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Lebanon

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (August 6—13, 2025)

The Iranian Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the Israeli cabinet’s decision in favor of occupying the Gaza Strip; According to a commentary published on the Iranian Supreme Leader’s official website, the 12-day war with Israel and the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, should be seen as an expression of long-term strategic planning led by Iran to strengthen the “resistance front” and eliminate the “hegemony of the Zionist regime.”; Senior Iranian officials strongly criticized the Lebanese government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah, presenting it as an expression of an Israeli-American plan to weaken Hezbollah and the “axis of resistance.” Ali-Akbar Velayati, a senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, declared that this is “a dream that will not come true.”; Ali Larijani, the newly appointed secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, visited Iraq and Lebanon amid growing internal tensions in the two countries and the growing pressure to disarm the Shiite militias; The Houthis’ military spokesman claimed responsibility for seven attacks against Israel using drones. The IDF Spokesperson announced three incidents of intercepting drones; An investigation of crew members who were on a ship carrying 750 tons of weapons from Iran to the Houthis revealed an extensive smuggling network of Iran and the Houthis in the Middle East and Africa. Anti-Houthi forces captured another ship carrying military equipment from China; It was reported that the Americans urged the Iraqi government to dismantle the militias’ drones and missiles and threatened to take military action if the Iraqi authorities did not do so.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (August 5 – 11, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah infrastructure and eliminated operatives of the organization as part of its continued activity against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon, in violation of the understandings of the ceasefire agreement, and against the organization's efforts to renew its military capabilities and restore its arsenal. Facilities in south Lebanon for storing engineering equipment for the restoration of capabilities were attacked and three Hezbollah operatives were eliminated, as was a senior terrorist operative from the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem reported that the organization had lost about 5,000 operatives in the campaign against Israel before the November 2024 ceasefire. In his assessment, Israel would not launch a new large-scale operation in Lebanon since the response would be missile fire into its territory; Six Lebanese army soldiers were killed in an explosion in a tunnel used for storing Hezbollah weapons near Tyre. A UNIFIL force uncovered a tunnel network with weapons in south Lebanon; The Lebanese government instructed the army to prepare a plan to disarm and dismantle all armed militias, including Hezbollah, by the end of the current year, and approved the principles of the document received from American special envoy Thomas Barrack. Hezbollah stated that it would ignore the government's decisions and warned that no one would be able to disarm the "resistance."; According to reports, Hezbollah's public health organization suspended hospitalization payments for the families of Hezbollah operatives, a consequence of its economic crisis
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Lebanese Government Decides to Disarm Hezbollah – Positions of Power Actors

On August 5, 2025, the Lebanese government instructed the army to prepare a plan to disarm all armed militias, including Hezbollah, by the end of the current year. Two days later, the government approved the principles submitted in a document by the American special envoy, Thomas Barrack, which included a timetable for disarmament. Ministers from Hezbollah and Amal left the meetings before they ended; The president of Lebanon, Joseph Aoun, and the prime minister, Nawaf Salam, noted after the government meetings that the state would implement the state's monopoly on weapons and ensure its sovereignty over its territory, despite the complexity of the task; Hezbollah made it clear that it would ignore the government's decisions and warned that no one could disarm the "resistance." The organization stated that it was not willing to discuss its weapons before state authorities took action to end the "Israeli aggression." Hezbollah and Amal were reportedly considering toppling the government in a vote of no confidence in the Lebanese Parliament; Hezbollah supporters held rallies in its strongholds across the country, while articles in Hezbollah-affiliated media accused Aoun and Salam of acting in the service of the United States and Saudi Arabia; Hezbollah's political opponents welcomed the government's decision to disarm the organization, calling it a "final decision" with which Hezbollah had to comply. They stressed that the weapons in Hezbollah's hands had only damaged Lebanon; Senior Iranian officials expressed support for Hezbollah and dismissed the decision to disarm it. In response, the Lebanese foreign ministry condemned Iran's meddling in internal Lebanese affairs, and politicians called for the expulsion of the Iranian ambassador; In ITIC assessment, the Lebanese government will continue to exert pressure on Hezbollah and try to continue dialoguing with it so that it obeys the government's decision and disarms, while the Lebanese army will continue to work with UNIFIL to dismantle Hezbollah's infrastructure in south Lebanon. However, Hezbollah will find it difficult to cooperate due to the combination of the uncompromising "resistance" ideology against Israel, the expectation of reconstruction funds from Iran, and the fear that its opponents will exploit its disarming to attack the Shi'ite community in Lebanon. As a result, it becomes increasingly likely that internal clashes will begin, which could deteriorate into armed confrontations and harm politicians leading the pro-disarmament line.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (July 30—August 6, 2025)

