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Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s New Leader: From Jihadist to Stateman?

On December 8, 2024, rebels led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa, aka Abu Muhammad al-Julani, captured Damascus and overthrew the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after a 12-day military campaign, and al-Sharaa became the de facto ruler of Syria; Ahmed al-Sharaa's ideology changed throughout his life, transforming him from a youth raised in an upper-middle class family in Syria to a jihadist activist in the ranks of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Iraq, and eventually to one of the prominent leaders of the rebellion against the Assad regime in Syria. The transformations were reflected in his positions regarding the concept of jihad, his public disassociation from al-Qaeda and ISIS, and changes in his attire and image both in Syria and toward the international community; This study deals with al-Sharaa, his life, the events that influenced him, and his beliefs and ideology as they evolved over more than two decades of activity within Salafi-jihadi movements and the struggle against the Syrian regime; In ITIC assessment, the ambivalence in al-Sharaa's positions and the changes in his conduct over the years were intended to ensure the survival of his organization but also indicated his ideological flexibility and political pragmatism. He is likely to continue presenting himself as a pragmatic figure to secure popular and international support for his emerging rule. However, it remains to be seen whether the ideological positions he developed as a Salafi-jihadi leader will be manifested in his role as the political leader of Syria, including his previously expressed aspiration to lead jihad to "liberate al-Aqsa."
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Spotlight on Syria (Following the Fall of the Assad Regime) December 23 , 2024 – 1 January, 2025

The new leadership in Syria is consolidating its rule: it was agreed that all armed organizations would be dismantled and subordinated to the new Ministry of Defense, and a defense minister and general intelligence chief were appointed. Senior military ranks were awarded to commanders from Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and other organizations which had contributed to the overthrow of the Assad regime, including foreign jihadist fighters. Syria's de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani), met with foreign delegations which arrived in Damascus. He said presidential elections would be held in four years and reiterated his position that Syria would not pose a threat to any country. Violent clashes erupted between the new regime's security forces and Alawite residents over allegations that an Islamic extremist group had set fire to a shrine. The Damascus government pointed to Iran as instigating the riots with the objective of creating chaos in Syria. According to reports, IDF forces continued operating in villages within the buffer zone in the Golan Heights, and five people were injured by gunfire during a demonstration. The new governor of Damascus said Syria did not seek to be an enemy of Israel. The editor of the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese daily newspaper admitted that Syria was no longer part of the struggle against Israel and was not expected to express solidarity with "the resistance." Reports indicated that Hamas was attempting to establish ties with the new Syrian regime and was preparing for a visit to Damascus. The United States and France attacked ISIS targets in Syria.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (December 24 – 31, 2024)

IDF forces continued extensive operations in the northern, central and southern Gaza Strip, eliminating dozens of terrorists and detaining hundreds more during operations at the hospital in Beit Lahia. Palestinian terrorists fired rockets from the Gaza Strip at Jerusalem. Two IDF officers and two soldiers were killed in the fighting; Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) figures continued to accuse Israel of making demands which complicate the completion of the negotiations on a ceasefire and exchange of "prisoners"; A senior journalist affiliated with Hamas' military wing accused the movement of being complicit in a nakba in northern Gaza; The PIJ deputy secretary general accused the Mahmoud Abbas, PA chairman, of rejecting proposals for managing the Gaza Strip after the war;  Israel, Judea and Samaria: An Israeli civilian was stabbed to death by a Palestinian in Herzliya. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations in Judea and Samaria; PA security forces continued their operations against armed terrorists in the Jenin refugee camp. Three members of the security forces were killed, and several civilians, including a journalist, reportedly died. The spokesperson for the security forces accused Hamas of incitement and compared the movement to ISIS.
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Spotlight on Iran and the Shiite Axis (December 18 – 25, 2024)

