Lebanon

Spotlight on Terrorism: Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria (September 23 – 30 ,2024)

This past week, the IDF attacked thousands of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, including advanced weapons hidden in civilian locations. High-ranking Hezbollah terrorists were killed in targeted attacks in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia in Beirut, including Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, and Ali Karki, commander of the "southern front."; This past week Hezbollah claimed responsibility for 77 attacks on military and civilian targets in Israel, including the first launches of surface-to-surface missiles at the greater Tel Aviv and Jerusalem areas. Several people were injured by debris falling from interceptions and property was damaged; Hezbollah announced the death of ten senior figures and operatives in IDF attacks in Lebanon, with Nasrallah heading the list. However, according to estimates, the number of dead was higher and Hezbollah has announced only the most senior dead. In addition, 61 deaths of terrorist operatives from other organizations were reported, including the Hamas commander in Lebanon and 50 Amal operatives; Na'im Qassem, Hezbollah deputy secretary general, delivered the first speech by a senior member of the organization since the death of Nasrallah, promising that Hezbollah would continue its "support" for the Gaza Strip and the "defense" of Lebanon. He claimed a new secretary general would be elected in the near future; The authorities in Lebanon reported at least 1,640 people killed since the fighting began on October 8, 2023, more than 1,000 since September 16, 2024. Najib Mikati, prime minister of the Lebanese interim government, estimated that the number of displaced people in Lebanon could reach one million. The UN said that 100,000 people had crossed the border into Syria; Syria: The IDF eliminated the head of the Hamas network in southern Syria. According to reports, Israeli aircraft attacked along the Syria-Lebanon border to prevent the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah. Read more...

Israeli Attack in Beirut Eliminates Hassan Nasrallah

On September 27, 2024, the IDF eliminated Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, in an attack on the organization's headquarters under a residential building in the southern suburb of Beirut. Other senior Hezbollah terrorists were killed, including Ali Karaki, commander of the "southern front."; Hezbollah confirmed the death of Nasrallah, nicknamed "Master of the Resistance," calling him "one of its greatest leaders," and its leadership promised to continue the jihad in support of the Gaza Strip and in the "defense of Lebanon". Meanwhile, Hezbollah continued attacking Israel, mostly civilian targets, but did not link the attacks to Nasrallah's death. At this stage, Hezbollah continues attacking and expanding its firing range; The Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets reported that Hezbollah would not stop attacking Israel as part of the "front supporting the Gaza Strip"; Senior Iranian figures condemned the killing of Nasrallah, saying they stood with Hezbollah and Lebanon, but did not threaten a direct military response, although they are probably considering one. Other organizations in the "resistance axis" expressed condolences on Nasrallah's death and praised his role in "the struggle" against Israel. The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq intensified their attacks on Israel; Lebanese politicians eulogized Nasrallah. Opponents of Hezbollah in Lebanon and across the Middle East took to the social media to rejoice; In ITIC assessment, eliminating Nasrallah and the Hezbollah senior military leadership in recent weeks, along with the IDF's ongoing and increasing damage to the organization's chain of command and its military and strategic capabilities throughout Lebanon, has damaged Hezbollah's ability to carry out intensive attacks on Israel, at least in the short term. However, field-level commanders will try to attack more distant targets in Israeli territory, including the greater Tel Aviv area and strategic sites; Nasrallah's most probable successor is Hashem Safi al-Din, the chairman of Hezbollah's Executive Council, who is close to Iran. Apparently Hezbollah will reorganize its ranks with Iranian coordination and assistance and will continue fighting against Israel, partly for survival, and will continue to connect its fighting to the fighting in the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah may also seek to intensify the fighting and expand its firing range after Nasrallah's funeral to exact a price from Israel and be able to present a "victory narrative," and may attack an Israeli target abroad; In ITIC assessment, any Hezbollah decision regarding a coordinated and extensive response, independently or in coordination with the other "resistance axis" organizations, depends on Iran, which has to process events and prepare accordingly, while trying to avoid a regional war; In ITIC assessment, Nasrallah's absence, after 32 years as leader of Hezbollah, can have far-reaching consequences throughout the Middle East. For Lebanon, it can mean an opportunity for the government and military to reinstate their authority (with international assistance) in south Lebanon. It may also have an impact on Lebanon's political system, after Hezbollah prevented the country from electing a new president for more than a year. In the Gaza Strip, it might influence Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip, to reach an agreement for a ceasefire and release the hostages. Read more...

