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Spotlight on Syria (Following the Toppling of the Syrian Regime) January 1 – 8, 2025

Between October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah first attacked Israel "to support" the Gaza Strip during the Hamas terrorist attack and massacre which began the previous day, and the ceasefire which went into effect on November 27, 2024, the organization used a wide range of weapons to attack Israeli civilian and military targets. It used various types of rockets, ballistic missiles, UAVs, anti-tank missiles, artillery shells and surface-to-air missiles; Hezbollah deployed its forces in such a way that each escalation saw the introduction of new weapons intended to increase the range, effectiveness and intensity of its attacks on Israel; The vast majority of the weapons were manufactured in Iran and Russia and smuggled to Hezbollah via direct flights from Iran or convoys passing through Syrian territory. the organization also produced its own weapons; This study reviews the weapons used by Hezbollah beginning on October 8, 2023; The variety of weapons used by Hezbollah reflected the organization's advanced military capabilities acquired in the years between the Second Lebanon War in 2006 and the start of the fighting in October 2023, as well as its operational capabilities against Israel, both near the border and in its ability to threaten targets deep within Israel. Despite the extensive damage inflicted by the IDF on Hezbollah's weapons capabilities during the current conflict, in ITIC assessment the organization still possesses capabilities and knowledge which will enable it to continue posing a threat unless it is completely disarmed throughout Lebanon.
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Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s New Leader: From Jihadist to Stateman?

On December 8, 2024, rebels led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa, aka Abu Muhammad al-Julani, captured Damascus and overthrew the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after a 12-day military campaign, and al-Sharaa became the de facto ruler of Syria; Ahmed al-Sharaa's ideology changed throughout his life, transforming him from a youth raised in an upper-middle class family in Syria to a jihadist activist in the ranks of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Iraq, and eventually to one of the prominent leaders of the rebellion against the Assad regime in Syria. The transformations were reflected in his positions regarding the concept of jihad, his public disassociation from al-Qaeda and ISIS, and changes in his attire and image both in Syria and toward the international community; This study deals with al-Sharaa, his life, the events that influenced him, and his beliefs and ideology as they evolved over more than two decades of activity within Salafi-jihadi movements and the struggle against the Syrian regime; In ITIC assessment, the ambivalence in al-Sharaa's positions and the changes in his conduct over the years were intended to ensure the survival of his organization but also indicated his ideological flexibility and political pragmatism. He is likely to continue presenting himself as a pragmatic figure to secure popular and international support for his emerging rule. However, it remains to be seen whether the ideological positions he developed as a Salafi-jihadi leader will be manifested in his role as the political leader of Syria, including his previously expressed aspiration to lead jihad to "liberate al-Aqsa."
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Spotlight on Syria (Following the Fall of the Assad Regime) December 23 , 2024 – 1 January, 2025

The new leadership in Syria is consolidating its rule: it was agreed that all armed organizations would be dismantled and subordinated to the new Ministry of Defense, and a defense minister and general intelligence chief were appointed. Senior military ranks were awarded to commanders from Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and other organizations which had contributed to the overthrow of the Assad regime, including foreign jihadist fighters. Syria's de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Muhammad al-Julani), met with foreign delegations which arrived in Damascus. He said presidential elections would be held in four years and reiterated his position that Syria would not pose a threat to any country. Violent clashes erupted between the new regime's security forces and Alawite residents over allegations that an Islamic extremist group had set fire to a shrine. The Damascus government pointed to Iran as instigating the riots with the objective of creating chaos in Syria. According to reports, IDF forces continued operating in villages within the buffer zone in the Golan Heights, and five people were injured by gunfire during a demonstration. The new governor of Damascus said Syria did not seek to be an enemy of Israel. The editor of the Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese daily newspaper admitted that Syria was no longer part of the struggle against Israel and was not expected to express solidarity with "the resistance." Reports indicated that Hamas was attempting to establish ties with the new Syrian regime and was preparing for a visit to Damascus. The United States and France attacked ISIS targets in Syria.
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Spotlight on the Israel-Palestinian Conflict (December 24 – 31, 2024)

IDF forces continued extensive operations in the northern, central and southern Gaza Strip, eliminating dozens of terrorists and detaining hundreds more during operations at the hospital in Beit Lahia. Palestinian terrorists fired rockets from the Gaza Strip at Jerusalem. Two IDF officers and two soldiers were killed in the fighting; Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) figures continued to accuse Israel of making demands which complicate the completion of the negotiations on a ceasefire and exchange of "prisoners"; A senior journalist affiliated with Hamas' military wing accused the movement of being complicit in a nakba in northern Gaza; The PIJ deputy secretary general accused the Mahmoud Abbas, PA chairman, of rejecting proposals for managing the Gaza Strip after the war;  Israel, Judea and Samaria: An Israeli civilian was stabbed to death by a Palestinian in Herzliya. Israeli security forces continued counterterrorism operations in Judea and Samaria; PA security forces continued their operations against armed terrorists in the Jenin refugee camp. Three members of the security forces were killed, and several civilians, including a journalist, reportedly died. The spokesperson for the security forces accused Hamas of incitement and compared the movement to ISIS.
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