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Lebanon

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (May 5 – 12, 2025)

IDF forces continued taking action against Hezbollah's presence in south Lebanon, which violates the ceasefire, and against the organization's efforts to renew its military capabilities. The IDF attacked a Hezbollah underground compound in the Beaufort Ridge and eliminated several Hezbollah operatives. A senior operative in Hamas' military wing in Lebanon was also eliminated; Hezbollah accused Israel of more than 3,100 “violations” since the start of the ceasefire in November 2024 and claimed 156 people had been killed. Senior Hezbollah figures criticized the government and accused it of weakness in the face of Israeli “aggression."; Senior Lebanese officials condemned the Israeli “violations” and demanded a full withdrawal of IDF forces from Lebanese territory; UNIFIL’s commander said UN forces had discovered more than 200 weapons cache sites and warned that the situation in south Lebanon remained fragile; The Lebanese foreign minister warned that Hezbollah’s stance weakened Lebanon; Senior Hezbollah figures are reportedly pressuring secretary general Na'im Qassem to hold new elections for the Shura Council and hold senior officials who failed during the war with Israel accountable for their failure; Dozens of workers at Beirut Airport were reportedly fired over suspected ties with Hezbollah, part of the government's effort to prevent arms smuggling; A senior Hamas figure in Lebanon claimed they were committed to the ceasefire and the movement had not yet been asked to hand over its weapons.
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Lebanese Positions on Disarming Hezbollah

The Lebanese leadership expressed a desire to conduct a dialogue with Hezbollah to ensure the organization’s disarmament in order to reduce the risk of bloodshed. The Lebanese army took control of a significant portion of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure south of the Litani River, while the United States increased its pressure on Lebanon to accelerate the dismantling Hezbollah’s military capabilities, threatening to allow Israel itself to take action against the organization; Hezbollah absolutely refused to give up the “resistance” against Israel, but gradually mitigated its position, claiming it was prepared to engage in dialogue with the Lebanese government to formulate a national defense strategy which would allow Hezbollah to retain its "military capabilities" alongside the country’s security forces. However, even within the Shi'ite community, voices were heard emphasizing the need to relinquish the weapons, given the blows Hezbollah had suffered during the war against Israel; As of now, the issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament is prominent in Lebanon’s public discourse, and for the first time since the organization’s founding more than four decades ago, there is an understanding that the matter is critical for the country’s future and its chances of recovery after the war with Israel. Although President Aoun and senior officials are currently proceeding cautiously, international pressure, especially from the United States and the Gulf States, is growing for Lebanon to complete Hezbollah’s disarmament quickly. Furthermore, conditioning the much-needed economic aid for Lebanon’s recovery on enforcing the state’s monopoly on weapons could place Lebanon’s political and military leadership on a direct collision course with Hezbollah and its supporters and increase internal security tensions.
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Disarming the Palestinian Factions in Lebanon

The Palestinian factions in Lebanon have maintained an armed presence in the refugee camps for decades without interference from the authorities. In recent years, the Hamas branch in Lebanon has become the most powerful military force among the factions, and its active involvement in fighting alongside Hezbollah in the latest conflict drew significant public and political attention; The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon in November 2024, which ended the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, led the Lebanese authorities to declare their willingness to institute a state monopoly of weapons throughout the country. The declaration was reinforced under the new president, Joseph Aoun, and the new government headed by Nawaf Salam; The rocket fire attacking northern Israel at the end of March 2025 and the exposure of Hamas operatives as responsible led the authorities to warn the movement not to threaten national security. Following the warning, in an unprecedented move Hamas handed the Lebanese army suspects involved in the rocket fire; At this stage, it is unclear whether Lebanese security forces intend to act militarily to collect the weapons in the country’s Palestinian refugee camps or to simply reorganize relations and increase coordination over weapons use. In ITIC assessment, a successful assertion of state authority over the Palestinian factions could set a precedent for a similar move against Hezbollah, which is considered a more complex and sensitive challenge for Lebanon. As a result, Hezbollah may attempt to prevent a forceful move by the Lebanese army against the Palestinian factions but may also assist in resolving the issue through dialogue.
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Spotlight on Syria (April 23 – May 7, 2025)