Operation Northern Arrows: Reactions in Lebanon and Insights

On September 23, 2024, the IDF launched the Operation Northern Arrows and attacked thousands of Hezbollah terrorist targets in Lebanon from the air throughout the country, for the most part sites where weapons were hidden in civilian buildings and facilities. Senior Hezbollah commanders were attacked in the Dahiyeh al-Janoubia, the southern suburb of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold; Hezbollah has carried out dozens of attacks on civilian and military targets in Israel, extending the range of its rocket and missile fire and using new weapons. For the first time, Hezbollah justified its attacks as "defending Lebanon" while continuing to "support" the Gaza Strip, its claim since the beginning of the fighting. Hezbollah attacked the Tel Aviv area with a ballistic missile for the first time; the missile was intercepted. Hezbollah reported that seven of its operatives were killed since the operation began, including Ibrahim Qubaisi, the head of Hezbollah's missile and rocket system. The pro-Iranian militias in Iraq also attacked Israel; Lebanese authorities reported that hundreds of Lebanese had died and hundreds of thousands had left their homes in south Lebanon and the Lebanon Valley after the IDF's threats to attack buildings where Hezbollah's weapons were stored. Hezbollah was criticized on the social media and accused of destroying Lebanon; In ITIC assessment, as long as no ceasefire has been reached, Hezbollah will continue its efforts to exert pressure on Israel to stop the attacks in Lebanon by attacking Israeli military and civilian targets, even at distances far from the border. Hezbollah is also determined to exhaust Israel as long as a ceasefire has not been reached in the Gaza Strip. It may also target Gush Dan again in response to the continuing targeted attacks on its senior terrorist operatives. However, in ITIC assessment, at this stage neither Hezbollah nor Iran wants to wage a total war against Israel, and Iran is working through diplomatic channels to bring an end to the fighting in Lebanon. If the IDF initiates a land maneuver Hezbollah may reconsider its options and escalate its attacks, along with the other organizations belonging to the "resistance axis." Read more...

Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (September 18 – 25 , 2024)

Iran strongly condemned Israel’s operations in Lebanon, including the detonation of the communications devices, the killing of Ibrahim Aqil, and the extensive airstrikes. However, at this stage, Iran refrains from committing to direct military involvement in the campaign alongside Hezbollah, focusing instead on diplomatic efforts. These efforts are being led by the president and foreign minister, who are actively participating in the UN General Assembly deliberations.; Additional Iranian threats to avenge Ismail Haniyeh’s death; Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that if the Islamic nation used its internal power, it could remove Israel from the heart of the Muslim community. Iranian President Pezeshkian used his speech at the UN General Assembly to accuse Israel of “genocide” and “crimes against humanity"; The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for 13 drone and cruise missile attacks against targets in Israel this past week, five of them in one day. The Israeli Air Force fighter jets and air defense units intercepted most of the launches. Three drones exploded in the Golan Heights and the Arava. There were no casualties; The pro-Iranian Shiite militias also announced that they would assist Hezbollah with a shipment of fighters and weapons in the event of an Israeli land invasion of southern Lebanon; A senior security advisor to Kata'ib Hezbollah in Iraq was killed in an attack attributed to Israel in Syria; Senior Houthi officials threatened that they would continue launching rockets into Israeli territory, saying they are prepared for a long confrontation. Read more...

Reactions to the Elimination of Ibrahim Aqil and the Top Command of the Radwan Force

