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Lebanon

Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (May 13 – 20, 2025)

The IDF launched Operation Gideon’s Chariots, a large-scale ground operation combined with aerial attacks targeting Hamas and other terrorist organizations. An assassination attempt was made on the life of Muhammad al-Sinwar, considered head of Hamas' military wing. Palestinians reported hundreds of casualties and damage to hospitals in the Gaza Strip; The Qatari prime minister announced that the indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas held in Doha had reached a dead end. Hamas continued to demand a deal involving the release of all the hostages in exchange for the Palestinian prisoners and called for American and international guarantees to end the war; Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas instructed the Fatah leadership and PLO "factions" to renew contact with Hamas and integrate it into the Palestinian political system to reach an agreement which would include restoring control of the Gaza Strip to the Palestinian Authority; One Israeli civilian was killed and a civilian and a police officer were injured in two terrorist attacks. Israeli security forces continued extensive counterterrorism operations in Judea and Samaria.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (May 12 – 19, 2025)

IDF forces continued operations targeting Hezbollah’s presence in south Lebanon, which is in violation of the ceasefire, preventing the organization from rebuilding its military capabilities. The forces eliminated Hezbollah terrorist field commanders and operatives in south Lebanon; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem called on Lebanese state institutions to increase pressure on Israel against its "ongoing aggression and violations." He also admitted that Iran had served the "resistance” and that they had benefited from it in every respect; Lebanese leaders claimed that American-led international pressure should compel Israel to withdraw from south Lebanon and halt its attacks in the country. Lebanese President Aoun said Hezbollah had to understand it had no choice but to accept the concept of the state's monopoly on weapons, but added that it had to be achieved through dialogue and not hastily, to avoid confrontation; The United States is reportedly pressuring the Lebanese government to shut down Hezbollah’s financial arm; An indictment was filed against a person affiliated with Hezbollah accused of collaborating with Israel by providing information enabling Israel to target senior Hezbollah terrorists during and after the war; Lebanon is preparing for a visit by Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas, who is expected to discuss the disarmament of armed Palestinian "factions" in the refugee camps. President Aoun questioned whether Palestinian arms were truly meant "to liberate Palestine" or to kill Palestinians and Lebanese.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (May 7-14, 2025)

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei re-emphasized the importance of the Palestinian issue for the Muslim world and called for not ignoring the “crimes of the Zionist regime.” The Iranian foreign minister emphasized in discussions with his Arab counterparts the need for cooperation between regional countries to stop Israel’s attacks in the Gaza Strip; A Hamas delegation led by the head of the movement’s Shura Council met in Doha with the head of Iran’s Strategic Council for Foreign Policy and discussed developments in the Gaza Strip; Against the backdrop of a possible Israeli military action against nuclear facilities in Iran, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards warned Israel about the consequences of such an attack; Senior Hezbollah officials reportedly asked the Iranian leadership not to leave Revolutionary Guards officers in Lebanon for fear that Israel would eliminate them; The Houthis claimed responsibility for seven attacks against Israel using ballistic missiles and drones, including the first launch toward Ramon International Airport, and threatened to continue the “air blockade” on Israel. The IDF Spokesperson confirmed three incidents of intercepting a ballistic missile and another interception of a drone. An Israeli warning was published to evacuate the three Houthi seaports; The Houthis welcomed the US decision to stop airstrikes against them, saying it was an American “failure” and an “embarrassment” for Israel. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman praised the “steadfast stance” of the Yemeni people in support of Palestinians against Israel.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (May 5 – 12, 2025)

IDF forces continued taking action against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon, which violates the ceasefire, and against the organization's efforts to renew its military capabilities. The IDF attacked a Hezbollah underground compound in the Beaufort Ridge and eliminated several Hezbollah operatives. A senior operative in Hamas' military wing in Lebanon was also eliminated; Hezbollah accused Israel of more than 3,100 “violations” since the start of the ceasefire in November 2024 and claimed 156 people had been killed. Senior Hezbollah figures criticized the government and accused it of weakness in the face of Israeli “aggression."; Senior Lebanese officials condemned the Israeli “violations” and demanded a full withdrawal of IDF forces from Lebanese territory; UNIFIL’s commander said UN forces had discovered more than 200 weapons cache sites and warned that the situation in south Lebanon remained fragile; The Lebanese foreign minister warned that Hezbollah’s stance weakened Lebanon; Senior Hezbollah figures are reportedly pressuring secretary general Na'im Qassem to hold new elections for the Shura Council and hold senior officials who failed during the war with Israel accountable for their failure; Dozens of workers at Beirut Airport were reportedly fired over suspected ties with Hezbollah, part of the government's effort to prevent arms smuggling; A senior Hamas figure in Lebanon claimed they were committed to the ceasefire and the movement had not yet been asked to hand over its weapons.
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Lebanese Positions on Disarming Hezbollah

The Lebanese leadership expressed a desire to conduct a dialogue with Hezbollah to ensure the organization’s disarmament in order to reduce the risk of bloodshed. The Lebanese army took control of a significant portion of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure south of the Litani River, while the United States increased its pressure on Lebanon to accelerate the dismantling Hezbollah’s military capabilities, threatening to allow Israel itself to take action against the organization; Hezbollah absolutely refused to give up the “resistance” against Israel, but gradually mitigated its position, claiming it was prepared to engage in dialogue with the Lebanese government to formulate a national defense strategy which would allow Hezbollah to retain its "military capabilities" alongside the country’s security forces. However, even within the Shi'ite community, voices were heard emphasizing the need to relinquish the weapons, given the blows Hezbollah had suffered during the war against Israel; As of now, the issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament is prominent in Lebanon’s public discourse, and for the first time since the organization’s founding more than four decades ago, there is an understanding that the matter is critical for the country’s future and its chances of recovery after the war with Israel. Although President Aoun and senior officials are currently proceeding cautiously, international pressure, especially from the United States and the Gulf States, is growing for Lebanon to complete Hezbollah’s disarmament quickly. Furthermore, conditioning the much-needed economic aid for Lebanon’s recovery on enforcing the state’s monopoly on weapons could place Lebanon’s political and military leadership on a direct collision course with Hezbollah and its supporters and increase internal security tensions.
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Disarming the Palestinian Factions in Lebanon

The Palestinian factions in Lebanon have maintained an armed presence in the refugee camps for decades without interference from the authorities. In recent years, the Hamas branch in Lebanon has become the most powerful military force among the factions, and its active involvement in fighting alongside Hezbollah in the latest conflict drew significant public and political attention; The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon in November 2024, which ended the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, led the Lebanese authorities to declare their willingness to institute a state monopoly of weapons throughout the country. The declaration was reinforced under the new president, Joseph Aoun, and the new government headed by Nawaf Salam; The rocket fire attacking northern Israel at the end of March 2025 and the exposure of Hamas operatives as responsible led the authorities to warn the movement not to threaten national security. Following the warning, in an unprecedented move Hamas handed the Lebanese army suspects involved in the rocket fire; At this stage, it is unclear whether Lebanese security forces intend to act militarily to collect the weapons in the country’s Palestinian refugee camps or to simply reorganize relations and increase coordination over weapons use. In ITIC assessment, a successful assertion of state authority over the Palestinian factions could set a precedent for a similar move against Hezbollah, which is considered a more complex and sensitive challenge for Lebanon. As a result, Hezbollah may attempt to prevent a forceful move by the Lebanese army against the Palestinian factions but may also assist in resolving the issue through dialogue.
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