The IDF carried out aerial attacks in Syria, including near the presidential palace in Damascus, in the wake of clashes between gunmen affiliated with the Syrian regime and the Druze population. The attacks provoked condemnations from senior officials in the Syrian regime and protests against Israel in cities across Syria; Syrian foreign minister al-Shibani and government officials in Damascus denied reports that Syria was interested in joining the Abraham Accords and strengthening its relations with Israel; The Syrian regime reportedly appointed an official to be responsible for the Palestinian "factions" in the country and informed their representatives that he would supervise the weapons in their possession. Hamas is mediating between the "factions" and the Syrian regime. The secretary general of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine – General Command was detained for several hours; Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani) confirmed that Turkey and Russia had a presence in the country and reiterated his promise that Syria would not serve as a base for threats to neighboring states; Syrian Foreign Minister al-Shibani visited UN headquarters in New York for the first time, and reported that Syria was working with the international community against terrorist threats.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (April 23—May 7, 2025)

The Supreme Leader of Iran praised the Palestinian “resistance” in the Gaza Strip and declared that the unity of the Islamic nation is essential to prevent the events taking place in the Gaza Strip and Yemen; The Iranian embassy in Beirut condemned the IDF attack in the Dahiyeh of Beirut and stressed that Israel’s attacks would not prevent the Lebanese people from continuing to resist; Iran strongly condemned the continued Israeli attacks in Syria and called on the international community and the countries of the region to act to stop them. Meanwhile, the Iranian media continued to take advantage of the Israeli attacks in Syria to criticize the Syrian president for his “indifference” amid the IDF’s continued activity in his country; Iran has sent a message to the pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq, calling on them to maintain political unity ahead of the parliamentary elections expected in November 2025; The Houthis claimed responsibility for 12 attacks against Israel using ballistic missiles and drones. Most of the missiles and aircraft were intercepted, but one ballistic missile exploded in the Ben Gurion Airport area, injuring five people. Israel responded with two airstrikes against the port of Al-Hudaydah, the international airport in Sana’a, and other targets. Iran and the members of the “axis of resistance” praised the Houthis for the attack on Ben Gurion Airport, while Tehran again denied any connection to the Houthis’ activity against Israel; US President Trump announced the cessation of US attacks against the Houthis, claiming that they had agreed to halt their attacks against naval vessels. The Houthis have made it clear that they will continue their attacks against Israel until the “aggression” against the Gaza Strip stops.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (April 28 – May 5, 2025)

IDF forces continued operating to counter the presence of Hezbollah in south Lebanon in violation of the ceasefire and to thwart the organization’s renewed attempts to strengthen its military capabilities. Several Hezbollah terrorist operatives were eliminated; Hezbollah secretary general Na'im Qassem claimed that Israel had violated the ceasefire more than 3,000 times. He accused the Lebanese state institutions of failing to exert sufficient diplomatic pressure to stop the attacks but did not say Hezbollah would take action against Israel; Members of the Lebanese leadership met with the American general who headed the ceasefire monitoring committee and with his successor, noting the need to pressure Israel to stop its attacks and withdraw from the five points it holds in south Lebanon to enable the Lebanese army to complete its deployment; Senior Hezbollah figures said a dialogue on a national defense strategy could take place only after the completion of the Israeli withdrawal but continued to oppose disarming Hezbollah. Lebanese President Aoun noted that the decision regarding the state's monopoly over weapons was irreversible. The Lebanese army claimed to have dismantled more than 90% of Hezbollah’s infrastructure south of the Litani River; The Lebanese Supreme Defense Council warned Hamas against taking actions which would undermine the country's sovereignty and national security. Hamas handed over two operatives involved in firing rockets at northern Israel at the end of March 2025; For the first time since 2016, municipal elections are being held in Lebanon: candidates from Hezbollah and Amal's list won in all councils in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia, the Shi'ite suburb of southern Beirut.
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