On September 20, 2024, the IDF eliminated Ibrahim Aqil, the head of Hezbollah's military operations and commander of the elite Radwan Force, in an airstrike in the southern suburb of Beirut. The attack killed at least 14 other Radwan Force commanders, including Ahmed Mahmoud Wahhabi, the head of military training and part of the Force's top command. According to published information, they were holding a meeting to plan a ground attack on Israeli territory. According to the Lebanese ministry of health at least 50 people were killed in the attack; Hezbollah confirmed the death of Aqil, aka "the great jihad commander," the second senior Hezbollah official granted the title since the current conflict with Israel began in October 2023; Senior Hezbollah figures threatened "an appropriate retaliation" and added that Hezbollah would not stop its "support" for the Gaza Strip. Since Aqil's death Hezbollah has claimed responsibility for more than 20 attacks on targets in Israel, including expanding range of its attacks to the Jezreel Valley and the Haifa area. According to Hezbollah, the attacks were not retaliation for the death of Aqil; Iran and the "resistance axis" organizations condemned the Israeli attack on Beirut; In ITIC assessment, the attack on Aqil and the Radwan Force's top command, in addition to the exploding pagers and walkie-talkies, surprised Hezbollah and are regarded as Israel's deviation from the [Hezbollah-dictated] "rules of conflict" in place since October 8, 2023, and a crossing of red lines. In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah can be expected to react strongly, both by further extending the range of its attacks on Israeli territory and by the use of new weapons, and possibly even an attack on a sensitive military target. However, Hezbollah still does not want a total war, especially in view of the significant damage to its most senior military figures, and will try to make Israel return to the "equations" it has been trying to dictate since the beginning of the conflict, while continuing its "support" for the Gaza Strip. Nasrallah will probably also consider Iran's position regarding the nature and strength of the response, partly because at this time Iran also does not want a regional war which could also include a direct confrontation with Israel and the United States. In ITIC assessment, the other "resistance axis" organizations can be expected to increase their attempts to attack Israel in support of Hezbollah. Read more...

Hezbollah Communications Devices Explode

On September 17, 2024, thousands of pagers used by Hezbollah operatives for internal communications exploded, killing 12 people and injuring thousands in Lebanon and Syria. The next day, Hezbollah walkie-talkies exploded throughout Lebanon and according to reports, at least 25 people were killed and hundreds were injured; Hezbollah announced that at least 38 operatives were killed within 48 hours, most of them by the explosions. The organization claimed Israel was responsible and threatened a harsh response, even though senior figures continued to refrain from calling for a total war. A commentator affiliated with Hezbollah warned that Israel had launched a "war of extermination" and a "battle without borders" by attacking "civilians"; The Iranian ambassador to Beirut was injured in a pager explosion and was taken to Tehran for medical treatment. Senior officials in Iran accused Israel of a "terrorist attack" and said that they reserved the right to respond to the attack on the ambassador. Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other "resistance axis" organizations condemned Israel and expressed support for Hezbollah and Lebanon. In ITIC assessment, the extensive damage to Hezbollah's communication systems will force the organization to rethink Israel's internal security and intelligence capabilities. In an attempt to understand how Israel successfully penetrated its intelligence and to what extent, the organization will investigate, and will decide how to respond. In the short term, Hezbollah's ability to deploy its forces at the tactical and operational level could be damaged. However, Hezbollah still states that it does not intend to start a total war against Israel. In ITIC assessment, Hezbollah can be expected to react strongly, both to preserve the "balance of deterrence" it has achieved so far with Israel, and given the harm to civilians, to preserve its image as "Lebanon's defender." Read more...

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Lebanon

Lebanon is a small country with a population of only about 4.1 million. Situated on the Mediterranean Sea, Lebanon borders on Israel in the south and Syria in the east and north. It gained its independence from France on November 22, 1943. Due to Lebanon’s varied ethnic composition, its history is rife with schisms, conflicts and civil wars based on sectarian allegiances. Since its independence, Lebanon has had a unique political system of ethnic distribution with a parliamentary democracy based on ethnic-sectarian-religious representation. The most important offices are divided among the various religious groups, in accordance with the national charter of 1943.

Lebanon’s social complexity, the weakness of its central government, and the social and economic gaps between the various ethnic groups led to the rise of many armed sectarian-political militias, some of which turned to terrorism. The most prominent Shiite terrorist organization in Lebanon is Hezbollah, which was founded in the summer of 1982 during the First Lebanon War. It is not only a terrorist organization which owes its allegiance to the Iranian regime, it has also been incorporated into the Lebanese political system.

Lebanon has traditionally served as an arena for foreign forces, both Middle Eastern and international. In the past, Syria’s intervention in Lebanon was most conspicuous. Today, Iran’s intervention is most conspicuous: it provides Hezbollah in Lebanon with weapons, ammunition, financing and military training. The border between Israel and Lebanon has undergone some tense periods and several confrontations where IDF forces entered the Lebanese territory. Since the Second Lebanon War (2006), the border between Israel and Lebanon has been relatively quiet, a situation exploited by Hezbollah to advance its military buildup and intensely intervene in the civil war in Syria, under Iranian direction.