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Lebanon

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (February 16-23, 2026)

The IDF continued attacking Hezbollah terrorist targets in south Lebanon as part of enforcing the ceasefire agreement of November 2024 and to prevent the organization's renewed military build-up, possibly in preparation for attacks on the State of Israel. At least eight Hezbollah operatives from the organization's rocket array were eliminated in attacks on Hezbollah headquarters in the Beqa'a Valley; Given the growing tension between the United States and Iran, Hezbollah continued to express full support for Tehran and said a military confrontation would be met with "significant deterrence." According to reports, Iranian military officers were managing Hezbollah's preparations for a possible confrontation with Israel; Hezbollah's secretary general said the organization did not want to initiate a war, however they would not disarm since such a move served Israeli interests. He also said he was confident the organization would overcome the difficulties and claimed the right to "resist"; Hezbollah reportedly agreed in principle to a new Lebanese security agreement with Israel, according to which the organization would not attack Israel and would accept supervision of its weapons north of the Litani River, in exchange for the cessation of Israeli attacks, withdrawal of IDF forces and release of Lebanese prisoners; The Lebanese government approved the army's plan to implement the second phase of disarming Hezbollah north of the Litani River within four to eight months, without a specific timetable; Hezbollah ministers did not object; The IDF attacked a Hamas headquarters in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp in Sidon; Hamas confirmed the death of two operatives.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (February 11-18, 2026)

The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council met in Qatar with a Hamas delegation and discussed developments in the Palestinian arena; Iran’s ambassador to Beirut held farewell meetings with senior Lebanese officials ahead of the conclusion of his mission in Lebanon. He stated that the suspension of direct flights between Iran and Lebanon harms Lebanon; Iran’s permanent representative to the UN again criticized Israel’s ongoing military activity in southern Syria; The Iranian foreign minister discussed regional developments and bilateral relations with his Iraqi counterpart; Reports indicate closer ties between the Houthis and Iran and al-Qaeda branches in Yemen and Somalia, including the smuggling of weapons and joint training.
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Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah and Lebanon (February 9-16, 2026)

In south Lebanon the IDF continued attacking Hezbollah targets and eliminated two of the organization's terrorist operatives, part of enforcing the ceasefire agreement from November 2024 and preventing Hezbollah's renewed military-terrorist build-up. Several terrorist operatives from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) were eliminated in the Beqa'a Valley near the border with Syria; Hezbollah continued criticizing the Lebanese regime because of the ongoing Israeli attacks and the plan to disarm the organization. The organization's secretary general, Na'im Qassem, called on the government not to yield to Western pressure and to rely on the capabilities of the "resistance."; Lebanon's prime minister and army commander held meetings with foreign officials in preparation for the international conference to support the Lebanese security forces which will be held in Paris in early March 2026; The commander of the United States Central Command praised the Lebanese army for exposing another giant Hezbollah tunnel in south Lebanon; Hezbollah launched its campaign for the general parliamentary elections to be held this coming spring and agreed with the Amal Movement on full coordination; Hezbollah's secretary general announced that the organization would pay rent for three months for anyone whose house was damaged in the fighting with Israel, however residents in Shi'ite areas protested there was no long-term commitment and raised claims of unequal distribution of payments; The United States Treasury imposed sanctions on a Lebanese company converting Hezbollah's gold reserves into liquid assets for the organization's reconstruction.
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The Reorganization of Hezbollah Leadership and the Resignation of Wafiq Safa

The Israel-Hezbollah War ended in November 2024, and since then Hezbollah has been reorganizing to repair the damage it suffered, including to the top leadership, and to adapt to Na'im Qassem as the new secretary general; Alongside reports of disputes and power struggles between the "pragmatic" figures led by Qassem, and the proponents of an extremist approach, senior organization figures claimed that Hezbollah had recovered and rebuilt the leadership structure, adapting it to the continued Israeli targeted killings as part of enforcement actions, and preparations for a new war; According to reports, at the beginning of February 2026, Hezbollah's leadership accepted the resignation of Wafiq Safa, who had headed the Coordination and Liaison Unit since 1987 and was considered close to Hassan Nasrallah and one of the most prominent and influential figures in the organization's top leadership. Media commentaries opined that he resigned because of his disputes with Qassem, but also noted that the move was part of the secretary general's efforts to reorganize Hezbollah's hierarchy by tightening his control over the organization's media, and political and "security" forces, while relying on figures loyal to himself and with lower media prominence, in order to reduce the risk of being targeted by Israel; In ITIC assessment, the termination of Wafiq Safa's role was intended to stabilize Hezbollah's leadership, reduce the vulnerability of senior figures and consolidate the secretary general's control after the profound shock undergone by the organization. However, concentrating authority in the secretary general's office and weakening veteran power centers may awake latent frictions and undermine internal balances. The success of the move will be partially measured by the organization's ability to preserve cohesion, prevent further intelligence leaks and redefine Hezbollah's relations with the Lebanese state without relinquishing its core principles.
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Rising Tensions between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Government

Since the ceasefire agreement went into effect at the end of November 2024, Hezbollah has criticized Lebanese government institutions, claiming they are not doing enough to stop Israeli "aggression" and "violations" of the agreement; In recent weeks, Hezbollah has become increasingly angry at the intention of the government and the army to continue disarmament north of the Litani River and because a civilian representative was appointed to the talks with Israel. Statements by President Aoun and other Lebanese officials regarding the end of the role of the "resistance" have also angered Hezbollah; Hezbollah, led by secretary general Na'im Qassem, has escalated his rhetoric against the president and the government and accused state institutions of failing to safeguard Lebanon's sovereignty and the Shi'ite community, while stating that the "resistance" will not surrender and is prepared for confrontation. Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets joined the campaign against the government and questioned the legitimacy of President Aoun, accusing him of acting in the interests of the United States and Israel; Attempts were made to reduce tensions, including meetings between President Aoun and his aides and members of the Hezbollah faction in the Lebanese Parliament; In ITIC assessment, Lebanon is in transition from managed political tension to an open and prolonged struggle. As long as no significant regional change occurs, especially regarding Iran, in all probably friction and tension will continue. The government will proceed cautiously in extending its authority north of the Litani River, and Hezbollah will block measures perceived as attacking the core of its power, without letting the situation deteriorate into a broad internal Lebanese crisis. 
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (February 4-11, 2026)

The Iranian foreign minister accused Israel, in a speech at the Al Jazeera Forum in Qatar, of committing “war crimes” in the Gaza Strip. He called for practical action by the international community against Israel and for coordination among Islamic countries, Arab states, and Global South countries in support of the Palestinians; At least six senior Iranian diplomats reportedly used their passports to transfer hundreds of millions of dollars to Hezbollah. One of the diplomats also accompanied the Iranian foreign minister during his recent visit to Beirut in January 2026; The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson accused Israel of using “toxic and chemical substances” in southern Lebanon; In a letter of condolence following the death of the father of former Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, a senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader emphasized the importance of the “resistance” in Lebanon and Iran’s continued support for it; The Iranian foreign minister stated that Iran supports Hezbollah but does not need it to defend itself against the United States and Israel; The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council met, during a visit to Oman, with the spokesman of the Houthis in Yemen; It was reported that the Houthis are in “strategic isolation” as a result of contacts between the United States and Iran and the weakening of Hezbollah, which had supported them over the years; IDF forces exposed a weapons depot belonging to al-Jama'a al-Islamiyya in southern Syria.
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