Senior Iranian figures continued to express recognition of the damage to the “axis of resistance” due to the revolution in Syria and the overthrow of the Assad regime, while demonstrating confidence in the ability of the axis to continue operating amid the new circumstances, especially due to the ability of Hezbollah and the other organizations to produce weapons on their own. Iran is reportedly considering smuggling weapons to Hezbollah via flights to Lebanon; The Iranian government spokeswoman said that consultations are underway on reopening the embassy in Damascus. The new Syrian regime denied having ties with Iran and announced its intention to sue Tehran for its damage to Syria; The Iranian president and foreign minister met with their counterparts from Egypt and Turkey and called for exerting pressure on Israel to stop the war in the Gaza Strip and the attacks in Lebanon and Syria; A commander of the armed factions in Jenin admitted that they were receiving assistance from Iran. A terrorist operative in Tulkarm who operated with Iranian funding was eliminated; The Houthis claimed responsibility for nine attacks against Israel using drones and ballistic missiles, including a joint attack with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. Two missiles caused damage in central Israel, injuring 16 people. The Israeli Air Force attacked Houthi targets in Yemen, for the first time in the Sana’a area. 
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Spotlight on Syria (Following the Toppling of the Syrian Regime) December 16 – 23 , 2024

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) began to consolidate its rule in Syria with the appointment of defense and foreign ministers as well as the appointment of commanders of organizations that helped topple the Assad regime to the positions of provincial governors; HTS leader Ahmad al-Shara (Abu Mohammad al-Julani) held meetings with senior foreign officials who arrived in Damascus, including the Turkish foreign minister. The American assistant secretary of state praised al-Shara and announced the removal of the bounty placed on his head; A meeting of senior Druze leaders with al-Shara drew criticism in the community and warnings against cooperation with the new government; It was claimed that the Syrian regime closed the airspace to Iranian planes that made their way to Lebanon; A Hezbollah member of parliament warned that if Israel engaged in military action against Syria, Hezbollah would help Damascus. The prime minister of Lebanon’s interim government instructed the official institutions to collaborate with HTS on security matters; There were reports of continued Israeli airstrikes throughout Syria and the advance of IDF forces in southern Syria. Al-Shara stressed that the removal of Hezbollah and the pro-Iranian militias from Syria had eliminated the justification for Israeli activity against Syria and called for the involvement of the international community; Turkey is reportedly concentrating forces on the border with Syria in preparation for a large-scale operation against the Kurdish militia; The United States carried out airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria and eliminated a senior commander in the Deir ez-Zor area.
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The Power Groups in Syria after the Fall of the Assad Regime

On November 27, 2024, armed groups opposing the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, led by the Islamist-jihadist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, launched Operation Deterrence of Aggression against Syrian army forces and their allies in northwest Syria. Other groups, sponsored by Turkey, initiated the Operation Dawn of Liberation in the Aleppo area, while another coalition of rebel organizations took control of southern Syria. On December 8, 2024, the rebels occupied Damascus and overthrew the Assad regime; The campaign was managed by three umbrella groups: the al-Fatah al-Mubin Operations Room led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the pro-Turkish Syrian National Army and the Southern Operations Room. Each was made up of organizations, units and political entities with ideological, religious and ethnic differences and varying interests; Also to be taken into account are the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a militia led by Kurdish forces and supported by the United States, whose objective is to strengthen Kurdish control in northern Syria and which is currently in conflict with the new power structures in Syria; The factions which have taken control in Syria have yet to issue official statements regarding Israel, even in light of IDF strikes on strategic facilities across Syria and the seizure of the buffer zone in the Golan Heights; Despite the cooperation of revolutionary forces in overthrowing Assad's regime and statements from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani) about his desire to establish a government representing all Syrians, the large number of groups and conflicting interests are likely to lead to internal conflicts and exacerbate the chaos within Syria. However, if the parties learn from mistakes made in other parts of the Middle East after the overthrow of authoritarian regimes, such as Iraq and Libya, and manage to find an inclusive formula which meets the interests of the various groups and communities, in ITIC assessment, in the long term opportunities exist for stabilization in Syria.
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