raid into Israeli territory; A Dutch-flagged cargo ship was attacked in the Red Sea and caught fire. Two crew members were injured; The United States has added four pro-Iranian militias in Iraq to the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations. The militias are preparing amid concerns about an Israeli attack; A Syrian militia claimed responsibility for an explosion near an IDF post in southern Syria, in which an IDF reserve officer was seriously wounded. Read more...

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (september 15 – 28, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah infrastructure and eliminated operatives of the organization as part of ongoing operations against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon, which violates the ceasefire agreement understandings, and against Hezbollah's efforts to increase its military capabilities and restore its arsenal. A precision missile production site and Radwan Force camps were, attacked and seven Hezbollah operatives were eliminated; The continued Israeli attacks, and especially the deaths of four uninvolved family members in Bint Jbeil, aroused anger in Lebanon: Hezbollah accused the Lebanese government of weakness, while leaders criticized the performance of the committee supervising the implementation of the ceasefire and that it was biased in Israel's favor; Hezbollah marked the anniversary of the pager attack and the killing of secretary general Hassan Nasrallah and his designated successor Hashem Safi al-Din, as well as other senior figures. Na'im Qassem, the current secretary general, reiterated the organization's refusal to disarm and claimed Hezbollah was prepared for "martyrdom."; Lebanese President Aoun used his visit to the UN General Assembly to call for pressure to be exerted on Israel to stop its attacks and withdraw from Lebanese territory while reiterating the commitment of the Lebanese authorities to Hezbollah's disarmament. Aoun reportedly instructed the army commander to ensure weapons were cleared from all the territory south of the Litani River; Senior Lebanese government officials met with senior Iranian officials who reiterated their promises not to interfere in Lebanon's internal affairs. The secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council denied that his country was sending weapons to Hezbollah. Read more...

The Anniversary of Nasrallah’s Death and the Challenges facing Hezbollah

Hezbollah held formal ceremonies to mark the anniversary of the pager attack and the deaths of secretary general Hassan Nasrallah and his designated successor Hashem Safi al-Din, among others. The ceremonies exposed the challenges facing the organization, led by the demand it disarms, its status in Lebanon, continued Israeli attacks and economic and other internal difficulties; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem and others used the ceremonies as a platform to reiterate that the "resistance" would not disarm and threatened violence if disarmament were implemented by force. On the other hand, President Aoun and Prime Minister Salam reiterated their intention, with increasing American pressure, to achieve a state monopoly on weapons: Aoun was the more cautious of the two, fearing civil war; Hezbollah ignored the ban on projecting pictures of Nasrallah and Safi al-Din on the tourist site of the Raouche [Pigeon] Rock in Beirut, causing the tensions between the organization and Prime Minister Salam to resurface; Salam demanded the arrest of those responsible and threatened to resign; In ITIC assessment, the Lebanese state's inability to enforce its sovereignty over Hezbollah, despite the blows inflicted on the organization in the past two years, reflects the Lebanon's fundamental weakness and the difficulty of the international system to motivate the state's institutions to act. Hezbollah, on the other hand, maintains its military capabilities and has a wide enough circle of loyalists to allow it to challenge the decisions of the government of which it is a part and to use threats of force to achieve its goals. However, the continuing attempts to disarm Hezbollah and the continued Israeli enforcement of the ceasefire agreement may cause Hezbollah to use force in the domestic arena, or attempt to act against Israel as a "common Hezbollah and Lebanon enemy," despite its weakness and its restraint so far. Read more...

spotlight on Terrorism and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (September 9-16, 2025)

On September 16, 2025, IDF forces launched a ground maneuver in Gaza City as part of Operation Gideon’s Chariots II, following airstrikes on hundreds of terrorist targets across the city. Despite threats and obstruction attempts by Hamas, at least 350,000 residents responded to the IDF’s calls and relocated to humanitarian areas in the southern Gaza Strip; Negotiations for the release of the hostages and a ceasefire have been frozen following an Israeli attempt to eliminate the Hamas leadership in Doha, Qatar. Hamas has made it clear that it will not give up its demands for an end to the war and a complete withdrawal of IDF forces from the Gaza Strip; Pro-Palestinian activists continued their flotilla in the Mediterranean Sea in an attempt to “break the siege” on the Gaza Strip; The PA’s security forces reportedly detained businessman Samir Halile, who claimed he is a candidate for the position of interim governor of the Gaza Strip; A Palestinian terrorist holding a blue ID card wounded two Israelis in a stabbing attack at a hotel in kibbutz Tzuba. Israeli security forces sealed the homes of the two perpetrators of the recent shooting attack in Jerusalem’s Ramot neighborhood, even before obtaining a demolition permit; The Palestinian Authority welcomed the UN General Assembly’s decision to adopt the New York Declaration, which calls for the implementation of the two-state solution. Read more...

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