The IRGC spokesman reiterated his warning that if Israel attacks Iran again, the latter’s response will be harsher and broader. The Friday prayer leader in Tehran threatened that Iran would turn Tel Aviv into a ghost town; Senior Iranian regime figures exploited the first anniversary of the elimination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran to emphasize the need for continued “resistance” to Israel and harshly criticized Western countries, especially the United States, for their support for Israel; Amid efforts to disarm Hezbollah, an article in a hardline Iranian newspaper warned that Hezbollah is now capable of renewing the fighting against Israel; The Houthi military spokesman claimed responsibility for eight attacks against Israel using ballistic missiles and drones. The IDF Spokesperson announced the interception of two ballistic missiles and two drones launched from Yemen; The United States has reportedly warned the Iraqi government that it will impose sanctions on those supporting the armed militias if attacks against energy facilities in the Kurdish region continue, and that it may also attack illegal weapons depots; A Hezbollah operative responsible for directing terrorist squads in southern Syria with the aim of launching rockets into the Golan Heights was eliminated; The Islamic Resistance Front in Syria warned that any Israeli military operation in the south of the country would be considered a “declaration of war” and would be met with an immediate response.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (July 28-August 5, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah infrastructure and eliminated operatives of the organization as part of ongoing operations against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon, which violates the ceasefire agreement understandings, and against Hezbollah's efforts to increase its military capabilities and restore its arsenal, including attacking Hezbollah's largest precision missile production site in the Beqa'a Valley. The IDF reported that in the eight months since the ceasefire began in November 2024, approximately 500 attacks had been carried out in Lebanon and more than 230 commanders and terrorist operatives had been eliminated;  According to reports, Hezbollah is preparing for the possibility of renewed fighting with Israel and has begun preparing shelters in north Lebanon for displaced persons; The commander of the Lebanese army claimed that Israel's presence in south Lebanon was the only obstacle to the full deployment of Lebanese army forces; Tensions are rising in Lebanon ahead of a government meeting on the state's monopoly on weapons. The United States reportedly rejected Lebanon's demand that disarmament take place only after the cessation of Israeli attacks and the withdrawal of IDF forces. Washington has demanded that the government determine a detailed timeline for implementing "the state's monopoly on weapons." The Lebanese presidential office told Hezbollah that it had to cooperate with the state, but Hezbollah's leadership refused, claiming that the demand to disarm the organization came from Israel and they would not surrender; Kuwait added Hezbollah and the organization's financial wing to its sanctions list; A Hezbollah operative convicted of killing a UNIFIL soldier in 2022 was sentenced to death in absentia in Lebanon; The Hamas representative in Lebanon claimed the Palestinians were committed to respecting the country's sovereignty and laws.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (July 21-28, 2025)

IDF forces attacked Hezbollah facilities and eliminated terrorist operatives as part of the continuing activity against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon in violation of the ceasefire agreement understandings and against the organization's efforts to renew their arsenal and military-terrorist capabilities; Hezbollah reportedly raised its alert level and ordered its operatives to be prepared for any development; Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stated that ten thousand Lebanese soldiers were expected to deploy in the south of the country by the end of the year and that illegal weapons were being collected everywhere the forces were deployed; While in Beirut, American special envoy Thomas Barrack said the United States had no demands from Lebanon but warned that "time was running out" regarding Hezbollah's disarmament. According to reports, Barrack's meetings with the Lebanese leadership were tense and he warned that without progress, the United States would cease its involvement in Lebanon; Hezbollah denied the report that it was not willing to give up its weapons and was prepared for a confrontation with the Lebanese state. Hezbollah accused Barrack of being biased and claimed that relinquishing weapons would bring about the state's destruction; Hezbollah reportedly stopped paying university tuition for the children of the organization's shaheeds because of its economic crisis; The Lebanese army reportedly uncovered a military camp of Hamas and of the military wing of the Jama'a al-Islamiyya in the Mount Lebanon area. Both movements denied the allegations.
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